Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
Will Kevin Warsh Trumpify the Federal Reserve?
Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and close Trump ally, is poised to join the Fed board as the new chair seeks a more aggressive stance on interest rates. Warsh has publicly echoed President Trump’s criticism of high rates and has hinted at a shift toward tighter monetary policy. While the president’s rhetoric suggests a "regime change," institutional safeguards and the Fed’s long‑standing independence make a dramatic overhaul unlikely. The episode highlights the tension between political pressure and central‑bank autonomy.
Germany’s Debt Spiral Deepens as Berlin Plans €2.7 Trillion in Bonds by 2029
Germany’s finance ministry unveiled a draft budget that would push visible sovereign debt to €2.7 trillion (about $2.9 tn) by 2029, with nearly one‑third of the €630 billion current spending financed by borrowing. The Federal Court of Auditors and the Ifo Institute warned...
EU Approves $105 Billion Loan to Ukraine, Deepening Financial Commitment
The European Union formally approved a €90 billion ($105 billion) loan package for Ukraine, the bloc's largest single‑year financial aid to the war‑torn country. The decision came after Hungary lifted its veto, allowing the 20th round of EU sanctions against Russia to...
G‑7 Central Banks Hold Rates Steady, Keeping Bond Yields on Edge
The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada are expected to leave policy rates unchanged this week, a stance that will keep short‑term bond yields flat while investors watch for inflationary pressure...
TreasuryDirect, Ditch the ‘Gift Box’ and Raise the I Bond Purchase Cap
TreasuryDirect has sent a new email urging holders of Series I Savings Bonds in the gift‑box program to deliver their bonds promptly. The notice clarifies that while only one gift bond can be delivered at a time, recipients can receive unlimited...
Kevin Warsh’s Senate Hearing Raises Treasury Market Concerns Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s pick to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, is slated for a Senate Banking Committee hearing amid worries that his views could unsettle Treasury markets. Economists expect the Fed to keep rates on hold...
Starmer Credibility Dip Fuels Gilt Short‑sell Recommendation
Starmer faces credibility hit after Mandelson appointment; civil service strained, governance risk ahead of local elections may lift GBP and gilt volatility. Trading insight: sell short gilts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Yield Curve Signals Growth Concerns Amid New Inflation Data
Treasury yields are shifting as traders digest fresh inflation data and Fed signals. The 10-year is moving on growth worries. Keep an eye on the curve for clues on what’s next. 📉💰 BondMarket
ECB Likely to Hold Rate at 2% as Energy Price Risks Linger
The European Central Bank is expected to keep its key policy rate at 2% at the April meeting, after a temporary dip in oil prices following an Iran war ceasefire eased immediate inflation pressure. Analysts say the pause reflects lingering...
Hyperscalers Issue $110bn Debt, Exceeding Forecasts
BofA: Hyperscalers have issued $110bn in debt so far in 2026, sharply above forecasts https://t.co/aIc0cIvDl0
Downgrade Exposes Weaknesses in China’s Credit Ratings
Caixin: "A sudden downgrade of a state-backed financing vehicle in eastern China is exposing weaknesses in the country’s credit rating industry, raising concerns over hidden risks in the local government debt market." https://t.co/HjgmNQTIdy
Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged at March 2026 Meeting, Sets Stage for April Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee left the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% during its March 18‑19, 2026 meeting. The decision follows three rate cuts in 2024 and three more in 2025, and it positions the Fed for a...
Money‑Market Accounts Yield 3.90% as Savings Rates Slip to 0.38%, Pressuring Bond Investors
Money‑market accounts are delivering a top rate of 3.90% APY, far above the FDIC‑reported 0.38% average on traditional savings accounts. The gap highlights a cash‑rate squeeze that is pushing investors toward short‑term bond and money‑market fund alternatives.
Chinese State Banks Boost Dollar Holdings, Fuel US Asset Demand
Gonna keep repeating this until it registers -- The PBOC may or may not be reducing its real Treasury holdings; it could just be moving out of US custodians But the state banks are clearly adding to their dollar portfolios, and thus...
Wealth Advisors Urge Late‑Career Investors to Shift Toward Bonds as Yields Hit 4.3%
Top wealth‑management experts are urging investors approaching retirement to reduce equity exposure and increase holdings of high‑quality bonds. With 10‑year Treasury yields climbing to about 4.3%, the move is framed as a hedge against sequence risk and a way to...
Mortgage Rates Slip to 6.23% on 30‑year Fixed, Expanding Homebuyer Options
National mortgage rates fell for the third straight week, with the average 30‑year fixed rate sliding to 6.23% and the 15‑year fixed to 5.58%. Analysts attribute the decline to softer Treasury yields, a cooling labor market and easing inflation pressures,...
UBS Projects Fed to Trim Rates by 50 Bps by Year-End as Inflation and Labor Slacken
UBS says the Federal Reserve is on track to deliver an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts before the end of 2024. The outlook rests on March data showing slower core inflation and weakening labor demand, which UBS believes...
