Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
Years After TCJA's Enactment, Push to Restore Tax-Exempt Advance Refunding Continues
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act eliminated tax‑exempt advance refundings, a long‑standing municipal financing tool, and the provision will turn ten next year. State and local issuers, led by Michigan Treasurer Rachael Eubanks, argue that rising interest rates have revived the need for the mechanism to lower borrowing costs. Advocacy groups and the Bond Dealers of America are pushing H.R.1255, the Investing in Our Communities Act, to restore the tool. While legislative timing is uncertain, bipartisan support is growing as officials prepare for the 2027 Congress.
Stable Sea Taps WisdomTree to Bring Tokenized Treasury Yield to Business Operating Cash
Stable Sea has partnered with asset manager WisdomTree to embed its tokenized money‑market fund WTGXX into the Stable Sea Terminal platform, giving business treasuries direct access to on‑chain U.S. Treasury yields. WTGXX holds about $855 million in tokenized Treasuries and ranks...
There’s Upward Pressure on Interest Rates With a Slight Bias for Fed Hikes
The market’s FedWatch data shows a modest bias toward rate hikes, with the most likely outcome being a 3.50‑3.75% target in April 2027 (67.6% probability). A recent 8‑basis‑point shift from a cut bias to a hike bias coincides with a...
Inside the Fed's Balance Sheet
A new video and podcast interview with finance professor Darrell Duffie examines the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Duffie draws on his recent paper to explain how the Fed’s roughly $8 trillion asset base shapes the U.S. payments system and monetary policy....
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Flags Imminent Global Bond Crisis
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned at Norway’s sovereign wealth fund conference that soaring government debt worldwide could trigger a bond market crisis. He cited geopolitical tensions, oil price volatility and widening deficits as risk drivers, and said the market...
Fannie Earnings Stable in First Quarter
HUD’s assistant secretary for Fair Housing, Craig Trainor, warned that non‑compliant fair‑housing advocates could face an “investigative storm.” A scheduled FHFA‑HUD press conference was abruptly cancelled, fueling speculation that it was tied to the rollout of VantageScore 4.0. Investment firm PIMCO...
Hut 8 Selling $3.25bn in Bonds to Finance Google and Anthropic-Backed River Bend AI Data Center Campus
Hut 8 is issuing $3.25 billion of investment‑grade bonds due 2042 to finance its 245 MW River Bend AI data‑center campus in Louisiana, the first phase of a potential 2.295 GW partnership with Fluidstack and Anthropic backed by Google. The 592‑acre site can scale beyond...
U.S. Treasury Yields Hit Highest Levels Since March as Oil Surges
U.S. Treasury yields surged to their highest levels this month as oil prices spiked following the U.S. attack on Iran, eroding market hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The two‑year note rose to about 3.90% and the 30‑year approached 5%,...
Jeffrey Gundlach: Beware the Ides of June | CNBC
Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC the Federal Reserve’s final post‑meeting tone was markedly hawkish, validating the recent bond‑market sell‑off. He expects headline CPI to climb to a 4% annual rate, making any Fed rate cuts this year implausible and suggesting the...
EDV: A +5.1% Is Not Enough For Me To Justify A 3.3x Sensitivity
Vanguard’s Extended Duration Treasury Index ETF (EDV) offers a 5.1% yield to maturity but carries a permanent ~24‑year duration, making its price sensitivity roughly 3.3‑times that of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. The fund’s beta of 3.46 reflects extreme...
Paving the Way for a Warsh Fed
The Justice Department’s decision to drop its probe into the Fed’s building renovation clears the path for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Federal Reserve chair. Warsh, long viewed as an inflation hawk, now emphasizes a nuanced definition of inflation,...
Canada Yields Rise Independently of Recent Rate Cuts
when they tell you that Canadian rates (yields) are rising and the @bankofcanada is all to blame, just tell'em they're wrong... 5-year Canada yields bottomed in '20 (like global yields) they spent the past few years consolidating and are now moving...
Treasuries Slump as Fed Division Reveals Split on Rate Outlook
The Federal Reserve kept rates steady on April 29, but a clear split emerged among policymakers over the Middle East war’s inflation impact. Treasury yields rose sharply, with the two‑year note hitting 3.94% and the 30‑year approaching 5%. Market pricing...
Iran War Is Fueling a Bond Selloff Ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Fin...
Investor anxiety over the Iran war’s oil shock is driving a bond sell‑off as the 10‑year Treasury yield climbed to 4.39%. Elevated crude prices above $109 per barrel have pushed inflation expectations toward 3%, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold...
German Finance Minister Doesn’t Rule Out Emergency Borrowing as ‘Trump’s Irresponsible War’ Bites
German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil warned that Germany will need unprecedented borrowing over the next four years, with a budget plan calling for €200 billion ($215 billion) next year and €600 billion ($645 billion) over the following three years. About €85 billion ($91 billion) will be...
Bank of Canada Makes Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada left its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as inflation rebounded to 2.4% in March, driven by a spike in energy prices linked to the US‑Israeli conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Unemployment held steady...
UK Interest Rates: Will the Bank of England Increase the Base Rate?
