Know What's Happening in Bonds
Know What's Happening in Bonds
China accelerates sell‑off of U.S. Treasury bills, shedding $50 bn
China has cut its U.S. Treasury bill holdings from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn in March 2026, a $50 bn decline that brings the portfolio to its lowest level since 2008. The accelerated sell‑off follows larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing directing commercial banks to liquidate between $70 bn and $200 bn of T‑bills.
Spanish Broadcasting System (SBS) missed its March 1 deadline on $310 million senior secured notes and entered a 30‑day creditor standstill. Majority holders of the 9.750 % notes have agreed to forbear while negotiations explore new financing, term extensions or restructuring. SBS reported a Q2 revenue drop to $34.44 million and a net loss of $4.44 million, but Q3 cost reductions and a $2.83 million gain from the Mega TV sale lifted net income to $1.39 million. The forbearance comes amid widening debt stress in U.S. radio, highlighted by Cumulus’ Chapter 11 filing and Beasley’s payment grace period.
The oil-price shock is taking a bigger toll on European markets, particularly in fixed income, making the ECB's meeting this week arguably more interesting than the Fed's. Yields on French 10-year bonds are back up to the highest since 2011....
Morningstar DBRS released its latest "Covered Bond Markets at a Glance" report focusing on Austria. The report highlights a €110 billion outstanding covered‑bond portfolio, placing Austria among the world’s top ten markets. Mortgage‑backed programmes dominate, with residential loans outpacing commercial, while...
Senegal’s public debt has surged to roughly 132% of GDP, with annual servicing costs of about $9.1 billion. Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko has dismissed debt restructuring, opting instead to close 19 government agencies to save roughly $98 million over three years. The...
Citadel Finance LLC issued $1 billion of 5.9% senior notes due 2030, closing February 10, 2025, underwritten by Goldman Sachs with BNY Mellon as paying agent. The Depository Trust Company issued a Section 3(c)(7) notice requiring all purchases and transfers to occur...
KeyBank National Association has been added as a new participant (ID 9405) in the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation’s Government Securities Division netting system, effective March 19, 2026. The change applies to Netting (Buy/Sell), Repo Netting, and the Government Central Fund...
Central banks worldwide hold rates steady this week as they watch oil prices and Middle East tensions. The Fed's Powell leads his second-to-last FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/d9xKHu64X9
China’s 30‑year government bond yields climbed to 2.4%, the highest closing level since September 2024, as oil prices surged amid the Iran‑Israel conflict. The 10‑year benchmark also edged higher to 1.83%, reflecting broader inflation concerns. Futures on the 30‑year bond fell...
Kevin Muir, known as “the macro tourist,” announced a sizable short position against corporate credit spreads, buying distressed pink‑ticket bonds as a hedge. He argues that rising interest rates, slowing global growth, and tightening credit conditions will force high‑yield spreads...
In a recent Project Syndicate interview, economist Desmond Lachman warns that President Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy could revive bond‑market vigilantes and destabilize the U.S. Treasury market. He argues that such stress may puncture the soaring AI‑related equity rally and...
GCC dollar‑denominated bond and sukuk issuances have plunged since the Iran war erupted, despite the region’s strong credit fundamentals earlier in 2026. The GCC still represents roughly 40% of all emerging‑market dollar issuance this year, with outstanding DCM at $1.2 trillion....
The Philippines’ debt service bill surged to P2.1 trillion in 2025, a 4 percent increase over the previous year and 2.44 percent above the government’s P2.05‑trillion target. Interest payments jumped 11.8 percent to P854.1 billion, representing 19.4 percent of total revenues and 14.3 percent of expenditures. Domestic...
Northern Funds’ Multi‑Manager Emerging Markets Debt Opportunity Fund matched its blended benchmark in Q4 2025, delivering an 8.63% return versus 8.62% for the index. The fund’s outperformance stemmed from a zero‑weight position in Egypt’s local‑currency debt and overweight exposure to sovereign...
The article spotlights five high‑yield closed‑end funds—BIT, BME, BST, BUI and GLU—that have never reduced their distributions in at least ten years, making them attractive for income‑focused retirees. BIT offers nearly 12% yield but shows weakening earnings coverage and rising...
