Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen‑funded carry trade, raising bond market risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has made the yen the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that a sudden, aggressive tightening could compress spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Fitch Ratings assigned an ‘A’ rating to Lee County, Florida’s airport revenue bonds, Series 2026, and affirmed the rating on existing bonds with a stable outlook. The rating reflects a balanced carrier mix serving a leisure‑focused market and enplanements that topped 5.5 million in 2025. Strong financial metrics, including competitive debt‑service coverage and low cost‑per‑enplanement, underpin the rating despite new financing for terminal expansion. A 10‑year hybrid airline use‑lease agreement further secures revenue recovery.
⚠️The US Dollar's role in global reserves is FALLING: USD share in global currency reserves dropped to ~40%, the lowest in at least 25 years. This is down from ~58% a decade ago. During the same period, gold’s share has risen from 16%...
A year ago, CDS on Alphabet and Meta didn't exist. Now they're among the most actively traded single-name contracts in the US market Nobody creates a default insurance market for fun... $GOOG $META
Cohu, Inc. posted a Q4 earnings miss despite a 34% surge in recurring bookings and over 12% revenue growth, keeping operating losses and margins under pressure. The company added $290 million of convertible debt, raising dilution concerns, while one‑time inventory charges...
AI disruption is hitting IG credit spreads, not just stock prices. Concentrix: BBB-rated, 455,000 call center employees. Paid 130bps concession to refinance. Stock down 24% last week. Spreads doubled in February. Credit markets pricing obsolescence before it shows up in earnings.
Two things are simultaneously true -- a) China's surplus doesn't automatically flow into its fx reserves and then into Treasuries and Agencies b) China's large ongoing surplus (+ the increase in fx assets of the state banks) cautions against using the...
S&P Global (SPGI) is a $133 billion market‑cap provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions. The company has raised its dividend for 53 consecutive years and trades at a 21.9× P/E, roughly 20% below its five‑year average, implying undervaluation....
One of a number of potentially important macro divergences that occurred in 2H25 is shown below. For the prior 10+ years, foreign Central Banks sold USTs when the USD rose and bought USTs when the USD fell. In 2H25, foreign CB’s sold...
Bond futures well bid again as the curve flattens aggressively with front end whites all red. https://t.co/d4dX0TgauD
The European Central Bank announced that, from the third quarter of 2026, it will expand its EUREP euro repo facility to a global €50 billion line available to any central bank that meets AML and sanctions criteria. The repo offers euro...
The Treasury will auction a 30‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Security (TIPS) this week, offering a real‑yield that could attract investors seeking long‑term inflation hedges. Analysts note that redeeming early‑year I Bonds can generate an unexpected tax liability, complicating cash‑flow planning. Recent CPI...
State Street’s SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF (SPTS) is gaining attention as its 1.85‑year duration aligns with a lower‑inflation environment, allowing a growth‑focused mandate. The ETF’s exposure to short‑term rate moves helps it sidestep risks tied to long‑term USD...
Fleet Data Centers, the development arm of Tract, announced a $3.8 billion senior secured note issuance to fund a 230 MW data center campus in Reno, Nevada. The facility, built on a 252‑acre site, is 100 percent leased to an unnamed investment‑grade tenant...
TCW Strategic Income Fund (TSI) announced a roughly 30% increase in its monthly dividend, pushing its distribution yield to about 6.9%. The closed‑end fund trades at a 7.62% discount to net asset value and carries a Buy rating. TSI’s portfolio...
In Part II, the podcast examines how the ongoing "Great Compression" of money‑market rates is pushing the Federal Reserve to replace its traditional overnight Fed Funds target with a new benchmark. It explains that overnight Fed Funds volume has collapsed...
My periodic reminder that the US TIC data doesn't measure China's holdings of US Treasuries. It only measures China's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The real question is how many Treasuries Chinese entities hold in non US...
The episode reviews Zambia's overdue debt restructuring progress, highlighting a post‑default €3 billion Eurobond swap that now accounts for about a quarter of its external debt and a 95% debt‑to‑GDP ratio. It notes strong market rebounds with the kwacha up 15%...
This isn’t a victory lap, and it isn’t a doom story. The U.S. economy is closer to a soft landing than it’s been in some time, and there are real risks that could undo it from multiple directions. I try...
The episode examines a ten‑year preferred security that now trades just above par, offering a high current yield and a short time to a likely call. The host highlights the bond’s attractive spread over Treasuries, its qualified‑dividend tax treatment, and...
The best macro trade of the past 5 years was Warren buffet’s Japanese bond issuance imo. Got him short the currency, short rates all while he was long the equities (trading houses).
The CBO projects publicly held U.S. debt will surpass 106% of GDP by 2030 and reach 120% by 2036. Average Treasury interest rates are expected to climb to 3.9% by the end of the forecast, outpacing nominal GDP growth that...
Vanguard launched the Multi‑Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS) in June 2025, offering a 5.19% SEC yield and a low 0.30% expense ratio. Over the past eight months the actively managed fund outperformed the benchmark AGG by 93 basis points, delivering...
