Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
Morningstar DBRS Discontinues and Withdraws Rating on San Bernardino County Transportation Authority I-10 Express Lanes Project
Morningstar DBRS withdrew its credit rating on the $225 million 2021 TIFIA loan financing the San Bernardino County Transportation Authority I‑10 Express Lanes Project, acting at the issuer’s request. The loan, maturing on December 31, 2057, was rated under DBRS’s public‑private partnership and TIFIA‑specific methodologies. DBRS noted that environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations had no material impact on the analysis. The withdrawal does not imply a change in the project’s credit fundamentals.
Munis Steady, USTs Largely Ignore Jobs Report
Municipal bond yields held steady across maturities on Friday despite a stronger‑than‑expected 115,000 nonfarm payroll increase in April. Treasury yields edged lower, falling up to three basis points, as investors remained more focused on geopolitical developments in the Middle East...
Norway’s Central Bank Raises Rate to 4.25%, Triggering Euro‑Stock Volatility
Norges Bank unexpectedly lifted Norway’s benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on Thursday, citing inflation pressure from the Middle‑East conflict. The surprise move sent Norwegian bond yields higher and nudged equity valuations lower across the Nordics, with...
Dollar Hits Two‑Week High as Middle East Tensions Boost Safe‑Haven Demand, Treasury Yields Rise
The U.S. dollar rose to its highest level in two weeks on Thursday, while benchmark Treasury yields climbed amid heightened Middle East risk. Investors are seeking safety as the United States and Iran edge toward a limited cease‑fire, but lingering...
India's 10‑Year Bond Slides 0.9% in Worst Monthly Drop Amid Auction Rout and War Jitters
India's benchmark 10‑year government bond posted its biggest monthly loss this year, slipping 0.92% as a tepid auction and escalating US‑Iran conflict rattled investors. The government raised 340 billion rupees ($3.6 billion) in the new issue, but yields jumped to 6.98%, underscoring...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Republic of Poland at "A", Negative Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Poland’s long‑term sovereign rating at A with a Negative outlook, while short‑term ratings remain R‑1 (low) and stable. The agency highlighted a widening fiscal deficit of about 6.7% of GDP and a public‑debt trajectory that could climb...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Federal Republic of Germany at AAA, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS reaffirmed Germany’s long‑term sovereign rating at AAA and its short‑term rating at R‑1, with a stable outlook. The agency noted that despite widening fiscal deficits and a modest growth forecast of 0.5% for 2026, Germany’s credit fundamentals remain...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Federal Republic of Germany at AAA, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed that the Federal Republic of Germany’s long‑term foreign and local currency issuer ratings remain at AAA, the highest possible grade. The agency also reaffirmed Germany’s short‑term rating at R‑1 (high), indicating robust liquidity. All rating trends were...
Cash, Debt, Budget and Disclosure in Uncertain Times
Unpredictable federal actions in 2025‑2026—shutdowns, grant terminations and funding freezes—have left municipalities scrambling to align cash inflows with budgeted expenditures. Public‑finance professionals are urged to adopt real‑time treasury solutions that track actual bank activity, forecast variances, and enable rapid response...
AI Infra High‑Yield Bonds Double, Outpace 2025 Forecast
High-yield bond issuance for AI infra: 2025 full year: $13.5B 2026 YTD (through April): $26.6B Already doubled last year's total and ahead of most full-year estimates Source: Pitchbook
ONDO Surges 68% in a Week Amid US Tokenization Push
Ondo Finance’s native token ONDO surged 68% over the past week, reaching $0.45 and a $2.2 billion market cap after the DTCC named the firm in its tokenization working group. The DTCC plans to begin production trades of tokenized U.S. Treasuries...
How Politicians Should Talk to Bond Markets
Politicians increasingly need to tailor their language to sovereign bond investors, emphasizing credibility, consistency and clear fiscal roadmaps. The article argues that market confidence hinges on transparent policy signals rather than political rhetoric, especially ahead of elections or budget cycles....
Bearish Bond Divergence Signals Liquidity Stress Ahead
Curious… “The daily Advance-Decline (A-D) Line for high yield corporate bonds is making a bearish divergence versus the SP500. This is a concern because it conveys a message saying that there are liquidity problems.” @McClellanOsc I would say this is a...
Hong Kong Raises €750m From First Green Bond in 2026
Hong Kong’s monetary authority issued a €750 million ($882 million) green bond, marking the city’s first sovereign green issuance in 2026. The bond, the largest sovereign sustainable debt in the Asia‑Pacific region, is earmarked for renewable energy, clean transport and climate‑resilience projects....
UK 10‑Year Gilt Yields Slip to 4.85% as US‑Iran Deal Hopes Dim Rate‑Hike Odds
UK 10‑year gilt yields fell to 4.85%, their lowest since April 20, after investors trimmed expectations for Bank of England tightening. The move was driven by a U.S. memorandum to Iran that raised hopes of a peace deal, easing oil...
