Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
Pagaya Structured Products is launching a $586.2 million asset‑backed securities (ABS) program backed by unsecured consumer loans from 11 partner lenders. The deal comprises 15 note classes, most maturing on November 15, 2033, with the senior A1 tranche extending to April 15, 2027. Credit enhancement levels reach 80.36% for A1 and 64.63% for A2, supported by subordination, over‑collateralization, and two reserve accounts. Ratings span from K1+ on the top tranche to B‑ on the lowest, reflecting a broad risk spectrum for investors.
Snowy Hydro’s flagship Snowy 2.0 pumped‑hydro scheme, a 2,200 MW storage project, is projected to breach its $12 bn AUD (≈$7.9 bn USD) capex by fiscal 2026, with the work only 70% complete. The federal government has already supplied $5.98 bn AUD (≈$3.9 bn USD) in...
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected...
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
Emerging‑market corporate bonds are delivering yields well above U.S. benchmarks, and the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund (EMCB) exemplifies this trend with a 5.07% SEC yield. The actively managed ETF holds a 3.97‑year effective duration, positioning it as an...
Torsten Slok warns that roughly $14 trillion of intermodal (IG) capacity will hit the market over the next two years, driven by a wave of new rail, truck and terminal assets. The surge could outpace demand, creating excess supply in freight...
Citigroup’s Mortgage Loan Trust issued a $1 billion residential mortgage‑backed securities (RMBS) transaction, CMLTI 2026‑RP1, backed by seasoned loans originated in 2019 or earlier. The pool shows strong performance, with 90.3% of loans maintaining a clean payment history and a low delinquency...
Throughout 2025, the research team issued a series of baby bond and preferred share target updates, adding new securities such as CIMP, AGNCZ, RITM‑E, NYMTH, TWOD, NYMTI, NYMTG, MITN, and MITP. The updates were released on June 11, July 9, September 30, and...
BOOM: Invesco to Acquire Superstate's USTB Tokenized MMF Management One of first acquisitions of a crypto-native fund by TradFi asset manager. TradFi now majority of top 10 tokenized MMFs $2.2T asset manager Invesco acquiring management of $USTB ($950M AUM, 5th largest tokenized...
Mortgage rates surged to a 6.43% 30‑year fixed level as the Iran conflict intensified, pushing borrowing costs higher. Ten‑year Treasury yields fell to around 4.32% after reports of U.S.–Tehran de‑escalation talks, offering a modest relief for mortgage pricing. The Federal...
The latest two‑year Treasury note auction attracted below‑average demand, sending the yield down four basis points to 3.86%. The softening appetite reflects waning safe‑haven appeal as investors weigh Middle‑East tensions and a mixed equity outlook.
BlackRock Core Bond Trust (BHK) has been downgraded to a Sell as higher interest rates and inflationary pressure from the Iran conflict strain its performance. The fund’s portfolio now leans 80% toward investment‑grade corporate credit and carries a 33.9% leverage...
The iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF (FLOT) is gaining attention for its low‑duration, variable‑rate exposure that cushions investors against rising interest rates. Its floating‑rate structure delivers yields that outpace traditional cash equivalents and short‑duration bond funds while keeping price volatility...
Canada’s 5‑year government bond yield surged from 2.6% to 3.2% within weeks, while the 30‑year benchmark climbed to 4%, reflecting heightened inflation fears tied to the Ukraine war, soaring energy costs and lingering tariff pressures. The yield jump has already...
Secured Fixed Income is marketing a three‑year retail bond at 7.5% interest with a £1,000 minimum investment (about $1,270), positioning it against top savings accounts that top out at 4.75%. The product falls under the FCA‑approved "access bond" category, which...
Which bond titan ditched a Ph.D. for punk rock, emailed his way into Wall Street, then built a $135B fortress overnight?
Treasury Bills will not make you rich overnight. But they will grow your money safely, consistently and with zero drama; which is exactly what every young Nigerian investor needs as a foundation. Start lending to the government, and get paid.
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ghana's long‑term sovereign rating at B‑ and introduced a RR4 recovery rating, marking the first time the agency embeds recovery assumptions into its sovereign framework. The move removes Ghana from Under Criteria Observation and keeps a...
Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt Fund (MSD) has delivered strong returns since 2022, buoyed by rising rates, macro improvements, and a weaker dollar. The fund offers high‑yield, diversified exposure to sovereign, corporate and quasi‑sovereign debt across lesser‑tracked emerging markets. Recent...
Bank of Japan minutes from the January meeting show policymakers leaning toward additional rate hikes, citing persistent inflation and a depreciating yen. The central bank kept the short‑term rate at 0.75% but signalled a hawkish shift, while markets price a...
Morgan Stanley issued a stark research note warning that a hawkish Federal Reserve, rather than economic weakness, now poses the greatest risk to markets. The bank says investors are underestimating the Fed's inflation‑first stance after the March 18 FOMC held...
