Today's Bonds Pulse
Treasury yields dip as US‑Iran deal eases Middle‑East tension
Yields fell across the curve on June 15 after the United States and Iran announced a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The two‑year rate slipped to 4.03% and the 10‑year to 4.43%, the lowest levels since early May, while market odds of a Fed hike by December fell to 60%.
Fed Data Suggest Japan Sold U.S. Debt Amid Intervention
The Federal Reserve reported a $8.7 billion drop in its custody of marketable U.S. Treasuries, bringing the total to $2.73 trillion for the week ending May 6. The decline coincides with Japan’s Ministry of Finance spending roughly $55 billion to support the yen, suggesting the Japanese government may have sold U.S. securities to fund the intervention. Analysts warn that repeated Treasury sales could add upward pressure on U.S. yields, already climbing on higher oil prices and fiscal‑deficit concerns. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is slated to meet Japanese officials to discuss the moves.
Sticky Inflation Turns Junk Bonds Into Attractive Carry
Geopolitics & sticky inflation are creating a wild bond market. The surprise? It’s making high-yield "junk" bonds look attractive for carry. Defaults stay low, so investors are reaching for that extra yield. 📈 HighYieldBonds
Janus Henderson Shifts to Defensive Stance After Q1 Edge
Janus Henderson Flexible Bond Fund slightly edged its benchmark in Q1 📈. Managers leaned into risk-on trades like corporate bonds & Japan duration, but are now playing defense—trimming duration & staying cautious on high-yield. A "two-way market" ahead with tariffs...
Why Unconstrained Bonds Matter Now for Asia’s Wealth Investors
BNP Paribas Asset Management’s global absolute‑return bond strategy is positioned as a core, evergreen solution for Asian wealth investors facing heightened market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. The unconstrained mandate targets a soft 12‑month drawdown ceiling of ‑2.5 % while seeking positive returns in...
30‑Year Mortgage Rate Stays at 6.37% as 10‑Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4.37%
The average 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage held at 6.37% on Thursday, matching a rise in the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.37%. The uptick reflects renewed bond‑market volatility driven by higher oil prices and geopolitical tension, keeping borrowing costs elevated for prospective...
UCITS Cat Bond Fund Assets Rise 6.5% YTD in 2026, Near $20.5bn After April
UCITS catastrophe bond funds added $650 million in April, pushing total assets under management to $20.5 bn, a 6.5% year‑to‑date increase. The sector, now composed of 20 pure UCITS funds, has grown 133% since the end of 2022 and accounts for roughly...
Tax Exemption, Medicaid Funding Are Top Muni Pros' Concerns
The Bond Buyer’s 2026 Policy Pulse Survey of 82 municipal finance professionals reveals deep anxiety over federal policy, especially the tax‑exempt status of muni bonds, Medicaid funding volatility, and trade‑tariff shifts. Roughly 75% of respondents see a negative impact on...
With Fixed Income, It’s Time to Think About Outcomes
Passive bond ETFs tied to the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index have long been the go‑to for risk‑averse investors, but their static composition leaves out key segments such as floating‑rate debt and non‑agency credits. Janus Henderson argues that the index’s heavy...
Geopolitics, Inflation, and a Bond‑Market Surprise in Favor Of Junk
The VanEck Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF (HYEM) has risen 0.9% since the Middle East conflict began on Feb. 28, standing out as a rare positive performer among foreign‑currency bond funds. By contrast, U.S. and global investment‑grade bond ETFs remain...
Oil Shock to Accelerate Long‑Term Yield Rise
I'm doing my usual live stream tomorrow morning at 9 am (ET). I'll be focusing on all things debt, especially the rise in long-term yields and why the latest shock - the rise in oil prices due to the war...
