Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
GAM Investments announced that its catastrophe bond and insurance‑linked securities (ILS) partnership with Swiss Re’s SRILIAC subsidiary is now fully activated, bringing together multi‑billion‑dollar ILS assets. The co‑management arrangement grants GAM access to Swiss Re’s underwriting expertise, risk management and global capabilities. Since the partnership’s launch, GAM reports enhanced liquidity and improved dealing terms across its ILS strategies. New ILS products, co‑developed with Swiss Re, are slated for introduction in 2026.
WRISE Prestige has struck a strategic partnership with China Asset Management (Hong Kong) to become the exclusive launch partner for the ChinaAMC Select Asia Bond Fund’s Income share class in Hong Kong. The fund, which follows a flexible, benchmark‑unconstrained approach...
Eurozone short‑term rates are climbing in lockstep with Brent oil, which has stayed above $100 per barrel, while longer‑dated rates show signs of strain. The 2‑year‑to‑5‑year segment is flattening and could invert if oil breaches $120, suggesting a potential ECB...
In this episode of JP Morgan’s Making Sense, hosts Shaini Das, Gustav Bogle (EMEA head of portfolio trading) and Marcus Imbert (North America head of portfolio solutions) examine how portfolio trading is reshaping global credit markets. They compare the faster‑growing, more transparent North...
Supply Chain risk is financial risk. “The $30tn US Treasury market is showing growing signs of strain, as turmoil in the Middle East drives swings in bonds that underpin the financial system. The ease of trading in the world’s biggest...
Ed Yardeni tells CNBC he expects "none and done" from the Fed this year—no rate hikes ahead. https://t.co/Ml4LwB5aky
JPMorgan Chase has opened an $8 billion junk‑bond offering to finance a $55 billion leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts, the biggest LBO‑related high‑yield issuance of 2026. The deal, led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Silver Lake and Affinity Partners, tests investor...
Investors shifted capital into Chinese sovereign and corporate bonds as safe‑haven demand surged, while U.S. Treasury yields moved sharply amid Middle‑East tensions. The reallocation highlights a growing appetite for China’s fixed‑income market despite limited disclosed inflow figures.
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
Private credit funds are facing short‑term pressure as investors withdraw capital amid falling interest rates, reducing loan‑interest spreads. The U.S. Department of Labor is expected to issue a rule that would legally allow 401(k) plans to allocate a portion of...
Engineering and consulting firm AtkinsRéalis priced a $700 million private debenture offering, issuing $400 million of 4.411% Series 9 notes and $300 million of 4.756% Series 10 notes. The proceeds will retire $700 million of existing debt and the company received a BBB rating upgrade from...
Euronext’s MTS BondVision platform has launched Portfolio Trading for rates and credit, enabling buyside clients to execute baskets of bonds simultaneously via API and GUI. The service, built with dealers and buyside input, already supported trades in European government bonds,...
East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) will price $675 million of water‑system revenue bonds, split between a $329 million green series and a $365 million refunding series. The issuance arrives amid heightened market volatility caused by the Israel‑Iran conflict, yet EBMUD’s strong credit...
Morningstar DBRS issued provisional‑to‑final credit ratings for Archwest Mortgage Trust’s 2026‑RTL1 residential mortgage‑backed securities. The A1 tranche received an A (low) rating, A2 was assigned BBB (low), M1 earned BB (low) and the most junior M2 tranche was rated B...
Of note: Up 7 basis points so far today, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is currently trading above 4.40%. #economy #markets #bonds
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $44 billion of 7‑year notes at a 4.255% yield, just 0.3 basis points above the when‑issued rate, a tighter tail than the 2.0 bps and 1.3 bps seen in recent 2‑year and 5‑year sales. Meanwhile, 2‑year yields surged 8.8 bps...
The Treasury’s most recent five‑year note auction attracted demand that fell short of recent averages, prompting a modest rise in mid‑term yields. The weaker bid‑to‑cover ratio underscores growing caution among investors amid heightened geopolitical risk and inflation concerns.
DBRS Ratings GmbH (Morningstar DBRS) issued provisional credit ratings for Golden Bar (Securitisation) S.r.l.’s Series 2026‑1 on March 26, 2026. The senior Class A notes received a AAA rating, while Class B was rated AA and Classes C, E, and D received A‑level ratings. The lower‑rated Class A2 notes...
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the escalating Iran war could lift oil and gasoline prices, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal and delaying any further rate cuts. The comment adds a geopolitical layer to the Fed’s dual‑mandate...
Now that cuts have been completely priced out through late 2026 into 1H 2027, long SOFR futures are extremely attractively priced. I do not believe hikes will happen as that would twist the knife into a global recession, so therefore...
Manulife Investment Management’s CIO Nathan Thooft warns that long‑duration U.S. Treasury bonds have again failed to act as a hedge, as equities and bonds moved together amid the US‑Israeli conflict and rising inflation. He argues that the positive equity‑bond correlation,...
