New-Crop Soybean Oil Export Projection Suggests Greater Price Volatility
The USDA’s May 12 WASDE for 2026/27 shows U.S. soybean stocks at 310 million bushels, 40 million below analyst forecasts, as domestic crushing outpaces export growth. Soybean‑oil exports are projected at just 400 million pounds, the second‑lowest level on record, meaning almost all oil will stay in the United States for biomass‑based diesel. The report notes a 12% rise in domestic crush and a 35% increase in oil production since 2020, while export demand, traditionally price‑elastic, is vanishing. These dynamics suggest tighter domestic markets and heightened price volatility.
Morgan Stanley Maps Four Oil Shock Scenarios From Fed Hikes to Global Recession
Morgan Stanley outlined four alternative macroeconomic scenarios surrounding its base case of a gradual Iran de‑escalation, a brief inflation spike and a patient Federal Reserve. Scenario 1 predicts a 100‑basis‑point Fed hike in 2027 as the oil shock fades, while Scenario 2...
Daily Energy Report
China’s crude oil imports plunged by more than 2.6 million barrels per day in March and April 2026, marking the lowest import levels in seven years. The drop coincided with a sharp price rise and the Hormuz Strait crisis, which constrained...
Free Webinar: Fertiliser, Fuel and Grain Markets.
Judo Bank and Episode3 are hosting a free webinar to dissect the forces reshaping Australian agriculture in 2026. The session will examine how global conflict, volatile energy prices, fertilizer supply constraints, and shifting grain fundamentals are creating unprecedented uncertainty for...
Interview with Asharq Bloomberg TV Dubai 11.05.2026
In a recent Asharq Bloomberg TV interview, The Macro Butler warned that oil prices appear deceptively calm while the physical market is under strain. He highlighted that global oil inventories have slipped into operational stress territory. A prolonged "geopolitical maintenance"...
Despite Politicized Disinformation, Midwest AI Data Centers Are Fueling a Solar Energy Boom
Midwest AI data centers are dramatically increasing regional electricity demand, prompting a rapid expansion of solar installations. Farmers and landowners are signing solar leases to secure steady income as tariffs hurt traditional crop markets. Fossil‑fuel interests are financing disinformation campaigns...
Why the Oil Price Is Stable
Morgan Stanley’s latest charts show crude oil prices holding steady despite ongoing geopolitical tension. The market entered the conflict with sizable inventory buffers and continues to price in a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to the equilibrium,...
Daily Energy Report
India’s strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) are being drawn down faster, causing a noticeable dip in the country’s crude oil inventories. Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to curb fuel use amid a Hormuz‑driven global price surge, framing the call as...
Why June Is the Oil Market’s Point of No Return
The U.S.-Iran conflict has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 14.5 million barrels per day of Middle‑East crude and driving global oil inventories down at a record 11‑12 million barrels daily. JP Morgan warns that only 800 million barrels of the 8.4 billion‑barrel...
Real Gasoline Prices Are (Relatively) Low; Gas Prices Are Rising Sharply
Real gasoline prices are low in inflation‑adjusted terms, yet they have surged sharply, rising about 23% from February to April 2024. This jump exceeds the month‑on‑month growth seen after the 2022 Russian‑invasion price spike and the pre‑Great Recession surge. Retail...
The Permian Pipeline Buildout Reaches Critical Mass
Natural gas production in the Permian Basin has doubled since 2018, reaching 25.4 billion cubic feet per day and representing 22% of U.S. marketed gas. Takeaway capacity has lagged, driving deep discounts at the Waha hub and occasional negative pricing. Three...
Aramco CEO’s Bombshell Warning Exposes the Fragile State of Global Energy Markets
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned on the first‑quarter earnings call that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly one billion barrels of oil from the market and could keep global supplies tight for years. He said...
Silver Prices Becomes Increasingly Volatile To The Upside - Production Impaired Globally
Silver prices have surged with pronounced volatility over the past week, reflecting growing market tension. Analysts link the rally to a looming supply crunch as sulfuric acid shortages disrupt copper and other base‑metal mines that generate roughly a quarter of...
4 Big Energy Stories - 5.11.2026: Stop This Madness, Please
Oil prices jumped on Monday after President Donald Trump labeled Iran’s latest peace‑proposal response unacceptable, reigniting supply concerns as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. Brent crude rose $2.70 to $103.99 a barrel and U.S. WTI climbed $2.24 to...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Futures opened the week on headline‑driven volatility as a rejected Middle East peace proposal redirected risk‑averse capital into energy, indirectly supporting agricultural contracts. Energy flow through the straits remains uncertain, keeping markets skeptical of any war‑related commentary. Meanwhile, the upcoming...
