Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
Rithm Capital Raises $500M via 8.5% Senior Notes to Fund Real Estate Expansion
Rithm Capital Corp. priced a $500 million senior unsecured note offering with an 8.5% coupon, due in 2031. The proceeds will support general corporate purposes, including debt repayment after a series of high‑profile real‑estate acquisitions. The deal underscores robust appetite for long‑dated, unsecured financing in the mortgage‑backed real‑estate sector.
Rising Rates Across Curve Pose Major Macro Threat
Rates are moving to new highs across the curve. Rates moving higher is my biggest macro concern. Written a lot about it. https://t.co/s8dO9I94jX
Warwick Investment Management Adds $8.5 Million to Vanguard Corporate Bond ETF
Warwick Investment Management, Inc. bought an additional 109,583 shares of the Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF (VTC) for roughly $8.5 million in Q1 2026. The purchase lifted its holding to 3.8% of its 13F‑reportable assets, a move that underscores growing institutional interest...
SCYB My Choice Among High Yield ETFs
The Schwab High Yield Bond ETF (SCYB) delivers a 7%+ yield while boasting the lowest expense ratio—0.03%—among high‑yield ETFs. Its diversified basket of 1,837 bonds spreads single‑bond risk, yet a heavy tilt toward cyclical sectors raises recession‑related concerns. Approximately 76.5%...
Pros Deploy Short UK Gilts, China Tilt, and AI Power Plays in Volatile Markets
Jordan Rochester of Mizuho, Alexander Treves of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and Anastasia Amoroso of Partners Group outlined three tactical plays—shorting UK gilts, allocating marginal capital to China, and targeting AI‑related power assets—to navigate today’s market volatility.
The Gilt Market Will Hover over Any Labour Leadership Contest | Nils Pratley
The UK gilt market has seen 10‑year yields climb from 4.2% to 5% since early March, driven primarily by the Iran war and soaring energy prices rather than domestic political drama. While a Labour leadership contest could spark a market...
US Corporate Bond Issuance Tops $1 Trillion as Spreads Tighten to 78 Bps
U.S. corporate bond issuance crossed the $1 trillion mark in the first four months of 2026, up 28% from a year earlier, while investment‑grade spreads narrowed to about 78 basis points. The rally reflects abundant liquidity, tighter credit spreads and resilient...
Inversion Signals Recession, yet Fed‑driven, Not Deflationary
10Y Treasury Yield−3M Treasury Bill Yield A deep inversion followed by re-steepening has historically been one of the best recession warning signals. But this cycle was driven primarily by extreme short-rate tightening from the Fed, not by a collapse in long-term inflation...
BlackRock Predicts 6%+ Yields for Diversified Bond Portfolios as Geopolitical Shocks Reshape Markets
BlackRock’s second‑quarter 2026 Fixed Income Outlook projects that diversified fixed‑income portfolios can generate yields above 6%, outpacing the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index’s 4.6% return. The firm attributes the upside to higher starting yields, active management opportunities and a strategy...
Philippine Sovereign Bonds Extend Slump as Traders Bet on 50‑bp Rate Hike
Philippine sovereign bonds continued to fall on May 13, 2026, as market participants priced in a 50‑basis‑point rate hike – the biggest since 2023 – following the fastest inflation rise in three years. The sell‑off lifted three‑month peso swaps to...
Fidelity International Launches FILQ, a Chainlink‑powered Tokenized Fund for Government Securities
Fidelity International unveiled FILQ, its first tokenized fund, on May 13, 2026. Powered by Chainlink’s oracle network and tokenized by Sygnum, the fund offers investors real‑time, 24/7 exposure to short‑term government securities. The launch signals a major asset manager moving...
US Debt Costs Hit 18-Year High as Conflict Fuels Inflation Surge
The U.S. Treasury sold $25 billion of 30‑year bonds at a 5.046% yield, the highest level for a new long‑term issue since the 2008 financial crisis. The spike follows a 6% year‑on‑year rise in the producer price index, driven by soaring...