The UK’s July energy price cap is set to rise to £1,836 a year (≈ $2,300), a 12% jump linked to the Strait of Hormuz blockage. Inflation remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target and is forecast to hit 4%...
Goldstein Advisors Boosts UBND Stake with $6.2 M Purchase
Goldstein Advisors acquired 279,496 additional shares of the VictoryShares Core Plus Bond ETF (UBND) for an estimated $6.15 million, lifting its holding to 4.1% of its reportable assets. The move highlights continued institutional appetite for actively managed, intermediate‑duration bond funds amid...
America’s Bond-Market Privilege Is Disappearing as US Debt Soars
U.S. Treasury bonds are losing their historic convenience‑yield premium as the federal debt swells past $31 trillion, now over 100% of GDP and projected to hit 120% within a decade. Research from Harvard’s Wenxin Du shows the premium has shrunk by...
Can Canada Borrow Its Way to Wealth with the New Canada Strong Fund?
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the Canada Strong Fund, a new sovereign‑wealth vehicle seeded with a $25 bn CAD ($18 bn USD) federal contribution financed through borrowing. The fund will be managed as an arm’s‑length Crown corporation and will invite retail investors...
Palomar Raises Target for Torrey Pines Re 2026-1 Catastrophe Bond to as Much as $410m
Palomar Insurance Holdings has increased the size of its Torrey Pines Re 2026-1 catastrophe bond to a target range of $380 million‑$410 million, up from the original $375 million request. The issuance comprises four tranches—three for California earthquake risk and one for Hawaii...
Middle East Turmoil Fuels Inflation Fears, Testing Fed’s Patience
The Federal Reserve is poised to leave its policy rate unchanged as it confronts a volatile inflation outlook sparked by renewed Middle East conflict. Escalating tensions have pushed crude oil prices up roughly 8%, feeding higher headline and core consumer‑price...
CIBC Global Asset Management Announces Expansion of CIBC Investment Grade Bond Funds Lineup Including Two New Laddered Funds
CIBC Global Asset Management announced the launch of five new CIBC Investment Grade Bond Funds and two laddered funds, each offered in Series A, F and O. All new funds, except the U.S. laddered version, have ETF series units now...
Cities Near Mumbai to Issue Bonds for the First Time, Bankers Say
Indian municipal corporations near Mumbai are moving into the bond market for the first time. Navi Mumbai plans a ₹1,000 crore (~$120 million) issuance, while Panvel will issue a smaller, still‑undecided amount. Both have secured high credit ratings—AA+ for Navi Mumbai and AA‑ for...
Jamie Dimon Gets Candid About National Debt: ‘There Will Be a Bond Crisis, and Then We’ll Have to Deal with...
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the United States could face a bond market crisis if policymakers delay action on the near‑$39 trillion national debt. He told Norges Bank Investment Management’s CEO that while he isn’t panicked, maturity of the...
Jamie Dimon Gets Candid About National Debt: ‘There Will Be a Bond Crisis, and Then We’ll Have to Deal with...
J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the United States faces a looming bond market crisis if policymakers fail to address the near‑$39 trillion national debt. He said the Treasury’s $1 trillion‑plus annual interest bill signals mounting risk, and that geopolitical...
Convex Reduces Hypatia 2026-1 Retro Cat Bond Size Target to Between $150m – $175m
Convex Group has lowered its target for the Hypatia Ltd. Series 2026‑1 catastrophe bond to a retrocession range of $150 million to $175 million. The tranche of Class A notes will be priced at the midpoint of the original guidance, roughly a 5%...
EM Lens: Investors Aren’t Packing Their EM Bags Just Yet
In this episode of Emerging Markets Lens, senior EM fixed‑income manager Araf Joshi discusses how the Iran‑related oil shock is tightening LNG supplies and pressuring Asian and African economies, leading to higher bond spreads and fiscal stimulus measures. He contrasts...
Shelton Wealth Management Dumps $8.6M IBTG Stake, Signals Shift in Treasury‑ETF Sentiment
Shelton Wealth Management sold all 376,011 shares of iShares iBonds Dec 2026 Term Treasury ETF (IBTG) for an estimated $8.61 million, wiping the fund from its portfolio. The exit, filed on April 28, 2026, reflects the fund’s approaching maturity and may signal broader...
US Treasury Yields Jump to 4.35% as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Fears
U.S. Treasury yields surged on Tuesday, with the two‑year note topping 3.85% and the 10‑year reaching 4.35%, the highest in about a month. The spike was driven by rising oil prices and heightened inflation worries amid the ninth‑week Iran‑related conflict,...
Inflation‑linked Bonds Boost Nominal Returns, Tax on Unrealized Gains
𝗧𝗮𝘅𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗛𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗻'𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗱 😲 To see how RSA Retail Savings Inflation-Linked Bonds work, let’s look at a hypothetical investment of R100,000 over a 5 year period 𝗟𝗲𝘁'𝘀 𝘀𝗮𝘆 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝟭𝟬𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝟱-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻-𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝘁 𝗮 𝟰.𝟳𝟱%...
