Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. finalized a $15 billion debt package that underpins Electronic Arts' $55 billion leveraged buyout, the largest LBO in history. The financing was completed on March 22 despite heightened geopolitical risk surrounding potential U.S. action against Iranian energy infrastructure.
JPMorgan chief strategist Oksana Aronov told CNBC the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower rates in the second half of 2026, arguing that the bar for any hike remains high. The comment comes as CME FedWatch data shows traders have...
Over the 18‑month market downturn from September 2024 to March 2026, National Pension System (NPS) equity schemes declined 9.3%, outperforming the Nifty 100 (‑11%) and large‑cap mutual funds (‑9.7%). Corporate‑bond NPS schemes posted a solid 10.2% gain, beating the CRISIL Composite index’s 8.1%...
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHO) are trading almost identically, each offering a 0.03% expense ratio and a 4.0% dividend yield. While their cost and income profiles match, VGSH commands a clear size edge...
The last time we had a supply shock and oil prices rose - in 2022 - Italy and Spain got the ECB to cap their yields to survive and the UK bond market blew up in the LDI crisis. If...
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, used his 2026 annual investor letter to argue that Social Security’s low Treasury‑bond returns are stifling wealth creation. He highlighted the 2.6% yield versus a 16% S&P 500 gain in 2025 and cited...
International Monetary Fund: Global public debt has risen to a record level - nearly 100% of global GDP. https://t.co/H6FXJN78RZ
10Y yield at 4.44%. Highest since July 2025. Rates rising while growth fears mount. $TLT sellers and $SPY sellers agree on one thing: neither wants to own the future right now. That's a problem. https://t.co/lYjNri1VOz
British government bonds have taken the hardest hit in the global bond market rout, with 10‑year gilt yields breaching 5% for the first time since the 2008 crisis. The surge follows heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑Israel war and a...
Fed Fund futures market is loose.. now just a 28% chance of a hike by October https://t.co/xszONB6nqL
A bond is a debt instrument where investors lend money to governments, corporations, or municipalities in exchange for periodic interest payments and return of principal at maturity. The article explains core features such as face value, coupon rate, maturity, and...
The investment‑grade bond market posted a 7.77% total return in 2025, but credit spreads tightened, limiting passive yield opportunities. In that environment, Infrastructure Capital’s actively managed Bond Income ETF (BNDS) seeks value through selective credit exposure. Launched in January 2025,...
AllianceBernstein’s systematic investing head, Bernd Wuebben, warns that unusually wide credit‑spread dispersion is steering hedge funds toward bottom‑up, systematic approaches. The firm argues that tight average spreads combined with issuer‑level variance creates a security‑selector market where traditional beta is scarce.
U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 2‑year rate hitting 3.98% and the 10‑year at 4.39%, triggering the sharpest bond‑market sell‑off since the Iran conflict began. Capital rotated into Chinese sovereign and corporate bonds, signaling a new safe‑haven preference amid heightened...
Westgate Resorts announced a $207 million asset‑backed securities (ABS) issuance to securitize cash flow from its timeshare mortgage loans. Structured as a 144A transaction, the Westgate Resorts 2026‑1 deal will issue four tranches—Class A, B, C and D—set to mature on October 20, 2039. The...
Micron Technology (MU) fell 3.26% to $382.76 after unveiling a cash offer to purchase all outstanding senior notes, a move that investors say could reshape its balance sheet. The offer, which runs until March 31, comes amid broader pressure on...
Morningstar DBRS confirmed credit ratings for all classes of JPMCC Multifamily Housing Mortgage Loan Trust 2025‑Q032 and Freddie Mac Structured Pass‑Through Certificates Series Q‑032, assigning AAA to Class A, A (low) to Class B, and BBB (low) to Class C, with a stable trend....
Morningstar DBRS confirmed that the Republic of Croatia’s long‑term sovereign ratings—both foreign and local currency—remain at “A” with a Stable trend. The short‑term ratings were also reaffirmed at R‑1 (low) for both currency types. All four ratings carry the EU...
Morningstar DBRS reaffirmed Denmark’s long‑term sovereign rating at AAA with a stable trend, while its short‑term rating remains at R‑1 (high). The Danish economy posted 2.9% real GDP growth in 2025, propelled by robust pharmaceutical exports and rising private consumption....
The Maryland Heights‑owned Centene Community Ice Center has drawn on its debt‑service reserve to meet a March principal payment on its $50.2 million Series 2018A revenue bonds and has defaulted on the $5.5 million Series 2018B subordinate bonds. Outstanding principal on the Series A bonds...
The market was pricing a 100% chance of rate cuts in February. That number is now 16%. The Fed put is dead.
The U.S. Treasury sold $44 bn of seven‑year notes on Thursday, posting a high yield of 4.255% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.43, the lowest in ten auctions. The weak demand follows similarly tepid interest in recent two‑year and five‑year auctions,...
The episode examines the surprising resurgence of emerging‑market bond issuance, led by African issuers such as Angola and telecom tower firm Helios, while Central‑Eastern European and Middle‑Eastern markets remain largely dormant due to war‑related volatility. George Collard explains why lower‑rated...
