Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China reduced its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline in four months and the lowest level since 2008. The drawdown follows larger sell‑offs during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing ordering commercial banks to liquidate $70‑$200 bn of T‑bills.
Nuveen highlights housing municipal bonds as an overlooked segment delivering attractive yields amid rising affordable‑housing demand. Issuance of housing munis has tripled since 2016, now representing about 7% of the $4.4 trillion municipal market, and 10‑year bonds yield roughly 60 basis points more than the broader muni curve. The firm’s CIO Dan Close recommends a barbell approach, combining highly rated single‑family bonds with higher‑yield workforce housing issues. The tax‑exempt nature also provides social benefits by reducing financing costs for developers and renters.
Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market: “Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first...
The episode examines how recent attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure are pushing oil and gas prices higher and the ripple effects on emerging market (EM) sovereign bonds, noting modest yield increases but overall resilience due to stronger fiscal positions...
Rik den Hartog, Co‑Head of Euro Credit at Loomis Sayles, outlined the team’s current focus on three credit market stressors: tightening supply dynamics, rising M&A‑driven leverage, and heightened rate volatility. He noted that constrained issuance is compressing liquidity, while deal‑making...
Active municipal‑bond ETFs have transformed a traditionally static fixed‑income segment by pairing tax‑exempt muni exposure with the liquidity and transparency of the ETF structure. The 2019 ETF rule spurred a wave of product innovation, allowing active managers to dynamically adjust...
In this episode, Chuck Jaffe talks with Nick Vendetti, senior portfolio manager at Allspring, about why municipal bonds are currently viewed as a safe‑haven asset amid heightened war‑related inflation risks. Vendetti explains that inflation is the primary enemy of income‑generating...
Municipal bond investors enjoyed credit stability from roughly $4.6 trillion of pandemic stimulus, but the federal windfall is ending, reviving credit concerns. Panelists at the Bond Dealers of America conference warned that tighter spreads will likely widen as states confront fiscal...
Nexstar Media Group announced a senior secured note offering exceeding $5 billion, aimed at financing its $6.2 billion acquisition of the former Gannett assets. The move follows Nexstar’s effective takeover of TEGNA and the conversion of TEGNA shares into Nexstar’s “NXST” ticker....
10y yield spikes as odd of rate hike before end of the year increases by 50% … Jerome Powell was right all along 😂
Global bond yields continue to climb: the UK 10-year has touched 5%, while the German Bund has crossed 3% and the US stands at 4.36%. Compounding the warning signs for the global economy, this comes amid an ongoing bear flattening...
The U.S. dollar posted mixed moves, gaining against the yen and won while slipping versus the euro, sterling and Canadian dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose five basis points, outpacing modest increases in Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Germany, while all four...
San Juan Unified School District has saved roughly $636 million in interest by issuing general‑obligation bonds with an average maturity of 17.23 years, far shorter than the typical 30‑year term used by most districts. The shorter‑term structure lowered the repayment ratio from...
UK government borrowing costs have surged, with the ten‑year gilt yield topping 4.9%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The rise inflates debt‑service obligations, pushing projected interest payments toward £110 billion this year and eroding the fiscal headroom Labour...
Småkraft AS announced that it has exercised the call option on its SMAKR02 ESG bond series and will redeem all outstanding notes. The redemption follows a refinancing under an amended and restated senior secured facilities agreement. All contractual conditions for...
The abrdn Income Credit Strategies Fund (ACP) has been downgraded to a Sell as its net asset value continues to erode in a deteriorating credit market. The fund’s 17.5% dividend yield is unsustainable, with more than half of distributions funded...
Nordic Credit Rating upgraded Norway‑based salmon farmer SalMar ASA to a BBB long‑term issuer rating with a stable outlook on 20 March 2026. The agency highlighted the company's strong profitability and moderate financial leverage as key drivers. The rating places SalMar in...
In this episode of At Any Rate, JP Morgan’s global rate strategy team breaks down recent dynamics in developed‑market (DM) swap spreads, highlighting how central‑bank policy expectations and technical factors drive the curves across the US, Germany, the UK, Japan and...
One Alliance North America Insurance Company is launching its first catastrophe bond through Bermuda‑based One Shield Re Ltd., targeting at least $100 million of multi‑peril reinsurance. The Series 2026‑1 Class A tranche will provide three‑year coverage for named storms across six states and...
And the sell side rolls in. April is punchy; I doubt they will see anything in the March HICP that scares them relative to the baseline. But the message is clear. Unless growth collapses they will hike, I think justifying...
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...