Justice for Covered Bonds (and Securitization)
The episode examines recent EU regulatory proposals affecting covered bonds and securitisation, highlighting the European Parliament’s approval of a 5% risk‑weighting for senior STS securitisation tranches while rejecting a similar reduction for AA‑ rated covered bonds. Panelists discuss the covered‑bond...
Sticky Inflation Turns Junk Bonds Into Attractive Carry
Geopolitics & sticky inflation are creating a wild bond market. The surprise? It’s making high-yield "junk" bonds look attractive for carry. Defaults stay low, so investors are reaching for that extra yield. 📈 HighYieldBonds
Janus Henderson Shifts to Defensive Stance After Q1 Edge
Janus Henderson Flexible Bond Fund slightly edged its benchmark in Q1 📈. Managers leaned into risk-on trades like corporate bonds & Japan duration, but are now playing defense—trimming duration & staying cautious on high-yield. A "two-way market" ahead with tariffs...
Fed Data Suggest Japan Sold U.S. Debt Amid Intervention
The Federal Reserve reported a $8.7 billion drop in its custody of marketable U.S. Treasuries, bringing the total to $2.73 trillion for the week ending May 6. The decline coincides with Japan’s Ministry of Finance spending roughly $55 billion to support the yen, suggesting...
Why Unconstrained Bonds Matter Now for Asia’s Wealth Investors
BNP Paribas Asset Management’s global absolute‑return bond strategy is positioned as a core, evergreen solution for Asian wealth investors facing heightened market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. The unconstrained mandate targets a soft 12‑month drawdown ceiling of ‑2.5 % while seeking positive returns in...
30‑Year Mortgage Rate Stays at 6.37% as 10‑Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4.37%
The average 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage held at 6.37% on Thursday, matching a rise in the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.37%. The uptick reflects renewed bond‑market volatility driven by higher oil prices and geopolitical tension, keeping borrowing costs elevated for prospective...
UCITS Cat Bond Fund Assets Rise 6.5% YTD in 2026, Near $20.5bn After April
UCITS catastrophe bond funds added $650 million in April, pushing total assets under management to $20.5 bn, a 6.5% year‑to‑date increase. The sector, now composed of 20 pure UCITS funds, has grown 133% since the end of 2022 and accounts for roughly...
Tax Exemption, Medicaid Funding Are Top Muni Pros' Concerns
The Bond Buyer’s 2026 Policy Pulse Survey of 82 municipal finance professionals reveals deep anxiety over federal policy, especially the tax‑exempt status of muni bonds, Medicaid funding volatility, and trade‑tariff shifts. Roughly 75% of respondents see a negative impact on...
With Fixed Income, It’s Time to Think About Outcomes
Passive bond ETFs tied to the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index have long been the go‑to for risk‑averse investors, but their static composition leaves out key segments such as floating‑rate debt and non‑agency credits. Janus Henderson argues that the index’s heavy...
Geopolitics, Inflation, and a Bond‑Market Surprise in Favor Of Junk
The VanEck Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF (HYEM) has risen 0.9% since the Middle East conflict began on Feb. 28, standing out as a rare positive performer among foreign‑currency bond funds. By contrast, U.S. and global investment‑grade bond ETFs remain...
Oil Shock to Accelerate Long‑Term Yield Rise
I'm doing my usual live stream tomorrow morning at 9 am (ET). I'll be focusing on all things debt, especially the rise in long-term yields and why the latest shock - the rise in oil prices due to the war...
10-Year Yield Above 4.5% Signals Trouble Ahead
All this may be happening when the long bond is coiling inside what looks like a bearish continuation pattern. Real rates are rising, as are inflation expectations via the TIPS market. Remember: nothing good happens above 4.5% (for the 10-year)....
U.S. Treasury Yields Jump 3.6 Bps as Crude Oil Prices Rebound, Pressuring Bond Prices
U.S. Treasury yields rose 3.6 basis points to 4.392% on Thursday, reversing earlier gains as crude oil prices rebounded. The shift pushed the ten-year note into negative price territory, highlighting a rapid swing in investor sentiment toward risk assets.
Half of Fed Forecasters Now Expect No Rate Cuts This Year
More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP. Half now see no cuts this year (and risks are clearly tilted to this group continuing to grow given inertial...
Bond Investors, Fed Use Different Treasury Valuation Models
Bond investors and Fed policy makers use different models on how to look at Treasuries, @HannoLustig says. @HooverInst
State Action: AGs Warn Credit Rating Agencies on ESG-Related Fossil Fuel Company Downgrades
Twenty-three state attorneys general have sent a joint letter to Fitch, Moody’s and S&P Global demanding that the agencies stop using ESG criteria to downgrade fossil‑fuel companies and related state economies. The AGs allege the rating firms rely on undisclosed...
