Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
Fitch Ratings upgraded Tenet Healthcare’s credit rating to BB from BB‑, citing a stronger competitive position and improved liquidity. The for‑profit system posted double‑digit revenue growth in its high‑margin ambulatory surgery segment and sold 14 hospitals, funding a $2.1 billion debt reduction. Fitch expects Tenet to keep EBITDA leverage below 3.5 times while pursuing M&A and de novo expansion. The rating upgrade also reflects Tenet’s full ownership of Conifer Health Solutions and its dominant USPI ASC platform.
Corporate bond yields rose Tuesday as credit spreads showed early signs of widening amid the Iran war. The Morningstar US Corporate Bond Index spread, which had narrowed to 0.83 percentage points before the conflict, is now inching higher, signaling renewed...
Illinois is set to re‑enter the municipal bond market next week with a $1.4 billion general‑obligation issuance. The proceeds will fund accelerated pension‑benefit payments, the Rebuild Illinois capital program, IT upgrades and other infrastructure projects. The deal includes a $200 million taxable...
The European Central Bank kept its three key policy rates unchanged on 19 March 2026, maintaining the deposit facility at 2.00 %, the main refinancing rate at 2.15 % and the marginal lending facility at 2.40 %. It highlighted that inflation is hovering around the...
The 2024 SteerCo playbook: Go super-senior, get fees, get paid. The 2026 SteerCo playbook: Go super-senior, get fees, get stuck with new money that’s now also distressed.
Allstate reported a $140 million pre‑tax catastrophe loss for February 2026, raising its current aggregate risk‑period losses to $3.072 billion. Year‑to‑date pre‑tax losses now total $315 million, with after‑tax figures at $249 million. Severe convective storms in March could add low‑to‑mid‑single‑digit billions in insured...
The Metropolitan Government of Nashville and Davidson County is set to price about $502 million of general‑obligation refunding bonds on March 19, led by BofA Securities and Morgan Stanley. The Series 2026D issue carries AA‑plus ratings from S&P and KBRA and yields ranging...
The US 10yr yield is up about 35 bp since the start of the war and the 2yr yield is up about 43 bp. The 2yr break even is up 57 bp to 3.38% and the 10yr breakeven is...
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
Bayport Financial Services Mozambique issued a MZN 600 million dual‑tranche bond in October 2025, earning the Best Local Currency Bond – Financial Institutions award from Global Banking & Markets. Standard Bank acted as co‑arranger and bookrunner, guiding the structure and securing regulatory approvals....
10y UST yields (blue, RS) v. USDCNY (red, LS), since Russia invaded UKR in Feb-22. Something changed in late 2025 (stronger CNY v. USD and higher 10y UST yield, instead of lower.) https://t.co/hW48oZdc2B
Bond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down. But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context https://t.co/0XZ6rkEoI5 https://t.co/ZYPLRQgVkY
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate in the 3.50%-3.75% band on March 18, 2026, prompting the 10‑year Treasury yield to climb 5.5 basis points to 4.256% and the 2‑year to 3.741%. The move sparked a broad‑based rise in yields...
"Wave digital is going to issue the first rated bond COLLATERALIZED by Bitcoin," says @EmanAbio https://t.co/oU2EeDw6Mf
1.89 10 year tips real yield. Meh. Not much return yet in the benchmark asset on earth. Less than 3 months ago.
Amundi has listed its Global ex‑US Government Bond UCITS ETF (ticker GXUS) on the London Stock Exchange. The physical, sampling‑based ETF tracks the Bloomberg Global Treasury Large Markets DM ex US Index, providing exposure to investment‑grade sovereign debt from developed...
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
I mean, why would they signal this when they just got ahead of the curve with their new forecasts ... I have two hikes in my fct (in June/July), but judging by the overall tone today and new forecasts I...
A new VoxEU column by Jiang, Lustig, Van Nieuwerburgh and Xiaolan examines three centuries of U.S. and U.K. war and pandemic episodes. Their analysis shows that sovereign bonds, traditionally viewed as safe havens, have repeatedly suffered large real‑term losses during...
The Polymarket odds of "no rate cut in 2026" continue to generally track the 2-year yield https://t.co/VY0P2eN1XO
The 2 year U.S. Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points in less than three weeks. It now suggests one Fed HIKE may be coming.
Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) priced a three‑year panda bond worth RMB 5 billion at a 1.83% yield on March 18, marking a notable entry into China’s offshore yuan market. In the same month, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas each issued panda bonds exceeding RMB 5 billion,...
It's funny that long term US treasuries is where people are putting their money today. They make more folks.
Why is the UK always the source of curve instability? Brexit, Truss and now this
The five‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 2.66%, marking a 0.26‑percentage‑point increase since the onset of the war. The rise is captured alongside the DKW model’s inflation expectations, both plotted against the Treasury spread. A parallel chart links...
