Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
Nexstar Media Group announced a cash tender offer to repurchase its 5% senior notes due 2029, a move directly tied to the pending acquisition of TEGNA. The offer, managed by BofA Securities, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs, will remain open until April 2, 2025, at 5 pm Eastern. Nexstar executives recently met with FCC Chairman Brendan Carr and Media Bureau officials, signaling that regulatory clearance for the merger is likely imminent. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2026, promising expanded local‑media reach.
Loomis Sayles introduced its Core Plus Full Discretion strategy as a response to the 2022 yield reset that ended a long low‑rate era. The approach diverges from traditional domestic core fixed‑income by employing active, discretionary management to capture income and total‑return opportunities....
Prediction‑market trading is booming, with 2025 activity surpassing $44 billion and state officials racing to regulate the sector. The CFTC, under Michael Selig, argues federal jurisdiction, while dozens of states file lawsuits claiming gambling violations. Florida’s bond finance chief Ben Watkins...
🚨Investors are hedging against a market crash at a record pace: Combined put open interest in credit ETFs, $HYG, $LQD, $JNK, and $BKLN, plus call open interest in the Treasury ETF, $TLT, is up to a record 15.9 million contracts. This has...
Macro: credit litigation; GLAS sues Annington for £1.56bn over 2032–2051 bonds. Key: issuer rejects acceleration. Risk: repayment shock, guarantor strain. Trading insight: avoid Annington bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Pim van Mourik Broekman outlines the Euro credit market’s current landscape, highlighting overweight financials and utilities versus underweight industrials. He warns that geopolitical tensions and divergent central‑bank policies—particularly the ECB’s dovish stance against the Fed’s tightening—could steepen the yield curve. Valuations...
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Aptiv’s subsidiaries have launched a $1.5 bn private senior notes offering tied to the planned spin‑off of its Electrical Distribution Systems (EDS) unit. The notes, due in 2031 and 2034, will be held in escrow until the separation is finalized. In...
February was a strong month for Nordic CTA managers, making CTAs the top‑performing sub‑strategy in the Nordic Hedge Index. Gains were anchored by fixed‑income and soft‑commodity profits, with all trend‑following managers posting positive returns. Several non‑trend managers also delivered gains,...
Well well well... BlackRock marked a private credit loan at 100 cents on the dollar in Q3. By Q4, it was a big fat ZERO. Not 80. Not 50. ZERO. In 3 months. This is the second time $TCPC has done this recently....
UST funding pressure starting to ramp up as swap spreads narrow 3-4 bps across the curve. 30y tenor now less than -78 bps https://t.co/yWt8DEzUEr
An asset manager’s bonds are priced 50‑75 basis points wider than those of its major peers. Rating agencies signal potential upgrades, while the bond market doubts the firm’s credit health. The company’s fourth‑quarter results revealed record fundraising, growing margins, and...
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
since @federalreserve starting cutting rates this cycle (Sep '24), U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen... the green circles show the rate cuts since... https://t.co/g34w7tO0BZ
Indian government bonds rallied on Thursday after a record ₹202 billion (≈$2.19 billion) of bonds were net‑bought by the RBI and institutional investors on Wednesday. The 10‑year benchmark yield steadied around 6.66%, reversing a brief rise, while the rupee strengthened to ₹91.61...
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.
Treasury (TLT) buyer 5000 December $89 straddles expecting bond volatility, tends to be bad for markets, good for TW MKTX
Bond options traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year. The probability of a no‑cut scenario rose to 25% by Wednesday, up from 17% before the Iran‑Israel conflict escalated. Higher oil prices from the Middle‑East...
Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
Corporate bond issuance in India fell more than 20% year‑on‑year in February 2026, marking the weakest three‑year level. Meanwhile, banks reclaimed dominance, with their share of total commercial‑sector funding rising to about 63% in FY26, up from 51% a year...
At the annual SFVegas conference, industry leaders examined the latest CLO and ABS market dynamics. Panelists highlighted a rebound in fourth‑quarter CLO issuance, driven by a wave of resets and expanding private‑credit activity. Deutsche Bank warned that CLO equity will...
Mortgage rates slipped further in February, with the 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage averaging 6.05% and briefly dipping below the 6% mark, while the 15‑year rate fell to 5.43%. The 10‑year Treasury yield held near 4.18% for most of the month before...
A California judge set a June 8 trial for a False Claims Act case accusing major Wall Street banks of conspiring to rig interest rates on variable‑rate demand bonds (VRDOs). The lawsuit, filed by municipal advisor Johan Rosenberg on behalf of...
Roberts Berzins warns that XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Trust (XFLT) remains a high‑risk vehicle despite a headline 20.9% yield. The trust’s portfolio is dominated by ultra‑high‑risk CLO equity and private‑credit positions, which have suffered repeated dividend cuts and...
"I need to park $50k of cash for 12 months. What are my options?" > $VUSXX (Vanguard Treasury MM Fund) or any Treasury equivalent. State/local tax exempt, 3.63% yield > HYSA (FDIC insured, ~3%) Don’t invest it, unless 12 months turns into 12...
