Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
IFC Advisors Puts $62 Million Into Angel Oak Income ETF Amid High‑Yield Bond Surge
IFC Advisors LLC acquired roughly 2.97 million shares of Angel Oak Income ETF (CARY) for an estimated $62.2 million, representing 8.8% of its reportable U.S. equity assets. The move, disclosed in an SEC filing on May 4, 2026, underscores growing investor appetite for high‑yield structured credit. The high‑yield ETF’s near‑6% yield positions IFC to capture income in a market still hungry for yield.
Sanjay Malhotra: Indian Financial Markets - Resilience and Resurgence
At the 25th FIMMDA‑PDAI Annual Conference, RBI Deputy Governor Sanjay Malhotra highlighted India’s macro‑economic resilience and the ongoing deepening of its financial markets. He noted an average 8.2% GDP growth from 2021‑25, inflation consistently below the 4% target, and foreign‑exchange...
Climate Governance Now Shapes Governments’ Borrowing Costs
New research covering 31 OECD economies shows that sovereign bond markets already embed climate‑transition risk in yields. Investors differentiate between mere climate ambition and credible governance, rewarding countries with strong institutional capacity and green infrastructure with lower borrowing costs. A...
Bonds Under Fire, Yet Remain Reliable Anti‑Growth Asset
Man my feed is hating on bonds today. Bad takes everywhere "The death of" every portfolio that includes bonds story "Inflation B/E's" unanchored. "10 year returns on TLT" or "Global Fixed Income" negative "Why would you own bonds" Imho bonds are meh...
Hard Lessons: Rick Rieder
In this Hard Lessons episode, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist Seth Carpenter interviews Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income and head of the Global Allocation Investment Team, who oversees roughly $3 trillion in assets. Rieder challenges the efficient‑market hypothesis, arguing...
NY Fed President John Williams Says Policy Ready Amid Middle East Uncertainty
New York Fed President John C. Williams told a New York audience that the Federal Reserve’s current stance is well‑positioned to handle heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. He projected 2‑2.25% GDP growth this year, unemployment around 4.25‑4.5%, and...
Middle‑East Tensions Push U.S. Treasury Yields Higher Across Curve
Geopolitical friction in the Strait of Hormuz sent U.S. Treasury yields up across the curve, the 10‑year reaching 4.44% (+6.6 bps). The rally in Brent crude to $114.44 a barrel and a revised Treasury borrowing estimate of $189 billion for Q2...
RBA Lifts Cash Rate to 4.35% and Warns of Further Hikes Amid Middle East Tensions
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.35%, with eight of nine board members backing the move. Governor Michele Bullock linked the hike to inflation pressures from the Middle East and fiscal stimulus,...
UK 10‑Year Yield Premium Hits Growth, Treasury
The yield gap between UK and German 10-year government bonds is now nearly two full percentage points ( Bloomberg data below). While global yields are up across the board, the economic implications differ: This "UK premium" creates a bigger headwind for domestic...
UK 30‑Year Yield Hits Highest Level Since 1998
UK bond selloff pushes 30-year yield to the highest since 1998 https://t.co/CNMg8iGy9M via @highisland https://t.co/jvM4S0LRPZ
SEBI Proposes Allowing Online Bond Platforms to Provide Access to Overseas-Listed Debt
SEBI has issued a consultation paper proposing that online bond platforms be permitted to sell debt securities listed overseas and regulated by the International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA). The change would bring bond platforms in line with stock brokers...
From Near‑Zero to 6%: Bond Yields Surge
In 2020, with global interest rates near 0%, Austria sold this hundred-year bond to investors. Today, the United Kingdom is offering almost 6% (5.77%) for 30 years, think about that. https://t.co/6DDMRv4cEL
UK 30‑Year Yield Peaks at 5.76%, Highest Since 1998
*UK 30-YEAR YIELD CLIMBS TO 5.76%, HIGHEST SINCE 1998 -- On September 27, 2022, the 30-year UK hit 4.99%. This was so intolerable that UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was forced to resign. Today, the UK's 30-year yield is 77 bps higher. https://t.co/NotUU2B1Gv
RBA Delivers Third Consecutive Rate Hike
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its official cash rate by a quarter‑point to 4.35%, marking its third straight hike. Eight of nine board members voted in favor, citing renewed inflation pressure from late‑2025 capacity constraints and a worsening Middle‑East...
10‑Year Inflation Expectation Peaks at 2.5%
Inflation expectations over the next 10 years have risen to the highest level since 2023, to 2.5%, according to breakeven rates. https://t.co/x2ujJFz6iY
Hedgeye Signals Bond Volatility Breakout, Review at 9 AM
Big @Hedgeye TREND Breakout for Bond Market Vol that I'll review on The Macro Show 9AM https://t.co/niZaSORuLS
Kazakhstan’s Bond Market Attracts Nearly $5 Billion in Foreign Capital, Official Says
Deputy chairperson Nurzhan Tursunkhanov said foreign holdings in Kazakhstan’s local‑currency government bond market have climbed to nearly $5 bn, more than double the $2 bn recorded last year. The surge, highlighted at the Asian Development Bank’s annual meeting, reflects growing trust in...