UK 2 year yield + 23bps UK 5 year yield +22bps UK 10 year yield +13bps About that fiscal headroom 🤔
HSBC Holdings sold $2.5 bn of Additional Tier‑1 (AT1) bonds in Hong Kong, the first major‑currency AT1 issuance since the Iran‑related market freeze. The two perpetual tranches were priced at 6.75% and 7% yields, reflecting strong investor appetite and a half‑percentage‑point...
Market pricing now shows a 19.2% chance of a Fed rate hike by June, overtaking the 17.3% probability of a cut. The shift stems from a perfect storm of cost‑push inflation and heightened geopolitical risk, notably the U.S.–Iran conflict driving...
Moody's downgraded New York's Metropolitan Opera Association to Caa1 from B3, pushing it deeper into junk territory, and lowered The New School's rating to Baa1 from A3. The Met faces a $120 million endowment draw, $178 million debt, and liquidity constraints with...
Municipal bonds were largely unchanged Wednesday while U.S. Treasuries slipped after the Federal Reserve left rates steady. The Investment Company Institute reported $782 million of weekly inflows into municipal bond funds, following $1.452 billion the week prior, and ETFs attracted $903 million. Raymond James...
U.S. District Judge Laura Taylor Swain urged the Puerto Rico Oversight Board to consider a contingent vehicle instrument (CVI) in its PREPA plan of adjustment as parties grapple with the size of bondholders' secured claim. The board has offered bondholders...
JUST IN: The Fed leaves rates unchanged (3.5 to 3.75%). **The projection is for 1 rate cut in 2026** 11 Fed leaders voted for this Only 1 dissent (Trump official Stephen Miran) The statement says: "The implications of developments in the Middle East...
Crypto exchange Kraken has put its planned IPO on hold, citing weak market conditions, after dismissing its CFO earlier this year. Meanwhile, a consortium of banks led by JPMorgan launched an $18 billion debt package to finance Electronic Arts’ $55 billion leveraged...
Municipal bond investors remain unfazed by the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict, viewing munis as a domestic safe‑haven despite rising oil prices and Treasury yields. New‑issue issuance dipped below $10 billion this week, yet demand stayed strong, with several deals oversubscribed. Transportation‑related credits, especially...
Short‑term bond ETFs remain a practical choice despite recent rate cuts, offering investors low‑cost exposure to conservative fixed‑income assets. While longer‑duration bonds promise higher yields and greater price sensitivity to rate moves, short‑term funds excel as liquid savings tools and...
A rate hike in 2026 is on the board for the first time in the futures market.
The Federal Reserve will announce a hold on its benchmark rate at the March 2026 meeting, while 10‑year Treasury yields slipped to 4.202% amid soaring oil prices and heightened Middle East tensions. Market participants cite a near‑certain pause, internal disagreements...
The municipal bond market faces heightened credit stress in 2026, but actual bankruptcies remain uncommon. While the ratio of upgrades to downgrades tightens, sector‑specific risks are emerging in project finance, housing, and healthcare issuances. Chapter 9 remains limited to municipalities, with...
Bond traders are rapidly unwinding short bets on U.S. Treasuries as confidence returns that the Federal Reserve can deliver at least one 25‑basis‑point rate cut by the end of 2026. The two‑year yield slipped roughly 10 basis points after peaking...
When you see markets pricing in no chance of a cut in April, and less than a cut this entire year, and we are still talking about the possibility of three dissents against holding rates constant today, you realize how...
Remember my Manifesto? He’s legally elected FOMC Chair through December 31, 2026 regardless of who’s Chair of the Fed Board “Powell would also be eligible as a governor to remain in charge of rate-setting FOMC, potentially extending his influence over monetary...
Two-year Treasury yields up to 3.731% for the session and at some of the highest levels of the past three months https://t.co/yjJZJiv8JX
the significant part is Powell's relatively lukewarm support for looking through energy prices. 5 years of missing their target is clearly bothering them. They are gonna need to see genuine economic weakness to cut again
USTs pressured lower by Powell's comment that breakeven rate for new jobs is very low
So mid-year is when we should start to see progress on core inflation. Probably resets “good news” cut clock to like September.
No change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections, but interestingly, median FOMC participant sees long-run growth now at 2% (up from 1.8% in December) and R* at 1.1% (up from 1%). https://t.co/dAHaot3Kk4
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot”...
2-Year Treasury yield (blue line, market expectations of Fed policy) > Federal Funds Rate (red line, actual policy) suggests Fed is unlikely to cut. https://t.co/7odcQloUt0
Expectations are building for a rate cut There’s a 37% probability the June FOMC will cut 25bps Powell has been the last line holding rates as President Trump publicly pushed to lower June is also the first Fed meeting where Powell is not...
