Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
Catastrophe bond issuance in the first quarter of 2026 is projected between $6.34 billion and $6.54 billion, making it the second‑largest Q1 on record. February 2026 already broke the $2 billion threshold and March is on track to exceed $3 billion, setting new monthly highs. The outstanding cat‑bond market is expected to sit around $63.7 billion, roughly a 4% increase from the previous quarter. A $7.27 billion wave of maturities in Q2 will free substantial capital for fresh issuances.
The NYLI Hedge Multi‑Strategy Tracker ETF (QAI) offers investors hedge‑fund style exposure through a blend of ETFs and swaps, charging a 0.88% expense ratio and delivering a 1.47% trailing‑12‑month yield. Launched in 2009, QAI emphasizes high‑quality, floating‑rate investment‑grade debt and...
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% amid a sharp rise in 10‑year Treasury yields triggered by Middle East conflict and a surge in oil prices. The decision reflects a split inside the Fed between hawks demanding...
A senior unsecured note issued by a globally recognized technology infrastructure firm, rated BBB, is highlighted for its strong free cash flow and a nine‑figure order backlog that secures revenue for upcoming quarters. The bond currently trades at a spread...
Good Morning from Germany, where newly issued debt has so far not been used for investment, but rather to finance election giveaways & plug budget holes – once again proving the laws of political economy. Acc to Ifo, public borrowing...
US 30-Year Treasury Bond yields are testing key channel support levels—are we nearing an inflationary or deflationary recession? With the upcoming FED meeting and rising commodity prices, a breakdown here could dictate the market's next major move. Dive into the...
On March 17, 2026, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board voted 5‑4 to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, citing a resurgence of inflation driven by higher fuel prices from the Middle‑East conflict. Governor...
Rates moves from Jan FOMC to today are basically all in the front end https://t.co/z4SHlodCLM
FOMC day and "extended pause" hedging pressuring whites. 2026 cuts down to 23 bps. Of course, Fed has an opportunity reset all of this via FOMC statement, SEP, and presser. Should be a fun day https://t.co/pMoJFfaIiY
On Tuesday, U.S. investors pushed the benchmark 10‑year Treasury yield down to 4.202% and the 30‑year to 4.848% as they weighed escalating Middle‑East tensions involving Iran and a surge in oil prices ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision....
The 10-year Treasury yield (blue) has fallen, pulled down by expectations of Fed easing and a lower 2-year yield (black). But that's a deceptive picture. 10y10y forward yield is near record highs (red). Markets price big risk premia in long-term...
YIELD CURVE: doesn't care about Taco Time Trading, Tourists, etc. It cares about The Quads (i.e. The Cycle) #Quad1 peaked in early FEB and the #Quad3 slowdown continues in the real economy this morning https://t.co/KVMr12qbUs
On March 18, 2026, the Bank of Canada will release its scheduled overnight rate decision, a policy move that directly influences Canadian government and corporate bond yields. The announcement comes as the central bank projects inflation to stay near its...
While credit markets are open to many companies, they're starting to close for others. Qualtrics, which makes online survey tools, had to ice a $5.3 billion loan and bond deal due to lack of investor appetite. https://t.co/DE0BfMnHYT
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep its target federal funds rate at 3.5‑3.75% during the March 17‑18 meeting. AIER’s Monetary Rules Report shows that several rule‑based frameworks, including the Taylor rule and nominal‑GDP rules, imply a rate...
SES Financing S.à r.l., a wholly‑owned subsidiary of satellite operator SES, priced a €650 million PNC5.25 Subordinated Perpetual with Automatic Conversion Events (SPACE) hybrid security on 24 March 2026. The issue, carrying a 7.375% coupon and callable at par from 2031, was five...
Morningstar DBRS reports that Calgary has increased its commercial paper program limit to $500 million, up from $400 million, while maintaining an R‑1 (high) rating with a stable outlook. The city’s cash and investment portfolio stands at $7.1 billion, including $756.5 million of short‑term...
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $13 bn of 20‑year notes at a 4.817% yield, stopping 0.7 bps through the issue price. Bid‑to‑cover climbed to 2.76, outpacing the six‑auction average. Foreign indirect demand surged to 69.2%, the highest since April 2025, while direct bidder participation...
Every month someone publishes a higher default forecast. > Fitch: 5.8% actual > Morgan Stanley: 8% > UBS: 15% worst case Every month someone in the industry calls it irresponsible.
State Bank of India raised ₹6,051 crore by issuing a 10‑year Basel III‑compliant Tier 2 bond at a 7.05% coupon. The issue carries a call option after five years and on each subsequent anniversary. The bonds received bids roughly twice the ₹5,000 crore target,...
India’s central bank, the RBI, announced a premature redemption price of ₹15,814 per unit for the 2019‑20 Series IV Sovereign Gold Bonds, payable on March 17. The price, derived from the three‑day average of gold’s closing rates, translates to a more than...
Brazil's National Treasury announced an expanded bond market intervention after a sharp rise in oil prices lifted inflation expectations and pushed sovereign yields upward. The authority increased direct purchases and offered additional liquidity to stabilize benchmark rates and limit volatility....
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
Kuwait re‑entered the international sovereign market in September 2024, issuing an $11.25 billion eurobond – its first external debt sale since 2017. The issuance was enabled by a new debt law approved in March 2025 that authorises up to KD30 billion (≈$97 billion)...
