Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China reduced its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline in four months and the lowest level since 2008. The drawdown follows larger sell‑offs during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing ordering commercial banks to liquidate $70‑$200 bn of T‑bills.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing large orders for mortgage‑backed securities, acting on President Trump’s directive to acquire $200 billion of MBS to help lower mortgage rates. Their retained‑portfolio balances have rebounded to $278 billion, up from $158 billion at the end of 2022. The purchases have narrowed the spread between newly issued MBS and Treasury yields by roughly 0.2 percentage point, aiming to cushion rate spikes triggered by the Iran conflict. However, compressed risk premiums limit the firms’ profit potential and overall market influence.
The article spotlights Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corp. (TYG), an 11.69% yielding closed‑end fund positioned to profit from the AI‑driven surge in U.S. electricity demand. Macro data shows data‑center power needs could hit 74 GW by 2028, outpacing current capacity and prompting...
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) withdrew over ₹35 billion from Indian equities and bonds this week, intensifying outflows in the sovereign and corporate bond markets. The sell‑off has lifted yields and raised concerns about liquidity for upcoming debt issuances.
Last week I said the chance of a rate cut according to the polymarket was more than likely not happening Some thought I was wrong Needless to say no rate cut happened I need you all to pay attention… this ENTIRE YEAR (as...
Markets are now pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING by year-end. Not cuts. Tightening. Six months ago the market expected 3+ cuts in 2026. Next potential cut: autumn 2027. Good luck hitting even that. https://t.co/mmyLstJwNe
Bloomberg’s Emerging Markets podcast notes that soaring oil prices have forced a revision of global interest‑rate expectations, unsettling the once‑popular strategy of investing in emerging‑market local‑currency bonds. The energy price shock is prompting investors to unwind positions as higher rates...
Short-term rates (black) are rising as markets settle in for a long war. That pushes up long-term yields, a problem for any high-debt country out there. The last time we saw this in 2022, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts...
The odds of a rate cut in 2026 have fallen to 14.5%. Just 3 weeks ago, they were nearly 100%. https://t.co/uMCjhmatJN
State Street and Voya have raised their allocations to mortgage‑backed securities in response to heightened risk in the corporate bond market. The specific size of the shift was not disclosed, but the move signals a broader re‑allocation among large asset...
Russell Napier warns that investors face a "great portfolio reset" as bond markets lose appeal, U.S. equities become riskier, and financial repression intensifies. He argues that prolonged low‑interest rates will erode fixed‑income returns, prompting a shift toward real assets and...
The article warns of an imminent credit crisis as bond yields climb amid rising inflation expectations. It argues that expanding quantitative easing and war‑related spending will erode fiat currencies, prompting a historic wealth shift from creditors to debtors. Meanwhile, gold...
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
NEPC LLC increased its holding in Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF (VTC) by 1,077,991 shares, adding $81.88 million to its portfolio and lifting the fund to 5.85% of its 13F assets. The move underscores the firm’s bullish view on the U.S....
Higher oil prices and the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates steady ignited a sweeping bond sell‑off, pushing yields up and credit spreads to multi‑year highs. The move erased billions in market value and deepened concerns about stagflation as investors...
State Street and Voya Investment Management are pivoting toward mortgage‑backed securities as rising oil prices and inflation fears make high‑grade corporate bonds riskier. A Trump‑directed $200 billion purchase program by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac adds liquidity to the MBS market, narrowing the...
State Street and Voya Investment Management are shifting portfolio allocations away from corporate bonds toward mortgage‑backed securities. The move is driven by rising energy prices and heightened inflation concerns that are elevating default risk in the high‑grade corporate market. Goldman...
Global liquidity, which peaked in the fall, is now on a downward trajectory, pushing markets into a risk‑off stance. Iranian geopolitical tensions and volatile oil prices have amplified investor anxiety, but the liquidity slowdown was already evident. Despite aggressive central‑bank...
Long-term Treasuries are up 4.60% this year. The S&P 500 is down 3.24%. The most consensus short trade in finance for three years is quietly winning. Nobody writes bond bull pieces. Nobody is crediting their bond allocation. But TLT has outperformed SPY...
The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a bear‑flattening episode, where short‑term yields have risen faster than long‑term yields. Over the past three days the 2‑year yield jumped 23 basis points while the 10‑year climbed 18 basis points, widening the short‑term...
Operation ‘Rage Flip’ erupted in late March, exposing extreme price volatility as a chart‑driven rally flipped a steep decline into a rapid surge. Traders on the floor, including Stephen Walton, described the move as a herd‑culling event that overwhelmed typical...
The SPDR Nuveen Bloomberg High Yield Municipal Bond ETF (HYMB) delivers a 4.5% tax‑free dividend yield, positioning it as a compelling income source for investors in high tax brackets. The fund concentrates on non‑investment‑grade and unrated municipal securities while retaining...
A new Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) analysis of 300 years of U.S. and U.K. data finds that government bonds lose roughly 14% in real terms during the first four years of wars or pandemic‑scale emergencies. The study links...
