Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen‑funded carry trade, raising bond market risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has made the yen the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that a sudden, aggressive tightening could compress spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Indian bond traders are pressing the government for buybacks as 10‑year yields climb despite a recent debt‑switch operation. The benchmark 10‑year yield rose to 6.6878%, up about five basis points after the Treasury swapped ₹755 billion of FY27 bonds for longer‑term notes. Weak investor demand and a heavy supply of new issuance have kept yields elevated, limiting the impact of the central bank’s record purchases. Market participants forecast the 10‑year yield could reach 6.80% by March if supply pressures persist.
58% of PIK in private credit is "bad PIK" per Lincoln. Borrower stops paying cash. Lender accepts more debt instead. Everyone marks it at par. This is called "performing."
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
RenaissanceRe launched the Stratos Fund, a $260.4 million catastrophe‑bond segregated account managed exclusively for a single institutional investor. The capital was transferred from the co‑mingled Medici cat‑bond strategy, making Stratos a fund‑of‑one rather than a multi‑investor vehicle. It is the second...
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
US dollar primary market began 2026 with robust corporate issuance, totaling $56 bn in January, driven largely by technology, media and telecom (TMT) firms contributing $24 bn. Banks led the financial sector, printing $134 bn of senior non‑preferred bonds, a $20 bn year‑to‑date increase...
Almost €1 trillion of Dutch pension assets are slated to transition by 2027, but early hedge rebalancing has already begun. Smaller funds moved interest‑rate hedges in December 2025, while larger players like PMT and PFZW are timing their flows for the first...
Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup *but* we do not have a clear sense of the...
The latest benchmark revision of the All‑Employees Total Nonfarm Vintage index reveals that post‑Liberation Day employment figures are weaker than previously reported, especially for August. The revised data shows a sharper decline during months associated with tariff policies, while months...
Bond ETFs are poised to challenge equity returns in 2026 as central banks move from aggressive tightening to policy normalization. The Invesco Equal Weight 0‑30 Year Treasury ETF (GOVI) offers a diversified, lower‑volatility alternative to the long‑duration iShares 20+ Year...
Alex Gurevich joins Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna on MacroVoices to outline his outlook for fixed‑income markets and the broader macro environment. He argues that the Federal Reserve will keep a restrictive policy stance into 2026, keeping inflation pressures in...
Wall Street expects a cooler month for headline inflation but a hotter month for core in January Headline CPI: 0.26% m/m, 2.5% y/y (down from 0.31% m/m and 2.7% y/y in December) Core CPI: 0.34% m/m, 2.5% y/y (core m/m accelerating from...
California’s Proposition 39 created citizen bond oversight committees (CBOCs) to add accountability to school‑facility bonds, but two‑decades of experience show they have not uncovered fraud. Annual audits remain compliance‑focused, while most fraud cases surface through law‑enforcement or targeted state investigations. The...
The bond market’s recent volatility, sparked by a strong jobs report, has calmed after this morning’s modest jobless‑claims data. Claims rose to 227,000, slightly above the 222,000 forecast but below the prior 232,000 level. With the CPI release looming, traders...
How might the Fed/Treasury do that? One possibility is to cut short rates to steepen the yield curve, and deregulate the banks into buying the long end so that the Fed’s balance sheet can be “privatized.” If those QE assets...
Retail investors are increasingly gravitating toward separately managed accounts (SMAs) and exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) as flexible, tax‑efficient ways to access municipal bonds. Muni SMAs now manage roughly $1.3 trillion across about 180 managers, while ETF holdings in the sector jumped 22.4%...
Things have been quiet on the rate side, with the 10-year yield trading at around 4 ¼ percent and expectations for a few more rate cuts (down to 3.1%) holding firm. We will likely soon have a lot more coordination between...