RBA Raises Rates to 2024 High Amid Stubborn Inflation
JUST IN: Australia's central bank hikes rates to the highest since 2024 as inflation remains elevated.
Bond Yields Rise, Yet Manufacturing Gains Momentum
Bond yields are rising on inflation fears while factory orders just posted their strongest gain in months and manufacturing keeps expanding. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ra2hKn68G2
Philippines' National Government Borrowings Drop 39.4% in March to $2.1 Billion
The Philippines' Bureau of the Treasury said gross national government borrowings fell 39.4% in March to P116.66 billion ($2.1 bn), with domestic debt plunging 70.4% to P46.76 billion. The decline reflects a front‑loading strategy, higher amortizations and external shocks from the Middle East...
Bond Market Flags Risk as 30‑Year Yield Tops 5%
The 30-Year Treasury yield closed above 5% today and it not far from its highest level in more than a decade. The stock market may be ignoring Iran and Inflation, but the bond market is not. Video: https://t.co/2JUqFjVZ49
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: Volatile Rates Ahead as Fed Turns Hawkish and Energy Shock Builds
Redfin economists warn that interest rates will stay volatile as the Federal Reserve adopts a more cautious, hawkish tone amid rising inflation and an escalating Iran‑related energy shock. Core PCE inflation remains at 3.2% YoY, the highest since late‑2023, while...
30‑Year Yield Breaks 5%, War Sparks Bond Vigilantes
Today, the U.S. 30-year benchmark bond yield pierced the important 5% resistance level, ending at 5.02%. Bonds severely underperform in wartime. With the war on Iran, the bond vigilantes ride again. They will teach WARMONGER Trump a lesson. https://t.co/sNxVUqdYwF
Fed's Dual Mandate Fuels Record Long-Term Rate Surge
Long-term Exploitation of Extraordinary Monetary Policy Tools, a Fed utilizing either side of it's Dual Mandate to justify lower, a lack of inflation, including CPI & PCE understating reality, helped foster the continuation of an incredible LT bull market in...
Stop Eurobond Breach
Kenyan auditor‑general Nancy Gathungu confirmed that about $222 million of Eurobond proceeds were diverted to cover Treasury bond shortfalls, breaching the bond’s subscription agreement and public finance law. Eurobonds, intended for development projects such as health, education and infrastructure, were misused,...
Corporate Pensions Hit 108% Funding, Sparking Surplus Era and Growing Plan Gaps
BlackRock’s latest Corporate Pension Peer Study shows the average funded ratio of U.S. corporate pension plans rose to 108% at the end of 2025, putting more than half of plans in full‑funded territory. Yet more than 20% remain under‑funded, highlighting...
Bond Yields Are Rising. Why That Could End the Stock Market’s Rally.
U.S. Treasury yields have surged, pushing the 10‑year rate above 4.5% and prompting a pullback in equities. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% while growth names like Amazon rose modestly and the bond‑focused TLT ETF fell 0.8%. Analysts warn that continued...
Dollar Gains 0.3% as European Stocks Slip 1.7% After Missile Hit on US Warship
The dollar index climbed 0.3% to 98.542 after Iran's Fars News agency reported two missiles hitting a US warship in the Strait of Hormuz. European equities tumbled, with the pan‑European STOXX 600 down 0.9% and the Euro STOXX 50 sliding...
Asia‑Pacific Dollar Bond Issuance Jumps to $38 B in April After Iran Ceasefire
Borrowers across Japan, Australia and South Korea flooded the market with $38 bn of dollar‑denominated bonds in April, the highest volume since 2021. The surge follows a temporary lull in the Iran‑U.S. conflict and has tightened spreads for Asian investment‑grade debt.
Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines
U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Monday as a wave of escalation headlines— Iran’s missile strike on a U.S. warship, UAE air‑defense alerts, and a fire at a UAE oil export terminal— pushed oil prices higher. The 10‑year Treasury rose from...
Rate Rebound Signals Bond Market Nearing Bottom
Hearing a lot of "the backup in rates" ... so you know we are near a bond bottom
Rates Spark: 10yr SOFR Hits the 4% Handle
On Monday the 10‑year SOFR rate climbed to 4%, up 50 basis points from the pre‑Iran‑war level of 3.5%. The rise places the rate in a zone the firm identifies as optimal for receiving fixed in swap‑to‑floating strategies, offering potentially...
JPMorgan Sees Higher NYC Downgrade Risk Amid Tax Pushback
JPMorgan strategists say New York City’s downgrade risk has risen as New York State appears unlikely to approve new revenue measures. The city faces an estimated $5.4 billion two‑year budget gap, prompting rating agencies to flag a negative outlook. Proposals such...