The markets now think the ECB and BOE will now hike rates by at least 50bps apiece, and the RBA will hike by at least another 50bps on top of the 50bps they've done already. The PMI data says otherwise....
The IG index spread of 84bps is now back near unchanged levels since February 27 https://t.co/44eACVJ587
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for a U.S. recession in 2026 to a 30% probability, up from 25%, citing a confluence of geopolitical tension, higher oil prices and waning fiscal support. The revised outlook is prompting corporations to tighten budgets...
Where Have All the Hedges Gone? - @psarofagis channeling Paula Cole into a timely note today re how once again bonds fell with stocks. This time gold fell too. This is why Money Mkt Funds and Buffer ETFs are increasingly...
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
Investors are gravitating toward dividend‑focused large‑cap ETFs—Schwab SCHD, Vanguard VYM and iShares DGRO—as alternatives to low‑yield bonds, with yields ranging from 2% to 3.5%. The move reflects persistent weak bond returns and a search for income plus equity upside.
10Y yields at 4.38% and RISING during risk-off. That's not the flight-to-safety playbook. That's a regime change. $TLT $SPY $GLD https://t.co/nCaYnxlGaO
10-Year Yield Holds Uptrend as Inflation Nowcast Accelerates during #Quad3 The bond market isn’t buying the narrative. 📉📊 📈 10Y still making higher highs/lows 📊 Range: 4.20–4.43%
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $69 bn of two‑year notes on March 24, posting a high yield of 3.936% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.44, well under the ten‑auction average of 2.62. The soft demand underscores growing investor caution amid rising yields...
It may be tempting to think that the rise in yields is the product of a US-centric dynamic (relating to OPEC recycling no/fewer petrodollars into Treasuries), but the next chart shows that yields are rising everywhere. This is global reset,...
UST 5y auction will be interesting after a nasty 2y yesterday. Some news cross-currents may have affected clean bidding for 2s which should be a factor for 5s today as well. Also more of a concession would be...
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has kicked off an $8 bn junk‑bond issuance to fund the $55 bn leveraged buyout of video‑game maker Electronic Arts, the biggest takeover in history. The deal splits into $5.5 bn of secured notes and $2.5 bn of unsecured bonds,...
While the 10-year yield broke out of a short term range, the weekly chart below still shows bonds holding within a long triangle (in place since 2022). If it breaks, it will be a problem not only for bonds but...
Long yields broke out last week and finished the week at 4.39%. As I have written many times, nothing good happens above 4.5% when the risk-free rate is competitive with risky assets, as is now the case. https://t.co/mq0q2S2nBU
Synthetic risk transfer securities (SRTs) continue to trade at a spread premium over comparable asset‑backed securities (ABS), despite a broader tightening of credit markets. Tristan Teoh of Insight Investment notes the premium sits around 30‑50 basis points, reflecting strong investor...
$TLT bleeding $1.2B. $HYG losing $623M. Credit spreads widening. Nobody is buying the dip in bonds. What do they know? $LQD $BND https://t.co/88YFIH3YtD
the @federalreserve has cut interest rates six times since Sep '244 and U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen from 3.7% to 4.4% since that cutting program began... https://t.co/EQHFpoQsIC
Metrobank closed its public offer for the Series F ASEAN Sustainability peso‑denominated bonds a week early, citing strong investor demand. The 1.5‑year bonds carry a fixed 5.4727% coupon and will be listed on the Philippine Dealing & Exchange Corp. on April 14....
The March 2026 US Treasury 2-year yield hit 3.93%, up sharply from 3.45% last month. This is the highest yield since May 2025. TRUMP’S TARIFF WAR AND WAR ON IRAN ARE RATTLING BOND MARKETS. https://t.co/TfJWZRALwu
10Y treasury back to where it was at Trumps inauguration. Its increased almost 0.5% since the Iran war started in a sign that the market worries do the long term effects of Trump’s chaotic presidency. That makes mortgages more expensive. 1Y...
Ares: 11.6% redemption requests. Honored 5%. Called it “aligned with the best interests of all stakeholders.” The stakeholders who wanted their money back might define “best interests” differently.
These FT charts illustrate the shift in market expectations for policy actions by the world’s major central banks. The change has been particularly striking for central banks with a single mandate (of price stability). #economy #markets #centralbanks @financialtimes
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
Tick chart starting Friday afternoon. 10-year yield (white) Nearby WTI crude oil futures (blue) In a crisis, all correlations go to 1. https://t.co/0ubKfHkt9Q
Municipal Closed End Funds feeling the Rate complex heat of higher yields as well as credit risk pressures turning up.
This raises an important question -- namely how should we understand ongoing demand for Treasuries from private investors abroad? 1/ https://t.co/IVZNahIfEc
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
“Today’s 2 yr auction was terrible:” @pboockvar The bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since May 2024 and dealers got stuck with the largest amount since October 2022. Traders are having a hard time pricing Fed policy as oil prices swing...
