Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen‑funded carry trade, raising bond market risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has made the yen the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that a sudden, aggressive tightening could compress spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
The Bond Buyer’s 2026 Predictions report forecasts municipal bond issuance to surpass $500 billion, with many respondents arguing $750 billion or more is required to fund looming infrastructure needs. Overall supply, tax‑exempt and revenue bonds are all expected to grow, driven by strong demand in utilities, transportation and general‑government sectors. Healthcare bonds are projected to lead high‑yield issuance, while ESG‑labeled bonds face a supply decline. Seasonal market patterns and lingering tax‑exemption policy uncertainty could temper the pace of new deals.
Trumid’s electronic fixed‑income marketplace posted a record $10.2 billion average daily volume in February, a 37% year‑over‑year increase and the first time it breached the $10 billion mark. Market share rose 13% YoY, while its RFQ tool surged 148% to a $1.6 billion...
On central banks: Judging from the shift in market probabilities of interest rate actions, the markets now believe that single-mandate central banks (that is, price stability), such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are in no mood...
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
Valero Energy priced an $850 million senior note offering due 2036 with a 5.15% coupon, set to close Tuesday. The net proceeds will refinance higher‑cost 2026 debt, including 7.65% debentures and 3.4% senior notes. In 2025 the refiner achieved a record...
10y UST yield (blue, RS1) USDJPY * oil (red, LS) USDCNY * oil (green, RS2) Since Japan lifted YCC on 10y JGBs 👇 "Iran doesn't have to beat the US military; it just has to beat the UST market" -Title of 3/3/26...
Government gilt yields spiked on Monday as oil prices surged nearly 30%, reigniting fears of higher inflation and prolonged interest‑rate hikes. The 10‑year gilt rose 14 basis points, while the two‑year jumped over 23 basis points, reflecting market expectations that...
Central banks have overshot their inflation targets for FIVE YEARS. This war threatens to make that six. If you think they are just gonna cut rates anyway, I dunno what to tell you. Minimum - rate cuts are postponed.
The Advent Convertible and Income Fund (AVK) delivers an 11.63% distribution yield by blending convertible securities with high‑yield junk bonds. Leverage sits at 37.07%, amplifying returns while keeping principal volatility moderate. The fund trades at a 6.86% discount to NAV,...
Basically; 2026 was supposed to be the year where you bought carry in 26 STIR contracts, and cash bond curves would steepen. Best laid plans and all that.
10 Yr Note Futures fall again (-13.5/32's to 112-00+) Since tagging 114 and seeing the UST Active 10 Yr Note fall under 4%, it has been a steady reversal aided by the war in the Middle East. https://t.co/aX13QG6ARo
Municipality Finance Plc (MuniFin) issued DKK 1 billion senior notes on 10 March 2026 with a fixed 2.288 % annual coupon and a maturity of 10 March 2031. The issuance is part of MuniFin’s EUR 50 billion medium‑term note programme and is being underwritten by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken...
Fitch Ratings warns that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could create new credit risks for emerging‑market sovereigns. Disruptions to Gulf oil supplies may push energy import costs higher, strengthening the US dollar and tightening debt markets, especially for speculative‑grade issuers. Countries...
Morningstar DBRS released its March 2026 Consider Credit—Fundamental Ratings Monthly Briefing, presenting a Credit Rating Actions Dashboard that spans sovereign, public‑finance, banking and corporate sectors. Most ratings were confirmations, with a handful of trend upgrades, a single bank downgrade, and upgrades for...
Puzzling. In risk-off market yields go down, but they're flat to up, globally (so not "sell-America"). Central banks seen as less likely to ease. True, until you get non-linearities and recessions (e.g. summer of 2008, oil up sharply and ECB...
Isn't it likely that countries in fiscal distress find it hard to borrow, have to pay high default premia, and run down their reserves like everything else?
Zambia and the United Kingdom have signed an amendment that reduces Zambia's outstanding debt to the UK from $291 million to about $277 million and pushes the final repayment deadline from 2032 to 2043. The deal is part of Zambia’s broader debt‑restructuring...
PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunity Fund (PTY) trades at an 11.24% distribution yield, delivering $1.43 per share despite a recent price decline. The fund’s net asset value remains resilient, indicating solid portfolio quality, while the discount stems mainly from premium...
The Eldridge BBB‑B CLO ETF (CLOZ) currently offers an attractive 8% yield, but its share price has slipped as credit spreads tighten and market volatility rises. The fund’s income stream relies heavily on elevated interest rates, so a continued decline...
Friday’s 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread sits above the Federal Reserve’s 2 % inflation target, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s Dodd‑Katz‑Wright (DKW) expected inflation series. Both metrics suggest market participants price in CPI inflation well above 2 % for the medium term. Kalshi’s latest...
High yield credit (HYG) down 0.5% on March 6th. When junk bonds sell off alongside equities, it means credit markets are sniffing out real economic stress, not just a volatility event. Watch HYG. It leads. Always. https://t.co/HpbzOsBALw
Emerging‑market (EM) bonds are delivering roughly double the yield of developed‑market debt while their volatility has fallen below that of traditional safe‑haven assets. The structural advantage stems from EM governments carrying about half the debt‑to‑GDP ratios of their developed counterparts,...
