Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
Global investors are holding onto Adani Group’s dollar‑denominated bonds despite heightened market uncertainty from the West Asia crisis. On March 12, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ) launched a cash tender to buy back up to $495 million of senior notes due 2027 and 2031. Investors tendered only $199.5 million, meaning more than 60% kept their positions. The modest buyback trims APSEZ’s leverage while signaling sustained demand for Indian infrastructure debt among global funds.
UST Bond Yields signaling a Bullish TREND Breakout, across the curve - will review on The Macro Show https://t.co/MUbXHcltNR
China’s aggregate financing surged 2.4 trillion yuan in February, outpacing the Bloomberg‑survey median forecast of 2 trillion yuan. The People’s Bank of China reported that banks extended 900 billion yuan of new corporate loans, also beating expectations. The growth was driven by stronger...
Global shocks now account for about half of the variation in interest rates, more than double their role in earlier decades. https://t.co/a8Dhi9Gxpu
Nice chat with @julesaly looking at how the surge in crude oil is shaping price action in bonds, the US dollar, and the S&P 500. Today on @ausbiztv: https://t.co/8j3fNOcH2C
On March 13, 2026 the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC) submitted rule filing SR‑FICC‑2026‑005 to the SEC, seeking to set a delayed implementation schedule for enhancements to the correlation calculation used in bond haircut models. The filing amends the QRM Methodology Document...
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
The inaugural SCI CLO 100 event in London highlighted a maturing collateralized loan obligation market, where equity tranche returns are compressing and captive capital from banks now dominates funding. Managers reported a pronounced bifurcation between high‑quality and lower‑quality loan assets, while...
University of California is backing S.B. 895, a bipartisan bill proposing a $23 billion general‑obligation bond to fund research across the state. The bond would create the California Foundation for Science and Health Research to award grants and loans to universities,...
"Higher inflation could cause the Fed to eventually raise interest rates. But Sahm said the Fed will also consider what could happen if energy costs rise so high that the economy slows down. “That’s a scenario in which the Fed would...
The Internal Revenue Service issued a six‑page notice proposing amendments to the tax‑exempt refunding bond regulations. The changes would formally include 90‑day Treasury certificates in the definition of tax‑exempt bonds, clarifying how proceeds moved from State and Local Government Series...
In this episode, BNY Mellon CIO Jason Granet discusses the current and future shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, arguing that recent flattening is a temporary, cyclical retracement and that a steeper curve is likely to resume. He and...
The Austin City Council approved up to $575 million in water and wastewater revenue‑refunding and improvement bonds. $450 million will refinance short‑term commercial paper into long‑term debt, while $75 million will refund callable Series 2015 A bonds and $50 million will fund capital projects at the...
S&P Global Ratings has raised the long‑term issuer credit and senior unsecured debt rating for the Vancouver Airport Authority from AA‑ to AA, with a stable outlook. The upgrade cites Vancouver International Airport’s robust market position, strategic capital‑investment plan, and...
Moody's downgraded the University of Louisiana at Monroe student‑housing revenue bonds (Series 2019A) from B2 to B3, citing weak demand and an 85% occupancy rate. The debt‑service coverage ratio slipped to 0.98× as of December 2024, forcing draws on the debt‑service reserve....
The airport municipal bond sector has demonstrated strong credit resilience, weathering crises such as 9/11, COVID‑19, and recent geopolitical turbulence. Federal relief via the CARES Act prevented mass downgrades, and General Aviation Revenue Bonds (GARBs) have maintained stable, investment‑grade ratings...
In the inaugural Gundlach Unlocked webcast, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Fed’s 2 % target, long‑term rates remain elevated despite recent cuts, and the U.S. dollar may enter a weaker phase. He outlined...
This credit investor built the world’s largest bond fund, running nearly $300B, and reshaped fixed-income investing forever.
The software maturity wall isn't a secret. Everyone has this chart. $38B in 2028. Mostly B and below. These aren't getting refinanced at par. They're getting extended. The only question is whether the A&E is consensual or coercive. And if the last...
The UK Debt Management Office completed a £6.25 billion (US$8.4 billion) Green Gilt offering maturing in 2037, the first new green gilt since 2021. The issuance brings total green gilt proceeds to £55.8 billion since the program’s launch and introduces a dedicated green...
Blue Owl says the marks are real. Every sell-side analyst has a Buy. Yet $OBDC trades at a 25% discount to NAV. Finally had a chance to go through the portfolio. Found exactly what you'd expect: stale marks, understated software exposure,...
The article by WisdomTree analysts Jeff Weniger and Kevin Flanagan examines the state of U.S. credit markets amid lingering Middle‑East conflict concerns. It notes that investment‑grade and high‑yield spreads entered 2026 at the low end of historical ranges, briefly widened when the...
Senior economist Olivier Blanchard will discuss Europe’s Eurobonds proposal at a virtual Peterson Institute event on April 14, 2026. He will examine how the bond framework could deepen fiscal integration and address rising defense expenditures. Blanchard also addresses broader challenges...
Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire is targeting mid‑guidance pricing for its $100 million Kizuna Re III catastrophe bond, which provides earthquake reinsurance for the Tokio Marine group. The bond, issued through a Singapore‑based SPV, carries a three‑year rolling aggregate trigger and a...
UK borrowing costs are on the rise once more this morning. Per the Bloomberg chart below, yields on 10-year British government bonds are again above 4.70% as the war in the Middle East pushes Brent oil north of $95 once again. This...
The president expresses a desire for a rare intermeeting rate cut. The last one occurred on March 15, 2020, as the Covid shock overwhelmed financial markets. The Fed's next scheduled policy decision announcement—widely expected to be no change in rates—is in...
Bolivia’s finance ministry announced it will honor $356 million in interest and principal on its 2028 dollar‑denominated bonds due in late March, following the recent coupon payment on its $850 million 2030 issue. The government also confirmed plans to swap roughly 67%...
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
BBB spreads are tighter now than where they were at the end of February. That might surprise a lot of people. Yes, spreads have widened some, but still nowhere near past levels. https://t.co/CvrdmgMyHp
Jacktel announced that Equinor has extended the Draupner offshore contract by six weeks, now ending on May 27, 2026. Upon completion, the Haven vessel will be redeployed to a new location for a 15‑month firm charter. The extension eliminates the...
When the financial crisis was heating up, geniuses at Deutsche Bank opted to buy more "highly rated" tranches of mortgage backed securities. With that in mind, when I see that DB says they are expanding their private credit exposure, I...
U.S. long bonds $TLT are -51.7% over the last 6-years since peaking in 2020... https://t.co/5aCcOZfJZT
On February 18, 2026, DBRS Limited confirmed Heavy Metal Equipment & Rentals' long‑term issuer and senior debt ratings at BB (high) with a Stable outlook. The rating reflects the company's robust cash‑flow generation from its equipment leasing portfolio and disciplined...
New NYT Opinion from me: The debt math of the United States only works if the rest of the world believes in it… but they’re starting not to. What does that mean for our future (and for all this debt)?...
U.S. dollar $DXY, volatility $VIX and yields $TNX all rising in tandem > 20-day EMA... https://t.co/Dv49pGJIRC
Morningstar DBRS has issued provisional credit ratings for Freddie Mac’s Multifamily Structured Credit Risk Notes, Series 2026‑MN13. Class M‑1 receives a (P) BBB‑low rating while Class M‑2 is assigned (P) BB‑low, both with a Stable trend. The trust will fund...
German 10-year yield climbs to highest since 2023 on inflation fears https://t.co/cvav2xEd32 via @highisland https://t.co/oIAhZehdiG
A Private Credit Fund of Funds in 2026 seems to rather closely resemble a CDO-squared in early 2007.
Brazilian energy giant Raízen SA is seeking to restructure roughly $12.6 billion of debt out of court. Major European and Latin American banks—BNP Paribas, Banco Bradesco and Rabobank—have been identified as some of the company’s largest creditors. The restructuring plan is expected...
Another one. Cliffwater facing 7%+ redemptions on their $33B fund. Their response: “Sentiment is driving the selloff more than fundamentals.” That’s what they all say. Right before the gates go up.
Bonds fall on growth fears and rise on recession fears - as a rule of thumb. But that’s under monetary dominance, not fiscal dominance. The new rulebook will look very much like February into the April tariff terror event where dollar and bonds...
Bond Market: less than 1% probability of a Fed rate cut next week. Lloyd Christmas: so you're telling me there's a chance? https://t.co/29QHtCRSqe
IF-THEN I am growing in confidence we’re gonna hit 4.8% in the US 10 year yield this year - with potential overshoot of crude to $300 and 10Y to 5.8% in a real panic (outlier event). That's too scary to digest/trade but...
This could be an important chart. Discussing it today with members of the Factor community at https://t.co/gDeM5nTRIY $FGBL1! https://t.co/4KCxWZ88fE
March 3, 2026 edition of FFTT: "Iran doesn't need to defeat the US military; just the UST market" March 11, 2026: "S&P has warned that the Middle East conflict is beginning to strain credit channels across multiple sectors" https://t.co/pnftNUeht5
it's kind of neat, in all seriousness, to think that there is a whole new crop of investors that are growing up "knowing" that bonds sell off during uncertainty, volatility & turmoil... while many (not just the grey among us)...
Just curious, but when you have an 11% PIK, cov-lite bond on a corporate that’s 9x levered, who’s the logical buyer when there is forced selling?? Like can this go from 99 offered to 10 bid in a single trade…??
We have discovered corporate bonds. If you take on more risk, you get a higher return wow
Rather dramatic repricing of the Fed rate path vs 3 weeks ago before the Iran war. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.28 with odds increasing that cut cycle is already over https://t.co/VYJRS9oWdI
IG credit not happy in here (LQD/IEF) and that tends to be risk-off for equities. https://t.co/M9wDvl27Od
