Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
Louisiana’s State Bond Commission authorized up to $400 million in general‑obligation bonds, to be sold by competitive bid on April 16. The issuance will raise about $383.7 million, with roughly 67 % earmarked for state‑government capital projects, 26 % for local governments and the remainder for NGOs. The commission also approved a refunding plan for $285.9 million of 2016 series bonds, with pricing slated between April 16 and June 3. The bonds carry AA‑minus to AA ratings, and Fitch upgraded its outlook to positive.
The episode dissects YYY, an ETF that offers exposure to a rules‑based basket of high‑income closed‑end funds (CEFs) via a fund‑of‑funds structure. It highlights the layered risks of credit exposure, embedded leverage, and premium/discount dynamics, noting that performance is highly...
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, sending U.S. equities up about 0.7% and lifting the 10‑year Treasury yield back to roughly 4.10%. The decision removes a source of tariff‑derived revenue, reviving fiscal‑deficit concerns and creating upside...
The yield curve inverted 43 mos ago ... still no recession Nearly everyone told us a recession was coming. If you didn't, you were mocked and told it was Quad Four People say the NFC winning the Super Bowl being good for...
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) and most EU national competent authorities have released a list of supplementary deferrals that extend the MiFIR transparency regime for sovereign bonds. The new rule permits the omission of volume publication for medium‑size...
The high‑yield municipal bond market is heating up early in 2024, with $2.3 billion of speculative‑grade issuance recorded YTD, representing roughly 3.4% of total municipal issuance. Strong investor appetite and a tight primary‑market supply have driven several previously shelved deals back...
Everyone has a BDC take this week. Most of them are wrong. If you don't understand how they trade, what drives the discount, or why NAV isn't what you think it is, start here. https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/the-bdc-primer-part-1
While 15% is close to what many countries ended up negotiating with Trump, he invoked IEEPA to threaten much higher rates, providing powerful leverage. If 15% is an effective ceiling (outside 301/232 actions), that changes the bargaining dynamic.
Western Asset Diversified Income Fund (WDI) trades at a 3.04% discount to NAV and offers a 12.41% yield, positioning it as a high‑yield income vehicle. The fund’s portfolio is heavily weighted toward high‑yield corporate bonds and a sizable floating‑rate component,...
USTs for now reacting to the loss of tariff revenue, but it remains to be seen how this plays out. Curve steepening https://t.co/ZMjLP2vbxi
While the U.S. private sector repaired its balance sheet after 2008, the government did not. Gov’t debt to GDP ratio has climbed from 40% in 2007 to almost 110% today. THE U.S. NEEDS A DEBT BRAKE. UNSUSTAINABLE DEBT = FISCAL CRISIS. https://t.co/38NJYDyJgP
The episode examines Blackstone’s $3.05 billion CMBS refinancing of The Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas, highlighting the surge in high‑quality hospitality securitizations and the city’s enduring appeal to institutional investors. Guests Randy Plavajka and Shihao Feng explain how post‑pandemic destination resilience and a growing...
The Virtus Newfleet Multi‑Sector Bond ETF posted a 1.64% NAV return in Q4 2025, beating the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index’s 1.10% gain. The fund’s deliberate underweight to U.S. Treasuries captured excess returns as spread‑rich sectors outperformed. Management continued to fine‑tune...
The Return Stacked Bonds & Managed Futures ETF (RSBT) posted a 12.25% year‑over‑year price gain after a tough 2022‑23 inflation cycle. The fund allocates capital between the AGG bond ETF and a suite of trend‑following managed‑futures strategies, positioning it as...
The Bank of Japan has ended its ultra‑easy stance, pushing policy rates to the highest level in decades and pricing in another hike. Higher domestic yields are likely to trigger repatriation of Japanese savings, cutting the flow of low‑cost funding...