After jobs and CPI, mkt has ~2.5 Fed rate cuts discounted this year. 2-10 yr curve flattened back-to-back weeks for first time since Oct. 10 yr yield 3-month low. Be prepared for next week. See...
January’s consumer‑price index showed modest headline inflation, rising 0.3% month‑over‑month and 3.2% year‑over‑year, but the report included several qualifiers. Core CPI eased to 4.8% annual, driven by lower energy costs, while shelter and services remained sticky. Analysts highlighted the mixed...
Pemex is back in the bond market after six years — and demand was strong. This doesn't signal confidence in Pemex. Buyers are really underwriting the Mexican state. https://t.co/YRGXmzi4aW #Pemex #Mexico #OilMarkets #EnergySecurity #SovereignRisk #DebtMarkets #EmergingMarkets
First Trust Senior Floating Rate Income Fund II (FCT) remains a hold as its earnings growth stalls and its 11.7% yield faces pressure. Net investment income is insufficient to fully fund distributions, forcing the fund to rely on realized gains,...
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) fell sharply at 8:30 am today, a sign markets think today's CPI was benign and so the Fed cuts more. Bloomberg's XAU/$ gold price (white) rose around the same time, which is consistent with that...
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
S&P Global Ratings lowered Central Alabama Water’s revenue‑bond rating to AA‑minus from AA and placed the issue on CreditWatch Negative. The downgrade reflects weakening liquidity, high debt levels and aging infrastructure, compounded by delayed budget adoption after a state‑mandated governance...
The Fixed‑Asset Securitization Tracker (FAST) released its February 2026 Definitions report, detailing the data fields used in automotive securitization tapes. The document supplies precise definitions, code tables, and cross‑references to related transaction disclosures. By standardizing terminology, the report aims to simplify...
U.S. Treasury yields fell after the January CPI came in cooler than expected, pulling municipal bond yields lower as well. Despite the softer inflation print, analysts say the Federal Reserve will likely keep rates on hold and consider only a...
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted a mixed CPI report, noting a modest 0.2% month‑over‑month rise in headline inflation and a steady 2.5% year‑over‑year rate. While core inflation matched expectations, services inflation remains elevated, keeping overall inflation around 3% and...
Every BDC quarterly letter should just say “we are choosing not to mark this down and you can’t make us.”
I believe this is a false rally. Look at Utilities. That's defensive positioning. Same with long duration Treasuries. We remain in a risk-off condition for now.
California’s Department of Water Resources issued a $546 million Central Valley Project water‑revenue bond under a new 2026 resolution, reporting a 4.14 % all‑in true interest cost. The 5 % coupon bonds carry yields from 1.70 % to 4.27 % and mature between 2027 and...
Post Hedgeye's Nowcast nailing another decel in CPI Growth decelerates → yields fall → correlations re-assert That’s the whole #Quad3 playbook ✔️ Duration bullish ✔️ Utilities work ✔️ Gold works ❌ Financials don’t
Austin’s $1.6 billion convention‑center replacement, financed mainly through revenue bonds, has entered a legal showdown at the Texas Supreme Court. Petitioners seeking to halt demolition argue the city clerk’s signature count fell short, while the city maintains the count was accurate....
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will begin reporting loan‑level interest‑rate buydown information as a new attribute, L‑117, starting April 20 for MBS issued on or after May 1. The disclosures classify loans into five categories—moderate, significant, other, not applicable, and not available—using...
Resilient labor. Cooling inflation. Duration rallying. Yen surging. 130K jobs. CPI at 2.4%. 10Y yields sliding. Dollar down on the week. This isn’t a clean cycle — it’s macro crosscurrents. Full breakdown: https://t.co/vNAZw80IbE
Floating‑rate notes are gaining traction as a higher‑yielding alternative to Treasury bills, especially as short‑term rates rise. VanEck's IG Floating Rate ETF (FLTR) offers a 4.28% yield, low duration, and strong credit quality, making it attractive for income‑focused investors. The...
A very positive setup for duration and UST term premium compression if rates are to stay low for a longer timeframe because of AI disruption. It will take time to play out but long end is well priced and...
In this brief episode, J.P. Morgan analysts Francis Diamond and Frida Infante examine the current state and near‑term outlook for Swedish and Norwegian sovereign and corporate rate markets. They highlight that both countries are entering a prolonged period of low‑rate...
Bonds rallied as the latest CPI data showed headline inflation just below forecasts and core inflation on target, pushing 10‑year Treasury yields down to 4.07%. Shelter costs continued to ease, with owners' equivalent rent hitting a cycle low. Meanwhile, the...
The Central Bank of Egypt cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it down to 19.0% as inflation eases to 11.9% after a peak of 38% in 2023. The Bank of Russia trimmed its key rate by another...
It has been a painful few weeks for the short belly crowd (moi included) as 5s has been kinging up on the curve. Warsh nomination and slow AI disruption have been the main culprits https://t.co/3pqYjTV3QZ
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
