Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
Home prices edged higher in the latest quarter, while Chase announced a modest rate discount to spur loan demand. Retail giant Bed Bath & Beyond entered the mortgage origination space, signaling non‑traditional players’ interest in housing finance. Bayview Capital began stocking GSE‑eligible loans within non‑agency MBS, reflecting strong investor appetite for agency‑quality assets outside traditional channels. Meanwhile, banks trimmed residential MBS holdings and stablecoins emerged as an alternative warehouse‑funding source, underscoring shifting liquidity dynamics in the mortgage market.
"March has historically been the weakest month for munis over the past 30 years. Even so, we continue to favor the long end of the muni curve, where tax-equivalent yields remain attractive." -Larry Adam, Raymond James
The Oklahoma Supreme Court is set to rule on $1.45 billion of winter‑storm bonds issued by Oklahoma Gas & Electric and Public Service Company of Oklahoma. Republican lawmakers allege the Oklahoma Corporation Commission violated state audit and ethics rules when authorizing...
A consortium of leading financial institutions executed the first cross‑border, intraday repurchase agreement using tokenized U.K. government bonds on the Canton Network. The trade featured the inaugural cross‑currency swap of tokenized gilts for tokenized deposits, with smart contracts encoding interest...
Zurich‑based Plenum Investments announced that its assets under management have topped US$2 billion, roughly doubling the figure achieved in July 2023. The growth stems from four UCITS catastrophe‑bond and insurance‑linked securities funds, which now enjoy institutional‑scale assets. The firm’s organic expansion reflects...
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's main stock index, the BIST 100, is up nearly 24% YTD, and foreign investors are piling into Turkish bonds and equities. Turkey's disinflation story is gaining credibility and capital is flowing in. BEWARE. TURKEY'S MONETARY POLICY REMAINS TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/ubNTzVl6KH
The California FAIR Plan secured a $400 million wildfire reinsurance cat bond from Golden Bear Re Ltd. (Series 2026‑2), priced at a 9.5 % spread and an expected loss of 2.65 %. The single‑tranche issuance runs three years to February 2029 and brings the plan’s...
Business development companies (BDCs) are experiencing a resurgence, highlighted by a 30‑day SEC yield of 9.21% for VanEck’s BIZD ETF and an industry‑wide yield of roughly 11.3%. Credit metrics show non‑accrual rates at 1.2% and loan prices near par, indicating...
State and local governments issued a record $498 billion in municipal bonds in 2024 and topped $580 billion in 2025, driven primarily by infrastructure, education, and transportation projects. The surge reflects a shift from waning federal pandemic aid to local financing for...
Japan's Ministry of Finance is weighing changes to its liquidity‑enhancement auction framework for government bonds, aiming to ease supply pressure on the super‑long end of the curve. From April, the mid‑term bucket could be narrowed from a 5‑15.5‑year range to...
FPA Short Duration Government ETF posted a 1.05% return in Q4 2025 and a 6.84% gain for the full year. The performance was driven by Treasury interest income and price appreciation as yields fell across the curve. The fund kept its...
The probability weighted average of both @jasonfurman and the survey average is 2.3%*, i.e. solid breakout. That's bullish; CBO is at 1.8%. *(Assumes 5% for the >4% phase transition scenario. I figure probabilities of higher figures quickly fall to...
Truth: “If spreads keep widening and banks keep lagging, this is more than a one day shakeout. If they stabilize, this was the market resetting positioning and rotating and not the start of a whole new regime.”
The Structured Finance Association (SFA) and Bloomberg Index Services are co‑creating a new credit securities index that spans multiple asset classes. Designed to deliver consistent, transparent performance and risk metrics, the index will be embedded directly into Bloomberg Terminal workflows...
The Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF (GOLY) combines gold, commodity, and fixed‑income exposure using leverage to deliver a trailing‑twelve‑month distribution yield near 7%. Unlike many gold‑focused ETFs, GOLY does not write options, instead relying on bond income and capital...
A federal judge in Connecticut dismissed a lawsuit filed by former COFINA bondholders against insurers Ambac, MBIA and related subsidiaries, citing a lack of personal jurisdiction. The ruling allows plaintiffs to refile a second‑amended complaint against MBIA Inc. by March 6,...
iShares has moved four of its short‑term fixed‑income ETFs—SGOV, SHV, PMMF and GMMF—from the electronic NYSE Arca platform to the NYSE’s hybrid floor model. The funds total roughly $96 billion in assets, with SGOV alone managing $75 billion and attracting about $6 billion of...
I vibe coded a widget to show the idea of the blog post below. It simulates yield curve evolutions and equity market returns. Then it plots the distribution of annualized returns and volatilities over a given horizon using...
#mortgagespreads have allowed rates to get below 6% without the 10-year yield below 4% @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Documents obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request reveal that FHFA Director Bill Pulte met with a broad array of industry participants during the first seven months of his tenure. The schedule shows more than 150 engagements with banks,...
Redwood introduced an expanded‑credit mortgage‑backed security, widening the pool of agency‑eligible assets as banks see their residential MBS holdings dip in Q4. Mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) are now being offered directly, reflecting heightened M&A activity that is reshaping the conventional...
The Bond Buyer’s 2026 Predictions Survey, conducted with 74 public‑finance professionals, identified political uncertainty as the top five‑year threat to municipal finance, with 82% of respondents flagging it. Nearly half see tariff‑related volatility as a moderate to significant risk for...
Fixed‑income ETFs have surged, yet most remain passive, contrasting sharply with the active dominance in mutual‑funds. J.P. Morgan’s report notes 85 % of global fixed‑income mutual‑fund assets are actively managed, while only about 17 % of fixed‑income ETF assets use active strategies....
