Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
Fitch Puts Philippines Credit Outlook Negative as Growth Slows to 4.6% Forecast
Fitch Ratings changed the Philippines' sovereign credit outlook from stable to negative, warning that falling public investment and higher energy costs threaten growth. The agency projects GDP expansion of 4.6% this year after a slowdown to 4.4% last year, keeping the long‑term rating at BBB but flagging heightened fiscal and external risks.
1981 US Rates Hit 16%, Outpacing Global Peers
Trump tells CNBC that the US had interest rates much lower than other countries when he was younger. The US had interest rates as high as 16% in 1981 -- far higher than major trade partners like West Germany and Japan...
Why Conflict Makes Interest Rates More Volatile, and How Advisors Can Manage
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income portfolio manager Naveed Sunderji says recent Middle‑East conflict has reignited interest‑rate volatility in Canada, pushing market expectations for Bank of Canada hikes higher. The shift follows a March peak where investors priced three 25‑basis‑point hikes in...
Delevering With Purpose
Fixed Income Beacon’s April investment brief spotlights a high‑yield energy bond that could deliver an above‑market coupon for an extra year. If the bond is called in summer 2027, investors would see a 6.2% annualized return and a spread of...
Wall Street, FOMC Scrutinize Warsh Amid Trump Rate‑Cut Pressure
The toughest audiences at Warsh's confirmation hearing won't be in the room. Wall Street and the FOMC are watching how he'll manage Trump's pressure to cut interest rates. The president is watching for signs he'll deliver on expectations he set...
EM Lens: Identifying Alpha Opportunities in EM Fixed Income
Creditors are re‑entering emerging‑market (EM) fixed income as technical supply‑demand dynamics, positive rating momentum, and wide real‑yield differentials create a supportive backdrop. Ninety‑One portfolio manager Thys Louw and Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Damian Sassower discuss how these factors generate alpha in...
RBI Prematurely Redeems 2020‑21 Sovereign Gold Bonds, Investors See 200% Gains
The Reserve Bank of India announced on April 20 that holders of the 2020‑21 Series‑VII Sovereign Gold Bonds can redeem early, receiving ₹15,254 per unit—about $184—up from the original ₹5,051 issue price of $61. The move translates to a more...
Liquid Dodges Debt Crunch – at a Hefty Price
Liquid Intelligent Technologies completed a $660 million refinancing that eliminates its near‑term default risk. The deal centers on a $300 million senior secured bond at a 10.75% coupon, replacing a 5.5% bond due in September. Additional financing includes a $150 million syndicated term...
Rates Spark: Bonds Losing Their Edge as a Hedge
Bonds are losing their appeal as a hedge against equities as correlations between German Bunds and stock indices hit record highs, while long‑end inflation expectations remain anchored. Front‑end rates are volatile amid lingering Middle East tensions, but the longer end...
Indian Debt Funds Cut Hedges as Oil Risks Inflate Rate-Hike Bets
Indian debt fund managers, including Bandhan AMC and ICICI Prudential, are unwinding overnight indexed swap (OIS) hedges as soaring oil prices and the Iran conflict push market expectations for higher interest rates. The two‑year swap rate remains near 6%, roughly...
New Sponsoring Member of the Government Securities Division of FICC: Nomura Securities International, Inc./Omnibus CiL– GSD #94DK
FICC announced that Nomura Securities International will become a sponsoring member of its Government Securities Division Collateral‑in‑Lieu (CIL) service effective April 24, 2026. The new status lets Nomura sponsor eligible cash lenders into GSD membership, allowing them to execute Sponsored GC CIL...
Apollo’s Torsten Slok Warns on Treasury Leverage: The “Basis Trade” Risk Re-Emerges at a Critical Moment:
Apollo Global’s chief economist Torsten Slok warned that leverage in Treasury basis trades is swelling to risky levels. He highlighted that hundreds of billions of dollars are tied up in leveraged cash‑Treasury versus futures positions, and a sudden deleveraging could...
