Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
Construction spending for October rose modestly, with total nominal spending up 0.5% and residential construction up 1.3%. After adjusting for a 0.2% decline in material prices, real overall spending increased 0.7% and residential spending 1.5%, pushing both series close to ten‑month nominal highs and a nine‑month real high for residential work. The data, though stale, adds to a thin set of indicators suggesting the emergence of “green shoots” in the housing market following three‑year low mortgage rates.
In this episode, Larry Swedroe discusses a new study by Jihoon Goh, Suk‑Joon Byun, and Donghoon Kim that uncovers how the “salience effect”—investors’ attraction to stocks with dramatic past moves—interacts with the “break‑even bias,” a tendency to take riskier bets...
The episode examines the fallout from escalating tariff disputes between the United States and Europe, which have prompted investors to sell U.S. assets and trigger a sell‑off in global markets. It highlights Japan’s bond market stress as yields climb to...
The President is expected to announce his Fed Chairman pick this week, with former governor Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading contender. Warsh, a noted hawk, aligns his policy outlook with Treasury Secretary Bessent. He is best known for a...
Seeking Alpha’s weekly indicators for Jan 12‑16 highlight a normalizing yield curve and mortgage rates at three‑year lows, which are reviving the housing market. At the same time, gasoline prices have slipped to their lowest level in almost five years, creating...
Industrial production reached a new post‑pandemic high in December, climbing 0.4% after revisions added another 0.2% to prior months. The modest 0.2% rise in manufacturing was dwarfed by a 2.6% jump in utility output, which also posted a 2.3% year‑over‑year...
The episode breaks down Block, Inc.'s latest credit outlook, highlighting a dramatic shift from a shaky to a durable balance sheet and a clear path to achieving the Rule of 40 by 2026. Q3 2025 results show 18% YoY gross...
In this brief episode of "5 in 5 with ANZ," host Bernard Hickey highlights how recent central bank interventions have bolstered the Japanese yen amid broader market volatility. He notes that while banking stress persists in the US and Europe,...
The U.S. dollar is in a consolidating phase, hovering around JPY158.6 after a brief push toward JPY159.5, as Japanese authorities intensify verbal warnings of possible market intervention. In North America, traders await U.S. PPI, retail sales data and comments from...
The episode dissects Molson Coors' looming $2.4 billion refinancing challenge amid a sharp operational downturn, highlighted by an 11.9% drop in pretax income, a $3.6 billion goodwill impairment, and rising net leverage to 2.28x. Volume shrinkage—especially in the economy and flavored‑alcohol segments—combined...
The administration is signaling a willingness to enlist government‑sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in its effort to push mortgage rates lower. After the 2008 crisis, the GSEs’ mortgage holdings shrank dramatically, but policymakers see an...