"A big distribution pattern is carving out in the Junk Bonds vs. Treasuries ratio. A breakdown here would be the last thing stock market bulls want to see." -Alfonso De Pablos, All Star Charts
The escalation of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran has disrupted oil supplies, prompting a reassessment of U.S. interest‑rate expectations. Market participants now price a modest probability of a Fed rate hike, pushing the MOVE index higher and widening rate‑volatility...
Good Morning from #Germany, where 10y govt bond yields have risen >3%, their highest level since 2011. The recent increase is driven disproportionately by higher long-term inflation expectations – meaning real 10y yields have fallen from 1.35% to 0.77%. The chart...
Bonds are beating stocks in 2026. The 20+ Year Treasury is up while the S&P 500 is down 3%. The same trade nobody wanted in January is the only one working in March. After three years of pain, Treasury investors are...
Diameter Capital Partners launched a new $33.65 million stake in FS KKR Capital Corp, acquiring 2.27 million shares while the BDC’s stock has tumbled 51% over the past year. The move underscores a contrarian play on a distressed high‑yield issuer amid broader...
"The risk of a hike might be rising but the risks of lots of cuts is rising too." - UBS
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
Morningstar DBRS upgraded the Class B notes of Ford Auto Securitization Trust II 2025‑A to AA (high) from AA (sf) and reaffirmed AAA (sf) ratings for the Class A‑1, A‑2 and A‑3 notes. The upgrade reflects stronger credit enhancement, with...
1/ Markets now think the Fed is more likely to raise rates than cut them this year. A rate hike is not my baseline scenario, but I see the risks rising, for the following reasons. (Link to column in next...
UST 10 Yr Notes went home 4.386 on Friday, yield about 10.3bp's higher. 20 Yr Bonds just 2bp's away from that 5% Handle.
Strive Enhanced Income Short Maturity ETF (BUXX) is an actively managed fund that targets short‑term investment‑grade debt, emphasizing securitized and mortgage‑related securities. Launched in August 2023, the ETF offers a 4.9% yield while maintaining a low effective duration of 0.75...
$TLT - Made a new low for the year and is headed back to the low 80s. The next major support is the May 2025 low at 83.30. https://t.co/b3Nva3eIMx
All the manipulation impact of Trump "Instructing the GSE's" to buy 200BN in MBS has disappeared as OAS is now higher. Throw in higher vol and modestly higher 10's and you get higher mortgage rates. https://t.co/NKfe9Jq3vg
Morningstar DBRS confirmed credit ratings on five classes of the Wells Fargo Commercial Mortgage Trust 2015‑C27, assigning B (sf) to Class C and C (sf) to Classes D, E, F and X‑B. The agency discontinued the rating on senior Class PEX after its repayment. Since...
The 10-year approaching 4.4% and then we get this "drop" from the president. Another FAFO moment? This coming week will be epic.
$TLT is up 1.10% YTD. $SPY is down 3%. Bonds are beating stocks in 2026. The same trade nobody wanted in January is the only one working in March. https://t.co/8oVDeeOfUe
Morningstar DBRS confirmed that the Republic of Finland’s long‑term foreign and local currency sovereign ratings remain at AA (high), while its short‑term foreign and local ratings stay at R‑1 (high). All four ratings were reaffirmed on 20 March 2026 with a Stable...
This is not proof that investors expect CPI above 5% @MikeDorning 1-year breakeven inflation spike is a stress gauge distorted by energy shock, liquidity, and risk premia Important signal? Yes. Clean inflation forecast? No #Inflation #Bonds #Breakevens #Oil #Markets
People ask about muni’s and I typically don’t have much to say. But now, looking at the deficits caused by absurd spending, and tax policies accelerating revenue erosion, I can say avoid all General Obligation muni’s in California, Illinois &...
Treasury yields climbed on March 20, 2026, with the 10‑year note reaching 4.39% and the 2‑year at 3.88%, the highest levels since July 2025. The 10‑2 spread turned negative in early September 2024 and stayed inverted until early September 2024, reviving its reputation as a...
Yields on the two-year Treasury note are up 0.516 pp since Feb. 27, the day before strikes on Iran, to 3.893%. That’s the highest close since July. The gain over the last three weeks is the largest since May 2023 (the...
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
Investors poured into a high‑yield corporate bond ETF, generating its largest weekly net inflow since early 2024. The surge reflects a shift toward risk‑on fixed‑income amid rising Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty. Market analysts see the move as a test...
yields - what a week(!) as they appear to be resolving higher after consolidating... it's a global phenomenon... not a U.S. thing, or a Canada thing, or a Europe thing... $TNX $TYX 😜 please don't blame Trump, or the Iran war, or...
In this brief episode, Andrew Sheets draws a parallel between March Madness basketball and the sudden shift in market narratives caused by the Iran conflict and a potential oil shock. He outlines how, after a period of strong economic signals—low...
$GOVT Treasury ETF down 2.2% last 3 weeks... that's almost its worst plunge since March 2022... which was a historic drop... @stockcharts https://t.co/AR2FifcXyx
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
Markets are pricing a more aggressive Bank of Canada tightening path, with traders betting on a cumulative 75 basis‑point increase by 2026 and a 25‑basis‑point hike as early as July. The central bank held its policy rate at 2.25% and...