OD/ID Pattern Drives Strong Bond Breakouts At
Bonds: OD/ID...often a powerful breakout pattern. (ideally at the bottom or top of a swing, though). Let's see..... https://t.co/GsMqqNvTKb
Recapping - NZD Rises After CPI Beat as Markets Price Higher Odds of May RBNZ Rate Hike
New Zealand’s consumer price index rose 0.9% in the March quarter, leaving annual inflation at 3.1%—still above the Reserve Bank’s 1‑3% target. The surprise pushed the market’s implied probability of a May RBNZ rate hike to roughly 45%, up from...
ECB Stalls Rate Decision as Iran War Fuels Dual Uncertainty
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Governing Council member Álvaro Santos Pereira warned that the Iran war creates a "double uncertainty" around shock duration and inflation pass‑through. They urged a data‑driven approach, signaling likely rate‑hold at the upcoming meeting...
Fed's Waller Signals Rate Hold as Inflation and Labor Risks Loom
Fed Governor Christopher Waller told an audience in Alabama that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.5%‑3.75% range. He warned that persistent inflation and a slowing labor market make aggressive policy moves risky,...
Asian Bond Outflows Hit $7.6bn in March, South Korea Leads with $7.3bn Exit
Foreign investors sold $7.57 billion of Asian sovereign bonds in March, the largest monthly outflow since 2022. South Korea bore the brunt with a $7.25 billion net exit, as oil‑linked inflation worries sparked a regional risk‑off. The sell‑off underscores how geopolitical shocks...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for April 17, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields fell for the third week in a row, extending a short‑term downward trend. The 30‑year note slipped 0.03%, while the benchmark 10‑year yield dropped 0.05% to 4.26%. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.72% as of April 17, 2026....
CLO-Spreads-Stay-Wide-as-Uncertainty-Around-Iran-War-Persists
Two months after the Iran war began, CLO primary market spreads remain wide, especially for lower‑rated tranches. US issuance has fallen 40% and Europe 60% since the conflict, with the European market nearly halted. Reset activity has collapsed, prompting a...
Treasury Sec Paulson: US Needs Emergency "Break The Glass Plan" Ready To Deal With Dumped Treasuries & Spiking Interest Rates
Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned that the United States needs an emergency “break‑the‑glass” plan to address a possible flood of Treasury sales and rapidly rising interest rates. He linked the threat to a potential erosion of the petrodollar system...
Recent Large Taxable GO Deals Show Continued Demand
Large taxable general‑obligation bonds have re‑energized the muni market, with New York City issuing $2.25 billion and Hawaii $1.5 billion in high‑grade deals last week. The combined $4 billion‑plus weekly issuance is the strongest since March 2023, offering investment‑grade buyers liquidity and attractive credit spreads. Analysts...
China's 10‑Year Yield Slides to 1‑Month Low Near 1.75% Ahead of $2.2 Bn Hong Kong Bond Issue
China's 10‑year government bond yield dropped to roughly 1.75%, the lowest level in more than a month, reflecting market bets on continued accommodative policy from the People's Bank of China. The move comes as the central bank pledges to keep...
Some EM Debt May Be Getting More Attractive, Says Gramercy
Gramercy Capital notes that emerging‑market (EM) sovereign and corporate debt is becoming more attractive as elections in three major economies are likely to trigger structural reforms. The firm expects policy shifts to improve fiscal discipline, reduce currency volatility, and deepen...
How Municipal Financial Advisors Evolved Over Time
A new study in Public Budgeting & Finance examines how municipal financial advisors have transformed over the past two decades. The research shows advisor involvement in bond issuances climbing from roughly half of deals in 2000 to over 80% today,...
Los Angeles School Bond Outlook Dropped to Negative by Fitch, Moody's
Fitch Ratings and Moody’s have both changed the outlook for Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) to negative as the district prepares to issue roughly $1.09 billion of new bonds. While the district’s general‑obligation (GO) bonds keep a AAA rating, the...