Treasury Premium Climbs Again, Fueled by Sticky Inflation
The market premium on the U.S. 10‑year Treasury rose to 35 basis points in April, pushing the yield to 4.47%—its highest close since August. Sticky core inflation, especially in services, and a sharp jump in wholesale prices signal persistent price...
Wells Fargo Investment Institute Warns that US Debt Trajectory Is Serious, but Not a Crisis Yet
Wells Fargo Investment Institute warns that the U.S. federal debt could climb to 175% of GDP by 2050 if Congress does not act, with the debt‑to‑GDP ratio already projected to hit 101% in 2026. About $15 trillion of publicly held Treasury...
30‑Year Treasury Yield Breaks 5% for First Time Since 2007 Amid Inflation Surge
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $25 bn of new 30‑year bonds at a 5.046% yield, the first time the long‑bond has cleared the 5% threshold since 2007. The spike follows a sharp rise in producer‑price inflation and soaring oil prices, reviving concerns...
Fed Quietly Resumed QE, Adding $200B to Balance Sheet
An under appreciated regime change is that the Federal Reserve quietly restarted Quantitative Easing (QE) in December by expanding its balance sheet. The Fed accumulates bonds, soaking up bonds that would otherwise go to the open market reducing money supply. ~$200B increase...
2‑Year Yield 38bps Above Fed Funds, Historically Normal
2yr yield 4.01%... 38bps above the Fed Funds rate... which is historically extremely normal https://t.co/vo9smDHjd9
30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.03% as S&P 500 Recovers From Intraday Lows
Treasury yields surged on Tuesday, with the 30‑year benchmark closing at 5.03%—its highest level since May 2025—while the S&P 500 clawed back roughly 1% of its intraday losses. The rebound was anchored by gamma positioning in the 7340‑7350 range and...
Japan's Record 30-Year Yield Warns US Debt Crisis
Japan’s 30-year bond yield has spiked to 3.78% - the highest level on record. A preview of what’s coming for the US if we don’t get our deficit/debt spiral under control. The chickens eventually come home to roost. https://t.co/i3abDZvmBo
Japan's 30‑Year Yield Hits 1999 High, Yen Weakens
*JAPAN 30-YR YIELD RISES TO 3.885%, HIGHEST SINCE 1999 DEBUT seriously how is the yen so weak?
Herzfeld Advisors Puts $10 Million Into FS Credit Opportunities, Betting on Private Credit
Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors announced a $10.05 million purchase of 1,780,154 shares of FS Credit Opportunities Corp., raising its stake to 6.38% of reportable assets. The move signals renewed confidence in private‑credit assets despite broader market headwinds.
$300 Billion AI Debt Binge Spreads From Wall Street to Tokyo
Alphabet Inc. is finalizing a $17 billion bond offering while simultaneously preparing a yen‑denominated debt sale, adding to a multi‑currency borrowing spree that will total roughly $60 billion in four months. The tech giant has already tapped investors in euros, Canadian dollars,...
India's 10‑Year Yield Tops 7% as Geopolitical Risks Push Borrowing Costs Higher
India's 10‑year government bond yield slipped past the 7% threshold, reaching 7.031% as global geopolitical friction and stubborn inflation concerns weighed on markets. The move raises borrowing costs for the third‑largest economy and highlights the sensitivity of Indian debt to...
Assessing the 'Hidden' Cost of Aging Infrastructure, and the Credit Risk It Poses to Cities
Richard Ciccarone’s new accounting framework quantifies the $1.03 trillion replacement cost of aging municipal infrastructure across 2,000 U.S. cities. The model, called the ICA Burden, uses depreciation data adjusted for inflation to estimate deferred‑maintenance liabilities that are not currently reported on...
Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport Gets S&P Rating Upgrades
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport received a credit rating upgrade from S&P Global Ratings. The agency lifted $585.1 million of senior lien general airport revenue bonds to AA from AA‑minus and raised $1.2 billion of junior lien GARBs to AA‑minus from A‑plus....
Rare 10‑Year Yield Dip Predicts Stock Gains
10-YEAR US TREASURY HITS 4.5% FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 302 DAYS How rare is this? Well, since 1970, this is only the third time that the 10y has been below 4.5% for at least 200 trading days before going back...
