Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership
US markets entered Friday with the dollar weakening after a probable ¥5.4 trillion ($34.5 bn) yen intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro climbed toward $1.1750 while sterling rebounded above $1.36, reflecting shifting expectations after five G10 central banks met. Futures now price two more hikes for the Bank of Canada, three for the ECB, and a hawkish hold for the BoE, leaving the Fed as the sole major central bank still expected to cut rates. US equities hit record highs, extending risk‑on sentiment into thin‑traded Asian sessions.
Households Shift to Short-Term Bonds After 2024 Rate Cuts
"Since the Fed started cutting interest rates in 2024, households have been buying the front end of the yield curve and selling the long end" -Apollo Slok
Madison Wealth Partners Puts $27 Million Into VictoryShares Core Plus Bond ETF
Madison Wealth Partners added 1.23 million shares of the VictoryShares Core Plus Bond ETF (UBND), a $27 million purchase that lifts its holding to 5.6% of its reportable assets. The move underscores a strategic shift toward fixed‑income stability as investors grapple with...
Central Asia Green Finance Grows, Led by Kazakhstani Private Sector
Kazakhstan has become the clear leader of Central Asia’s green‑finance market, with roughly $2.9 bn of the region’s $3.5 bn sustainable‑bond pool. The AIFC Green Finance Centre (GFC) acts as the only dual‑accredited verifier, built the regional taxonomy and helped launch the...
Seasonal Swing Trade In Bonds
The article outlines a seasonal swing‑trade framework for U.S. Treasury bond ETFs, primarily TLT, that exploits recurring calendar‑driven price biases. A backtest of 569 trades shows a 0.43% average gain per trade, a 60% win ratio and a 10.1% compound...
Record-Low Spreads on EM Asia High-Grade Debt Show Resilience
Emerging‑market Asian investment‑grade dollar bonds posted a record‑low spread of about 56 basis points on Thursday, the tightest level recorded since Bloomberg began tracking the index in 2009. The compression reflects a sharp drop in new issuance across the region...
U.S. Treasury Lifts Series I Bond Rate to 4.26% Through Oct. 2026
The U.S. Treasury announced a 4.26% annual composite rate for newly purchased Series I savings bonds, effective May 1 through Oct. 31 2026. The increase, driven by a 3.34% variable inflation component and a steady 0.90% fixed portion, revives interest in the government‑backed,...
Bunds Turn Overbought as ROC Flips up in Range
Bunds = OD up...quite a response for first flip up on ROC in trading range... https://t.co/fRfsIeT9Hd
Kaspi.kz (KSPI): 10 Best IPO Stocks to Buy in 2026
Kaspi.kz completed a $600 million senior unsecured note issuance due 2031, offering a 5.9% semi‑annual coupon. The notes were 3.5‑times oversubscribed, attracting roughly 130 institutional investors, and carry investment‑grade ratings of Baa3 from Moody’s and BBB‑ from Fitch. Proceeds will bolster...
U.S. 10‑Year Treasury Yield Jumps 6.4 Bps to 4.418%, One‑Month High
The benchmark U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield surged 6.4 basis points to 4.418%, its highest closing level in a month, after bond prices fell early Thursday. The move underscores how quickly Treasury markets react to shifting policy and macro data, with...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Mexico at BBB, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Mexico’s long‑term sovereign rating at BBB and short‑term rating at R‑2, both with a Stable trend. The agency highlighted the Sheinbaum administration’s fiscal consolidation, noting the public‑sector borrowing requirement fell to 4.9% of GDP in 2025 and...
Mayor Mamdani May Use DSA Rhetoric Over Bond Downgrade
We are still in city/state budget season and anything can happen. One potential "anything" is ... does Mamdani, like most mayors, run away from the prospect of any bond downgrade? Or does he employ this as part of a long-held...
Morningstar DBRS Finalizes Provisional Credit Ratings on Towd Point Mortgage Trust 2026-FIX2
Morningstar DBRS finalized provisional ratings for Towd Point Mortgage Trust’s 2026‑FIX2 HELOC securitization, assigning AAA to the $285.8 million Class A1A, $3.6 million Class A1B and $289.4 million Class A1 tranches, and AA to multiple $16.6 million Class A2 series. The transaction pools 3,601...
Morningstar DBRS Finalizes Its Provisional Credit Ratings on Chase Home Lending Mortgage Trust 2026-4
Morningstar DBRS finalized provisional credit ratings for Chase Home Lending Mortgage Trust 2026‑4 series. The agency assigned AAA (sf) ratings to senior classes representing roughly $2.5 billion of mortgage pass‑through certificates. The underlying pool comprises 428 prime jumbo mortgages with a...
Morningstar DBRS Releases Updated Monthly Canadian ABCP Report and Launches Issuer Performance Analytics Reports for Canadian ABCP
Morningstar DBRS has refreshed its Monthly Canadian ABCP Report, adding deeper insight into collateral trends and credit‑enhancement levels for publicly rated asset‑backed commercial paper. The firm also launched Performance Analytic Reports (PARs) that provide a visual snapshot of each ABCP note’s...
