Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
The UK Treasury released its Debt Management Report for fiscal year 2026‑27, detailing the government’s financing requirements and the instruments to be used. The paper defines the remits of the Debt Management Office and National Savings & Investments, including cash‑management responsibilities. It provides estimates of total borrowing needed and outlines the mix of gilts, Treasury bills, and other securities. The report was published on 3 March 2026.
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on...
Bond Volatility winners $TW $MKTX also always a good market hedge / indicator of trouble coming
The U.S. dollar is strengthening across major G10 pairs as the Middle East conflict fuels risk aversion, pushing the euro, yen, and sterling lower. Emerging market currencies such as the peso, yuan and real also slide, while equity markets suffer...
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
Term premia should reflect the hedging qualities of government bonds. If we are going to keep getting negative supply shocks - which reduce equities and raise yields, creating a positive return correlation - term premia need to be a lot...
Zacks Investment Research highlights three top‑ranked diversified bond mutual funds—DWS Short Duration, Goldman Sachs Dynamic Bond, and iShares U.S. Intermediate Credit Bond Index Fund—each holding a Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy. These funds provide investors with broad sector exposure, high...
The Dollar is rallying sharply. When this kind of Dollar strength happens, risk of disorderly market conditions and problems in the US Treasury market rise, because the highly leveraged basis trade can get hit as EM central banks sell their...
Just in: S&P Global Ratings placed all its ratings on global diversified media company PSKY, including the 'BB+' issuer credit rating and our issue-level ratings on its debt, on CreditWatch with negative implications
Kraft Fondene’s high‑yield funds posted double‑digit returns in 2025 despite a market shift toward tighter spreads and lower dispersion. Leveraging a strong 2024 portfolio, the team rotated out of over‑compressed positions such as Heimstaden Bostad and reduced exposure to subordinated...
U.S. Treasury yields slipped across the curve for the week ending February 27, 2026. The 30‑year note fell 0.08 percentage points, while the benchmark 10‑year yield dropped 0.11 points to 3.97%. The 3‑year Treasury rate held at 3.39%, indicating modest...
UK inflation fell to a ten‑month low in January, reviving hopes of a Bank of England rate cut in March. However, gilt yields surged, with five‑year yields up 19 basis points, ten‑year up 14 basis points and two‑year up 12...
Municipal bonds outperformed a broad U.S. Treasury sell‑off on Monday as geopolitical tension over the U.S.–Iran conflict heightened oil prices above $70 a barrel. The two‑year muni‑UST ratio sat near 58‑61%, while Treasury yields rose 7‑11 basis points across the...
Invesco Bloomberg Enhanced Fallen Angels ETF (IFLN) has been relaunched in an existing open‑end fund shell, effectively resetting its strategy to focus on "fallen angels"—high‑yield bonds that have slipped to BB or lower. The fund now holds roughly 81% BB‑rated...
Operation Epic Fury, the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, is driving heightened volatility across global markets. Oil and natural‑gas prices have surged, prompting a risk‑off shift in equities and signaling inflation concerns in bond yields. Municipal bond investors face uncertain supply‑demand...
On February 11, 2026 ISDA and the Association of Securities and Intermediaries in Financial Markets (ASIFMA) sent a joint letter to the Reserve Bank of India requesting clarification on the RBI’s 2025 Master Direction for Rupee Interest Rate Derivatives. The...
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, prompting the dollar index to climb and Treasury 10‑year yields to rise about nine basis points. Higher yields reflect tighter monetary expectations, while the 10‑year TIPS also edged up six...
Angela Kukoda, the 2026 chair of the National Federation of Municipal Analysts (NFMA), announced a slate of initiatives aimed at modernizing the organization and deepening member value. NFMA will launch a comprehensive membership survey, release two white papers on collateral...
Fiber provider Fidium launched a $664.6 million asset‑backed securities program, issuing three tranches (A‑2, B, C) slated to close on March 31. The trust holds conduits, cables, equipment and contracts covering about 351,000 subscribers across eight states, with Maine, New Hampshire and Texas...
The U.S.–Israel air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 have heightened geopolitical risk, creating a fluid credit environment that could swing from rapid de‑escalation to a protracted regional war. DoubleLine’s Global Sovereign Debt team entered the episode with a defensive posture,...
Philippine Treasury bill yields rose for the first time in seven weeks as investors priced in higher inflation expectations and geopolitical tension. The Bureau of the Treasury auctioned P27 billion of T‑bills, well below the typical P37.8 billion raised earlier this year....
Mortgage rates slipped back above the 6% threshold after the Iran attack, with the 30‑year fixed climbing to 6.12%—a 13‑basis‑point jump. Ten‑year Treasury yields rose nine basis points, and mortgage‑backed‑security prices fell, feeding the rate increase. Simultaneously, oil prices spiked...
'For now, though, this serves as another warning sign to US authorities that their haven status is in peril'. I don't think this is any more right now than it was a year ago in other circumstances, or before that....
Oil jumping to 8-9% gains this afternoon.. gasoline futures up 12 cents. US stocks ~unch with the 10yr 3bps off the HoD.. now near 4.04% https://t.co/XkTx1P5k8G
JPMorgan’s global head of credit trading, Sanjay Jhamna, says generative AI will overhaul credit trading by efficiently processing the asset class’s massive unstructured data. He described credit markets as the last frontier for automation, noting that conventional AI models have...