Winnie Cisar highlighted that less than 10% of private credit is owned by retail investors, making the asset class vulnerable to redemption pressures. Recent redemption requests expose a liquidity‑mismatch risk, especially as private credit has historically provided crucial funding to...
The five‑year U.S. Treasury credit default swap (CDS) curve has surged since late 2024, spiking amid heightened geopolitical tension and domestic policy scrutiny. The graph shows a sharp rise around July 2025, coinciding with the investigation into Fed Chair Jay Powell,...
The 10‑Year Treasury yield, which peaked above 5% in late 2023, has rebounded to roughly 4.4% after a dip to 3.8% in August 2024, reflecting lingering inflation and geopolitical risks. The Federal Reserve has held rates steady this year, but...
If CPI were to trend up to 5% over the next year in the unlikely event that rbob futures kept rolling up to the current spot price...what is the 10 year yield and what has to happen to SPX earnings...
The Indian government has announced a borrowing plan of ₹8.2 trillion (about $99 billion) for the first half of FY27, keeping the target unchanged despite the ongoing West Asia conflict. The plan calls for 26 weekly auctions of securities ranging from three...
The Bank of Japan released a revised natural rate of interest estimate on Friday, marking a notable adjustment to its policy framework. The move is seen as a signal that the central bank may be preparing to alter its stance...
The average 30‑year fixed mortgage jumped to 6.38%—its highest level in over six months—after the 10‑year Treasury yield rose to 4.39%. Higher oil prices and the Iran conflict are pushing bond yields up, tightening borrowing costs for homebuyers.
DZ Bank announced a new bond framework dedicated to financing civil defence and resilience projects. The structure emphasizes a use‑of‑proceeds label that directs capital toward security‑related infrastructure while explicitly excluding armaments. The bank is consulting with development finance institutions (DFIs)...
Fitch reaffirmed Israel’s sovereign credit rating at A with a negative outlook on March 27, 2026, citing escalating war costs and fiscal strain. The agency highlighted that the ongoing Operation Lion’s Roar and northern front clashes forced Israel to exceed its budget...
The UST 2s5s steepener has been my 'white whale' trade the past year, facing constant pressure from shifting macro drivers. It was first flattened by the AI disruption trade, then crushed by the surge in front-end yields following the outbreak...
Long duration Treasuries performance now roughly matches the performance of the S&P 500 from July of last year. Think about that - duration is performing like stocks. That's a cycle shift starting.
The Iran war with the United States and Israel has triggered a sharp risk‑off shift, prompting private‑credit managers such as Ares and Apollo to cap redemptions as investor cash‑out requests surge. Direct‑lending defaults are projected to climb from 5.6% to...
The “rates don’t matter” crowd always disappears when duration starts moving. Watch $TLT. Watch $HYG. Equities can pretend yields are irrelevant… …right up until refinancing becomes a math problem. https://t.co/7BiLk7apui
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18
South Korean banks increased their lending rates for the fourth consecutive month in February, extending a credit‑tightening cycle that is pressuring both retail borrowers and commercial firms. The move reflects growing concerns over slowing growth and rising household debt, even...
The other chart we all gotta check daily. 👉 U.S. 10 Year Treasury 💥Almost hit 4.5% today😦 https://t.co/DVVhNkPrqm
6.64% has always been my line in sand for rates when they tick higher from here demand slows when they go lower toward 6% things improve. Hug a mortgage spread today https://t.co/DeRZntaHsC
Wolfspeed Inc. raised $475.9 million through a $379 million 3.5% convertible senior secured note offering and $96.9 million of equity and pre‑funded warrants. The proceeds were used to redeem $475.9 million of its 2030 senior secured notes, slashing the outstanding balance by 43%. The...
genuinely think the BoJ needs to emergency hike. don’t toy with the idea of shorting oil futures (you don’t have the juice for that). Ueda—the JGB steepening can end if you have the courage to do what’s right. https://t.co/cHO1FRRfAf
Not often you see STIRs trying to price hikes and cuts at the same time, but that is the current level of uncertainty. What will dominate in the next few months, inflation or a growth slowdown? Get...
And finally looking at the broad curve, belly (5s) has been under pressure past few weeks mostly driven by the flattening on the back side. Not a fan of 5s generally but it has cheapened a bunch and is...
We need to embargo Iranian oil to end this war. Biggest risk from that isn't catastrophically higher oil prices, but vulnerabilities in US financial markets due to the basis trade in the Treasury market and private credit. Those are our...
5y SOFR swap spreads have been heavy lately and just narrowed below -35 bps. Tactically good level IMO esp with the possibility of reg relief soon https://t.co/fjvHI7HVCz
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
Global Bond Yields continue to ramp higher alongside #Quad3 INFLATION Japan's 10yr ramped +11bps (thats a lot in a day) today joining the breakout in European and US Yields
Our Breakout Signal in Bond Market Volatility has turned out to be one of the fastest ROC ramps in the history of me modeling it https://t.co/NsHzTPL9fS