War Headlines Dampen Usual Pre‑auction Buying Optimism
Normally a nice level to love tap a few 5s before 3y auction on Monday, but war news and weekend headlines tough to ignore
U.S. Treasury Yields Jump 3.6 Bps as Crude Oil Prices Rebound, Pressuring Bond Prices
U.S. Treasury yields rose 3.6 basis points to 4.392% on Thursday, reversing earlier gains as crude oil prices rebounded. The shift pushed the ten-year note into negative price territory, highlighting a rapid swing in investor sentiment toward risk assets.
Gundlach Pushes Demand for His Own Holdings
Already taken 3x calls this morning on this nonsense story. Just Gundlach trying to generate demand for something he already owns. Create liquidity and get lower coupons bid up on the spline.
US Treasuries Focus on Soft Wages, Steady Unemployment
USTs keying on soft wages and steady UER and shaking off headline beat. It seems
State Action: AGs Warn Credit Rating Agencies on ESG-Related Fossil Fuel Company Downgrades
Twenty-three state attorneys general have sent a joint letter to Fitch, Moody’s and S&P Global demanding that the agencies stop using ESG criteria to downgrade fossil‑fuel companies and related state economies. The AGs allege the rating firms rely on undisclosed...
Issing in the Wind: Otmar Issing’s Strategy Explained
I call it Issing in the wind, after the guy - Otmar Issing- who came up with this strategy
BoJ JGB Purchases Neutralize FX Intervention, Yen Slides
The Yen is already falling again. Markets know Japan's official FX intervention can't work as long as the BoJ is buying JGBs to cap yields. That JGB buying puts depreciation pressure on the Yen, so intervention just gives markets a...
Bond Traders Price Over 50% Chance of Fed Hike by April 2026
Bond market participants are rapidly revising their outlook, with swaps indicating a greater than 50% chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates by next April. The shift reflects persistent inflation worries, the Iran conflict, and an upcoming change in Fed...
Rising Spreads, Falling
US Corporate Spread "risk" is the inverse of Profit Growth - we remain long High Yield https://t.co/IbOVfjy8fw
China Hongqiao Group Issues Rmb10.2bn Convertible Bond
China Hongqiao Group, the HKEX‑listed aluminium giant, issued RMB 10.2 billion (≈US$1.49 billion) of zero‑coupon, US‑dollar‑settled convertible bonds due 2027. The issuance was completed on May 5 alongside a concurrent share‑repurchase program. Hongqiao plans to use the proceeds to stockpile bauxite, refinance existing debt,...
Citigroup Raises Tender Offer Waterfall Cap to $1.285 B, Adjusts Pricing on $4.75 B of Notes
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. announced on May 6 that it has lifted the waterfall cap on its self‑tender of three note series from $1.25 billion to $1.285 billion and disclosed the final pricing per $1,000 of principal. The move comes after early...
Municipal Bonds Hold Steady as Treasury Yields Rise 5 Bps
Municipal bond yields were largely unchanged Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields climbed five basis points, underscoring a divergence between state‑level financing and federal debt markets. Investors added $1.845 billion to muni mutual funds, while BofA priced a $206.94 million utility refunding for...
Deutsche Bank Flags Inconsistent Market Pricing as Iran Conflict Drags On
Deutsche Bank’s research note warns that markets are pricing the Iran conflict inconsistently across asset classes. Treasury yields have tracked oil prices, suggesting a prolonged inflationary shock, while equities have decoupled, treating the disruption as temporary. At the same time,...
Westlake Automobile's Latest ABS Raises $1.4 Billion
Westlake Services has launched a $1.4 billion asset‑backed security (ABS) backed by subprime auto loans, marketed under the Westlake Automobile Receivables Trust 2026‑2. The transaction features eight tranches, with class A notes carrying a 40.85% credit enhancement and subordinate tranches B‑E ranging from...
PIMCO Flags Widening Gap Between Core CPI and Core PCE as AI Fuels Inflation
PIMCO’s latest macro signpost reveals core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation surged to 4.1% in February 2026, while core CPI remains subdued, creating a 60‑basis‑point positive gap—the largest swing since 1985. The divergence, driven by AI‑related demand and energy‑price pressures,...
