Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
Amazon Prepares Its First Swiss Franc Bond in Six-Part AI-Capex Push
Amazon is preparing its first Swiss franc bond issuance, a six‑tranche program spanning 3‑ to 25‑year maturities, marking its entry into the CHF market. The move follows a broader multi‑currency funding push, after a $37 bn dollar bond and €14.5 bn euro deal earlier this month, as the company seeks to finance roughly $200 bn of AI‑related capex slated for 2026. Swiss yields are lower than U.S. and euro rates, allowing Amazon to lock in cheap long‑duration debt and broaden its investor base, a strategy mirrored by other hyperscalers. Analysts note that hyperscalers could need up to $1.5 trillion of additional debt through 2026 to fund AI build‑out, making diversification critical.
Do Voters Really Want to Pay for Public Schools?
Voters in Michigan approved a school bond while Ohio rejected a similar measure, each with a 64% vote. The Michigan bond will fund capital upgrades for special‑education facilities, underscoring the reliance on local property taxes for school construction. Simultaneously, states...
Amazon Prepares to Sell First Swiss Franc Bond in AI Push
Amazon.com Inc. is set to launch its first-ever bond offering denominated in Swiss francs. The company has hired BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Chase to manage a six‑part issuance covering maturities from three to 25 years. The proceeds are expected to...
KKR, HASI-Backed Sustainable Infrastructure Platform CarbonCount Raises Over $500 Million
KKR and HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital expanded their CarbonCount Holdings 1 platform by issuing $508 million in senior unsecured notes, raising total investment capacity to nearly $5 billion. Launched in 2024 with $1 billion commitments from each partner, the platform previously raised $592 million in...
Germany Faces Stagflation as Growth Slows, Inflation Rises
Good Morning from Germany, which appears to be heading towards stagflation. Consensus GDP forecasts for 2026 have been revised down from more than 1% to just 0.66%, while inflation forecasts have climbed above 2.7%. Against this backdrop, the ECB is...
Florida Citizens Now Targets up to $600m of Reinsurance From Everglades Re II 2026-1 Cat Bond
Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp has increased its reinsurance target for the Everglades Re II Ltd. Series 2026‑1 catastrophe bond from $450 million to as much as $600 million. The three tranches—Class A, B and C—have been expanded in size and their...
How the UK Can Use the Bond Markets’ ‘Kindness of Strangers’
The UK now spends over £100 bn (≈ $127 bn) a year on debt interest, roughly 1 in 12 pounds of government spending, despite a lower debt‑to‑GDP ratio than France and Italy. Yield differentials mean the UK pays about 5% on 10‑year gilts...
Fed Cuts Don’t Guarantee Bond Rallies, History Shows
For years, a familiar pitch has followed every Fed cut: rates are dropping, so bonds should rally. But history is a little messier than that. Bond outcomes do NOT move in a predictable manner just because the US Fed changes policy. Source:...
Australia’s Budget May Lead to Lower Bond Supply, Analysts Say
Australia’s upcoming budget is expected to signal a modest pullback in sovereign debt issuance, with Commonwealth Bank of Australia projecting FY27 bond sales of A$115 billion (about $83 billion) versus A$125 billion this year. Analysts say the Australian Office of Financial Management may...
Saudi PIF Launches $7 Bn Three‑tranche USD Bond Issue, Marking Return to U.S. Market
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) issued a $7 bn USD‑denominated bond program in three tranches on May 10, 2026, signaling its comeback to the U.S. sovereign‑style market. The order book suggested strong demand, underscoring renewed investor appetite for Middle‑East sovereign...
Guest Contribution: “Does the Yield Curve Still Predict Recessions? U.S. and OECD Evidence”
Academic Mufan Chen revisits the yield curve’s recession‑predictive power across the United States and seven OECD economies using monthly data from 1995‑2025. Probit models forecast recession risk 12 months ahead, comparing a spread‑only specification, one adding short‑term rates, and another...
