Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen‑funded carry trade, raising bond market risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has made the yen the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that a sudden, aggressive tightening could compress spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Brazilian energy giant Raízen SA is seeking to restructure roughly $12.6 billion of debt out of court. Major European and Latin American banks—BNP Paribas, Banco Bradesco and Rabobank—have been identified as some of the company’s largest creditors. The restructuring plan is expected to extend loan maturities, lower interest burdens, and may involve covenant tightening or equity participation. The move comes as Raízen navigates volatile commodity prices and Brazil’s tightening credit environment.
Bond market volatility spiked on Wednesday after three cargo vessels were struck near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing 10‑year U.S. Treasury yields from just above 4.14% to near 4.20%. The attacks revive concerns over oil‑supply disruptions, keeping Brent crude roughly...
In this episode of Credit Crunch, Mahesh Bhimalingam and guest Sarah Harrison discuss the impact of the Iran war and recent software sector volatility on global credit markets. They note that despite geopolitical tensions, credit spreads have remained relatively resilient,...
The AI poster child is issuing $25B in debt to buy back its own stock. Not to invest in AI. Not to acquire capabilities. To support the share price. That's the strategy. $CRM
Tplex: Rate complex under pressure UST 10 Yr Notes 4.20% +6.5bp's Dimes 112-00+ down 14/32's
Bloomberg’s Rule Builder (RBLD) lets buy‑side firms convert high‑quality pre‑trade data into automated routing and alerting rules for fixed‑income orders. The tool ingests pricing, axes, dealer performance and other signals to prioritize dealers and reduce market impact. A Bloomberg study...
You get a different result from the CME tool (derived from a simple probability-weighted average) if you use options prices in the Atlanta Fed's tracker As of Friday, options prices implied a rate hike had risen to around 23%, from 8%...
fun fact: the @bankofcanada has decreased rates 7 times since September 4th, 2024... both Canada 5-year and 10-year yields are higher since they started... #oops
Cook County's transition to a new property‑tax software delayed bill issuance and collections, compressing cash flow for local governments. The delay forced East Dundee & Countryside Fire Protection District to miss its Jan 15 principal and interest payment on its 2021...
$TLT Monthly. Treasuries have gone down in virtual straight line (and rates up) since initial launch on Iran two Fridays ago. Long-term still strongly bearish. Risk of wipeout https://t.co/0SPsw7B88t
10-year yield pulled back from 4.21% to 4.11%. Not because the economy is fine. Because oil retreated and gave the bond market a breath. One headline away from 4.25%. https://t.co/62rQysSFLG
SiriusXM completed a two‑step refinancing that fully retired its $1 billion of 3.125% senior notes due 2026. The tender offer attracted only $498.9 million, leaving $501.1 million of bonds unredeemed. To satisfy those holders, the company deposited U.S. Treasuries with a trustee, effectively...
Generally, this has been good value for UST 2s. Chart of yield less funding rate (SOFR) https://t.co/jPLWuxmxaW
Want to know where bond returns are headed? Just look at today’s yield. Over the last 50 years, the correlation between starting yields and forward 7-year returns is 97%. Higher yields = higher future returns. Lower yields = lower future returns. Bond investing is just...
Adani Transmission Step‑One Limited, a wholly‑owned arm of Adani Energy Solutions, secured a $500 million dollar‑denominated bond from Apollo Global Management. The proceeds will be used to refinance an equal‑amount of 2016 senior secured bonds that mature in August. Moody’s reaffirmed...
Oddly USTs under pressure ahead of what is expected to be a soft Feb CPI (0.2 core) print. Supply seems to be part of it. Yesterday's 11-deal IG issuance ($66B) was the biggest single session on record.
Good Morning from Germany, where today’s 10y govt bond auction technically failed. Of the €5bn on offer, investors submitted bids for only €4.5bn. In the end, just €3.8bn was placed, at a yield of 2.89%; noticeably higher than the 2.73%...
VanEck’s Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBX) trimmed Gulf exposure as Iran‑related tensions heightened, yet bond prices in the region stayed flat, creating a weak risk‑reward profile. The fund now leans toward commodity‑exporting issuers in Latin America and Sub‑Saharan Africa, which...
The National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC) announced that the CUSIP 127190AG1, representing CACI International Inc.'s senior notes issued under a 144A exemption, has been deleted. The notes were originally slated to settle on March 12, 2026, but the underwriter has...
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Auction rate securities (ARS) are long‑term debt instruments whose interest rates are reset through frequent Dutch‑auction processes, typically every 7 to 35 days. Before the 2008 market failure, investors had placed roughly $330 billion in ARS, attracted by tax‑exempt, investment‑grade yields....
The AFME seminar in London underscored that resilient borrowers and chronic housing shortages are reshaping the EU mortgage market. Even as central banks keep rates elevated, default rates remain low, bolstering strong performance of UK residential mortgage‑backed securities (RMBS). Refinancing...
Singapore‑based Princeton Digital Group, backed by Warburg Pincus, announced plans to raise up to $5 billion in debt this year. The proceeds will finance a multi‑country AI data‑center build‑out in India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Japan. PDG already operates AI‑focused facilities in seven...
Amazon became the latest investment‑grade borrower to tap the bond market, issuing a tranche that ranks as the fourth‑largest IG bond sale ever to fund its data‑center expansion. The deal adds several billion dollars of capital at a competitive yield,...
Bond fund inflows surged to $5.8 billion in early March as investors fled heightened Middle‑East tensions and the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Short‑term Treasury ETFs led the rush, with iShares SGOV pulling in $2.27 billion, while international and emerging‑market debt...