Forecasters expect PCE inflation (core and headline) was 0.37% in December (4.5% annualized rate). This would push up the core PCE index to 3.0% over 12 months, the highest since February 2025 Headline PCE is estimated at 2.9%, the highest since March...
ICMA responded to the FCA’s CP25/32 consultation on improving the UK transaction‑reporting regime, focusing on MiFIR cash‑bond reporting and the SFTR repo reporting framework. The feedback was produced by two dedicated ICMA working groups—a newly formed MiFIR Transaction Reporting Taskforce...
TIP Solar, backed by GoodLeap’s residential solar leases and PPAs, has issued $179.7 million in asset‑backed securities. The ABS are collateralized by 7,812 leases held by Jaguar Solar Owner 2026‑1 and structured into A‑ and B‑tranches with anticipated repayments through March 2033 and...
The U.S. Treasury’s latest 30‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) auction posted a real yield of 2.473%, the second‑highest level in the past 16 years and the highest since the series was relaunched in February 2010. Demand was strong, with the...
Bond ladder ETFs are emerging as a transparent alternative for retirees seeking steady, inflation‑protected income. The Northern Trust 2045 Inflation‑Linked Distributing Ladder ETF (TIPC) structures a 20‑year ladder of TIPS, delivering annual principal payouts as each rung matures. By evenly...
CLO ETFs have surged into the mainstream, pulling in $4 billion of net inflows in the first six weeks of 2026. Total assets now top $35 billion, more than doubling in just over a year, with most money flowing into AAA‑rated funds....
SageSure has risen to third place on the Artemis catastrophe‑bond sponsor leaderboard after closing its largest Gateway Re issuance, a $670 million multi‑peril cat bond. The transaction brings the MGU’s outstanding risk capital to just over $3.1 billion across 12 issuances. The...
The post examines how the 10‑year US‑German bond yield spread correlates with the USD/EUR exchange rate, showing that higher US yields usually coincide with dollar appreciation. A notable exception occurred after April 2 2025, when a sharp US yield rise was followed...
Veritas, the Finnish pension insurer, is moving past traditional credit benchmarks to chase carry in frontier‑market local‑currency bonds. Portfolio manager Ville Iso‑Mustajärvi argues that corporate spreads in developed markets are near historic lows, making high‑yield bonds unattractive due to equity‑like...
The episode revisits the author’s earlier research reports from October and December 2025 on a leading natural‑gas utility, reaffirming its investment thesis built on ultra‑low leverage, a management team focused on debt reduction, high‑quality assets, and accelerating free cash flow....
Bloomberg announced the Bloomberg Eris SOFR Swap Futures Tracker Indices, a suite of 11 new rules‑based indices that track the performance of Eris SOFR swap futures across the U.S. dollar interest‑rate curve. The indices span tenors from one‑year to 30‑year...
Nordea’s Active Rates Opportunities Fund has broken the €1 billion AUM threshold, underscoring strong investor appetite for low‑risk, active‑duration fixed‑income solutions. Since its 2019 launch, the fund has delivered more than 2 % per annum in net returns above cash, even as...
The article argues that quantitative easing and expansive fiscal policies have propelled equities while leaving long‑duration bonds lagging, with gold emerging as the top performer since 2022. Chart data shows the S&P 500 up over 700% since 2010, whereas TLT...
🚨Chinese officials had urged banks to limit purchases of US government bonds, and instructed those with high exposure to SELL their positions. Data shows China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to $682.6 billion, the lowest since the Financial Crisis.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-the-us-dollar-gradually-losing-its-safe-haven-status
I've been teaching this for decades, and now the data proves it: 90% of government money creation between 2000 and 2024 was cancelled out by secondary bond sales. The system we have actively destroys the money governments create. EconomicReform
The International Islamic Financial Market (IIFM) and the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to create a global, Shari’ah‑compliant repo master agreement. Leveraging ICMA’s Global Master Repurchase Agreement expertise and IIFM’s Islamic‑finance standards, the project...