BACK TO A 6-HANDLE The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.12% Same day last year: 6.74% ------------------ 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.06% Spread today: 206 bps
$TNX Monthly. Another bounce off 4% (40 on this chart) for Rates on 10-Year Note. Long-term continues multi-year narrowing triangle. https://t.co/gUtiLgqcs9
The Vermont Bond Bank has overhauled its general‑obligation bond indenture for the first time in nearly four decades, moving from a reserve‑based to a cash‑flow model. The new structure creates three lien tiers—Legacy, Community Revenue and Enhanced Community Revenue—backed by...
10-Year US Treasury Yield Flipflops, Spikes by 14 Basis Points to 4.07%, after Plunging to 3.93%, amid Massive Volatility. It undid more than the entire haven trade that had started on Thursday and blew through the hot PPI inflation on Friday https://t.co/mjFPIIuVi8...
Most telling thing about this episode so far is complete inability of duration to hold anything resembling a bid.
Hong Kong's Treasury Secretary Christopher Hui announced plans to broaden the SAR's preferential tax regime to cover insurance-linked securities (ILS) such as catastrophe bonds. The proposal expands the definition of “funds” to include pensions, endowments and single‑investor vehicles, and adds...
Non-stop selling of the belly since futures opened last night with 5s easing up on the curve after a historic run. https://t.co/7GuCuTfHeW
Ten-year treasury yields are back above 4%. Very short-lived reaction to the conflict in Middle East. https://t.co/CSDtKBWAFO
Elementum Advisors entered 2026 with assets under management rising to $3.8 bn, a $100 m increase from the start of 2025. While White Mountains still holds a 26.6% equity stake, its investment in Elementum’s ILS funds fell from $161 m in 2023 to...
In this episode of Credit Crunch, Noel Hubert interviews Jim Gubitosi, co‑CIO of Income Research & Management, about the firm’s evolution from a modest $10 bn AUM boutique to a $130 bn fixed‑income specialist. Gubitosi recounts how the 2007‑08 financial crisis forced...
PIMCO’s Active Bond ETF (BOND) is an actively managed, multi‑sector bond fund launched in 2012, holding nearly 1,900 securities with a 30‑day SEC yield of 4.56% and a net expense ratio of 0.54%. Since inception it has generated a total...
U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have been trading in a sideways range for years... #MACDhist ticking down for 4 weeks in a row... https://t.co/LTKir2ZNyJ
High‑yield bond funds are gaining traction as investors chase yield in a post‑pandemic recovery. Zacks Investment Research highlights three Zacks Rank #1 funds—Neuberger Berman Floating Rate Income, Buffalo High Yield, and Virtus Seix Floating Rate High Income—each delivering three‑year annualized...
Invesco launched two new US‑dollar‑denominated corporate bond ETFs on the London Stock Exchange on 2 March 2026. Both funds track the iBoxx USD Corporates Investment‑Grade Spread Select Top 50 % TCA Index, using a rules‑based, quarterly‑rebalanced selection that targets higher‑yielding bonds within each sector and maturity...
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA announced on 2 March 2026 that it will exercise its call option to redeem the entire outstanding issue of Tier 1 restricted bonds (ISIN NO0010965429). The redemption, approved by Norway's Financial Supervisory Authority, covers a loan amount of NOK 713 million and will...
The United States’ military escalation against Iran has triggered a rapid flight‑to‑quality, pushing U.S. Treasury prices up and yields down while simultaneously stoking inflation concerns via higher oil prices. This dual dynamic creates a paradox for intermediate‑term bond investors, as...
A Bank of Singapore survey of 90 senior intermediaries across Singapore, Greater China and Dubai shows a clear shift toward fixed‑income products as investors brace for anticipated rate cuts. One‑third of respondents expect rising demand for bonds, while alternative investments...
The LBO debt market is freaking out. Here comes a $20B test of nerves https://t.co/MiXTnEB2pK
Tidewater reported Q2 2025 revenue of $341.4 million, a 2% sequential increase, driven by a record average day rate of $23,166. Gross margin reached 50.1%, well above the 44% guidance, and net income was $72.9 million, helped by a $27 million tax benefit....
Ares Management priced its second European direct‑lending CLO on 2 March 2026, marking a follow‑up to its £305 million debut less than a year earlier. The new issuance targets the European middle‑market loan pool, aiming to capture the surge in private‑credit activity across...
Calamos Market Neutral Income Strategy posted a 1.53% net return in Q4 2025, beating the Bloomberg US Government/Credit Bond Index’s 0.90% gain. The fund’s performance was driven by a strong hedged‑equity book and continued arbitrage activity, even as SPAC arbitrage...
Interest from HYSA is taxed at federal AND state/local level. But interest from T-Bills is only taxed at the federal level, saving you anywhere from 0-13% in state/local taxes. T-bills also generally have better yields. Small adjustments can make a big difference over...
Not a terribly surprising open. Crude up 8%. SPooz off 1% and USTs up solidly bid but selling into best levels.
Schwab’s High Yield Bond ETF (SCYB) received a hold rating as macro‑economic headwinds raise concerns in the junk bond market. The fund offers a 6.7% distribution yield, a short 2.9‑year duration, and 58% exposure to BB‑rated issuers, but technical resistance...
Aussie 10s have on average traded 67bps cheap to UST 10s over the past few weeks. Currently trading 4.58 which suggest UST 10s should open around 3.91, 3 bps richer (that's like 6-7 ticks)