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
Fed governor Chris Waller conditions his support for a March cut (or hold) on the February payroll data due for release on March 6. “As things stand today, I rate these two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip.” https://t.co/8ompstwgY9 If...
Global Parametrics’ new whitepaper argues that catastrophe bonds and parametric insurance can help bridge the widening humanitarian financing gap, which stands at roughly 36% of the projected $50 billion need in 2024. The report highlights that multi‑year cat bonds can unlock...
5-handle The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 5.99% Same day last year: 6.89% ---------------------- 10-year treasury yield today: 4.03% Spread today: 196 bps
How China largely sold out of their net UST exposure yrs ago AND cornered critical minerals without ever impacting UST or commodity markets: Lend USDs along Belt & Road (BRI), repayable in either USD, CNY, or physical commodities This amounted to swapping...
Senegal’s public debt has surged to roughly 132% of GDP, placing the country in a severe fiscal bind. With limited access to cheap financing, the government faces a stark choice between costly debt service and a structured debt‑restructuring process. Analysts...
Small sector (~3% of USD fixed income), but wild relative flows into munis indicative of HNW demand. https://t.co/tEbLFk9ZiL
U.S. 10-year yields $TNX with all the @federalreserve increase rate decreases (green circles) since the latest (rate dropping) cycle started in Sep '24... https://t.co/Tch3MSks2c
Lumen Re, the reinsurance arm of LGT ILS Partners, completed its debut Photon Re Series 2026‑1 catastrophe bond, locking in $175 million of fully‑collateralized retrocession protection against North American peak perils. The issuance was priced below the original guidance, with the...
why is it called the federal open market committee when said market is very clearly managed and a closed system
5-year UST becoming the primary beneficiary of AI-driven disruption. Market pricing a 'lower for longer' rate environment, richening the belly. 2s5s10s 'fly https://t.co/7Rs11vfQp5
Calamos Convertible & High Income Fund (CHY) trades near fair value while delivering a roughly 10 % distribution yield. Earnings consistently exceed the cash paid out, supporting NAV growth despite negative net investment income. The fund’s portfolio—about 69 % convertibles and 23 %...
March cut may be a coin flip for Waller based on Feb payrolls, but it's not for the FOMC. Cut odds close to zero
Rising market liquidity and higher probability‑of‑default (PD) levels are unlocking new opportunities in the secondary market for Significant Risk Transfer (SRT) instruments. Early stress signals in loan portfolios have prompted investors to shift capital toward buying and selling existing SRT...
The national average savings account interest is 0.39%. Yet T-bills are paying ~3.6% and no state/local taxes. Can buy them from TreasuryDirect or your broker. Or Treasury ETF (e.g $VBIL) or Treasury MMF (e.g $VUSXX) pay ~3.64%. Don't let your savings earn pennies.
⚠️WHAT IS HAPPENING IN JAPAN? The 4 largest Japanese life insurers, Nippon Life, Dai-ichi Life, Sumitomo Life, and Meiji Yasuda, had a combined ¥13.2 trillion ($86 billion) in unrealized losses on government bonds at the end of 2025. Losses have risen over...
Lincoln International’s Private Market Index shows the $3 trillion private‑credit sector is growing in size but slipping in quality. Enterprise value rose 1.9% while EBITDA growth slowed and the “shadow default” rate more than doubled to 6.4% over the past year....
Everyone's worried about foreign countries dumping U.S. bonds, but here's what mainstream economists won't tell you about government finances. The link to the complete presentation is in the comments.
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
Vedanta Resources secured a $350 million, 3.5‑year revolving credit facility from a consortium of six banks, including First Abu Dhabi Bank, Mashreq, Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan. The loan, priced at SOFR + 435 bps, will refinance existing maturities, fund interest payments and...
DoubleLine strategists Ryan Kimmel and Mark Kimbrough highlighted a sector rotation this week, with communications services, financials and industrials gaining while traditional “old economy” sectors such as utilities and real estate fell. In fixed income, investment‑grade yields edged higher, but...
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported a sharp decline in 2025 net earnings, falling roughly 12% year‑over‑year. The drop coincides with an 8% contraction in bank holdings of agency residential mortgage‑backed securities in Q4 and a reduced share of correspondent...
Representative Hill voiced strong skepticism toward President Trump’s proposal to launch an initial public offering of the government‑sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. He warned that a rushed IPO could destabilize the secondary mortgage market and raise borrowing costs...
Both short and long term, this is a good level to fade the belly with the curve-wide 'fly (2s5s30s) back below -90. Mid-curve auctions next week could trigger a reversal https://t.co/q33LIbWZ5V
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC agreed to pay a $140,000 fine after FINRA found the firm violated MSRB Rule G‑32 and Rule G‑27. The violations involved inaccurate or incomplete Form G‑32 filings for 718 municipal bond offerings and late submission of 26 offering documents...
Goldman Sachs has launched the GS Mortgage‑Backed Securities Trust 2026‑PJ2, a $321.2 million residential mortgage‑backed security backed by a pool of 255 first‑lien, fixed‑rate prime mortgages. The structure features a senior‑subordinate, shifting‑interest hierarchy with class A AAA‑rated notes and several lower‑rated tranches,...
In this week's #OnInvesting, @LizAnnSonders and I talk about Fed minutes, mixed signals on inflation & unemployment, and weakness in the survey data. Liz Ann & @KevRGordon discuss the latest GDP report and the impact of tariffs, AI-driven investment and...