🆓 Thursday links: tight credit spreads, fast food woes, and who is paying the cost of tariffs. https://t.co/NOuKmm78S8 image: https://t.co/Lhs7cz5vWL https://t.co/nj3y6g7t8i
The episode dissects the impact of January's surprisingly strong jobs report, which undermined expectations of a weakening labor market and pushed anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts further into the future. It also examines a new Congressional Budget Office outlook that...
By 2036, the U.S. will spend $2.14 TRILLION a year on interest payments, versus just $1 trillion today. U.S. taxpayers are being taken to the cleaners. They’re paying for yesterday’s government largesse and receiving nothing for it. https://t.co/xMUu3S9H8I
Risk off upending most auction setups as US Treasury gets ready to dump some serious duration into a strong rally across the curve with belly leading. https://t.co/vNjhvRIzxH
Amundi has launched the Amundi Core GBP Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist on the London Stock Exchange, beginning trading on 12 February 2026. The fund tracks the Bloomberg Sterling Aggregate Corporate TR Value Unhedged GBP index, providing exposure to investment‑grade UK corporate...
Is Dedollarisation driving bond yields lower or is social media pushing the wrong story? A deep dive into dollar strength, Fed policy, gold, and global trade dynamics. Full breakdown inside 👉️ : https://t.co/qdYNFtTIhV https://t.co/rMDnvdP14u
The UK Treasury announced an update on the Digital Gilt Instrument (DIGIT) pilot, selecting HSBC’s Orion platform as the technology provider and Ashurst LLP for legal services. The competitive tender, launched in October 2025, aims to test distributed‑ledger technology for...
Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, argued on “Making Money” that the Federal Reserve should aggressively cut interest rates following the latest jobs report. He noted that the labor market remains solid but still offers room for monetary easing...
Swedavia, Sweden’s state‑owned airport operator, unveiled a green‑bond framework to fund airport infrastructure through public‑private partnerships. The model ties financing to ESG criteria, requiring projects such as terminals, car parks and people movers to meet strict environmental standards, often incorporating...
Municipal bond prices were mixed on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields climbed following a stronger‑than‑expected jobs report, prompting market participants to reassess the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut. The two‑year muni‑UST spread slipped to 59% while longer‑dated...
The 10‑year Treasury yield slipped 8 basis points after a trio of surprisingly strong labor‑market releases, settling just below the 4.20% technical barrier. January’s payrolls added 130,000 jobs, far exceeding the 70,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%...
Municipal bonds financing New Jersey's American Dream megamall slumped nearly 18% after bondholders sued over a contested property assessment. The 7% PILOT bonds due 2050 traded at 78 cents, the lowest price since issuance in 2017, while similar 6.75% bonds...
If the EU were only able to issue its own debt, imagine the possibilities… Yeah, imagine if you gave EU bureaucrats the power to spend an astronomical amount in addition to its power to regulate https://t.co/KAqbSOG71R
Trump says lower rates would save "at least one trillion dollars per year." The federal government's entire annual net interest bill was $970 billion in fiscal 2025—and much of that is locked in at rates on previously issued debt that...
In this episode, Mahesh Bhimalingam of Bloomberg Intelligence and Ashwin Palta of BNY Investments discuss the Bloomberg Intelligence 1Q26 Investor Survey, highlighting the continued resilience of credit and high‑yield markets despite recent tariff shocks and rate volatility. They examine why...
Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported a solid second‑half 2025 performance, with cash net profit climbing 6% and earnings per share increasing $0.19. The bank highlighted disciplined growth across its core retail and business segments despite cost‑of‑living pressures and global uncertainty....
NEOS MLP High Income ETF (MLPI) aims to deliver roughly 15% after‑tax yields by layering covered‑call premiums on a portfolio that mirrors the AMLP structure. The fund’s 100% return‑of‑capital distribution model defers taxes, boosting net income for investors. In addition...
Barings Participation Investors (MPV) is a high‑quality, income‑focused closed‑end fund delivering a 7.8% yield and solid dividend coverage. The fund’s floating‑rate private‑credit portfolio positions it to profit from future interest‑rate cuts. However, shares currently trade at a 21% premium to...