Presentation on Recent Trends in Electricity Markets
The author presented a three‑part analysis of European electricity markets, focusing first on the rapid expansion of solar generation and battery storage. The second segment examined how these renewables are reshaping day‑ahead market pricing, pushing prices lower and altering the...
Gold Daily Call for May 11th, 2026
Gold opened on May 11, 2026 with a gap down and is now testing support around $4,650‑$4,660 per ounce. The 4‑hour stochastic indicator is edging into oversold territory, suggesting a possible short‑term bounce toward the 50‑day moving average rather than...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 11 May 2026
On May 11, 2026 Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) released its official buying prices for gold in Zimbabwe, detailing rates by purity and transaction size. The top tier (90% + purity) commands $139.79 per gram ($4,347.65 per ounce), while the fire‑assay cash...
A History of OPEC: Why Its Crisis Is Bad News
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC on May 1, arguing that the cartel’s production quotas limit its roughly 5 million barrels‑per‑day capacity. The move marks the first exit of a major producer since OPEC’s founding and underscores a shift...
Daily Energy Report
Global gasoline exports have plunged after the Strait of Hormuz was shut, eliminating roughly 120,000 barrels per day that previously flowed through the chokepoint. The abrupt loss sparked localized shortages and nudged retail prices higher, although the overall gasoline market...
Friday Footnotes: A Rundown of the Week that Was
Midweek, corn, soybeans and wheat prices fell after reports suggested a possible peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is seeing a clash between bearish fundamental traders, who worry about tighter global grain supplies, and...
Clean Energy’s Nickel Rush Is Heading Straight for some of Earth’s Richest Ecosystems – by University of Queensland (Phys.org –...
An international study led by University of Queensland researcher Jayden Hyman warns that meeting the surging demand for nickel—driven by stainless steel and clean‑energy technologies—will likely draw heavily on ecologically sensitive regions. By 2050, roughly half of the world’s mined...
Op-Ed: The Copper Supply Crisis Is a Sulfur Management Crisis – by Randy Allen (Mining.com – May 4, 2026)
China abruptly halted sulfuric acid exports on May 1, 2026, sending shockwaves through commodity markets. The move exposed a hidden bottleneck: sulfuric acid is essential for copper leaching, yet the mining sector has treated it as a waste byproduct. With global...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Overnight grain futures saw notable consolidation, setting a tighter market tone for the session. Volatility has characterized this week’s trade, and traders are positioning ahead of the May WASDE report, which will reveal the first new‑crop balance sheets of the...
What the UAE’s OPEC Exit Means for the Global Energy Market
The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC, effective May 1, ending a five‑decade affiliation. The move reflects a decade‑long strategic pivot toward economic diversification and reduced reliance on hydrocarbon revenues. Abu Dhabi’s broader vision includes expanding non‑energy sectors and...
Is the Silver Bull Back?
Silver futures on the COMEX experienced a rapid 13.7% rally this week, climbing from $72.21 to $82.12. At the same time, open interest fell to levels not seen in decades, signaling a near‑absence of speculative buyers. The combination of soaring...
The Wrap: AI and Metals Surge, Dollar Gyrates and Private Credit Sinks
Gold prices jumped nearly 3% in five days while silver outperformed, driven by supply bottlenecks in India and broader Asian markets. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet rebounded to roughly $6.65 trillion, adding $42 billion of Treasury bills in February, signaling renewed reserve...
Prices of Used EVs Spike, From Already Lofty Levels, as Gasoline Prices Spike. But Electricity Prices Also Soared
U.S. gasoline prices have surged 57% to $4.58 per gallon, prompting a rebound in demand for used electric vehicles. At auction, wholesale prices for used EVs climbed 3.4% in April to $29,453, marking a 7.8% year‑over‑year increase and widening the...
Morgan Stanley Sees Gold at $5,200 (Central Bank Buys, Fed Cuts), Fear Trade Is Now Dead
Morgan Stanley projects gold to reach $5,200 per ounce by year‑end, driven by renewed ETF and central‑bank buying and anticipated Federal Reserve cuts in early 2027. The bank notes gold has fallen 14.5% since the Iran conflict, underperforming both the...