UK gilt yields surged to just under 5%, the highest level since 2008, as markets price in expectations of Bank of England rate hikes. Unilever entered talks to sell its foods business to McCormick, while discount retailer The Works saw...
$TNX Monthly. Head-fake lower last month. Surge higher this month. At apex of multi-year triangle. This is ideal bullish setup for rates on 10-Year to explode higher https://t.co/aCdWZY5Kd9
So how has the plan by @SecScottBessent to not term out the debt and keep rolling bills worked out?
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Market Probability Tracker released a revised three‑month average SOFR outlook covering June 2026 through December 2028. The new projection lifts the expected rate path relative to the February 27 forecast, placing the current target range at 350‑375 basis points....
The 10y10y forward Treasury yield (red) is rising towards its historical highs. If only we'd brought our deficit under control after COVID, then we'd now have more gas in the tank for emergency spending. But we didn't. Reckless fiscal policy...
"Foreign investors added $28bn of Treasuries in 4Q25, the softest quarterly pace of demand since 4Q19" --JPM
The Treasury announced a reopening of the 10‑year TIPS auction, delivering a real yield of 1.896%. The yield jumped noticeably, signaling heightened market sensitivity ahead of the weekend. Investors appeared reluctant to hold positions, prompting some traders to sit out...
Last year, a 4.50%-4.60% on the 10-year yield got the White House To Blink, with stocks falling. Now higher oil prices 🧙♂️🪄
10Y yield is still ripping higher in a straight line from that brief 3 handle tease. Market says, tighter for longer. $TNX $IEF https://t.co/dbZrSwrwwr
Fitch Ratings upgraded Tenet Healthcare’s credit rating to BB from BB‑, citing a stronger competitive position and improved liquidity. The for‑profit system posted double‑digit revenue growth in its high‑margin ambulatory surgery segment and sold 14 hospitals, funding a $2.1 billion debt...
It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference. https://t.co/lNilk5T2yz
The 10-year couldn't close above 4.3% yesterday, but is trying again this morning. Lot of whipsaws (in both directions) with this chart, but this would sure look like a breakout https://t.co/17G6Y8TtLa
Price is set on the margin. One underappreciated problem n today's global fixed income markets is that the biggest participants (bank, insco, pension) are indifferent among G10 sovereigns. Local problems relatively small market like UK Gilts can then force global...
Canada 5-year year yields... looking poised to move higher as they break to 14+ month highs... rate hikes on the horizon to battle inflationary pressures? https://t.co/3jtEuhVfkZ
Europe/UK back at it, forcing their rate hikes on us. April hike odds 12%... more than just noise
For for first time this cycle, a small rate increase by the Fed is now priced in by year end, 12%. And no rate cuts anymore
Key UK yield hits the highest level since 2008 as oil prices climb https://t.co/pWaz7E1WOL https://t.co/boVD8nEW6E
Reeves, Miliband and Bell will look at Gilts and go ... we need to spend more and raise taxes.
Makhlouf says an April ECB hike is possible if data signal there’s a need https://t.co/zEOl2Ko48A via @flacqua @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/IHW9dxYRHQ
it's 6am. i'm drinking black coffee. a @tradingview alert just buzzed in my pocket and appeared on my screen to tell me the Canada 5-year yield just broke out to 14-month highs > ~3.1%... 🧐 cool. https://t.co/IHj3aa1dV0
At the back of the yield curve, yields are moving higher across the board, and the UK 10-year GILT yield is testing the cycle highs from 2022. UK and US yields generally move in similar fashion, so this is something...
S&P to Cliffwater: if you keep honoring redemptions above 5%, we might downgrade you. So the choice is: gate your investors and keep your rating, or pay your investors and lose it. The product design is now working against itself.
The chart below shows that high yield spreads appear to have broken out of its longstanding range. https://t.co/XDtyd2lmpz
The heatmap below shows that expectations of further rate cuts have all but vanished. Meanwhile, stress in the credit markets continues to mount with both investment grade and high yield spreads making new wides, and the private credit sensitive equities...
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
10y UST yields (blue, RS) v. USDCNY (red, LS), since Russia invaded UKR in Feb-22. Something changed in late 2025 (stronger CNY v. USD and higher 10y UST yield, instead of lower.) https://t.co/hW48oZdc2B
Bond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down. But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context https://t.co/0XZ6rkEoI5 https://t.co/ZYPLRQgVkY
"Wave digital is going to issue the first rated bond COLLATERALIZED by Bitcoin," says @EmanAbio https://t.co/oU2EeDw6Mf
1.89 10 year tips real yield. Meh. Not much return yet in the benchmark asset on earth. Less than 3 months ago.