Treasury Swaps Shield GCC, Preventing UST Yield Spike
An important point of view (on Treasury-supplied USD swaps for GCC countries) comes from our very own, @GraphCall: https://t.co/RHN9TFGR1f This exchange of currency - without selling held collateral - avoids a GCC-forced dump of UST to get liquidity while oil revenue sales...
The Credit-Equity Divergence: What 285 Basis Points Is Telling You That 7,000 Isn't
The ICE BofA US High‑Yield Master II option‑adjusted spread fell to 285 basis points on April 21, a level last seen in June 2007 before the Great Financial Crisis. At the same time, the S&P 500 surged past the 7,000 mark, closing the week at...
Fed Set to Lead Uneasy G-7 With Rates Kept on Hold This Week
The Federal Reserve will join other G7 central banks in keeping interest rates unchanged this week, maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.25‑5.50%. Policymakers cite softened inflation but warn that renewed energy price pressures from the Iran‑Israel conflict could reignite...
Oracle Needed the World’s Biggest Bond Fund to Finance the World’s Biggest Data Centre
Oracle closed a $16.3 billion financing for a Michigan data‑centre campus, the largest single‑facility technology debt package ever assembled. PIMCO anchored roughly $10 billion of the bond tranche after U.S. banks withdrew, citing doubts about AI infrastructure demand. The deal is part...
Massachusetts House Clears $4.58 Bn Transportation Bond Package
The Massachusetts House voted 155‑0 to approve a $4.58 bn municipal‑bond package for transportation projects, including $300 m for local roads and a $200 m MBTA locomotive program. The bill also reauthorizes $3.18 bn from the 2022 bond bill, expanding the state’s municipal‑bond supply...
Japan's Debt Trap Leaves Yen as Sole Release Valve
Japan is trapped. ~230% debt/GDP. BOJ owns 50%+ of the JGB market. Deeply negative real rates. The Yen is weakening despite rising yields because the market knows they can't meaningfully hike without triggering a fiscal crisis. The currency is the...
BoE's Rapid Bond Unwind Fuels UK's Higher Yields
The UK isn't the fiscal basket case it's made out to be. During the LDI crisis in 2022, the Bank of England kicked asset managers to the curb. It's also unwound its gov't bond holdings way faster than other central...
China Unveils $233 Billion Domestic Demand Plan to Sustain Growth
Beijing announced a dedicated 2026‑2030 action plan to expand domestic demand, backed by ultra‑long treasury bonds and a consumer‑goods trade‑in scheme that drove new‑car sales above 1.6 trillion yuan ($233 billion) in 2025. The move signals a structural shift in China’s growth...
Macron Calls EU Debt Rollover Essential, Not Optional
Macron says it would be ‘silly’ not to roll over EU Covid-era debt https://t.co/7Nctd2XiKo via @Newsbaum @NikasSotiris https://t.co/62p9hqman4
Prism Advisors Takes $15.4 M Stake in Eaton Vance Short‑Duration Income ETF
Prism Advisors, Inc. initiated a $15.37 million position in the Eaton Vance Short‑Duration Income ETF (EVSD), buying 298,979 shares that now represent 4.1% of its reportable assets. The move highlights a growing appetite for short‑duration, high‑yield bond exposure as investors navigate...
PHK: NAV Trending Slightly Higher But Still Not A Buy
PIMCO High Income Fund (PHK) remains on hold as its net asset value edges higher but still lags behind robust growth expectations. The fund trades at a 2.64% premium to NAV, a level below its long‑term average, reflecting investor caution...
Multisector Bond ETF FUSI Gets 5-Star Rating From Morningstar
American Century’s Multisector Floating Income ETF (FUSI) received a 5‑star rating from Morningstar, reflecting its strong risk‑adjusted performance. The actively managed fund returned almost 6% over the past three years and posted a 5.4% 12‑month distribution rate as of March...
A Credit Getting Better While the Market Digests the Iran Conflict
The credit metrics of an integrated energy major show leverage comparable to peers, record production, superior reserve replacement, and positive free cash flow each quarter since late 2023. Its 2033 senior notes trade wider than comparable bonds because of a...
How Japan’s Bond Market Affects Your Portfolio And Global Markets
Japan’s government bond market, long the world’s low‑rate anchor, is moving toward normalization as the Bank of Japan lifts yields after years of negative rates. Higher JGB yields will reduce Japanese investors’ appetite for foreign assets, especially U.S. Treasuries, and...
Russia's Central Bank Cuts Benchmark Rate to 14.5% in Eighth Straight Move
The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 14.50%, marking the eighth successive reduction aimed at containing rising inflation. The decision, announced on April 24, 2026, underscores the central...
EU's €660 Billion AccelerateEU Plan Triggers Wave of Investment‑Banking Deals
The European Commission announced the AccelerateEU package, calling for €660 billion ($711 billion) of annual clean‑energy investment through 2030. The policy, prompted by a €24 billion ($25.6 billion) surge in import costs, is expected to generate a flood of green‑bond issuance, project‑finance mandates and...
All Quiet on the Long-Bond Front. How Long Can This Last?
The U.S. 30‑year Treasury yield has been unusually steady since March 29, trading in an 8.2‑basis‑point band between 4.858% and 4.940%, even as oil prices swung more than 30% and equities experienced sharp moves. Analysts attribute the calm to market uncertainty...