So far, HY credit spreads haven't widened anyway near as much as they should - given sustained oil prices & its large swings, not to mention supported high VIX & mechanical selling. Wait and see mode only lasts so long... Geopolitical shocks...
Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson warns that bonds will deliver a lost decade of returns. He argues that persistent, three‑decade inflation driven by war‑related debt and pandemic stimulus makes high‑quality U.S. stocks the best hedge. Wilson recommends...
European sovereign bond markets remain under pressure after a sharp sell‑off triggered by the Middle East war, and analysts say a swift end to the conflict is unlikely to spark a rapid rebound. Intermittent rallies have emerged on hopes of...
Zillow Group said the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.48% on March 25 and released three scenarios that model how the rate’s duration could affect home‑buyer behavior. The forecast underscores lingering affordability pressure even as rates dip slightly.
European equities fell sharply on Thursday as investors priced in higher ECB rates, dragging down a range of listed companies from Germany’s SMA Solar to France’s Vinci. The sell‑off coincided with a $1.4 billion Henkel acquisition, a 1% revenue dip at...
Most young Nigerians do not know that the Federal Government of Nigeria is literally offering them a safe investment starting from just ₦5,000. FGN Savings Bonds are one of the most underutilized investments in Nigeria. The offer opens every month. The minimum is...
Macro: convertible issuance funds growth but signals investor caution. Key: Liberty upsized $475M 0% convertibles due 2032, $37.44 conv (~30% premium). Risks: dilution, unsecured notes, redemption triggers. Trading insight: avoid new longs pre-conversion. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China Vanke Co., a distressed property developer, has approached holders of its yuan‑denominated bond maturing on April 23 to seek a payment postponement. In meetings last week, Vanke indicated it is also weighing a broader restructuring that could involve extending...
Been a while since I pulled this chart up....but this is my TIPs replication symphony on Composer plotted vs TIP https://t.co/6sUc1nkdUT https://t.co/msvzs0T9F1
5s30s just took out the low from Monday. Back end flattening aggressively post auction https://t.co/KwTSaaxDhY
Blue Owl Capital halted redemptions from its retail credit vehicle, Apollo Global Management capped withdrawals at 5% after 11.2% redemption requests, and KKR’s flagship private‑credit fund was downgraded to junk by Moody's. The moves underscore a widening liquidity crunch in...
JP Morgan has launched a basket of credit default swaps designed to let hedge funds bet against the debt of $GOOGL, $AMZN, $ORCL, $META, and $MSFT 👀 https://t.co/snSNwBvm2p
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
Vanguard's High‑Yield Corporate ETF (VWEHX) posted a cumulative real return above 25% over the past decade, joining Fidelity and T. Rowe Price as the top‑performing high‑yield bond ETFs. At the same time, Vanguard's flagship Total Bond Market Index fund (VBTLX) lost nearly...
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
2s and 5s low of the day before the 7yr auction. Not too surprising after two tailing auctions but obviously weekend angst major driver.
UK government bonds surged as the 10-year gilt yield briefly crossed the 5% mark on March 20, the highest level since the 2008 crisis. Traders link the jump to inflation pressures from the Iran‑Israel war and worries that the Treasury’s...
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj
Back in the day, on average, you could get 6-6.5% on 5-7yr Treasurys @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/rb6v4PeHGs
The Swiss National Bank disclosed that 2025 delivered a record volume of new Swiss franc bond issuances and a surge in issuers, signaling deeper market liquidity. While exact figures were not disclosed, the report came alongside the SNB’s decision to...
"For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt" https://t.co/GZLf2MrQBV https://t.co/2mBzfPVgm2
Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
JPMorgan Chase has kicked off an $8 billion junk‑bond sale to finance a $55 billion leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts, the biggest LBO in history. The deal, led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Silver Lake and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners, mixes...
The move higher in US yields has been entirely driven by term premia, not inflation expectations. Real yields on 10-year bonds are the highest in almost a year. The implication seems to be that investors are worried about the fiscal...
Norway pivots toward a hike after keeping its rate steady at 4% https://t.co/NIIgGpvVNO via @ottummelas https://t.co/RxPhCKi99b
Invesco has taken control of Superstate’s $900 million tokenized Treasury‑bill fund, USTB, expanding its digital‑asset lineup. The deal keeps Superstate as the technology partner and underscores a broader shift toward real‑world asset tokenization on blockchain.
A thread on some work in progress, on China's US bond portfolio As the chart below shows, China's cumulative current account surplus has increased by $3 trillion since the end of 2019 -- and inflows into the US in the US...
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(jpeg)/TopHoldings-d27749258de94fc9be579220b10ab2f8.jpg)
Preferred stocks blend equity and debt traits, featuring a fixed face (par) value that determines dividend calculations, while their market value fluctuates with investor sentiment and interest rates. The article explains how callable and retractable preferreds differ, noting that issuers...
Bond market volatility is accelerating, with the MOVE index climbing to 103.01 by mid‑2026. The surge coincides with a sharp rise in U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields, signaling heightened uncertainty in fixed‑income markets. Simultaneously, the equity‑focused VIX index mirrors this turbulence,...