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely
Since April 17, U.S. Treasury yields and crude oil prices have risen in tandem, prompting a modest rally in bond markets. The move appeared to lack a clear economic trigger, with a brief “blow‑off top” followed by a reversal. Core PCE...
Now Is the Time to Rebalance Your Portfolio and Snap up These Bonds, UBS Says
UBS’s chief investment officer for the Americas, Ulrike Hoffmann‑Burchardi, says the S&P 500’s record highs create a strategic moment to rebalance portfolios toward high‑quality government bonds. Recent spikes in Treasury yields, especially on two‑year, five‑year and 10‑year notes, provide a “compelling...
PennyMac Brings $415.7 Million in RMBS to Market
PennyMac’s PMT Loan Trust 2026‑INV5 is launching a $415.7 million residential mortgage‑backed securities (RMBS) offering. The pool comprises 1,095 fixed‑rate mortgages, with 75.4% secured by investment‑property loans and the remainder by second homes. Tranches A‑6 through A‑30 carry a 5.00% coupon,...
Treasury's Hidden QE Fuels Reckless Economic Overheating
Policymakers are running the economy so unbelievably hot right now that I am starting to think it has approached or surpassed recklessness. The Treasury has completely taken over control of the money supply and financial conditions with their ongoing ATI/YCC...
Ethan Harris: Core Concerns, Fed Follies
The Loadstar premium piece aggregates recent Federal Reserve developments, noting a series of modest rate hikes, a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell, and mixed inflation signals that keep markets uneasy. Minutes from the last policy meeting reveal that a...
Municipal Advisor for PFA, CalCHA Defends Distressed Deals
GPM Municipal Advisors, the municipal advisor for California Community Housing Agency (CalCHA) and the Public Finance Authority (PFA), defended its role amid a wave of distressed workforce‑housing bond deals. CalCHA’s $2.5 billion portfolio of 14 projects has seven assets in default...
Falling Average Trade Size Shows SMA Demand, Growing Electronification
The average municipal‑bond trade size slipped below $204,000 in Q1, a 5% drop from the prior year, reflecting a surge in separately managed accounts (SMAs). SMAs now hold roughly $1.3 trillion in assets across about 180 managers, fueling a constant flow...
Moody's Knocks a Private Vermont College Deeper Into Junk
Moody's Investors Service downgraded Saint Michael's College, a small Catholic liberal‑arts school in Vermont, to a B3 rating, moving it deeper into junk territory from B1. The college carries $57.9 million of outstanding debt and has posted three consecutive years of...
Rates Paused, Borrowing Costs May Rise Soon
Interest rates on hold….but for how long? Here’s the lowdown on what could be a ahead for borrowing costs… #finance #money #costofliving #inflation #moneytok
Fed Holds Rates as Powell Stays, Raising Stakes for Stock Traders
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged in a divided vote and announced that Chair Jerome Powell will remain on the Board as a governor after his term ends. Powell's unprecedented move and the record four dissenters signal a...
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Mortgage Rates Likely to Remain Stable Amid Political Tension
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, a decision that keeps mortgage rates anchored despite a sharply divided FOMC vote. The move comes as Chairman Jerome Powell announced he will remain on the...
Oil Futures Surge as Fed’s Hawkish Tone Pushes Treasury Yields Higher
Crude oil futures jumped after the Federal Reserve issued a hawkish post‑meeting statement, citing elevated energy prices, while Treasury yields rose on the sell‑off in bonds. The dual shock sparked heightened activity in oil and Treasury options as traders priced...
Powell to Remain Fed Governor, Blocking Trump’s Board Appointment
Jerome Powell announced he will remain a Federal Reserve governor after his chairmanship ends on May 15, denying President Donald Trump a chance to install a new appointee on the board. The decision comes as the Fed kept its benchmark...
Treasury Department Announces New Series I Bond Rate of 4.26% for the Next Six Months
The U.S. Treasury announced that newly purchased Series I savings bonds will earn a composite rate of 4.26% from May 1 through October 31, 2026, up from the 4.03% rate that applied through April. The composite rate combines a 0.90% fixed component with...
Warsh Takes Fed Helm, Signals Lower Short Rates
Bonds have remained eerily quiet and continue to sit near the apex of a long triangle. With Kevin Warsh now about to take the helm of the Fed, we are about to enter what we might call the Warsh-Bessent Treasury-Fed...
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady for Fourth Straight Meeting as Inflation Risks Persist
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.5%‑3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, citing persistent inflation and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Inflation measured by the PCE index rose 3.5% year‑over‑year, with core PCE at 3.2%, while the unemployment...
Treasury Holds I Bond Fixed Rate at 0.90%; Composite Rate Rises to 4.26%
The U.S. Treasury announced that the fixed rate for new Series I Savings Bonds remains at 0.90%, while the composite rate—combining the fixed portion with the inflation‑adjusted component—rose to 4.26% for the current six‑month period. The increase reflects a higher...
