Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
Arbol and Pollen Systems, backed by Esri and Omniris, have launched a parametric insurance product that fuses AI‑driven risk models with real‑time satellite, drone and field data. The solution leverages Esri’s GIS platform to deliver location‑aware insights throughout the policy lifecycle, from underwriting to claims. By moving away from static reports, the offering promises faster, more transparent assessments and payouts for climate‑related agricultural losses. It represents the first market‑ready product that combines continuous geospatial intelligence with parametric coverage.
Bond yields pulled back toward the 4.1‑4.2% band after weak retail‑sales data, reversing a brief flirtation with the 4.30% ceiling on the 10‑year Treasury. The market is now pricing in a softer labor outlook ahead of the February non‑farm payrolls...
Regular readers know we at @Opinion had flagged BP had far more debt than the company's prefered metric (~$22 bn). Look at net debt + hybrids + leases + off-balance sheet items and it's >$50 bn. Now, BP acknowledges the issue...
Solidum Partners says global warming will structurally expand ILS spreads. As natural disaster frequency and severity increase, traditional reinsurers face capital constraints under Solvency II, limiting their capacity. ILS instruments, being event‑specific and fully collateralized, can absorb tail risk, leading investors...
TREASURY BILLS & GOVERNMENT BONDS Low-risk, government-backed securities. In Nigeria, buy FGN Savings Bonds or Treasury Bills through the CBN portal or apps like Chaka, Bamboo, or Cowrywise (minimum ₦10,000). Returns typically 12-18% annually. Other African countries offer similar products through their...
$TLT : The Average True Range (orange) is now the lowest in over 15 years. Something has to give. Might the plummeting @truflation readings be a clue to which direction a breakout might occur? https://t.co/0pEENxYpXs
VanEck’s Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBX) posted a 5.56% 30‑day yield and outperformed both its benchmark and U.S. Treasuries in January 2026, driven by strong local‑currency exposure and carry. The fund’s portfolio now holds 48% hard‑currency sovereigns, with notable additions...
IG credit spreads wider +4bps from late-Jan yet HY wider by only +2bps. Last two days have seen +2.5% equity upside that statistically should mean IG spreads -2bps. May be nothing, may be worries about supply. A "balanced" IG...
Soft retail sales, ECI flat for quarter and ADP jobs figures on the low end of expectations. Good data for the bond market, but that 15% GDP growth rate looks out of reach.
Nearly two decades after China Development Bank issued its first RMB‑denominated bond in Hong Kong, dim sum bonds have become a cornerstone of offshore liquidity. The initial issuance was modest, but it demonstrated that Chinese sovereign and policy banks could...
U.S. large caps dominated inflows last week, followed by global equities and consumer cyclicals ... high yield bonds saw most outflows, but broader fixed income universe was still positive @DataArbor https://t.co/l0soXmQF4S
How is this a healthy development? At least SIX big companies (liabilities >=$50M) have filed for bankruptcy EVERY WEEK during 3-wk period that began Jan 10, a level matched a handful of times since the turn of the century…last week alone...
U.S. Treasury yields slipped across the board for the week ending February 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate fell 0.02 percentage points, while the 10‑year yield dropped 0.04 points to 4.22 %. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.57 %, reflecting a modest broad‑based decline. These...
#Alphabet sterling bond raises a record £4.5 bn, with £24 bn in bids. They may start borrowing on behalf of Bessent if it continues like this $GOOG
The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US 10-year yield...
Private credit has trailed public credit since 2022, offering lower liquidity, weaker credit quality, higher industry concentration and higher borrower costs. By avoiding daily mark‑to‑market, private credit managers can "volatility launder" returns, presenting artificially low volatility and inflated Sharpe ratios....
Tuesday: Equity futures slightly higher, dollar weaker and treasury yields nearly unchanged. Retail sales, Employment Cost Index and Import prices out today.
Who is the world's largest holder of US Treasuries? 🥇 Japan 🥈 United Kingdom 🥉 China But here's the wildest part - if Tether were a country, it would be the 17th largest holder of US Treasuries https://t.co/JoaE6JzFI9
Overnight Treasury markets experienced a sharp, high‑volume move despite a relatively narrow price range. The volatility was triggered by news that Chinese regulators asked banks to limit their exposure to U.S. Treasuries. Domestic traders quickly digested the information, and by...
Emmanuel Macron: « Now is the time for the EU to launch a joint borrowing capacity, through eurobonds. » https://t.co/NqqbjjecXk
#Alphabet to issue 100-year GBPSterling bond after having issued 50-year $17.5 bn USD bond in November. Also plns to issue CHF bond. They're betting further currency debasement #forex
The episode dissects private‑credit defaults, arguing that most defaults are driven by borrower‑specific (idiosyncratic) factors rather than systemic risk, which the media often exaggerates for clicks. Data from the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index shows realized losses remain well below historic...
Interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB) is emerging as a top priority for banks and regulators across emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Monetary tightening and persistent macro‑volatility are making balance‑sheet exposures more fragile, exposing the limits of...
Decentralised climate platform dClimate has launched Tyche, a blockchain‑based marketplace that tokenises catastrophe reinsurance using ERC‑20 assets. The platform recorded $20 million of notional risk during last year’s hurricane season and relies on dClimate’s AI‑driven Aegis engine for real‑time pricing and...
UK bond markets reacted sharply on Monday after a series of high‑profile Downing Street resignations, with the 10‑year gilt yield climbing to 4.62% – a ten‑basis‑point surge that set a three‑month high. The departures, including communications chief Tim Allan and...
