Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
Climate Fund Managers (CFM) has entered a partnership with the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI) to create a dedicated platform for emerging‑market climate bonds, aiming to raise between $2.8 billion and $4 billion. The move signals a major infusion of fixed‑income capital into developing economies and could accelerate the growth of the global green‑bond market.
The Philippines will keep its 2026 borrowing plan unchanged, targeting roughly $48 billion with 77% sourced domestically and 23% from abroad. The peso recently slid to a record low of 60.30 per dollar, heightening foreign‑exchange concerns amid the Middle East crisis....
The T. Rowe Price Ultra Short‑Term Bond ETF (TBUX) crossed the $1 billion assets‑under‑management mark on March 4, buoyed by more than $100 million of net inflows in the prior month. Now in its fifth year, the fund charges a modest 0.17% expense ratio...
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, told CNBC that the market’s expectation of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts is eroding as inflation remains sticky and the two‑year Treasury yield sits above the policy rate. He highlighted a widening gap between calm...
Spain’s finance ministry has floated a new eligibility pathway that would allow sovereign bonds to be classified as sustainable under the EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR). The proposal seeks to broaden the pool of assets that can meet ESG...
Despite investors’ previous hopes for rate cuts, Trump’s war has worsened the Fed outlook — with markets now not expecting further cuts this year (or next). My @morningjoe Chart
UST and IG supply will be an added headwind for rates this week. The whole curve is trading above the Fed's overnight target range as rate cuts go on pause for now and hedging for a near term rate increase...
The article clarifies how municipal bonds differ from bank loans, emphasizing that bonds do not create money while loans do through deposit creation. It walks through a $900 bond issuance, showing how an investment‑bank underwriter sells the securities, deducts fees,...
and when you find yourself thinking that rates/yields are high, just remember, they're not... they rose for 40 years... they fell for 38 years... they bottomed (big time), almost 6 years ago... https://t.co/6tRJ9pYxtQ
when they tell you that rising yields $TNX are bad for stocks $SPX, just tell'em they're wrong... https://t.co/xFoneNHg9i
Investors shunned traditional safe havens as the Iran‑Israel war kept bond yields from falling, with the 10‑year Treasury yield easing to 4.35% and the dollar gaining only modestly against the yen. The muted flight‑to‑safety reflects uncertainty over any lasting de‑escalation.
On 23 March 2026 the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Minister for Pensions convened a meeting with economists from the primary dealer firms that act as wholesale gilt‑edged market makers (GEMMs) at HM Treasury. The session focused on the participants’ views...
Indian government bond yields slipped on Tuesday as Brent crude hovered above $100 a barrel and U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields steadied near 4.40%, the sharpest sell‑off since October 2023. The benchmark 2035 bond yield was expected to trade between 6.81%...
Asian corporate bond markets rallied on Tuesday as geopolitical tension eased following President Donald Trump’s remarks about ongoing talks with Iran. Credit default swaps on investment‑grade Asian debt fell by at least four basis points, signaling reduced perceived risk. At...
The Schwab Intermediate‑Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHR) is confronting heightened duration risk as inflation resurges from oil‑driven supply shocks. A 0.4 % increase in its yield‑to‑maturity has already erased roughly 2 % of the fund’s price, underscoring its sensitivity to a steeper...
Investors dumped $2.5 trillion of sovereign and corporate bonds in the past month as the Iran‑Israel war lifted oil prices and stoked inflation worries. The sell‑off marks the largest monthly loss since early 2023 and has pushed yields to multi‑year highs...
U.S. Treasury yields rose for a third consecutive week, with the 30‑year rate up 0.06 percentage points and the 10‑year climbing 0.11 points to 4.39%. The 3‑year Treasury held steady at 3.90%. The upward movement reflects market expectations of sustained...
Otero County, New Mexico, convened an emergency commission meeting on March 13 to approve a five‑year ICE contract that would fund a $5.26 million debt‑service payment and prevent default on $18.48 million of bonds tied to a 2007 jail project. The state attorney...
DBRS, Inc. assigned provisional (P)AAA(sf) credit ratings to all classes of the FREMF 2026‑K178 Multifamily Mortgage Pass‑Through Certificates and the Freddie Mac Structured Pass‑Through Certificates Series K‑178. The ratings, issued on March 23, 2026, cover Class A‑1, A‑2 and X1 for each series and are marked...
New York City is issuing $2.65 billion of general‑obligation bonds, but rating agencies Fitch, KBRA and Moody’s have shifted the city’s outlook to negative, citing a $5.4 billion budget gap and reliance on state‑approved tax hikes. The bond deal comprises four series,...
Municipal bond issuance is accelerating as data‑center projects drive demand for public‑power and water infrastructure, with demand projected to rise 20‑25% annually through 2030. While public‑power issuance is down 33.7% year‑to‑date, water‑sewer issuance is up 15.9%, and analysts forecast up...