DWS Lists Xtrackers II Global Government Bond UCITS ETF 4D in London
DWS listed the Xtrackers II Global Government Bond UCITS ETF 4D on the London Stock Exchange on 28 April 2026. The physically replicating, distributing ETF tracks the FTSE World Government Bond Index – Developed Markets and is denominated in USD with a 0.20% total expense...
Is Credit Now Impervious to the Middle East Conflict?
Credit markets have shown surprising resilience to the Middle East conflict, with Euro investment‑grade spreads widening only 10‑15 basis points before fully retracing. Higher swap rates have added 50‑60 basis points of extra yield, keeping demand strong despite lingering uncertainty....
Germany's AAA Rating at Risk Amid €1tn Debt Plan
Good Morning from Germany, where the country’s AAA credit rating is coming under pressure. Acc to a financial plan the cabinet is set to approve today, the federal govt aims to take on nearly €1tn in new debt by 2030....
Travelers Returns with $500m Target for New Long Point Re IV 2026-1 Cat Bond
Travelers Companies is re‑entering the catastrophe‑bond market with a $500 million target for the Long Point Re IV 2026‑1 issuance, a multi‑peril reinsurance deal covering the Northeastern United States. The bond will issue a single Class A tranche, attaching at $2.85 billion of losses...
Indonesia Telco Pivots to Private Debt After Public Bond Rethink
Indonesian telecom operator PT Solusi Sinergi Digital Tbk, known as Surge, has abandoned a planned public bond issuance due to tepid investor demand. Instead, the firm will raise about $300 million through privately placed senior secured notes with a limited group of investors. The...
AI Review Flags Alarming Surge in UK Yields
FWIW, this AI-generated review of the X universe over the last 24 hours takes my "understated" post on UK yields to a much more alarming level as it draws on other information in its database. #economy #markets #uk
Four Fed Dissenters Signal Rare Break From Easing Bias
NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992. https://t.co/JM88jOXIAg
ECB Signals Hawkish Shift as Oil‑Driven Inflation Risks Rise
The European Central Bank left policy rates unchanged in March but delivered a more hawkish outlook, citing rising oil prices and heightened inflation risks. Inflation jumped to 2.6% year‑on‑year in March, and the probability of a 25‑basis‑point hike in June...
Fed's Next Move: Markets See Zero Uncertainty
The Fed announces its next rates decision in half an hour, and there is exactly ZERO uncertainty about what it won't do (at least according to Fed Funds futures markets). https://t.co/Ikedm6uh6c
No Fed Dot Plot—FOMC Statement Takes Center Stage
There's no Fed dots today, which means that until Powell's last (and 64th—but who's counting) press conference at 2:30 pm, it's just the FOMC statement to do the heavy lifting. Here's what I'm watching: https://t.co/8sdY0wHDV8
CMBS Debt Yields Rise to 10.3% as Negative Leverage Persists
CRED iQ’s analysis of roughly 3,700 newly originated CMBS loans shows the weighted‑average debt yield firming to 10.3% across property types. Despite the yield rebound, negative leverage endures for multifamily, retail, industrial and self‑storage, keeping new acquisitions out of accretive...
Iran War Pushes Fed Cuts Out Past 2027
Almost three Fed rate cuts have been priced out from July 2027 meeting since beginning of Iran war. The chart below shows the implied rate for July 2027; source: Bloomberg https://t.co/sZt0N3IHO2
Treasuries Near Multi-Year Breakdown Ahead of Powell's Final FOMC
$TLT Weekly. Headed into Powell's final FOMC, Treasuries on brink of not just multi-month breakdown but multi-year as well. Bear flag threat here, which means risk of rates spiking higher yet https://t.co/BKBIEADTxm
Sharc Energy Closes Second Tranche of Debenture
SHARC Energy closed a second $300,000 tranche of unsecured convertible debentures, bringing total private‑placement proceeds to $600,000. The debentures bear an 8 % annual interest rate, mature in three years, and can be converted into common shares at $0.125 per share....
USDCAD Reflects Negative Yield Spread Despite Higher US Rates
Even though the US benchmark rate is ~150 basis points higher than the Canadian benchmark, the 2-year to benchmark yield spread between the US and Canada is -0.53% (-53 bps). $USDCAD vs that premium differential: https://t.co/hp6WgKtRCI
Global Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs, Lifting US Rates
Global bond yields still a story. 10 yr JGB yield at 29 yr high, German 10 yr bund yield at 15 yr high, and 10 yr gilt yield at 16 yr high today. Dragging up US long end yields.
Bonds and Yen Remain Market’s Critical Focus
Just released this week's Scouting the Tape that follows up on last week's bond and Yen discussion. Continue to believe this is the most important area of the market. There is a lot going on here.
Bond Yields Hit Cycle Highs Amid Accelerating Global Inflation
Globally, Bond Yields continue to ramp to new Cycle Highs (in both the UK and Japan) as Global Inflation continues to accelerate https://t.co/bA1ZMxliBU
1873 Railway Bond Bust Unveiled in New Episode
A new episode of The Story of Money has just dropped, and is based on a chapter in my forthcoming book on the history of the bond market… It's the big fat railway bond bust of 1873! https://t.co/kIo22xR6Gu