The episode examines a regional bank that has rebuilt its balance sheet, achieving profitability, capital ratios above 12%, and improved liquidity after addressing over $12 billion of higher‑risk loans. It highlights that despite these fundamentals, the bank’s subordinated floating‑rate notes are...
India’s household financial portfolio is shifting away from traditional safe assets toward equities and managed funds. Between March 2021 and March 2025, bank deposits fell from roughly 47.5% to 43.5% of total financial assets, while mutual‑fund and pension holdings rose...
The DoubleLine Weekly Market Update for the first week of February 2026 highlights a mixed equity landscape, with technology stocks delivering the strongest upside while other sectors lagged. Bond markets saw yields climb as inflation expectations solidified, prompting a modest...
MBS outperformed Treasuries on Feb 6, rising two ticks while 5‑ and 10‑year yields fell about six ticks. The move suggests possible GSE buying despite no official data. Consumer sentiment posted 57.3, beating forecasts, and inflation expectations eased to 3.5% for...
In this brief episode, J.P. Morgan analysts Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia, and Khagendra Gupta dissect the February policy meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, highlighting the limited rate‑differential (or "skinny carry") in the Eurozone and...
Friday's economic calendar was thin, with only the Consumer Sentiment report standing out. Treasury yields edged slightly higher but stayed near the 4.20% threshold, keeping bond markets largely unchanged. The previous day's disappointing labor figures have heightened market attention on...
In this episode Barbara Stewart, CFA, explores why Stockholm has become Europe’s leading capital‑raising hub, highlighting a surge in IPOs, private‑equity activity, and corporate‑bond issuance. She attributes the durability of this flow to a deep investment culture fostered by the...
The episode explains how a shift in global liquidity, driven by the Federal Reserve’s move toward quantitative tightening, is ending the era of easy money and causing risk assets like Bitcoin and high‑growth tech stocks to falter. It highlights the...
European investors hold roughly $8 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt, a quarter of the Treasury market, and recent geopolitical friction with the Trump administration has sparked talk of using those holdings as leverage. A Danish pension fund’s $100 million Treasury sell‑off highlighted...
U.S. Treasury bonds edged higher in early trading on Thursday, with gains accelerating after 7 a.m. ET. The market reacted to two labor‑market releases: the Challenger job‑cut data at 7:30 a.m. and the more impactful weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the latter...
The Financial Stability Board warned that leveraged trades in the short‑term repo market could spark fire‑sale dynamics, pressuring sovereign bond prices. It highlighted a $16 trillion global repo market, with hedge‑fund borrowing near $3 trillion—about 25% of their assets—often conducted with zero...
The episode dissects BlackRock TCPC’s recent 19% NAV drop, revealing that the loss was driven by six concentrated positions heavily weighted in second‑lien loans and equity rather than first‑lien senior debt. The host contrasts this risky capital‑structure positioning and volatile...
ADP's employment numbers released at 8:15 a.m. ET came in softer than analysts expected, yet Treasury yields barely moved. Fifteen minutes later, the Treasury Department posted its quarterly financing estimates, which were in line with prior forecasts but warned that borrowing...
The episode explores a new Longview Research Partners analysis that challenges the traditional view of bond interest and REIT dividends as portfolio positives, showing that forced investment income can erode over 1% of after‑tax wealth for high‑net‑worth investors. The hosts...
City AM’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, comprising nine independent economists, voted 7‑2 to keep the Bank of England’s base rate at 3.75%, citing persistent inflation and mixed business‑survey signals. Inflation for the year to December remains at 3.4%, above the...
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Warsh is pushing to restart quantitative tightening, signaling a shift toward shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet. This move comes even as the Fed recently expanded its holdings to ease strains in the funding market. Warsh’s...
In this episode, host Michelle Martin and guest Simon Ree, founder of Tao of Trading, dissect a volatile market landscape where gold and silver have sharply retreated after a steep rally, and Microsoft’s stock fell despite strong earnings, raising concerns...
The episode explores "peer momentum," the idea that a stock’s future returns can be better predicted by the recent performance of its connected firms—not just its own past returns. Research shows that using industry‑level peer momentum yields annualized return spreads...
Variation margin (VM) collateral, long dominated by cash, is facing pressure from higher funding costs, stricter regulations, and market stress, prompting firms to explore non‑cash alternatives. A Risk.net survey of 114 collateral specialists shows 57% of sell‑side and 33% of...
EY’s latest analysis shows 240 UK‑listed firms issued profit warnings last year, the lowest total since 2021 but the highest proportion citing policy and geopolitical uncertainty. About 42 percent of those warnings named regulatory flip‑flops, tariffs and wage hikes as profit‑dragging...
Asset‑management veteran Christopher Reider has surged to the front of the Federal Reserve chair race, positioning himself as the most suitable candidate for a fiscal‑dominant environment. Reider, a political outsider with no evident Trump connections, argues for lowering the policy...
The episode examines a high‑yield note offering over 8.5% that is backed by a company aggressively reducing its debt, positioning it for a potential rating upgrade within the next two years. It highlights how the current spread reflects genuine compensation...
Repo clearing is gaining traction as market liquidity tightens and regulators push for more transparency. LSEG’s RepoClear head Michel Semaan discussed how mandatory clearing and new haircut rules could enhance resilience while potentially shifting liquidity. Buy‑side firms, including hedge funds...
The UK’s public sector net borrowing fell 38% in December 2025, a £7.1 billion reduction from the previous month. Over the full financial year to March 2025 the government borrowed £152.6 billion, with an additional £140.4 billion borrowed between April and November 2025....
The episode examines a senior housing REIT whose current spread over the BBB index undervalues its credit quality, citing a strong net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio, ample liquidity, and improving rent coverage. It argues that the market misreads the issuer as...