Shapoorji and Pallonji Group in Talks with JPMorgan, BlackRock for High-Yield Bond Sale
Shapoorji and Pallonji Group is negotiating a high‑yield bond issuance with global investors, including JPMorgan and BlackRock, to raise up to $1 billion at a minimum 14% yield. The three‑year dollar bonds are intended to refinance debt of its subsidiary Goswami...
April 2026 PFF Rebalance
The April 2026 rebalance of the iShares Preferred Stock ETF (PFF) shows the fund acting as a net seller, with only modest changes compared to March. Most holdings will face slight selling pressure relative to their averages. No new preferred‑stock...
How Does a Bond Ladder Work?
iShares, a BlackRock brand, now offers an interactive tool that lets investors assemble a bond ladder using target‑maturity ETFs from providers such as Invesco, Vanguard and State Street. By allocating capital across funds that mature in successive years, investors can...
Bank Savings Earn 0.01%, T‑Bills Yield 3.5%
Big banks rip you off. BoA, Chase, and Wells Fargo pay ~0.01% interest on your savings. They earn BILLIONS off your cash by lending it out at 6.5 Instead of keeping your savings there, consider Treasury Bills paying ~3.5%, state tax free, backed...
Fitch: U.S. Debt Levels Exceed Peer AA Nations
"Fitch Warns US Debt Burden Is ‘Far Above’ Other AA Rated Nations" None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/bA3E6txTHG https://t.co/jfpiadGKWT
Powell Stays on Fed Board, Blocking Trump Appointee, as Treasury Yields Hit 5%
Jerome Powell announced he will remain a Fed governor after his term as chair ends on May 15, effectively denying President Donald Trump a seventh board seat. The Federal Open Market Committee kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% and...
Brazil Slashes Rates Again, Down to 14.5%
Global Central Bank Update: -Brazil cut rates for the second month in a row, 25 bps move down to 14.50%. https://t.co/a53O5fczcP
Rate Cuts Done, Fed May Hike by 2027
The interest rate cutting cycle is officially over. With previously forecast rate cuts off the table, the market is now pricing in 50% odds the Fed will hike rates by April 2027. Position accordingly. https://t.co/LBGUwo4wXJ
Senate Advances Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair Nomination as Powell Stays on Board
The Senate Banking Committee cleared Kevin Warsh’s nomination to become Federal Reserve chair on a party‑line vote, even as outgoing chair Jerome Powell announced he will remain a governor after May 15, breaking a 78‑year precedent. The move intensifies the...
10-Year Yield Near Breakout, Markets Brace for Volatility
US 10-Year Yields are approaching a crucial breakout zone—are we heading toward the final leg higher? This could trigger volatility across equities and signal a major macro shift. 👉 Read the full analysis: https://t.co/O1bdBUqOoi https://t.co/tP9WV8oG6w
ECB May Raise Rates in June If Energy Prices Hold
ECB officials see June hike if energy prices don’t ease first https://t.co/oOFKXlly37 via @Alemrome https://t.co/chZl06ltaV
What Did BoC, Fed Meetings Tell Us About the Path Ahead for Interest Rates?
The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve both left policy rates unchanged, maintaining a 1.25‑percentage‑point gap. Each central bank faces distinct challenges: the U.S. enjoys solid growth but wrestles with sticky inflation, while Canada grapples with weaker GDP...
Fed's Rate Moves Defy Crisis Predictions
The Fed kept rates at 0% for a long time Lots of pundits predicted it would lead to a crisis and maybe even hyperinflation Didn't happen Then they raised rates b/c of the pandemic inflation Still no crisis Why? https://t.co/JqtrhQ1AHs https://t.co/g75B9IkwoQ
Lagarde Signals Two Rate Hikes in March Forecast
Lagarde basically underwriting the idea that the baseline forecasts in March includes two rate hikes
Bonds Extend Downtrends – Oil and Ag Hit New Highs – Gold Oversold in Uptrend
The referenced article titled “Bonds Extend Downtrends – Oil and Ag Hit New Highs – Gold Oversold in Uptrend” is actually a subscriber‑only login page on TrendInvestorPro, offering no substantive market data or analysis. The page lists subscription benefits such...
Lagarde: Credit Tightening Signals Implicit Rate Rise
Lagarde emphasizes that credit conditions have tightened. It's important to note that rates have implicitly increased in face of the supply shock.
30‑Year Treasury Yield Hovers Near 5%
Lots of data... yields remain lower this morning... but that 30yr is still close to 5% https://t.co/ol2XJ3StCG
67‑Year‑Old Lifts 365
What’s the heavier lift: 365 lbs on your 67th birthday or telling your colleagues you changed your mind on rate cuts? Chris Waller seems comfortable with both. (He posted this video on his LinkedIn account) https://t.co/RIAIyJCkUm