Macro: leveraged basis/swap trades in USTs unwind as repo stress. Drivers: regulation, supply surge, margin calls. Risk: disorderly USTs and deleveraging. Trade: reduce duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Municipal bond markets held steady on Tuesday despite weaker U.S. Treasury yields and mixed equity performance. Muni‑UST ratios stayed near 60% for short maturities and rose to about 90% for the 30‑year, indicating solid relative pricing. Analysts warn that higher...
In this episode, Serena Tang explains how a surge in oil prices could undermine the traditional negative correlation between stocks and bonds that investors rely on for diversification. She outlines how the pandemic-era co‑sell‑off of equities and bonds was driven...
Salesforce $CRM is reportedly planning to sell as much as $25 billion worth of debt in order to fund its share buyback plan - Bloomberg
$HYG hasn't cracked yet. Credit spreads are tight while equities chop and oil spikes. High yield is either the smartest market in the room or the last one to figure it out. https://t.co/v5eGL2YwEZ
Amplify ETFs launched the Amplify Municipal CEF High Income ETF (YYYM) on March 10, offering a fund‑of‑funds structure that aggregates 30 U.S. municipal bond closed‑end funds. The ETF tracks the Nasdaq Municipal Bond CEF High Income™ Index, emphasizing high yield, NAV...
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged up to about 4.11% on Tuesday, remaining below the 200‑day moving average of 4.20%. The modest rise came as oil prices fluctuated around the $100 per barrel mark, tempering inflation concerns. Investors noted that the...
The PGIM AAA CLO ETF (PAAA) delivers roughly a 5% yield while maintaining an ultra‑low duration of about 0.1 years, positioning it as a cash‑like anchor. It invests exclusively in senior AAA‑rated CLO tranches, offering strong credit protection during market...
PIMCO’s Dynamic Income Opportunities Fund (PDO) received a buy rating upgrade, highlighting its ability to navigate volatile high‑yield markets. The fund’s long‑duration asset mix delivers stable cash flows while rates fluctuate. Analyst Cain Lee recommends a 25% reduction in distributions...
Fayetteville voters approved a $335.5 million municipal bond, keeping a 1 % special sales tax in place to service the debt. The package earmarks funds for water, sewer, parks, animal services, pedestrian infrastructure, recycling, fire‑safety projects, and allocates $61.9 million to build an...
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.'s common equity has slumped sharply, yet its OXLCI baby bonds remain resilient. The bonds carry an 8.75% coupon, delivering a yield‑to‑maturity near 8%, and are backed by coverage ratios above 340%, far exceeding the 300% regulatory...
Amazon filed a preliminary prospectus to raise between $37 billion and $42 billion in a mixed‑currency bond offering, the largest since its $15 billion sale in November. The proceeds are earmarked for Amazon’s aggressive AI push, including massive data‑center construction and a recently...
Recent market episodes, including the US‑Iran war and the 2022 rally, showed stocks and Treasuries moving together, challenging the notion that Treasuries act as a safe haven in bear markets. Bloomberg’s analysis of data back to 1926 finds near‑zero correlation...
Ed Perks, a 40‑year veteran of Franklin Templeton, serves as CIO of Franklin Income Investors and president of its advisory arm. He credits early cross‑asset roles—from equity research to convertible securities—in shaping a disciplined, risk‑focused income philosophy. Perks emphasizes evaluating...
UBS Asset Management has listed the UBS BBG MSCI Global Liquid Corp Sustainable UCITS ETF on the London Stock Exchange. The fund tracks the Bloomberg MSCI Global Liquid Corporates Sustainable Bond Index, which excludes the lowest‑rated 20% of securities on...
The SEC’s upcoming Treasury clearing mandate is set to make central clearing mandatory for U.S. Treasury securities, prompting firms to re‑engineer trading, risk, and operational frameworks. The Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC) is responding with seven new initiatives, including expanded...
U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the board for the week ending March 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate rose 0.13 percentage points, while the 10‑year advanced 0.18 points to 4.15 %. The 3‑year note settled at 3.59 %, reflecting broader upward pressure on government debt yields....
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
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Flexential is pursuing a $1.4 billion asset‑backed securities (ABS) issuance. The notes, structured in two series across four classes, will be secured by its 28 data‑center sites spanning 14 markets and roughly 1.8 million sq ft of floor space. Proceeds will cover closing costs...
10-year yield at 4.15%. Up 18 bps in a week. Bonds selling off into a growth scare. That's not supposed to happen. When Treasuries stop being a safe haven, the playbook is broken. https://t.co/yIChc2y0aR
Curve shape (white) was completely uncorrelated with level of rates through first week of Iran conflict. That trend changed overnight when 10s peaked ~4.20%. Since then, have seen notable flattening. 1/ https://t.co/zHYcDKsXG6
Mayo Clinic announced a $750 million bond issuance slated for early to mid‑April, comprising a blend of 30‑year notes and intermediate‑term debt ranging from seven to 15 years. The proceeds will finance the nonprofit’s expansive "Bold. Forward. Unbound." capital program, which...
IS THE CREDIT BUBBLE HERE? Record Corporate Debt Explained | Trading Zone Ep. 94 https://t.co/saPNeSSafk
IS THE CREDIT BUBBLE HERE? Record Corporate Debt Explained | Trading Zone Ep. 94 https://t.co/22SJSkFetj
LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - Bonds across the globe sank on Monday as a rapidly worsening U.S.-Israeli war with Iran briefly pushed oil prices near $120, heightening investor fears over inflation which they bet may prompt European central banks to...