Critical Rate Threshold Threatening Big‑Cap Tech Stocks
At what level would long term interest rates need to be to negatively impact big cap tech stocks? $NDX
Long-Term Government Bonds Yield Negative Returns Since 2013
Long-term government bonds now have a negative return over the past 11 years (including the income) Also still currently in a 40% drawdown from the 2020 highs https://t.co/wxhG5NhiM6
Why I Am Downgrading TIP
iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) was downgraded from Strong Buy to Buy after delivering a 6.6% total return since April 2025, outperforming cash and comparable Treasury ETFs. The downgrade reflects tempered optimism amid attractive breakeven yields of 2.71% (5‑yr), 2.5%...
Oil Drives Bond Volatility, Raising Yields
Oil's impact on the bond market I would argue that oil (blue) is driving bond volatility (orange), not the other way around. That means wider daily ranges and, given the current environment, higher yields (>volatility = higher yields). https://t.co/oUEp8B4rEQ
Treasury Yields Surge; Fed Cuts Needed to Reach 6%
Bond Market on Edge: Treasury Yields Spike, 30-Year to 5.03%, Mortgage Rates to 6.52%, as Gulf War Reheats. Which raises a question: How many more Fed rate cuts would it take in this inflationary era to drive the 30-year Treasury yield...
PIMCO CEF Update: Valuations Compelling, PTY/PCN Strong Buys For 11%+ Yields
PIMCO’s closed‑end fund lineup, especially PTY, PCN and PDI, is trading at the cheap end of its long‑term valuation range while delivering yields above 11%. Leverage across the suite remains below historical averages, giving managers flexibility to boost net investment...
Rising Rates ETF Hits All‑Time High, Volume Surges
New all-time highs for this Rising Rates ETF that we put on the map (see when the volume spiked?) and @ProShares didn't even send me chocolates... $EQRR https://t.co/wMMrGk2rwf
Issuance, Geopolitics Weigh on Muni Market Participants
Municipal‑bond investors enter May facing an unusually large new‑issue calendar, with about $12.2 billion of tax‑exempt supply slated for the week—roughly a third of the 10‑year average compressed into a single month. Analysts expect strong demand for high‑grade issuers, but rate...
Brightline West Bondholders Give Company More Time to Raise Cash
Investors holding $1.8 billion of Brightline West bonds granted the railroad an additional three months to inject equity, moving the deadline to August 1. The company missed its March target to raise $400 million, a critical cash infusion needed to keep construction on...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for May 1, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields rose across the curve in the week ending May 1, 2026. The benchmark 10‑year yield increased by 8 basis points to 4.39%, while the 30‑year climbed 6 basis points, hovering near 4.45%. The 3‑year rate held at 3.91%, reflecting...
JPMorgan Sees Higher NYC Downgrade Risk Amid Tax Pushback
JPMorgan Chase strategists say New York City’s credit‑rating downgrade risk has risen. The warning follows a slowdown in New York State’s willingness to approve large personal and corporate tax hikes. Without those revenue streams, the city faces tighter fiscal options...
ADG 5/4: Dissents and Sensibility
Prediction‑market contracts on Kalshi show traders assigning GameStop only a 26% chance of completing a cash‑and‑stock acquisition of eBay by 2026, despite the deal’s $55.5 billion valuation far exceeding GameStop’s roughly $11.9 billion market cap. Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee recorded...
Zero‑probability Odds Rise with T‑bill Yields
While we should all hope for the return of the Lord and Savior, unfortunately, rising "odds" only reflect an increase in T-bill yields. Zero probability events should trade in line with the risk free rate + a platform and liquidity risk...
Barclays Predict No Fed Rate Cuts in 2026, Raising Bond Market Stakes
Barclays on Monday forecast that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at any point in 2026, aligning with a growing chorus of brokerages betting on a prolonged high‑rate environment. The note cites soaring energy prices from the...
California Budget Standoff: $12.2B Rainy‑Day Draw and $28B Borrowing Fuel Market Anxiety
Governor Gavin Newsom’s latest budget proposal reveals a $12.2 billion withdrawal from California’s rainy‑day fund and $28 billion in borrowing, while projected deficits of $27 billion through 2029 threaten fiscal stability. Investors watch the showdown for clues on bond yields and tax‑related equities.
Goldman's Latest RMBS of PRET Mortgages Raises $390.3 Million
Goldman Sachs is issuing a $390.3 million residential mortgage‑backed security (RMBS) called PRET 2026‑RPL2, backed by 2,417 seasoned and reperforming loans. The AAA‑rated A1 tranche will sell $295.1 million and carries a 20.4% credit enhancement, while the pool features a weighted‑average coupon of...
Long-Term Bond Duration Crushing Returns, Apple 2060 Halves
Duration is another hard asset driver - nearly every person on earth in long-term bonds has been losing money since 2022. *Apple 2.55s due 2060: 105 to 53. https://t.co/yTyInoASv4