KBRA's April CMCM Trend Watch Shows Private‑Label CMBS Issuance Rebound to $42B YTD
Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) released its April 2026 CMBS Trend Watch, noting a rebound in private‑label CMBS issuance with 17 deals closed in April and year‑to‑date issuance climbing to $42 billion. The report also flags a 57.7% YoY jump in...
JPMorgan-Led Bank Group Braces for $500 Million Loss on Qualtrics Debt Restructuring
A consortium headed by JPMorgan Chase expects to absorb more than $500 million in paper losses on Qualtrics International’s high‑yield debt restructuring. The banks will use their balance sheets to finance a $5.3 billion acquisition of Press Ganey Forsta, creating the largest hung‑deal in...
Ecuador Raises $1 Billion in Dollar Bonds as Oil Prices Spur Demand
Ecuador sold an additional $1 billion of dollar‑denominated sovereign bonds, pricing the 2034 issue at 8.25% and the 2039 issue at 8.75%. The issuance taps stronger oil revenues and a resurgence of investor interest in emerging‑market debt.
The Market Is Paying You 7% to Lend to a Hundred-Year-Old Franchise. Value Worth Exploiting.
A century‑old franchise’s senior unsecured 2033 notes are yielding nearly 7% despite the company’s robust financial profile. The firm boasts over $8 billion in primary liquidity and less than $1.5 billion of debt maturing in the near term, while its top rating...
ETF of the Week: Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF (PCY)
In the latest "ETF of the Week" podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth and Money Life host Chuck Jaffe dissect Invesco’s Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF (PCY). The discussion highlights PCY’s focus on a diversified basket of emerging‑market government bonds,...
North Carolina Panel Approves $2.2 Billion in Borrowing
The North Carolina Local Government Commission authorized roughly $2.2 billion in municipal borrowing, targeting a range of infrastructure projects across the state. Charlotte will sell $215 million in bonds to build a fourth runway at its international airport and receive $530 million in...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms India at BBB, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS reaffirmed India’s long‑term sovereign rating at BBB with a stable outlook and its short‑term rating at R‑2 (high), also stable. The agency highlighted the country’s resilient macro fundamentals—$700 bn of foreign‑exchange reserves, 3.4% CPI, and a fiscal deficit narrowed...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms India at BBB, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed that India’s long‑term sovereign rating remains at BBB, while its short‑term rating stays at R‑2 (high). Both the foreign and local currency issuer ratings were reaffirmed, and the trend on each rating is Stable. The agency’s assessment...
Kansas Gets Positive Rating Outlook From Moody's
Moody’s upgraded Kansas’s credit outlook from stable to positive, highlighting the state’s strengthened governance, a robust budget‑stabilization fund and higher pension contributions. Governor Laura Kelly said the shift reflects eight years of fiscal discipline, including a $2 billion rainy‑day fund and...
Why Stocks and Bonds Are Responding Differently to the Iran War
The U.S. equity market has surged to fresh highs even as the Iran war pushes oil prices and inflation upward, while the bond market has slipped under the same pressures. Stocks—both domestic and international—have rebounded strongly since the March dip,...
EM Fixed Income: Parsing Peace Talks and Payrolls
In this episode of Emerging Market Fixed Income, JPMorgan strategists Aneska Christovova, Ben Ramsey, and Tanya Escobedo dissect the latest Middle East cease‑fire talks, U.S. non‑farm payroll data, and their ripple effects across EM FX, sovereign credit spreads, and local...
HYBI: A Better Choice In 2026 Than Its Underlying ETFs SPHY, USHY And HYLB
The NEOS Enhanced Income Credit Select ETF (HYBI) targets roughly an 8% annualized distribution by layering a S&P 500 put‑options overlay on high‑yield bond ETFs. Its net yield advantage over the underlying SPHY, USHY, and HYLB is modest—about 50–100 basis points—while...
