Know What's Happening in American Stocks
Know What's Happening in American Stocks
S&P 500 may find a 6,000 floor by May, analyst says
Analyst Mark Hulbert predicts the S&P 500 could settle around 6,000 by May, marking the low point of the current market correction. He cautions that the brief rally on March 31 and April 1 was typical of weak markets and may not indicate a lasting recovery.
The episode dissected Nvidia's post‑earnings sell‑off, debating whether the drop reflects a broader warning about AI‑driven capex sustainability or simply a volatility crush from massive call‑option exposure ahead of expiration. Hosts highlighted divergent market moves, with large‑cap AI names falling while equal‑weight and small‑cap stocks rose, and noted sectoral rebounds such as Dell and Netflix. A deep dive followed on rare‑earth supply constraints, especially yttrium and scandium, as China curtails exports, raising concerns for high‑tech and aerospace applications. The discussion wrapped with macro updates on FX, inflation data, and geopolitical tensions affecting trade and climate policy.
Equity Inflows cooling Money Market inflows surge NAAIM lowest since May 2025 AAII Bull-Bear very tight spread Finally seeing some key elements needed in order to break the chop and have incremental buyers Been noting since Dec. that it would be hard for markets to...
U.S. equity markets opened with a sharp selloff, pulling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq toward monthly losses while the Dow remains on track for a February gain. Despite the decline, about 70% of S&P constituents closed higher, indicating broad participation....
The tariff refund issue is fun to follow. But it doesn't matter much for the macroeconomy. Business investment determined more by cost of capital than cash availability. Keynesian multiplier very low on one-time transfers to businesses. And debt impact large...
Something is happening in bond markets. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have fallen to the lowest this year, while credit spreads are widening to the highest this year.
The Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) slipped 1.2% on Tuesday, dragged down by a 3% decline in semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, software equities posted a solid bid, narrowing the valuation gap between software and semis to its widest since Deepseek’s surge in January 2025 and...
Be a Fly on the Wall of Wall Street’s Best Morning Process https://t.co/bh1gg4mzGh via @hedgeye
Good morning. Mixed markets around the World. $spx futures -17 $spy got rejected at $693 to break $690 to see $684 area. We’ll see if they holds, or not. Let’s end the week making the right decisions This range...
Tesla has sued the California Department of Motor Vehicles after the agency labeled the automaker a false advertiser for its Autopilot and Full‑Self Driving branding. Tesla argues the DMV offered no consumer‑witness evidence and relied on a single academic testimony,...
Reiterating Short #Bag7 with OCT 2025 having big echoes of Q4 1999 "Last 3 months have been the worst period to own $SPX relative to its equal weight index since 2001" @t1alpha https://t.co/AgkFgy0aqK
In line with our narrowing USD Signal, Global FX Vol continues to fade here https://t.co/sY7hmVcxe3
Nvidia reported a 73% jump in fiscal Q4 revenue to $68.13 billion and projected FY Q1 revenue of $78 billion, comfortably beating analyst estimates. CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC that market fears of AI agents cannibalizing enterprise software are misplaced, arguing that...
The S&P 500 is less than 2% from its all-time high. The Nasdaq 100 is down nearly 5%. The NYSE FANG Index is down 17%. Three indexes. Three very different pictures. Full breakdown with charts: https://t.co/1Skwzjqna3 https://t.co/NAO3m5uBUh
The DOJ probe of the Federal Reserve is playing out behind closed doors The Fed, in sealed proceedings, is asking a judge to quash the subpoenas, which could reduce or eliminate its obligation to respond via @cryanbarber @sgurman https://t.co/HvnC5W8ImQ
Nvidia reported fourth‑quarter results that dramatically outpaced Wall Street expectations, posting $30.1 billion in revenue and GAAP earnings per share of $2.70. The numbers represent a 45% jump in data‑center sales, propelled by soaring demand for its AI‑focused GPUs. The earnings...
Back to the numbers... Stock futures and $MSFT (good job @hedgeye for highlighting Mr. Softee's share price weakness over the last week while the shows were talking about its "value") move lower after the close after $XYZ job reduction...
MARKET RECAP 📉 What a wild and crazy day, S&P 500 fell once again and is on pace for worst month since April 2025 😳 What the heck is going on?!? Let’s talk about it 🗣️
Last night's report discussed six reasons for why Software might finally start to gain traction, but this could also happen at the expense of Semis. The false breakout was very much apparent this morning & while broader mkt breadth...
The S&P 500 is now on pace for its WORST month since April 2025 😳 Volatility continues to be the main storyline of 2026 🎢
$SPY has defended this uptrend line since the start of February. Seems to have worked like magic as support for the last few weeks, but hasn't been strong enough to push the index to retest all time high. Maybe in...
CAN $CRM FOLLOW $WDAY? AND WHY MEMORY WON’T BREAK $WDAY delivered a textbook Red Dog Reversal-style move, reclaiming key levels and turning into a strong tactical trade. Now the focus shifts to whether $CRM can follow with a similar move if...
Agree, Citrini got a massive debate going and increased subs, but. $IGV, $QQQ up big in past two days. And ETF flows are pouring into US equity ETFs (as usual). It only reinforces my view that doomerism is what sells...