One more note on the Fed minutes: Sometimes it's interesting what they don't say. Last year at every meeting until December, the staff forecast called for inflation to return to 2% by 2027. In December, the forecast pushed this back to...
I will be joining @CNBC's @michaelsantoli this afternoon at 430p ET for a discussion of the credit markets--including, yes, private credit. Snip from our Outlook 2026. https://t.co/u8NP4oAYoL https://t.co/umYLiLDzTY
Sprite’s aviation securitization platform is launching a $495 million asset‑backed securities (ABS) program backed by lease contracts on 30 aircraft. The issuance comprises three fixed‑rate tranches with an anticipated repayment date in March 2033 and a final legal maturity in March 2041. World...
in what world could revising up your dot which is ~100bps below OIS to ~50bps below OIS be considered “turning hawkish”?
Last week’s CPI report came in soft at 2.4%, which was understandably well received by the bond market. The Truflation index, which has plummeted to a 0.7% year-over-year rate of change, hinted at a softer turn for the CPI. https://t.co/ZsIPypfaNW
European investment‑grade credit remains resilient in early 2026 despite a 2% YoY dip in EBITDA growth and modest leverage creep. Interest‑coverage ratios have stabilised and rating upgrades in Spain and Italy bolster the sector’s outlook. Spreads have tightened to historic...
Long-end breakevens have been under pressure with a brand new 30y TIPS ($9B) up for auction later today. This will be it for the long end though. Rest of the month is front (2s) and belly (5s &...
Thursday: Equity futures lower, treasury yields edge higher by 1-2 bps and dollar steady. Jobless claims in focus today.
The Federal Reserve’s February 2026 FOMC minutes reveal that most participants remain uneasy about inflation, which is still above the central bank’s 2% target. The minutes signal a willingness to raise rates again if price pressures are not curbed, underscoring...
The volume of retail-focused private credit funds has ballooned over the last few years, and is expected to grow to trillions of dollars of assets in that next few years. This points to why this could challenge the broader industry:...
Yep- Skew on TLT (calls expensive to outs) like 1 month out is in the 90th%tile. Gonna get shaken out before yields go lower. Let’s talk about this tomorrow on @ForwardGuidance
Northeast public issuers are grappling with crumbling infrastructure, rising construction costs and a wave of federal funding cuts. Tariffs and buy‑American requirements are inflating bus purchases for NJ Transit, while the Gateway tunnel project remains stalled after a $205 million funding...
Macro: global growth slows; rates remain sticky. Key factors: US CPI, China demand, energy. Risks: policy missteps, inflation shocks. Trade: shorten duration in US Treasuries. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Minutes from the Fed's Jan. 27-28 meeting laid bare a lingering divide over where to set the bar for further rate cuts. In Fed speak, "some" is larger than "several" which means the group of "some" officials that includes those with...
FOMC minutes suggest that the hawks pushed back. "Several would support two-sided language" about policy direction and "several" noted that if inflation remains high, rate hikes might be necessary.
Key paragraph of the FOMC minutes from January. (I am honestly a bit confused by the 'minutes math.') The main takeaway is that there is considerable disagreement. Cut, hold, and (even possibly) hike all got a nod. https://t.co/eV9ldjldl1 https://t.co/K53g1yqKJ8
A note re: $OPEN and $Lennar --- if you back it out, Lennar held 18.5M shares of Opendoor at end of its Q3. The 13F likely indicates either they had some anti-dilution protections or participated in debt-for-equity swap, and that’s why...
Few FOMC minutes takeaways: 1) Cmte basically in line with markets on major economic variables 2) Labor markets no longer outright weakening but remain fragile 3) Inflation decelerating as tariff passthru done, housing has downside (a misread on bad CPI method in Oct?) 1/...
Great reminder futures rolls (H25 to M26) are upon us. Bottomline March 2y futs should be heavy. Roll is nasty at -4.5 which should add to the flattening pressure along with front-end auctions next week.