Mideastern commodity force majeures beginning to populate my X feed Western company evacuations of Mideastern countries beginning to populate my X feed Western investor consensus still heavily weighted to this being a short conflict. Yet 10y UST yields are only up to 4.08%?...
Fidelity Total Bond ETF delivered a 7.58% NAV return for 2025, edging the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index’s 7.30% performance. The Federal Reserve’s additional rate cuts in October and December lowered the target range to 3.5%‑3.75%, supporting bond prices. The...
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
10-year yield action this week 🥱 considering all that has happened, maybe jobs Friday changes that https://t.co/30TFujFiHs
Andover Companies, a long‑standing mutual insurer in the Northeast, is seeking to upsize its upcoming Locke Tavern Re cat‑bond to between $250 million and $300 million. The new Series 2026‑1 issuance will feature two tranches—Class A and Class B—each expanded to $125‑150 million, with price guidance...
Right now, Europe is looking at an inflation shock roughly double that of the US ~ 2%pts
ADP with a slight beat along with small negative revision to previous month. Nothingburger. USTs yawn
European sovereign bonds slipped for a third consecutive session as surging oil and natural‑gas prices revived inflation concerns. The rally in energy commodities coincided with a U.S. initiative to secure a key Middle‑East shipping lane, which failed to calm markets....
LIVE Shot of our Inflation Nowcast Accelerating into #Quad3 in Bond Market Volatility terms https://t.co/cTSAqYA6P7
Fitch Ratings lowered Indonesia's credit outlook to negative, citing rising policy uncertainty. The agency kept the long‑term foreign‑currency issuer default rating at BBB, an investment‑grade level. This follows Moody's February decision to downgrade the outlook amid concerns over governance under...
Catastrophe‑bond yields stayed flat in February 2026, ending at 8.91% versus 8.87% in January. Primary issuances were priced roughly 30% lower than recent historical levels, generating price pressure that muted the expected seasonal spread widening after the hurricane season. Strong...
PensionDanmark has shifted the bulk of its emerging market debt portfolio from external managers to an internal team, now overseeing most hard‑currency and local‑currency sovereign exposure. The fund employs a core‑satellite framework, using the internal core for broad beta and...
Beazley’s CEO Adrian Cox announced that the insurer will move beyond issuing cyber catastrophe bonds to full‑scale securitisation and transformation of cyber risks. A dedicated cyber insurance‑linked securities (ILS) fund is slated for launch in 2026, built on the company’s...
Chinese sovereign bonds are positioning themselves as a strategic alternative to US Treasuries, driven by investor demand for geopolitical hedges. Recent dollar‑denominated issuances in Hong Kong saw a 30‑times oversubscription, with coupon rates closely matching Treasury yields. Economist Xu Qiyuan...
DBS China participated in 65.8 billion yuan of Panda‑bond issuances in 2025, capturing a 38% share of the China Interbank Bond Market. The bank also received a principal underwriting licence for non‑financial corporate bonds, the most extensive authority granted by the...
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC reported a $73 million increase in its debt investment portfolio for Q3 2025, marking the third straight quarter of growth and a year‑to‑date rise of nearly $110 million. New commitments surged to $182 million, with 90% directed toward AI,...
Brookfield Asset Management announced a new private‑placement commercial paper program with a $1 billion ceiling. The unsecured notes will be issued on a short‑term basis to diversify the firm’s funding mix and bolster its balance sheet. Proceeds are slated for general...
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
Senator John Kennedy introduced the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board Reform Act of 2026, aiming to shift the MSRB’s governance to a majority of regulated representatives and tighten SEC oversight. The proposal would replace the current Dodd‑Frank‑mandated public‑representative majority with a...
In the latest Net Interest Extra episode, sociologist Sarah Quinn discusses her book *American Bonds*, which argues that credit markets have been a foundational force in shaping the United States. Quinn traces how borrowing practices influenced industrial growth, urbanization, and...
Paramount Skydance Debt Downgraded to Junk Status by Fitch Ratings Following Warner Bros. Discovery Deal https://t.co/bBiUN3grT5 via @variety
FWIW/IMHO: markets are pricing in a supply shock. Different from the pandemic, no expectation of rate cuts that wouldn't help. Real rates up.
Fitch Ratings upgraded Florida International University's issuer default rating to AA, up from AA‑minus, and raised its parking‑revenue bonds to AA‑minus from A‑plus. The agency affirmed the dormitory‑revenue refunding bonds at A‑plus, while maintaining stable outlooks across all ratings. FIU’s...
Allocators are funding a logical switch trade: Redeeming BCRED at NAV to buy $BXSL at an -11% discount to NAV. Look for this dynamic to occur between every other private credit fund with both a non-traded and listed BDC.
Loomis Sayles introduced its Full Discretion team, highlighting a credit‑cycle lens, bottom‑up security analysis, and a disciplined, repeatable investment process. The team operates with full discretion to adjust allocations swiftly as market conditions evolve. The communication emphasizes that the methodology is...