The thing is, the current secondary market prices of liquid private credit vehicles (BDCs) are implying a default rate north of 20%, far in excess of anything experienced during the GFC and greater than UBS’s draconian “worst case” scenario
The Feb. 28 outbreak of war in the Middle East sparked a broad equity sell‑off during the March 2‑6 week, while energy stocks were the only sector to post gains, rising about 1 %. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, except for a...
Jackson Hospital & Clinic in Alabama has filed Chapter 11, offering bondholders an estimated 18.7% recovery on par, or 22.9% for the broader secured class. The $87.5 million secured claim pool will be paid via a $2.5 million cash injection, $7.5 million senior unsecured...
IDB Invest has committed $50 million to Ecuador’s inaugural biodiversity bond, part of a $120 million issuance also backed by the International Finance Corporation and Dutch development bank FMO. The bond, issued through Banco Bolivariano, will fund projects under its Biodiversity Financing Framework,...
Aqua Finance is re‑entering the securitization market with a $381.3 million asset‑backed security backed by loans for water‑treatment equipment, home‑improvement projects, marine craft and recreational vehicles. Originations through Q4 2025 jumped 30.6% year‑over‑year, fueled by new partnerships that lifted borrower quality to...
Mortgage rates remained relatively flat this week despite opposing forces in the bond market. A sharp surge in oil prices initially pushed rates higher by stoking inflation concerns, but a surprisingly weak jobs report later that day pulled yields down....
Priority 1 Issuer Logistics DAC has published its consolidated management accounts and interim management report for the three‑month period ended 31 December 2025. The Q4 FY25 investor update is now accessible via the company’s investor portal and Oslo Børs NewsWeb. The filing...
This has to be one of the most bearish charts I’ve ever seen for CDX HY. One can argue that they won’t be as correlated as they’ve always been, but ‘this time is different’ may be wrong . I think...
Gundlach’s law of financial physics: The frequency of losses times the severity of losses equals a constant. Implication: do not invest in artificially “low volatility” strategies.
Brightline Trains Florida LLC saw S&P Global Ratings downgrade its $2.2 billion Opco debt and $1.19 billion East bonds to CCC‑minus, deepening its junk‑status. The downgrade follows a series of rating cuts by KBRA and Fitch, all warning of a possible default...
Junk bonds diverging with stocks and working on a break of support, of a bearish descending triangle at (1) $JNK $HYG $SPY https://t.co/qGVRKZxUKf
SageSure successfully issued the $175 million Gateway Re Series 2026‑2 catastrophe bond, meeting its target size while pricing Class A notes below initial guidance and Class B notes within range. The multi‑peril bond provides reinsurance for Auros Reciprocal and Interboro across storm, earthquake, wildfire, severe...
2s5s had been under relentless pressure in the past month (AI disruption and all) but finally a surge steeper after that weak a&& NFP print https://t.co/fYJGpdBc5q
The SEC reached a partial settlement with Jeffrey Puzzullo, the construction consultant who helped fabricate financial projections for the $284 million Legacy Cares municipal bond offering in Arizona. Puzzullo pleaded guilty to conspiracy, securities fraud, wire fraud and aggravated identity theft,...
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest since April, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries seem to be trading on a different dynamic. https://t.co/hStpU22gbY
California school‑district municipal bonds remain a solid risk‑adjusted investment despite mounting headwinds such as declining enrollment and exposure to child‑sex‑abuse lawsuits. Strong state backing via Proposition 98 and first‑lien tax claims underpin the sector’s credit quality, with most districts holding A‑rating...
This is all I was trying to say. The relative rerating of the curve this time vs 2022 is very different and implies a quicker resolution vs 2022 when the whole curve rerated. Thanks Warren
The yields on bonds of pretty much all EU member states are moving closer to Germany’s. This is the right time for common euro debt, writes @marcusashworth https://t.co/ZN3JVBYKDo via @opinion https://t.co/fSn1i0CbMd
In this inaugural Bloomberg Intelligence FIC podcast, municipal market veteran Tom Doe discusses the emerging role of prediction markets—platforms like Polymarket and CalSHE—in providing real‑time sentiment and risk data for municipal bonds. He explains how these markets could address shortcomings...
Cutting cycle is over, apparently - and markets starting to price hikes. Except for the Fed because, you know, he did *promise*...... https://t.co/rJQHqLdaJj
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
BlackRock introduced the iShares € Flexible Income Bond Active UCITS ETF on the London Stock Exchange on 6 March 2026. The GBP‑hedged, accumulating share class carries a 0.42% expense ratio and gives investors exposure to a globally diversified bond portfolio. The fund can allocate...
4.17% on the 10yr... highest since Feb 12... remember it gapped down to 3.93% to start the week (Sunday night) https://t.co/fDNCy0A6lE
Eclipse Re Ltd., a Bermuda‑based special purpose insurer, issued its first private catastrophe bond of 2026 – a $100 million Series 2026‑1A note listed on the Bermuda Stock Exchange. The bond, likely covering property catastrophe reinsurance or retrocession, matures on December 31 2027, making...
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
Agency mortgage market showed tepid activity in February, with rate‑refinance volumes remaining sluggish. GSE credit‑risk‑transfer (CRT) issuance fell to its lowest level since 2013, while overall loan originations modestly increased across most product lines. Delinquency rates at large servicers rose...
"The US Dollar may still have moved up after the war started, but the price of US Treasuries went down. Flight-to-safety and flight-to-quality aren’t what they used to be."