Ladder Capital (LADR) continues to position itself as a low‑volatility, conservatively managed CRE REIT, with management holding over 10% of the equity. The Q4 2025 report showed a miss on dividend coverage, yet the portfolio remains anchored by more than...
China Vanke, a state‑backed developer, announced a record 82 billion yuan ($11.8 billion) loss for 2025. The loss prompted the company to shrink its serviced‑apartment business, scaling back operations in Shenzhen under the Port Apartment brand. The move is part of a...
UK’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.3% after a string of negative corporate news. Energy giant BP announced a suspension of its share buyback programme and heightened cost‑cutting targets to fund oil production, while Standard Chartered saw its finance chief Diego De Giorgi...
Voya’s Strategic Income Opportunities Fund delivered outperformance in Q4 2025, surpassing its ICE BofA USD 3‑Month Deposit Index benchmark on a net asset value basis. The quarter was marked by heightened policy uncertainty due to a government shutdown, alongside market turbulence driven by a...
U.S. fixed‑income markets ended 2025 on a positive note as Federal Reserve rate cuts and cooling inflation lifted bond prices. Thornburg's municipal bond funds posted mixed returns, with the AAA curve flattening and short‑term yields rising while longer maturities fell....
Tradeweb Markets posted 12.5% year‑over‑year revenue growth in Q4 2025 and expanded its adjusted EBITDA margin to 53.2%, driven by strong volume gains in rates and derivatives. Early 2026 data shows double‑digit daily volume growth, supporting the firm’s high‑teens growth...
Country Garden shares rose about 1.8% after the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a circulated criticism for delayed debt disclosures but stopped short of imposing fines. The regulator flagged failures across three reporting periods and recorded disciplinary action against the firm...
Robinhood held its Q4 2025 earnings call on February 10 2026, where CEO Vladimir Tenev and CFO Shiv Verma presented a solid financial rebound. Revenue rose 18% year‑over‑year to $1.2 billion and the net loss narrowed to $150 million, reflecting higher margin contributions from crypto...
The BNY Mellon Global Fixed Income Fund posted a 0.67% return in Q4 2025, lagging its Bloomberg Global Aggregate USD‑Hedged benchmark by 11 basis points. Japanese government bonds surged, pushing the 10‑year yield 42 bp above the 2% threshold for the first...
XOMA Royalty Corporation’s 8.375% cumulative preferred (XOMAO) trades at an attractive 8.3% yield, positioning it as a high‑income vehicle. The company added 24 royalty‑related assets in 2025, expanding its cash‑flow base from biotech milestones and licensing fees. Management highlights the...
Bristow Group (VTOL) is positioned for medium‑term growth, capitalising on robust offshore energy demand in Brazil, Africa and the Caribbean. Recent debt refinancing and stronger free‑cash flow have shored up its balance sheet, enabling planned share buybacks and a 2026...
LayerZero, backed by Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia, unveiled Zero—a new blockchain built for traditional finance. The network leverages zero‑knowledge proofs to claim 2 million transactions per second at sub‑cent costs, far outpacing Solana’s 100k TPS limit. Wall Street heavyweights including Citadel Securities,...
Google issuing a 100-year bond to fund AI capex. Remember JC Penney’s 100-year bond? Issued in 1997. Bankrupt in 2020. At least they got their basis back in coupons.
“Business Development Companies” have been hammered in the recent software selloff. Alphaville dug into the data of some of the biggest ones to find out if software creditors are in trouble. https://t.co/ybVLHwLoCi https://t.co/AMQPhflF5J
China is directing state‑owned banks to cut U.S. Treasury holdings to roughly $750 billion by 2025, halving its 2010 peak. The reduction removes a major buyer from the market, shifting the financing burden toward Japan, the world’s largest foreign‑reserve holder. Japan’s...