This Unique TIPS ETF Is Earning Its Stripes
The WisdomTree Inflation Plus Fund (WTIP) is a one‑year‑old TIPS ETF that differentiates itself by blending Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities with a dynamic commodities basket and a modest 2.66% bitcoin allocation. In the wake of the Iran‑related energy price surge, the...
TIPS Bond Ladders: An Inflation Shield for Retirees
Retirees are especially vulnerable to inflation because they rely on fixed‑income streams, and traditional bond ladders can lose real value as prices rise. Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) adjust principal with the CPI, offering a direct hedge. Northern Trust’s FlexShares 2035...
Bond Yields Stagnate Amid War Costs and Supply Surge
Despite the war's fiscal costs, increased Treasury supply, and surging energy prices, bond yields are barely moving higher. We are either in denial, overly optimistic, or labor is much worse than we think. I guess be happy if you need...
Nomura, Mizuho, JSCC to Trial Tokenized Collateral on Canton Network
Nomura, Mizuho and the Japan Securities Clearing Corporation announced a proof‑of‑concept to issue tokenized collateral for Japanese government bonds on Digital Asset’s Canton Network. The initiative is part of the Financial Services Agency’s Payment Innovation Project sandbox, which is testing...
Interest Rates, Inflation, and Growth
U.S. fixed‑income markets in 2026 have been defined by sticky inflation, a modest slowdown in real GDP, and a patient Federal Reserve. The 10‑year Treasury hovered around 4.3% while the 2‑year nudged up to 3.7%, reflecting a range‑bound curve rather...
Why Rates on Ultra-Long Gov’t Bonds Hit Record Levels
Japan’s 30‑ and 40‑year government bonds surged to record yields earlier this year, breaching the 2% threshold for the first time in decades. The move coincides with the Bank of Japan’s pending decision on whether to lift the overnight policy...
HYDB: Higher Expense Ratio For More Volatility Unappealing Amid Uncertain Market Recovery
The iShares High Yield Systematic Bond ETF (HYDB) posted weaker year‑to‑date returns than its passive counterpart USHY, despite a larger tilt toward energy and value. Its expense ratio of 0.35%—more than four times USHY’s 0.08%—raises questions given the fund’s higher...
PDI: 15% Yield That Never Keeps Me Up At Night
PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI) now trades at a 15.3% dividend yield, a level driven primarily by an 8% price decline over the past six months rather than higher payouts. The drop reflects broader market pressure as long‑term Treasury yields...
ARDC: Buy This High-Yield Dynamic Credit Fund Before The Sale Ends
Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund (ARDC) is rated Buy, delivering a 10.7% yield while trading at a 7.5% discount to net asset value. The fund’s distribution is well‑covered by undistributed net investment income after a recent cut to $0.1125 per...
Credit Crunch: Saturna’s Drum on Sukuk Growth, Geopolitical Risk
In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FIC Focus, host Noel Hebert talks with Patrick Drum, fixed‑income lead at Saturna Capital, about the rapidly expanding sukuk market – the Islamic‑compliant bond universe now exceeding $1 trillion in issuance. Drum outlines the market’s...
EDP - Energias De Portugal, S.A. & EDP Finance B.V.: Credit Rating Report
On March 13, 2026, DBRS Ratings GmbH reaffirmed its issuer ratings for EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. and its finance arm, EDP Finance B.V., at BBB with a Stable trend. The confirmation places both entities in the lower medium‑grade...
Vanguard Short‑Term Bond ETFs BSV Vs. VGSH: Yield Edge Comes With More Risk
Vanguard’s short‑term bond ETFs—BSV (Short‑Term Bond) and VGSH (Short‑Term Treasury)—both charge a 0.03% expense ratio and currently yield about 3.9%. BSV posted a higher one‑year total return, but its broader mix of corporate and international dollar‑denominated bonds leads to a...