ECB Report Shows Euro‑Area Financial Integration Gains Amid Ongoing Market Fragmentation
The European Central Bank released a new report today indicating that euro‑area financial integration has improved markedly since late 2022, driven by higher cross‑border debt holdings and interbank lending. At the same time, equity market fragmentation and weak external financing...
Foreign Demand for U.S. Treasuries Stalls as Investors Shift to Other Sovereigns
The Institute of International Finance said foreign investors have stopped adding to U.S. Treasury holdings, keeping net purchases flat this year while increasing purchases of Japanese and European sovereign debt. The shift reflects growing concerns over the United States’ mounting...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Credit Ratings on Two TAGUS - Sociedade De Titularização De Créditos, S.A. (Ulisses Finance)
Morningstar DBRS confirmed the credit ratings on two Portuguese auto‑loan securitizations, Ulisses Finance No.2 and No.3. Senior Class A and B notes in both deals remain at AA (high) while lower tranches range from A to B, with No.3’s Class...
Macro Matters: BI’s Ira Jersey Talks Fed & US Rates Outlook
In this 11‑minute Macro Matters episode, Bloomberg Intelligence chief interest‑rate strategist Ira Jersey outlines the Fed’s likely stance over the next two to six months, predicting a hold on policy through at least September and noting the difficulty of cutting...
Bill Campbell on Global Bond Markets and Powell's Parting Gift | Bloomberg TV
Bill Campbell of DoubleLine warns that developed‑market sovereign debt is losing its safe‑haven edge as rising deficits and larger social‑safety nets erode fiscal discipline. At the same time, emerging markets have tightened budgets, narrowing the credit quality gap and prompting...
Apollo to Start Reporting Daily Prices for Private Markets
Apollo Global Management announced it will price over $830 billion of its private‑credit assets daily by the end of September, extending daily pricing to all corporate investment‑grade fixed‑income assets by June 30 and to direct‑lending and asset‑backed finance assets by September 30. The...
Gilt Rout Sparks Calls for Bank of England to Slow ‘Unusual’ Bond Sale Programme
The Bank of England’s aggressive quantitative‑tightening (QT) programme has driven UK gilt yields to their highest levels this century, with the 30‑year gilt hitting 5.76% after a sharp sell‑off. A new BoE paper estimates the taxpayer’s cost of unwinding QE...
IQI: Rate Environment Changes With Discount Not Looking Appealing
Invesco Quality Municipal Income Trust (IQI) remains on a “Hold” rating as its narrow discount and a stalled Fed rate‑cut cycle erode appeal. The fund offers a high 7.71% distribution yield, but only about 63% of that is covered by...
No Rate Cuts
Until the conflict ends, no rate cuts. You would need to see a big rise with duration with jobless claims data for the hawks to budge now
Inflation Outlook: Was I Too Pessimistic?
Brian Romanchuk notes that the 5‑year breakeven inflation rate has edged higher but remains well below the spikes seen after the pandemic and the Ukraine war. He argues the recent oil price shock and Gulf tensions represent a one‑off event...
Bolivia Is Tapping Global Bond Markets for First Time Since 2022
Bolivia is re‑entering international capital markets for the first time since 2022, as its newly elected market‑friendly administration seeks fresh financing. The government plans to issue benchmark‑size dollar bonds with a five‑year maturity. Early price talks suggest yields in the...
Alphabet Launches €9 Bn Eurobond and C$8.5 Bn Canadian Dollar Bond
Alphabet Inc. filed concurrent SEC‑registered offerings of €9 bn in euro‑denominated senior notes and C$8.5 bn in Canadian‑dollar senior notes, slated to close on May 11, 2026. The dual‑currency issuance, the largest sovereign‑currency bond program by a tech giant this year, will...
Kin Insurance Issues $335 Million Catastrophe Bond, Expanding Storm Coverage Nationwide
Kin Insurance closed a $335 million catastrophe bond, its biggest ever, to secure multi‑year storm protection for homeowners beyond Florida. The deal, its fourth CAT bond, attracted record pricing and investor demand, underscoring the rising role of capital markets in insurance...