Clifford Capital, a Singapore‑based infrastructure credit platform, completed its inaugural Australian‑dollar Infrastructure Asset‑Backed Securities (IABS) issuance, raising A$455 million across four tranches. The deal marks the firm’s first foray into the Australian market and represents the largest private placement of IABS...
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
The bond market is getting twitchy. Over the past 20 years, when credit spreads blew out but the S&P 500 wasn't even beyond a pullback yet, it was 3-for-3 in bear markets. h/t @sentimentrader https://t.co/xiba9GU3z2
The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield is projected to climb into a 4.25‑4.5% band before easing back toward 4%, driven by higher nominal and real yields after the war’s shock. Even as the conflict winds down, inflation expectations remain structurally elevated,...
Bonds rallying while stocks bounce. $TLT up 0.8%. In a real recovery, bonds sell off as risk appetite returns. This looks like a flight to safety dressed up as a relief rally. $SPY https://t.co/azWo3xSslp
Despite the recent steepening of the back-end, hard to fade and set up for next week's auctions with FOMC tomorrow. Fed clarification on how they view the recent crude inflation will have a strong impact on the...
Late 2025 saw long‑term U.S. Treasury yields climb even as the Fed signaled easing. The divergence stems from stubborn inflation, heightened global bond issuance, and waning central‑bank demand. Active managers now recommend tilting toward intermediate‑term Treasuries, high‑quality corporates, and municipals...
UK funds snap up gilts in a bet that markets have the BOE all wrong https://t.co/FFHExPNhxC https://t.co/0e6cHNIwPe
Is there ever NOT a "refinancing wall"? Feel like I've been seeing charts like that for 20 years...
Bank of America raised its 2026 forecast for investment‑grade debt sales to hyperscalers by 25%, now projecting $175 billion in total issuance. The bank still expects $65 billion of new hyperscaler bonds to be issued this year. The revision follows Amazon’s $54 billion...
The odds of a rate hike over the next three months is now higher than the odds of a cut. A month ago, no one would have believed this. https://t.co/a9K0cTXJS1
Rising U.S. private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, signaling credit stress & shadow banking risks. This erodes confidence in paper assets, investors flock to hard money with no counterparty risk. Bullish for gold & silver as safe-haven hedges. https://t.co/TcCYRkMkIZ
AI-driven data‑center spending is flooding bond markets with unprecedented infrastructure debt, exemplified by the $27 billion Beignet Investor joint venture between Meta and Blue Owl. T. Rowe Price warns that many of these bonds are concentrated in a handful of hyperscaler tenants, creating...
The dream comes with a price Awesome to see the demand All ZHCs will need treasuries
Preparation for liquidity crisis to minimize repo/money market volatility that are threatening credit spreads due to oil spike and growth contraction from Trump trapping US-Israel War on Iran. #HYOAS “The Fed now holds about $358B in Treasury bills. That’s higher than the...
Build America Mutual Assurance Company (BAM) saw Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) upgrade the outlook on its Fidus Re Series 2022-1 financial guarantee ILS to Positive, while reaffirming AA+ on the 2021-1 series and AA on the 2022-1 and 2025-1...
Sell-side is fading the war-inflation trade in the front end. The consensus? High energy prices are a growth killer, not a long-term inflation driver. For now, the tape is happy to ignore them.
Oil shock is reversing (Strait clearing narrative), curve flattening continues (rate hikes priced in), credit widening (HY spread breakout), and rent collapse vindicates office REIT pressure. De-escalation moves favor equities; watch if $94 oil holds or bounces.
Treasury yields slipped briefly on Monday but technical analysis suggests the decline is temporary. 5‑year yields, which fell to their lowest since October 2024, are still below the high reached in January and remain in a large‑degree B‑wave correction that historically...
Private credit default rate just hit 5.8%. Apollo down 41%. Blackstone down 46%. Blue Owl down 66% from peak. $265 billion in market cap erased. This is not a headline. It's a crisis. https://t.co/Am5fwWlQPj
State Farm has registered a new Bermuda special‑purpose insurer, Merna Re Enterprise II Ltd., likely to support upcoming catastrophe‑bond issuances. The move follows a decade‑long strategy of using Merna Re entities, which have funded $3 billion of cat‑bond protection and a...
Market relatively sanguine about longer term inflation. 5 year, 5 year forward inflation swap showing no angst despite crude elevating front short-term swaps https://t.co/b8Po5HE6EV
In 2022 Oklahoma issued $2.89 billion of utility bonds to recover costs from Winter Storm Uri, with $1.35 billion allocated to Oklahoma Natural Gas. Republican lawmakers filed a state Supreme Court brief alleging the Oklahoma Corporation Commission failed required audits of those...
Municipal bond mutual funds remain a top choice for risk‑averse investors seeking tax‑free income, trailing only government securities in safety. Zacks highlights three funds—Vanguard Intermediate‑Term Tax‑Exempt (VWITX), Eaton Vance Total Return Bond (EBABX), and American High‑Income Municipal Bond (AMHIX)—each holding...
JBG 10yr Yield back to signaling Bullish TRADE and TREND @Hedgeye with #Quad3 Inflation Accelerating https://t.co/qkWdn2Fxoe
Spanish Broadcasting System (SBS) missed its March 1 deadline on $310 million senior secured notes and entered a 30‑day creditor standstill. Majority holders of the 9.750 % notes have agreed to forbear while negotiations explore new financing, term extensions or restructuring. SBS reported...
