Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
T‑Mobile delivered an 8% jump in 2025 service revenue to $71.3 billion, while core adjusted EBITDA rose 7% to $33.9 billion and free cash flow hit $18.0 billion. The carrier added 3.3 million post‑paid phones and 7.8 million total post‑paid lines, keeping churn under 1% and boosting ARPU. Its low‑ and mid‑band spectrum, especially the 2.5 GHz “Goldilocks” band, underpins a network rated best in speed and quality by multiple firms. Despite a flat $88.5 billion debt load, the debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio sits at 2.8× and is projected to improve as earnings grow.
⚠️China is indeed DUMPING US Treasuries: China’s holdings of US government bonds dropped -$75.5 BILLION in 2025, to $683.5 billion, the lowest since September 2008, the Financial Crisis. Since the 2013 peak, holdings have fallen -$633.2 BILLION.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
Will the Gold and Silver Crash Bring Back Treasuries as the Risk-Off Trade of Choice? Read here: https://www.leadlagreport.com/p/will-the-gold-and-silver-crash-bring
DoubleLine’s Monthly Market Commentary delivers a concise, multi‑asset review for investors, advisers and institutions. Each edition synthesizes recent moves in fixed income, equities, credit and commodities while tying them to macroeconomic data and central‑bank actions. The report also breaks down...
Many calling/hoping for a crash in private credit. While loan performance has mostly been ok, secondary prices tell a different story. A crash has already happened in the listed BDC market, with NAV discounts previously only seen during Covid and the GFC,...
$TLT - Closed the month above the yearly pivot at 88.18. The next upside target is the 1st yearly resistance at 93.07. The 2nd yearly resistance is 98.98. It looks bullish at the moment but you never know how high...
Capital Group Core Plus Income ETF (CGCP) retains a ‘Buy’ rating, delivering a 5% yield and out‑performing major passive bond funds AGG and BND by 62 basis points over the past two years. The fund’s portfolio is weighted toward investment‑grade...
Why did rates and bond yields drop today despite a hot inflation report? #Labor over #inflation. #mortgagerates #realestate #chartdaddy
10yr yield down 34bps in less than 4 weeks @stockcharts Will rates drop on Monday? #Iran https://t.co/0jT2TsHb42
Government‑sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pushed their combined retained portfolio to a multiyear high of $278.45 billion in January, up from $271.69 billion the month before. Fannie’s retained assets rose to $141.64 billion, while Freddie’s mortgage‑backed securities holdings increased to $49.46 billion despite...
The slow dance with the 10-year yield and mortgage rates has been happening for decades. You just add the mortgage spread variable here, too https://t.co/gavjysTwDz
Bond bulls that were celebrating 10y UST yields dropping <4% on Friday waking up Saturday morning to reports that the Strait of Hormuz is possibly being closed 👇 https://t.co/pg9o9TPdO5
The 10‑year versus 3‑month Treasury spread has been compressing sharply, as high‑frequency data show a pronounced narrowing. Analysts note that the traditional term premium calculation omits heightened default risk, which is evident in rising U.S. Treasury CDS spreads. When inflation...
Key takeaways from Druckenmiller - Sees potential for higher long rates thanks to productivity growth - Out of the AI trade at this point - What he learnt from Soros was sizing - Visualizes the future 18-24 months out - Sells if valuation becomes...
SCMP: "Global debt climbed to a record high in 2025, rising at the fastest pace since the pandemic, with China and the United States accounting for a large share of the increase, according to a new report." https://t.co/GSQFwnXnb0
The author finally built a CD ladder using Fidelity’s automated tool, opting for brokered certificates of deposit to achieve safety and flexibility. By allocating $100,000 into five $20,000 CDs spanning one‑ to five‑year maturities, the ladder can roll over automatically...
NES Fircroft Bondco AS released its audited FY25 annual results on 27 February 2026. The company directed investors to its investor‑relations website for the full report and to Oslo Børs NewsWeb for additional details. The filing satisfies Oslo Stock Exchange...
On February 6, 2026 Larson Financial Group LLC disclosed a $3.33 million purchase of 61,408 shares of the JPMorgan Active Bond ETF (JBND), raising its stake to 1.09 % of its 13F assets. The addition increased the fund’s quarter‑end value by $3.27 million...
Goldman Sachs’ asset‑management arm reported a fourth‑quarter redemption rate of 3.5%, well under the 5%+ seen at peer private‑credit funds. The firm highlighted December inflows that were 11% above its year‑to‑date average, indicating continued investor appetite. Goldman also disclosed that...
The Tribal Tax and Investment Reform Act of 2026 aims to eliminate a tax‑code provision that blocks tribes from issuing private‑activity bonds for non‑essential projects. By granting tribes the same bond‑issuing powers as states, the bill opens a vast municipal...
S&P Global Ratings upgraded Guam's general‑obligation rating to BB from BB‑minus, also raising its business‑privilege‑tax and Section 30 bonds to BB‑plus and its certificates of participation to BB‑minus, all with a positive outlook. The upgrade reflects stronger operating performance, rising revenues,...
The article reflects on the historic reversal of power between bond and equity traders, noting how equities eclipsed fixed‑income revenue after the 1994 bond market collapse. It highlights the cultural divide that still separates the two desks, with bond traders...
In this episode, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chaudhia discuss European rate markets, focusing on euro‑area bond issuance, German duration outlook, and UK political developments. They assess the limited near‑term impact of proposed EU defence‑related Eurobonds, maintaining a neutral stance on...
Bill Campbell argues that deglobalization is creating a secular convergence between emerging‑market and developed‑market sovereign debt. While investors remain fixated on U.S. policy, structural shifts have strengthened EM fiscal positions and left DM yields underpriced. This mispricing opens a yield‑enhancing,...