War‑driven uncertainty in Europe and the Middle East has pushed the 10‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) real yield to its highest level in a decade, setting the stage for this week’s Treasury auction. The surge reflects heightened inflation expectations and...
‼️Global debt CRISIS is reaching INSANE levels: World debt SPIKED +$29 trillion in 2025, to $348 trillion, the highest EVER. This was the 2nd LARGEST annual increase in HISTORY. Global government debt hit a record $107 trillion.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20-a312
Short end bond curve (OUS) reaction to the energy shock, and the MASSIVE market complacency. https://t.co/FPG8npWCCQ
JPMorgan Chase is preparing to place more than $30 billion of leveraged‑finance debt for upcoming buyouts, including Electronic Arts, Sealed Air and a pending Qualtrics transaction. The bank’s effort follows CEO Jamie Dimon’s warnings that the credit cycle could turn sour,...
Treasury Yields Jump, 10-Year to 4.28%, 30-Year to 4.90%, Mortgage Rates Spike to 6.41%, on Inflation & Deficit Fears. US Government sold $651 billion of Treasury securities this week into these rising yields https://t.co/PBjZjAGHme https://t.co/VXWtZ8bNKw
Credit spreads are starting to move. Junk bond yields just hit a 3-month high at 7.34%, while high-yield spreads are trending higher in early 2026. That’s usually the first crack. Credit weakens → liquidity tightens → risk assets feel it next. Still early. Time...
Brazilian corporations have re‑entered the spotlight as two major firms announced out‑of‑court restructurings covering roughly $13.5 billion of debt. The moves, reported by Bloomberg’s The Brink, signal a shift from judicial to market‑driven solutions amid Brazil’s lingering economic slowdown. Investment banks...
The biggest issue the US is dealing with right now isn’t Iran — it’s the cost of its own debt. Plain and simple: The government can’t afford a war at this stage, and higher interest rates are becoming an existential threat. https://t.co/mHVMQJMS82 https://t.co/yW1dmgDC7i
$TLT - In just 2 weeks it's back to the February low due to the Iran war. If it beaks the February low(86.43) we will likely see a retest of the 2025 low and maybe even the 2023 low. https://t.co/Mm9e0lX2JM
An A+ rated corporate bond is trading 50 basis points wider than its credit rating suggests, reflecting a rare disconnect between market perception and fundamentals. The issuer’s balance sheet shows liquid assets exceeding total debt, and fee‑related earnings cover interest...
"Inflation isn't a problem at all." Ten Year Treasury Yield: "Hold my beer." 🍺 One of the biggest shifts from February to March? $TNX bounced of support at 4.0% as rates move higher as prices appear to be 📈. https://t.co/Y10UC0y7lL
Gold selling off with stocks is necessary now for Treasuries to return. And this is playing out exactly as I argued it would. Phase 1 of the reverse carry trade.
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75% at the March 2026 meeting, postponing any hike until at least April. Market participants cite heightened volatility from the Iran‑Israel conflict and surging energy prices as key...
European bank credit default swap (CDS) spreads rose as risk‑off sentiment intensified amid the ongoing Middle East war, according to Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. The iTraxx Europe Senior Financial index climbed 2 basis points to 69 bps, while the sub‑financials index...
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Norway’s long‑term sovereign ratings at AAA for both foreign and local currency on March 13, 2026, while its short‑term ratings were affirmed at R‑1 (high). All four ratings retained a stable trend, indicating no change in outlook....
Morningstar DBRS reaffirmed Ireland’s long‑term sovereign rating at AA with a stable outlook, and its short‑term rating at R‑1 (high). The agency highlighted a 4.9% rise in real modified domestic demand and a 12.3% surge in real GDP in 2025,...
U.S. publicly held debt has ballooned to roughly the size of the nation’s GDP and is set to surpass the post‑World War II record as baby‑boomers retire and entitlement spending climbs. Yale Budget Lab’s Martha Gimbel warned that investors currently accept...