The Federal Reserve left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75%, extending the pause announced in December 2025. Officials cited elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and the potential impact of Middle‑East tensions on U.S. growth....
$25B in orders on $EA’s $15B debt deal. Oversubscribed. Getting done. Capital markets are wide open… For the right issuers at the right price with the right Saudi SWF backstop.
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC he could envision the Federal Reserve raising interest rates if inflation accelerates amid the Middle‑East conflict, while also acknowledging the possibility of multiple rate cuts if price pressures ease. The Fed left policy...
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
U.S. Treasury prices have sharply declined as inflation concerns intensify, driven by surging energy commodities. Over the past month, long‑bond futures dropped six points and the 30‑year yield climbed roughly 30 basis points from its pre‑war low to 4.93%. The...
This is a US Treasury auction schedule and it’s actually a liquidity map in disguise. Here’s the simple breakdown:
"Bessent is obsessed with the 10-year. He can let the Brent Oil go up, but not the 10Y-Treasury." @perkinscr97 https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
The Federal Reserve has signaled no rate cuts until late 2026, disappointing many investors. With rates expected to stay steady and inflation still above target, fixed‑income managers are seeking duration‑neutral options. WisdomTree’s Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR), a $16.66 billion ETF...
Very Big Volume in Treasury Complex. Dimes (UST Classic 10 Yr Note Futures) have traded over 3.5 Million Contracts as of 1:40 pm EST.
Treasury bears tried to claw back after the 705am ET yield plunge, but the 2yr yield is back on the session lows... down 10bps to 3.81% https://t.co/Cq2pe8M3wf
At the Exchange conference, DoubleLine deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman warned that the market’s expectation of a quick Fed rate cut—dubbed the TACO trade—is premature. He said the Fed will stay on autopilot until labor market weakness appears, and he pinpointed...
Franklin Templeton’s February 2026 Muni Monthly is accompanied by an extensive legal disclaimer that emphasizes the material is for general interest only and not investment advice. The notice clarifies that past performance does not guarantee future results, highlights potential loss...
4.5% bond yields are too much for Bessent so he probably drafted the Trump statement about Iran talks. Irant not buying it https://t.co/I8PHct99Kf
Question from a macro-ignorant options guy: Credit issues get better with sharply higher interest rates, right? https://t.co/UdR6NlJ6OR
Nebius Group N.V. closed a private placement of convertible senior notes, raising roughly $4.3 billion. The offering comprised two series: 1.250% notes due 2031 and 2.625% notes due 2033, sold to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A. The capital will fund the...
Gilts face worst month since Liz Truss as oil spike jolts UK market https://t.co/hvaQFGeXXa via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/K33eBm9D5V
If credit markets continue slowing down because of straits of Hormuz oil shock and unemployment shoots up, Fed may have to announce an emergency half a point cut in next two weeks.
High‑yield bonds are trading at historically tight spreads, curbing any further price appreciation and leaving carry as the main source of return. Portfolio managers, like Veritas' Ville Iso‑Mustajärvi, warn that while the asset class still offers modest diversification, its downside...
Traders fully price 4 quarter-point hikes from the BOE in 2026 https://t.co/W64ms8NeB5 via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/61ntA97cXa
The Financial Times piece titled “Gilts: blame the hedge funds?” examines how aggressive hedge‑fund trading may be exacerbating volatility in the UK gilt market. It suggests that large short positions and rapid rebalancing are pushing yields higher, complicating the Bank...
Vanguard announced filing for a U.S. high‑yield corporate bond ETF (VCHY), slated for a June launch, finally entering a market dominated by iShares HYG and State Street JNK since 2007. The fund will track Bloomberg’s US High‑Yield $250 million 2% Issuer...
Japan is considering trimming its inflation‑linked government bond buy‑backs to about ¥15 billion per operation for April and June, down from ¥20 billion a month in Q1. The change follows a rise in break‑even inflation rates above 1.9%, indicating stronger investor demand...
"High-yield spreads rose to a 9-month high this week, and we’ve seen the largest weekly withdrawals from high-yield mutual funds since Liberation Day" --JPM
Investors have funneled more than $2.3 billion into the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF and $60 million into the Global X SuperDividend ETF this year, chasing yields that top 7%. The surge reflects a broader move toward high‑yield, bond‑like ETFs as traditional...
The ATAC Credit Rotation ETF ($JOJO) challenges the common belief that bond exposure should stay static, proposing a dynamic credit‑rotation framework. Portfolio manager Michael Gayed will detail this approach in a CE‑credit approved webinar on March 24, covering credit‑vs‑duration risk, utilities...
The Financial Times’ Katie Martin: “It is hard, in that environment, to pick the market moves that really matter. This week’s wild ride in UK government bonds is, I think, one of them. It is an early warning sign of...
Nasty open for USTs with front-end under the most pressure. 2y futs off 3.5 ticks
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