Global Rates: Central Banks Likely to Wait-and-See Against a Backdrop of Ongoing Middle-East Uncertainty
The episode examines upcoming policy meetings of the Fed, ECB, and BoE against the backdrop of the Middle‑East conflict and rising energy prices. Analysts attribute the US rate rise to solid consumption data and a dovish‑leaning Fed nominee, Kevin Warsh,...
FedWatch Shows 84% Chance of 2026 Rate Cut
FedWatch now pricing 84% odds of a rate cut in 2026. I am old enough to remember when the market was pricing in 0% in March, and I won't be surprised when this goes back to zero. Time will tell.
MTP's Issues $386 Million in Cell Tower ABS, Its First Public Deal
MTP ABS Funding launched its inaugural public securitization, issuing $386 million of asset‑backed securities backed by 861 cellular tower sites. The pool, managed by Tower Point Capital, includes fee‑owned, leasehold and easement sites and supports 1,084 leases from 83 tenants, generating...
Toronto Hydro Corporation: Credit Rating Report
On April 17, 2026, Morningstar DBRS reaffirmed Toronto Hydro Corporation’s issuer rating and its senior unsecured debentures and medium‑term notes at “A.” The agency also confirmed the utility’s commercial paper rating at R‑1 (low), indicating strong short‑term creditworthiness. All rating trends...
Morningstar DBRS Finalizes Provisional Credit Ratings on Capital Street Master Trust Series 2026-1
Morningstar DBRS finalized provisional credit ratings for Capital Street Master Trust Series 2026‑1 Asset‑Backed Notes. The Class A notes, backed by a $450 million revolving pool of subscription loans, received an AAA (sf) rating, while the $25 million Class B notes were rated AA...
Munis Close Quiet Ahead of Fed Week
Municipal bonds closed flat on Friday while U.S. Treasuries edged higher and equity markets finished mixed. The Justice Department wrapped up its criminal investigation into outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, removing a lingering uncertainty that had stalled Kevin Warsh’s confirmation....
Fed Expected to Hold Rates at 3.5%-3.75% as Iran War and Trade Shocks Keep Policy on Sidelines
The Federal Reserve is poised to leave its policy rate unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% at the April 29 meeting, citing persistent inflation, soaring oil prices from the Iran conflict and lingering trade‑war pressures. A Justice Department decision to drop...
Deephaven Residential Mortgage Trust 2026-CES1: Presale Report
Morningstar DBRS has issued provisional credit ratings for the Deephaven Residential Mortgage Trust 2026‑CES1 series, covering eight distinct classes of mortgage‑backed notes. The three most senior classes (A‑1, A‑1A, A‑1B) received a (P) AAA rating, while the next tier (A‑2) was...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Grand Duchy of Luxembourg at AAA, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Luxembourg’s long‑term foreign and local‑currency sovereign rating at AAA and its short‑term rating at R‑1 (high), with a stable trend. The rating reflects strong public finances, low debt (27% of GDP) and a sizable stock of government...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Grand Duchy of Luxembourg at AAA, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Luxembourg’s long‑term foreign and local sovereign ratings at AAA and its short‑term ratings at R‑1 (high) on April 24, 2026. All four ratings—foreign and local, long‑ and short‑term—remain on a Stable trend. The agency’s EU‑based analyst team...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Czech Republic at AA, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed the Czech Republic’s long‑term sovereign rating at AA and its short‑term rating at R‑1 (high), keeping the trend stable. The agency cites a solid 2.2% GDP growth outlook through 2027, a modest fiscal deficit of 2.1% of...
Redeem NAV, Buy Discounted Public BDC: Simple Arbitrage
Redeeming a nontraded BDC at NAV and buying the corresponding public one at a discount. Funny WSJ is calling this an "arbitrage."
Market Starts to Stabilize Heading Into May
The municipal bond market is showing signs of stabilization as May begins, driven by easing Middle East tensions and declining rate volatility. Analysts note that cash balances remain sizable, supporting investor confidence. New‑issue activity is robust, with roughly $7.2 billion slated...
Global Bonds Set for Worst Week in a Month as U.S.-Iran Risks Rise
Global bond markets are set for their worst week in a month as heightened U.S.-Iran tensions push yields higher across major economies. Two‑year U.S. Treasury yields climbed to 3.81%, up 11 basis points, while the UK’s two‑year benchmark rose 26...
Moody's Revises Washington State's Outlook to Negative
Moody's kept Washington State’s Aaa issuer rating but changed its outlook from stable to negative, citing funding uncertainties and a pending legal challenge to the new millionaire’s tax. The downgrade reflects growing reliance on one‑time budget fixes, projected narrowing of...
AA Financial Adds $7.8 M of Dimensional Global Ex‑US Bond ETF to Portfolio
AA Financial Advisors, LLC disclosed a new $7.81 million position in Dimensional Global ex‑US Core Fixed Income ETF (DFGX), acquiring 147,515 shares that now represent about 1.1% of its reportable AUM. The move, alongside an $8.3 million stake in Dimensional Global Core...