BofA Delays Fed Rate Cuts to 2027
"We push the two cuts in our Fed forecast out from Sep-Oct '26 to Jul-Sep '27. The data simply don't warrant cuts this year." - BofA
War Headlines Dampen Usual Pre‑auction Buying Optimism
Normally a nice level to love tap a few 5s before 3y auction on Monday, but war news and weekend headlines tough to ignore
Bond Traders Price Over 50% Chance of Fed Hike by April 2026
Bond market participants are rapidly revising their outlook, with swaps indicating a greater than 50% chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates by next April. The shift reflects persistent inflation worries, the Iran conflict, and an upcoming change in Fed...
Gundlach Pushes Demand for His Own Holdings
Already taken 3x calls this morning on this nonsense story. Just Gundlach trying to generate demand for something he already owns. Create liquidity and get lower coupons bid up on the spline.
US Treasuries Focus on Soft Wages, Steady Unemployment
USTs keying on soft wages and steady UER and shaking off headline beat. It seems
China Hongqiao Group Issues Rmb10.2bn Convertible Bond
China Hongqiao Group, the HKEX‑listed aluminium giant, issued RMB 10.2 billion (≈US$1.49 billion) of zero‑coupon, US‑dollar‑settled convertible bonds due 2027. The issuance was completed on May 5 alongside a concurrent share‑repurchase program. Hongqiao plans to use the proceeds to stockpile bauxite, refinance existing debt,...
Issing in the Wind: Otmar Issing’s Strategy Explained
I call it Issing in the wind, after the guy - Otmar Issing- who came up with this strategy
BoJ JGB Purchases Neutralize FX Intervention, Yen Slides
The Yen is already falling again. Markets know Japan's official FX intervention can't work as long as the BoJ is buying JGBs to cap yields. That JGB buying puts depreciation pressure on the Yen, so intervention just gives markets a...
Citigroup Raises Tender Offer Waterfall Cap to $1.285 B, Adjusts Pricing on $4.75 B of Notes
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. announced on May 6 that it has lifted the waterfall cap on its self‑tender of three note series from $1.25 billion to $1.285 billion and disclosed the final pricing per $1,000 of principal. The move comes after early...
Rising Spreads, Falling
US Corporate Spread "risk" is the inverse of Profit Growth - we remain long High Yield https://t.co/IbOVfjy8fw
Municipal Bonds Hold Steady as Treasury Yields Rise 5 Bps
Municipal bond yields were largely unchanged Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields climbed five basis points, underscoring a divergence between state‑level financing and federal debt markets. Investors added $1.845 billion to muni mutual funds, while BofA priced a $206.94 million utility refunding for...
Deutsche Bank Flags Inconsistent Market Pricing as Iran Conflict Drags On
Deutsche Bank’s research note warns that markets are pricing the Iran conflict inconsistently across asset classes. Treasury yields have tracked oil prices, suggesting a prolonged inflationary shock, while equities have decoupled, treating the disruption as temporary. At the same time,...
Westlake Automobile's Latest ABS Raises $1.4 Billion
Westlake Services has launched a $1.4 billion asset‑backed security (ABS) backed by subprime auto loans, marketed under the Westlake Automobile Receivables Trust 2026‑2. The transaction features eight tranches, with class A notes carrying a 40.85% credit enhancement and subordinate tranches B‑E ranging from...
PIMCO Flags Widening Gap Between Core CPI and Core PCE as AI Fuels Inflation
PIMCO’s latest macro signpost reveals core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation surged to 4.1% in February 2026, while core CPI remains subdued, creating a 60‑basis‑point positive gap—the largest swing since 1985. The divergence, driven by AI‑related demand and energy‑price pressures,...
KBRA's April CMCM Trend Watch Shows Private‑Label CMBS Issuance Rebound to $42B YTD
Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) released its April 2026 CMBS Trend Watch, noting a rebound in private‑label CMBS issuance with 17 deals closed in April and year‑to‑date issuance climbing to $42 billion. The report also flags a 57.7% YoY jump in...
JPMorgan-Led Bank Group Braces for $500 Million Loss on Qualtrics Debt Restructuring
A consortium headed by JPMorgan Chase expects to absorb more than $500 million in paper losses on Qualtrics International’s high‑yield debt restructuring. The banks will use their balance sheets to finance a $5.3 billion acquisition of Press Ganey Forsta, creating the largest hung‑deal in...
Ecuador Raises $1 Billion in Dollar Bonds as Oil Prices Spur Demand
Ecuador sold an additional $1 billion of dollar‑denominated sovereign bonds, pricing the 2034 issue at 8.25% and the 2039 issue at 8.75%. The issuance taps stronger oil revenues and a resurgence of investor interest in emerging‑market debt.
The Market Is Paying You 7% to Lend to a Hundred-Year-Old Franchise. Value Worth Exploiting.
A century‑old franchise’s senior unsecured 2033 notes are yielding nearly 7% despite the company’s robust financial profile. The firm boasts over $8 billion in primary liquidity and less than $1.5 billion of debt maturing in the near term, while its top rating...
ETF of the Week: Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF (PCY)
In the latest "ETF of the Week" podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth and Money Life host Chuck Jaffe dissect Invesco’s Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF (PCY). The discussion highlights PCY’s focus on a diversified basket of emerging‑market government bonds,...