U.S. Treasury markets experienced a sharp front‑end rally this week, with two‑year yields climbing roughly 20 basis points while ten‑year yields added about 12 basis points. The differential move produced a bear‑flattened curve, indicating heightened short‑term rate pressure. Market participants...
S&P Global Ratings lifted Mississippi’s general‑obligation bond outlook to stable from negative and reaffirmed its AA rating, citing structurally balanced budgets and healthier reserves. The state posted an 8% revenue surplus in fiscal 2025 and its cash‑stabilization reserve reached $667 million,...
Morningstar DBRS has issued provisional credit ratings for the residential mortgage‑backed securities of Braccan Mortgage Funding 2026‑1. The senior Class A tranche received a (P) AAA rating, Class B a (P) AA rating, while lower tranches were rated (P) A, (P) BBB‑high and (P) BBB‑low respectively. All ratings...
FIGRE Trust is launching the 2026‑HF3 securitization, selling $335.7 million of revolving home‑equity lines of credit (HELOC) in eight SOFR‑linked tranches. The A1A tranche holds $164.3 million and receives a 44.5% credit‑enhancement cushion, while lower tranches have progressively smaller enhancements. The underlying...
Eutelsat announced the completion of its €5 billion financing plan by closing a €1.5 billion senior note issuance, the final step of a multi‑year equity and debt strategy. The proceeds will fund the deployment of OneWeb’s low‑Earth‑orbit satellites and support Europe’s IRIS²...
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
tonight at your cocktail 🍸 party when someone says that interest rates are coming down and the central bank has you covered, tell them the @bankofcanada has dropped rates 7 times since Sep/24 and 5 & 10 yields are higher...
The episode examines how the Middle East war is reshaping capital markets, highlighting a shift in euro‑denominated bond issuance: banks have paused their euro funding while corporate issuers, notably Amazon, are stepping in with record‑breaking deals. Amazon raised €14.5 billion across...
Investment-grade bonds just broke down from a 3-year support. These are early signs of stress in the bond market. Keep in mind that junk bonds are also trading well below their 200-day moving average now. Latest presentation: https://t.co/gDlMFjFGml https://t.co/UUDCngoUN8
I went over this with clients already: rate volatility is just starting… “If 80 then 100” is what I said about MOVE and it’s got lots of room to move higher. Higher oil = higher yields
Harvest Investment Services added 319,467 shares of the First Trust Low Duration Opportunities ETF, valued at about $16 million, raising its stake to roughly 7 % of the manager’s reported AUM. The ETF, LMBS, manages about $6 billion, offers a 4 % yield and...
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
Public‑private partnership advocates are urging the IRS to scrap the defeasance rule that forces tax‑exempt bonds to be retired when a government leases an asset to a private operator. They argue the regulation inflates financing costs and discourages asset‑recycling deals...
Oklahoma’s sovereign credit rating was raised by Fitch to AA‑plus with a stable outlook, marking the state’s third upgrade since 2024 after similar moves by S&P and Moody’s. The agency cited sustained fiscal discipline, robust operating reserves and low long‑term...
The article critiques the notion that municipal governments can substantially expand fiscal space by having local public banks purchase their own bonds. It argues that a new bank must first raise equity, limiting its initial balance sheet, and that banks...
👇Looking for the catalyst? And it was already a fragile economic environment before the recent spike in energy costs (which will compound these dynamics below) And well said @wesbury …
Norwegian municipal authority Farsund kommune has submitted an application to list its bonds on the Euronext Oslo Børs, receiving ISIN NO0013738286. The listing will bring the bonds under the EU Market Abuse Regulation, imposing immediate disclosure obligations on the issuer....
The Reserve Bank of India purchased a record 572.10 billion rupees (about $6.2 billion) of government bonds in the week ending 6 March, marking its third straight week of net buying. The purchases are part of a broader liquidity infusion strategy aimed at...
In today's Early Look: "#Quad3 Bond Yield Breakout" The Signaling Process that I built changed. I changed with it. When lightning hits the golf course, do you want to debate last Tuesday's forecast — or get off the fairway? https://t.co/pZVQzeHQXQ