Global hedge funds are redirecting capital into Australian government bonds as AI‑driven equity valuations lose steam. Inflows to Australian bond funds topped AUD 4 billion in 2025, the strongest in four years, driven by the country’s 4.7% 10‑year yield—the highest among developed...
Scott @ScottWapnerCNBC @HalftimeReport kindly forward this to Slink, @saraeisen (who has expressed the view that inflation is declining) and your panelists who mostly insist as part of their bullish stance on equities that inflation has been conquered. From Peter Boockvar...
Sri Lanka’s DFCC Bank has issued its inaugural LKR 3 billion blue bond and secured a dual listing on the NSE International Exchange (NIX) at GIFT City, marking the first blue bond to trade within India’s IFSC jurisdiction. The bond, originally listed...
February 27, 2026 📊 Insight: PPI at 8:30 = inflation read for producers. Cooler print could push yields lower and support growth/tech. Hot number likely pressures rates higher and weighs on high-multiple names. Watch $DXY and 10Y reaction first 5–10 mins. Economic...
After the White House confirmed that Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac would increase their retained MBS by $200B, the 'spread'—which had already been compressing—slipped sub 200 bps for the first time in more than 3 years Today is first +200 bps spread since...
Apollo Global Management has taken a significant write‑down on its flagship credit fund as loan‑level stress surfaces across its portfolio. The move mirrors similar distress signals from KKR’s FSK fund and Blackstone’s private‑credit vehicle, which also marked down troubled loans....
The noise around incoming credit crisis is picking up significantly today .. look APO, KRE, KKR etc
Pretty remarkable that the “we’re raising half the money via equity” improvement in Oracle’s 5Y CDS completely reversed (and then some) so quickly https://t.co/E8Qzqv4pMx
KKR’s publicly traded credit vehicle, FS KKR Capital Corp, dropped 15% after reporting a surge in troubled loans and a cut to its dividend. The $13 billion portfolio, dominated by private‑equity‑backed mid‑market loans, is seeing rising defaults and mark‑to‑market losses, especially...
The PPI is not falling, it has become sticky. It means rates stay higher. That will slow things down. Thus bond yields are falling. Makes sense? God knows https://t.co/XxE0jqRJ3L
"Kevin Warsh Isn’t Crazy, the Fed’s Big Balance Sheet Is" The obvious path to shrink the Fed's balance sheet is to go back to a corridor system. It worked for over 100 years as @josephsternberg points out. The problem: the establishment...
State‑owned Bank of Baroda announced a green infrastructure bond issue of up to ₹10,000 crore, with a base size of ₹5,000 crore and a green‑shoe option for an additional ₹5,000 crore. The seven‑year bonds will mature on March 5 2033 and are rated AAA with...
@jimcramer I dont understand your response to the inflation print. It is not positive. And couldnt the short term strength in the 10 year (something you just mentioned) be a flight to quality with rising credit conerns and...
With all the chatter about AI disruption, I would have expected lower breakeven inflation to be driving the fall in nominal Treasury yields, since AI is a deflationary shock. But that's not what's happening at all. It's real yields that...
DoubleLine’s investment platform is steered by Jeffrey Gundlach, its CEO and CIO, whose reputation as the “New Bond King” and multiple industry accolades have cemented the firm’s fixed‑income credibility. Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman, a CFA charterholder with a quantitative finance...
Something is happening in bond markets. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have fallen to the lowest this year, while credit spreads are widening to the highest this year.
Friday: Equity futures lower again, treasury yields down by 2-3 bps with ten-year yield dipping below 4%. Dollar softer. PPI due out today.
Senators Catherine Cortez Masto (D‑NV) and Todd Young (R‑IN) introduced the Municipal Investment and Neighborhood Transformation (MINT) Act, restoring a 2008 authority that lets Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) members issue tax‑exempt bonds for community‑development projects. The bill expands the...
Bloomberg is partnering with Kaiko to embed the newswire’s licensed financial data directly onto blockchain platforms, tackling the fragmented information problem in tokenized markets. The collaboration targets tokenized U.S. Treasury and repo products on the permissioned Canton Network, offering a...
City Council approved up to $1.4 billion in revenue bonds to fund Austin‑Bergstrom International Airport’s expansion. The bond issuance includes a $1.05 billion Series B tranche subject to the alternative minimum tax and a $350 million non‑AMT Series A tranche, targeting roughly 75% of a...
S&P Global Ratings lowered the outlook on San Juan Cruise Port LLC's senior debt to negative, keeping the BBB‑minus rating but flagging heightened risk. The downgrade affects about $160.3 million of bonds issued by AFICA, which are not guaranteed by the...
The University of Chicago’s Center for Municipal Finance released new data showing AI tools are rapidly entering the municipal bond market, giving well‑capitalized banks, advisors and law firms a distinct edge. Regulators, led by the MSRB, are scrutinizing whether AI...
S&P Global downgraded Service Properties Trust (SVC) to B‑ from B, citing $2 billion of debt maturing over the next two years. Roughly 40% of the REIT's capital structure faces imminent repayment, raising liquidity and covenant concerns. The company sold 112...
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
Quick proof of theory: MTD return as of y'days close has a -41% correlation with today's return. Statistically significant relationship at the 0.01% level. https://t.co/5nNOjJXagQ
Month end rebalancing has slight fixed income SELLING after today's move. That's rare for Feb since new 10yr and 30yr UST issuance usually leads to buying for index rebalancing. It's really all about the equity underperformance MTD. https://t.co/JSSOj5jEOD