Alphabet's CAD 8.5 B Canadian Bond Sets New Record for Corporate Issuances
Alphabet issued a CAD 8.5 billion (≈US$6.2 billion) four‑tranche bond in Canada, the biggest corporate bond ever sold in the country and the largest “maple” bond to date. The deal, led by RBC and other bookrunners, pushes the Canadian foreign‑issuer market to a...
China Acquires US Defense Assets Cheaply as Americans Fund Deficits
“Dollar dominance” as defined by many here on X = China buys up the US defense industrial base on the cheap while US Boomers & Banks buy negative real yielding USTs to finance US deficits (aka lose capital on a...
Paga Teams with Sui to Tokenise Bonds and Real‑Estate, Opening Crypto‑Backed Investments in Africa
Nigerian fintech pioneer Paga announced a partnership with the Sui blockchain to tokenise bonds, real‑estate and other assets, using the newly launched USDsui stablecoin. The deal, unveiled at Sui Live in Miami, aims to give Paga’s 1.5 billion‑dollar monthly payment flow...
REDW Wealth Puts $2.9 Million Into VictoryShares Short‑Term Bond ETF Amid Rising Rates
REDW Wealth purchased 57,389 shares of the VictoryShares Short‑Term Bond ETF (USTB) for an estimated $2.92 million, raising its total holding to $6.10 million and representing 2.43% of its 13F assets. The move underscores growing institutional appetite for short‑duration, high‑yield fixed‑income products...
Warsh Nomination Could Shrink Fed Balance Sheet, Lift Bond Yields
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh’s known preference for a rapid balance‑sheet reduction could force the Fed to sell trillions of Treasury bonds, pushing yields up...
MONECO Advisors Loads Up on This Defined-Maturity Bond ETF -- Here's Why It Matters
MONECO Advisors bought an additional 138,644 shares of Invesco BulletShares 2032 Corporate Bond ETF (BSCW) in Q1 2026, a transaction worth roughly $2.9 million. The purchase lifted the firm’s total BSCW holding to 1,056,767 shares valued at $21.8 million, representing about 1.7 % of...
Powell Stays…Should the Dot Plot?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced he will remain a Fed governor through 2028, while Kevin Warsh is set to assume the chairmanship in June. The April FOMC meeting held rates steady but recorded four dissenters—the most since 1992—signaling resistance...
Translux Limited Raises $20 Million with Debut Kazakhstan Bond
Translux Limited, the longest‑standing oil trader in the Dubai International Financial Centre, closed a $20 million, 14% coupon bond on March 30, 2026. Structured by Velar Capitals and placed on Kazakhstan’s AIX platform, the issuance signals the firm’s push toward a...
Cornerstone Advisors Dumps $32 Million of 7.2% Calamos Closed‑End Fund
Cornerstone Advisors exited its full stake in the Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund, selling 1,712,871 shares for an estimated $32.11 million. The move, disclosed in a May 8 SEC filing, represents 1.1% of Cornerstone’s assets and signals a reassessment of high‑yield, multi‑asset...
I Filled Out the Top End of My TIPS Ladder Last Week
An investor recently completed a Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) ladder that ends in October 2028, noting that current pricing reflects at least 3% inflation expectations. iShares has expanded the market with the launch of IBIM, a TIPS‑focused ETF that matures in 2036,...
CFTC Hits New York Trader with $200,000 Fine for Treasury Futures Spoofing
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined New York‑based trader Sidney Lebental $200,000 and barred him from trading for a month after finding he spoofed Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. The enforcement action, covering...
Treasury Lifts I‑Bond Composite Rate to 4.26% as Gas Prices Surge
The Treasury announced a new 4.26% composite rate for Series I savings bonds effective May 1‑Oct 31 2026, up from 4.03% after CPI rose to 3.3% YoY. The hike, spurred by a 21.2% jump in gasoline prices following the Iran war, puts I‑bonds...
Calm Spreads, a Re-Steepening Curve, and the Credit-Rotation Setup Most Investors Ignore (JOJO)
High‑yield credit spreads remain tightly compressed, with the ICE BofA US High Yield OAS at 2.78% and BB spreads at 1.70% as of early May 2026. The Treasury curve has re‑steepened, posting a +0.50% 10‑year‑minus‑2‑year spread, while inflation stays above...