Viral Blog Bottoms? If you look at the software vols, we obviously still see some very high IV Ranks but those should come down today now that some earnings have passed. We'd argue lower IVs in this space generates a bullish...
Short Thought: Nvidia Ratchets Up the Risk Michael BurryFeb 26 Welcome to one short thought. Just going through the Nvidia numbers. I would like to highlight for you one specific aspect of their financials that I find troubling. The 2026 Form 10K...
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +53.00 (0.21%) 25,672.50 DowJones +307.77 (+0.63%) 49,482.27 Nasdaq +288.40 (+1.26%) 23,152.08 India Vix -0.6875 (-4.86%) 13.4625 S&P 500 +56.07 (+0.81%) 6,946.14
$CRM - Despite the post-mkt selling, CRM looks poised to bounce in the weeks ahead & i suspect Dip-buyers can finally position long in Software for some mean reversion vs market and also vs. Semis @IBDinvestors @marketsurge NEW Beta...
There Are Better Things To Trade Than Nvidia also my short price targets on $NVDA https://t.co/LGkqEyi3XF
Congratulations to the team at Netflix for coming in second. If the history of bidding wars holds, they will end up as the real winner.
$SPX - Yesterday's gap was filled. Still trading above the 100 day MA. As long as it's above the 100 DMA there's no reason for the bulls to be worried. And even if it closes below the 100 DMA we...
$CRM highs, call fly trade up big and similar to WDAY gets a positive reaction
$nvda failed fast. At lead u had $193.50 to use to adjust as it hit $184.58 pretty fast. https://t.co/YM6ciJGW9t
I posted this yesterday with regard to $NVDA (when we shorted it in the after hours).... @dougkass
$NVDA down hard because every Hedge Fund on the planet knew the quarter was going to be great and they bought it ahead of that
CHART OF THE DAY: 86% Of The Names We Own Are Beating SPY https://t.co/aAYyRsV4YB via @hedgeye
$CRM Look at the headwinds of stock based compensation, merger & acquisition costs. Then look at margin projections and scale problems. @dougkass @SeabreezeLP @jimcramer @SquawkCNBC @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @gnoble79 @KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeDJ @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @business @CNBCFastMoney @HalftimeReport @carlquintanilla @ScottWapnerCNBC @SaraEisen @SullyCNBC...
Nasdaq is contorting its own index rules to court the IPOs of SpaceX et al, and @thekrazykobra brings the 🔥 https://t.co/ExpsatLZ6h https://t.co/VjWaHmMJYd
“.. a stock selloff that has wiped out almost 90% of the firm’s market value since the September high as the broader Trump digital-asset trade misfires.” @business https://t.co/abCpOHoz5E https://t.co/8xBLvDYzwC
Look forward to discussing Nvidia’s robust earnings and guidance on @BloombergTV with @lisaabramowicz1 @FerroTV @annmarie at 7:15 am
$SNOW revenue, RPO and guidance came in ahead of consensus and the WSJ headline says company benefiting from AI adoption. This is the point we've been making for several weeks... some infrastructure software businesses are beneficiaries of AI. https://t.co/dX1lJsYfye
$NVDA Three takeaways on Pressure Points: 1. The stock being down 1% underscores that investors’ long term growth concerns remain. 2. The fundamentals and outlook came in better than elevated whisper numbers. 3. Most importantly, the guidance reinforces just how early we are...
The Mag-7 used to trade at a 100% premium over the rest of the S&P. It's now collapsed to a 10-year low. Do you realize what's happening?
The final question of the call turned into a 7-minute Jensen manifesto on how growth can continue. $NVDA My take: It passed the sniff test. Here’s the play-by-play: Goldman asked if Jensen still feels good about growth accelerating beyond the April quarter. Jensen...
FWIW - After the kind of prolonged coil that we've seen with Nvidia since the summer, you would expect to see a dramatic move up or down as the tug of war between the bulls and bears is resolved. We didn't...
Small caps just hit record highs. While everyone chases mega-cap AI, leadership may already be rotating. That’s not a squeeze. It’s a signal. @JDHatfield_ICAP @InfraCap explain why it matters: https://t.co/11ZhJg1jL3
We are in Day 2 of this toga party in oversold tech bounce chases - if NVDA doesn't muck it up.
$NVDA is now up only 0.6%, compared to 2.5% when the call began. One reason for the drift: the call is missing the usual "early innings" table pounding message. Jensen is leading with data over his typical bombardment of bullish...
Jensen takes the mic for three minutes: OpenAI: Confirmed they are nearing an expanded partnership (following reports of a $30B+ equity stake). Meta: Says things are "going well," though avoided addressing Meta’s recent pivot to AMD for certain workloads. Then turned it over...
Nvidia $NVDA unchanged since October with hard assets ripping higher - up 1% after the close, Lord pump master is losing his touch :) https://t.co/417bLFxptb
The top 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are 50% more volatile than the S&P 500 itself right now. Important for risk... but more important for alpha right now. https://t.co/yqBR2QU8nK
Breadth looks set to contract near-term per the A-D line, but that's not necessarily bearish. It just puts more pressure on the megacaps to stage a relative recovery #fairleadstrategies https://t.co/bbTJhh0egy