UK Gilt Yields Spike Above 5.1% as Starmer Faces Mutiny and Calls to Quit
UK government bond yields surged on Tuesday, with the 10‑year gilt climbing past 5.10% and the 30‑year reaching 5.81% – its highest level since 1998 – as a growing rebellion within Labour threatens fiscal stability. More than 70 MPs have...
Alaska Housing Heads to Market with Aa1 Ratings Affirmed
Moody’s affirmed Alaska Housing Finance Corporation’s (AHFC) Aa1 rating with a stable outlook ahead of a planned $105 million state capital‑project bond issuance. The agency’s strong balance sheet—an asset‑to‑debt ratio of 1.59× and a combined fund balance covering 56% of outstanding...
Ghana Pays $1.4 Billion in Central Bank Interest as Debt Exchange Programme Seeks Fiscal Relief
Ghana’s central bank disbursed roughly $1.4 billion in 2025 to commercial banks for open‑market operations, a cost that consumed about three‑quarters of its operating income. At the same time, the government’s Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) is being used to postpone...
Vanguard’s Extended Duration Treasury ETF Offers 5% Yield, Luring Income Investors
Vanguard’s Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF (EDV) is being touted as a top buy for income investors, offering a 5% yield that dwarfs the S&P 500’s 1.1% and short‑duration Treasury funds’ 3.9%. The fund’s 24‑year duration promises higher income...
U.S. 10‑Year Treasury Auction Draws Below‑Average Demand, Bid‑to‑Cover 2.40
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $42 bn of 10‑year notes on May 12, 2026, posting a high yield of 4.468% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.40, below the ten‑auction average of 2.49. The weaker demand follows a similar pattern in the recent...
Fixed‑income ETFs Pull Ahead in April as Risk Appetite Revives, BlackRock Reports
BlackRock reported $52.8 billion of net inflows into fixed‑income ETFs in April, nearly matching March’s $56.5 billion, as a renewed risk appetite drove equity inflows to $121.2 billion. The data reveals a sharp rotation from short‑term rates to credit spreads and highlights daily...
UK Life Insurers Push Leverage to 4x in Structured Gilt Derivative Trades
UK life insurers have lifted leverage on structured gilt derivative trades to as much as four times, a response to rising financing costs and a weaker economic outlook. The move signals a broader shift in how insurers manage pension‑buyout funding...
ServiceNow Targets $4 Bn High‑Grade Bond Sale to Refinance Armis Debt
ServiceNow announced a $4 bn high‑grade bond offering to refinance the $4 bn term loan taken for its $7.75 bn purchase of Armis Security. The move, organized by JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Barclays and Citi, aims to lower interest expense, extend maturities and free...
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Yields on 10y gilts have risen well above 5%, reaching their highest level since 2008 due to the UK government crisis. Keir Starmer's premiership appears to be hanging by a thread after his much-anticipated policy reset speech on Monday -...
Debt Surge to $232T Threatens Faster Interest Rate Rise
"...somewhere between a federal debt of today’s $31 trillion and the 30-year projected level of $232 trillion, a brutal cycle of rising interest rates followed by even faster-rising debt will likely be unleashed. Responsible lawmakers and taxpayers should not want...
Munis Succumb to Macro Pressure, USTs Weaken Further After CPI
Municipal bond yields rose up to five basis points on Tuesday, with the steepest gains at the front of the curve, as higher‑than‑expected core CPI pressured U.S. Treasuries and equities. Heavy new‑issue supply and slowing fund inflows amplified the yield...
Brevan Howard Adds Three Macro PMs, Swelling Investment Staff Beyond 150
Brevan Howard has hired three macro-focused portfolio managers—Jonas Klink, Mickael Sabban and Ning Guo—bringing its investment headcount to more than 150. The hires come as the firm’s Master Fund posted a modest 0.8% gain in 2025 but slipped 6.6% in...
CPI Hits 3.8% YoY, Yields Jump to 4.46% and S&P 500 Slides
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, the strongest pace since May 2023, pushing the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.463% and sending the S&P 500 down 0.1% and the Nasdaq off 0.7%. The data revived concerns that the Federal...