Thanks to Government Policy, Your 60/40 Portfolio May Not Cut It Under Stress
Canadian government bond yields remain low at roughly 3.4% despite mounting fiscal deficits, climate‑tax initiatives and regulatory burdens that mirror the United Kingdom’s recent policy path. In the UK, 10‑year gilt yields have risen to about 4.9%, a level that...
BOJ Likely to Keep Monetary Policy Unchanged in April - Report
Japan’s central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its April policy meeting, as uncertainty from the Middle East conflict weighs on decision‑making. Traders currently assign only about a 15% probability to an April hike, though odds climb...
Chart of the Week: April 20, 2026: Turbulent Month of March for Sustainable Taxable Bond Funds
In March 2026 sustainable taxable bond funds experienced a sharp downturn, shedding roughly $5.2 bn in net assets. Their average net return slipped 2.1%, lagging behind the 1.3% return of comparable non‑ESG bond funds. Outflows were most pronounced in Europe‑focused ESG...
The Director of the Congressional Budget Office—Known for Its Gloomy National Debt Data—Is Very Optimistic that a Crisis Will Be...
Congressional Budget Office director Phillip Swagel, known for stark debt forecasts, says a fiscal crisis can be averted. He points to the United States’ $39 trillion public debt and $1 trillion annual interest outlays but argues that resilient bond markets and the...
Three Major Japanese Financial Institutions Tap Canton to Bring Government Bonds On-Chain
Mizuho Financial Group, Nomura Holdings and Japan Securities Clearing Corporation have launched a joint proof‑of‑concept with Digital Asset’s Canton Network to manage Japanese Government Bond (JGB) collateral on‑chain. The initiative, backed by the Financial Services Agency’s Payment Innovation Project, aims...
Thailand Plans Law to Borrow B500bn and Lift Debt Ceiling
Thailand’s government is preparing an emergency decree to borrow up to 500 billion baht (approximately $13.5 billion) to address tight cash balances and rising external risks. Public debt currently sits at about 66% of GDP, close to the existing 70% ceiling, prompting...
India Bonds Set to Start Week Lower on US-Iran Uncertainty
Indian government bonds are set to open lower on Monday as oil prices rebound over 6% amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond is expected to trade between 6.88% and 6.94%, down from Friday’s 6.9049% close. A temporary...
Omkara, Oaktree Pay ₹1,200 Crore to Buy GTL Debt From Edelweiss
Omkara Asset Reconstruction Company, partnered with Oaktree Capital Management, completed an all‑cash purchase of GTL Infrastructure's distressed debt from Edelweiss ARC for roughly ₹1,200 crore (about $145 million). The debt originated from a 2018 acquisition where Edelweiss and investors took on 90%...
AMC Secures $425M Refinancing, Extends Debt Maturities
On Friday, we consummated a highly beneficial $425 million refinancing. AMC has once again taken decisive action to strengthen our financial position by extending our debt maturities by four full years, while simultaneously reducing our annual cash interest expense. I...
Canton Network Secures Major Tokenized JGB Deals
😎 "We didn't do a pre-mine, we didn't publish all these white papers. We just very quietly executed, and now we're signing all these deals. "Today we signed deals around with Mizuho and Nomura and JPX around tokenized JGBs." --...
Warsh Vows Strict Rate Independence, Reaffirms Price‑Stability Mandate
Warsh commits to being strictly independent on rates Also Warsh: price stability Fed mandate without excuse
Warsh Hearing Could Shift USTs Amid Iran War
Iran war continues to dominate price action in USTs but Warsh's confirmation hearing tomorrow will likely interrupt the current narrative for a spell especially if he sticks to his recent rate dovishness and balance sheet hawkishness.
Vanguard's NY Municipal Fund Offers Triple Tax-Free Returns
About a year ago, Vanguard launched a municipal bond fund for New York residents ticker $MUNY that is triple tax free for New York residents with a low expense ratio. Seems pretty good.