Argentina Economists’ Forum Warns of Domestic Debt Stress and Global Spill‑over Risk
Leading economists gathered in Buenos Aires under Chatham House rules and warned that Argentina's mounting domestic debt is creating spill‑over risks for emerging‑market investors. The forum highlighted dwindling policy buffers, persistent inflation and a fragile global order as amplifiers of...
Australian Housing Market Levels as RBA Hikes Rates to 4.35%
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate to 4.35% on May 5, prompting a slowdown in buyer activity and signaling the first signs of a market leveling. Real‑estate agents and prospective buyers cite reduced borrowing capacity and tighter...
Japan's Central‑Government Debt Hits $8.6 Trillion Record, 10th Year in a Row
Japan's central‑government debt reached 1,343.84 trillion yen ($8.58 trillion) at the close of March, a record high for the tenth straight year. The surge, driven by a 24.33 trillion‑yen jump in outstanding bonds, underscores mounting fiscal pressure as the country battles inflation, an...
The Federal Government Must Issue More Debt than It Expected as Cash Flow Weakens, and ‘the Bond Market Is Shouting’
The Treasury Department now projects $189 bn of borrowing for the April‑June quarter, roughly $79 bn higher than its February outlook and $122 bn above the figure adjusted for the quarter’s opening cash balance. The uptick occurs despite the spring filing season’s usual...
The Federal Government Must Issue More Debt than It Expected as Cash Flow Weakens, and ‘the Bond Market Is Shouting’
The Treasury Department now projects $189 billion in borrowing for the April‑June quarter, $79 billion more than its February forecast and $122 billion higher after adjusting for the opening cash balance. Weaker cash flow reflects new tax breaks and up to $166 billion in...
UK Gilts Yield Spike as Bond Vigilantes React to Labour’s Local Election Losses
Institutional investors dubbed “bond vigilantes” drove UK gilt yields to their highest levels since 2008 after Labour’s local election setbacks, where the party lost roughly 58% of the seats it defended. The surge in yields raises the cost of borrowing...
MBS Buying May Not Significantly Lower Mortgage Rates
I wonder if these MBS purchases have kept mortgage rates lower than they otherwise would be. Would the 30-year fixed be ~6.75% today instead? Problem is other administration policies, e.g. tariffs, war, etc. basically absorb and offset any of the benefit.
Fed’s Rate‑Cut Outlook Dimmed by Strong April Jobs Gain
The Federal Reserve’s case for easing monetary policy weakened after the Labor Department reported 115,000 new jobs in April, while consumer‑price inflation held at 3.3%. Analysts say the data pushes the Fed toward a more hawkish stance ahead of the...
FLMI: Not Too Much Signs Of Stress, But Inflation Coming Back
The Franklin Dynamic Municipal Bond ETF (FLMI) is confronting heightened yield pressure as inflation expectations climb, driven in part by geopolitical tensions that are lifting energy prices. Its 7‑year duration makes the fund especially sensitive to upward shifts in the...
US Treasury Yields Rise Ahead of Strong Payrolls, Reinforcing Steady Fed Outlook
U.S. Treasury yields edged higher ahead of the April jobs report, with the 10‑year benchmark reaching 4.36%. The robust payroll numbers and steady unemployment rate have sharpened market consensus that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady, keeping inflation the...
30-Year US Treasury Yield Breaks 5% as Inflation Fears Surge
The yield on the benchmark 30‑year US Treasury bond briefly rose above 5% on Thursday, reviving concerns about persistent inflation and higher borrowing costs. Traders are divided between those who see the level as a buying opportunity and those who...
G10 Long-Term Yields Hit Record Highs Amid Debt Surge
In the UK, long-end yields are at all-time highs, but - if you look across the G10 - that's true for many other countries as well. The US, Japan, France and Australia all have the highest yields in a very...