Investor Jitters over Starmer Uncertainty Drive UK Borrowing Costs to 28-Year High
Long-term borrowing costs in the United Kingdom spiked to a 28‑year peak on Tuesday as investors reacted to uncertainty surrounding Labour leader Keir Starmer’s potential departure. The yield on 30‑year gilts rose 14 basis points to 5.81%, the highest level...
Morningstar DBRS Discontinues Credit Ratings on Westgate Resorts 2022-1 LLC
Morningstar DBRS announced it has discontinued its outstanding credit ratings on Westgate Resorts 2022-1 LLC after the borrower fully repaid the underlying obligations. The removal of the rating ends DBRS’s ongoing surveillance of the asset‑backed security. DBRS confirmed that environmental,...
How the U.S.‑Israel War Against Iran Is Exposing the Limits of the Petrodollar System
U.S. public debt has risen to $31.27 trillion, edging past the nation’s $31.22 trillion GDP, reviving concerns about fiscal sustainability. Gulf Cooperation Council sovereign wealth funds, which collectively own roughly $2 trillion of U.S. assets, are reassessing those holdings after the U.S.-Israel campaign...
Rates Spark: Hard to See a Ceiling for Gilt Yields
UK gilt yields are climbing as the Bank of England continues aggressive quantitative tightening, shedding roughly £70 bn ($89 bn) of bonds each year and steepening the GBP swap curve by about 60 basis points versus the dollar. Political turbulence surrounding Labour’s...
CHY: Some AI Exposure And A Better Fund Than Most Bond Funds
The Calamos Convertible & High Income Fund (CHY) delivers a 9.35% yield by blending convertible bonds with high‑yield corporates. About 69% of its assets are in convertible securities, offering inflation protection and a hedge away from pure‑play tech stocks. The...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Credit Ratings of All Classes of Wells Fargo Commercial Mortgage Trust 2015-C28
Morningstar DBRS confirmed the credit ratings for all classes of Wells Fargo Commercial Mortgage Trust 2015‑C28, assigning Class D a CCC rating and Classes E and X‑E a C rating. The agency’s analysis projects $27.9 million in liquidated losses, which would wipe out the...
Sanjac Alpha's Wells: Interest Rates Will Rise This Year, Even if the Fed Cuts
In this episode, host Chuck Jaffe talks with three experts—Martha Moore on the NABE Business Conditions Survey, Matt Harris on market technicals, and Andy Wells, CIO of Sanjak Alpha—about the current economic landscape. The discussion highlights rising input costs from...
Morningstar DBRS Finalizes Provisional Credit Ratings on BMW Canada Auto Trust, Series 2026-1
Morningstar DBRS has issued provisional AAA (sf) ratings to the three tranches—Class A-1, A-2 and A-3—of the BMW Canada Auto Trust, Series 2026-1 notes. The ratings are underpinned by a 14.75% credit‑enhancement buffer at closing, a conservative residual‑value advance rate,...
This Inflation-Fighting ETF Is Right for These Times
Inflation pressures and soaring energy prices have revived interest in Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS), but the WisdomTree Inflation Plus Fund (WTIP) distinguishes itself by pairing TIPS with commodities. The ETF has surged 19.07% year‑to‑date, dwarfing the 1.26% gain of the...
Yardeni Stays Calm, Not 'Freaked Out,' As Treasury Yields Surge
Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni told Bloomberg that the recent surge in Treasury yields is not a cause for alarm, viewing 4.25‑4.75% on the 10‑year as "normal." The benchmark 10‑year yield has risen to 4.48% and the 30‑year to 5.03%, each...
Morningstar DBRS Assigns a BBB (High) Credit Rating to Valley National Bancorp's $500 Million Subordinated Debt Issuance
Morningstar DBRS assigned a final BBB (high) rating with a Stable trend to Valley National Bancorp’s $500 million, 6.219% fixed‑to‑floating subordinated notes due 2036. The unsecured notes will be used to repay $300 million of existing 3.00% subordinated notes due 2031 and...