RiverPark Funds Secures $1.8B Refinance for NYC’s ‘Superman’ Tower, Signaling New Capital Trend
Edward L. Shugrue III, managing director of RiverPark Funds, closed a $1.8 billion CMBS refinancing of the Solow Building at 9 West 57th Street, valuing the 1.7‑million‑sq‑ft tower near $3.5 billion. The deal, coupled with a $340 per‑sq‑ft lease, highlights a new wave of...
U.S. Treasury Targets Over $2 Trillion Borrowing in FY 2026, Raising Fiscal Alarm
The U.S. Treasury is set to borrow over $2 trillion in fiscal year 2026, establishing a new baseline for deficits. The Office of Management and Budget projects a $2.06 trillion shortfall, while interest costs surge past $530 billion in six months, sparking concerns...
U.S. Treasury Yields Slip to 4.35% After April Jobs Beat Forecast
The Labor Department reported 115,000 jobs added in April, far above the 62,000 forecast, prompting the benchmark 10‑year Treasury yield to fall 3.8 basis points to 4.35%. The stronger‑than‑expected payrolls eased short‑term bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, while...
PDI: Change Your Thinking
The PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI) is trading at more than a 10% premium to its net asset value despite recent NAV erosion. It delivers a high monthly distribution around 15%, though part of that may be return of capital,...
How to Build a ‘Gilt Ladder’
UK long‑bond yields have surged above 5%, prompting retirees and advisors to revisit gilt ladders – a DIY strategy of buying individual low‑coupon gilts that mature over 10‑15 years. Discounted gilts, many trading at 30‑70% of par, offer capital‑gain‑free appreciation...
Yahoo Secures $1.6 Billion Loan and Bond Sale to Refinance Apollo Acquisition Debt
Yahoo Inc. closed a $1.6 billion financing package—$700 million term loan B at 6.5% over benchmark and $900 million junk bonds at 11% yield—to refinance debt from its 2024 acquisition by Apollo Global Management. The deal, priced at 97 cents on the dollar,...
AI Deflationary Shock Flattening Yield Curve Amid Oil Rise
One of the more interesting signals in the data right now is that the yield curve continues to flatten despite a significant increase in oil prices on a trailing three-month basis. Historically, in a more traditional economic cycle, an energy...
UK Yields Exceed Italy, Not a Weakness, ECB Cap Effect
The UK's long-term gov't bond yields (lhs) are now far above those of Italy (rhs). This doesn't mean the UK is in worse shape. It's just a reflection of past ECB actions to aggressively cap Italian yields. I talked about...
J.P. Morgan Warns Market Inflation Fears Exceed Reality, 30‑Year Yields Top 5%
J.P. Morgan argues that investors are over‑reacting to inflation, a view that has driven 30‑year Treasury yields past the 5% mark. The firm notes headline CPI at 3.3% YoY and a Federal Reserve likely to stay on hold, underscoring a...
Waller Warns Productivity Surge Could Raise Borrowing Costs
Fed's Waller: starts by trashing Goolsbee's model -- anticipated productivity will be associated with higher borrowing costs if 'everyone' scrambles to invest, acting as a dampener.
Goldman Delays Final Fed Cuts to Late 2026, Early 2027
“We are pushing back the final two Fed rate cuts in our forecast by one quarter to December 2026 and March 2027.” - Goldman
Bank Negara Malaysia Holds Rate at 2.75% as Middle East Conflict Threatens Growth
Malaysia’s central bank kept the overnight policy rate at 2.75% for the fifth straight meeting, warning that the protracted Middle East war could feed higher commodity prices and inflation. The decision underscores how emerging‑market policymakers are balancing solid domestic fundamentals...
Short‑Duration Bond ETFs Pull Over $24 B in Record Inflows as Yields Stay High
Investors shifted more than $24 billion into short‑duration bond exchange‑traded funds in the past month, the biggest inflow on record. The surge reflects a hunt for higher yields amid an environment where traditional cash products lag, prompting advisors to re‑allocate client...
High‑Yield Spreads Hit Pre‑Iran Conflict Lows Globally
DB: US high-yield spreads are now tighter than levels prior to the Iran conflict... in Europe too @augurinfinity https://t.co/Yu7IqKp2Aw https://t.co/s9fwrJSPan