Mining Alpha with Michael Gentile – Junior Miners Repriced as M&A Sets New Gold Benchmarks
Two landmark acquisitions have reset pricing benchmarks for junior gold miners. G Mining Ventures acquired G2 Goldfields for roughly $600 per ounce, while Agnico Eagle purchased Rupert Resources at $500‑600 per ounce, each representing about a 70% premium to current...
The Closer – Fertilizer, Stable Sentiment, Expectations Up – 5/7/26
Fertilizer prices are beginning to moderate after a wave of strong first‑quarter earnings from leading producers. The sector’s earnings beat expectations, with many companies reporting double‑digit revenue growth. Meanwhile, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows one‑year inflation...
California Has Four to Six Weeks of Gasoline Left
The California Energy Commission reported that the state’s gasoline and diesel inventories are sufficient for four to six weeks of normal consumption. The data comes as the final tanker of crude oil from the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran shut...
AMERICA'S BIGGEST EXPORT IS NOW GOLD FOR 5 STRIAGHT MONTHS: The Record Bullion Drain to China, the 1971 Parallel, and...
U.S. gold has become the nation’s top export for five straight months, outpacing oil, pharmaceuticals and aerospace. The bulk of the bullion is routed through Swiss refineries and ends up in Chinese vaults, reflecting Beijing’s push for hard assets in...
Gold Daily Call for May 7th, 2026
Gold is rallying toward the $4,800 per ounce mark, nudging just above its 50‑day moving average of $4,799. The 4‑hour stochastic oscillator signals an overbought condition, suggesting momentum may be peaking. Traders are advised to let existing long positions run...
![[COPY] Does the Market Need OPEC/OPEC+?](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!U0yT!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff871be01-f761-4d21-9cd5-ffe117586429_188x188.png)
[COPY] Does the Market Need OPEC/OPEC+?
The article questions OPEC’s relevance after the United Arab Emirates left the cartel, arguing that OPEC’s governance differs from classic commodity cartels. It highlights the oil sector’s capital‑intensive nature, where sunk costs dominate and operating expenses are low. During prolonged...
U.S. Electricity Prices Keep Rising
U.S. electricity prices climbed 6.7% year‑over‑year in April 2026, with the 12‑month trailing average up 6.5% and regional spikes of 21%‑25% in New Jersey and Washington, D.C. The rise mirrors a five‑year trend driven largely by natural‑gas fuel costs. Meanwhile, political opposition...
THE SUPPLY SIDE OF GOLD IS BROKEN: 15 Years of Flat Production, the Historic Discovery Drought, the M&A Illusion &...
Gold’s supply side has stalled for 15 years, with annual mine output essentially flat despite prices soaring from under $1,000 to over $4,500 per ounce. The industry recorded zero major discoveries (2 million‑plus ounces) in both 2023 and 2024, a historic...
Electricity Prices Went Up In April — But Not Because of Iran
Electricity prices in the United States rose 6.7% in April 2026 compared with the same month a year earlier, and the 12‑month trailing average climbed 6.5%. The increase follows a five‑year pattern of steady growth driven chiefly by natural‑gas fuel...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Global markets opened largely red, mirroring yesterday's sell‑off, though losses were milder. Soy meal was the sole commodity posting gains, while futures rose on a war‑premium boost as geopolitical tensions eased. Energy prices corrected from recent peaks, and equity indices...
Nickel Demand to Grow on EV Shift, but Africa’s Global Production Share Remains Small
Global nickel demand is set to rise as electric‑vehicle and energy‑storage markets expand, with batteries already representing 13 % of consumption in 2023. Production surged 47 % from 2019 to 2023, driven largely by Indonesia’s rapid output growth. Africa, despite holding about...
The Oil Security Paradox: Every War Becomes an Oil Crisis in a Fossil-Fuel Economy
On March 10, 2026 Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, removing roughly 20 percent of global oil trade and sending Brent crude above $120 a barrel. The shock rippled worldwide, pushing US gasoline to $4 a gallon and prompting emergency measures in over...
Natural Gas Prices Weekly Update – JKM, TTF and Henry Hub (7 May 2026)
Natural gas prices rose across the major benchmarks last week as geopolitical tension and supply constraints tightened markets. In Asia, the JKM index climbed to the low $18s per MMBtu after fears of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure. Europe’s...
Hamilton’s Net Oil Price (WTI) Variable
Hamilton’s Net Oil Price (NOP) metric applies a three‑year rolling average of WTI crude to smooth short‑term volatility. The chart, covering 1970‑2025, highlights recession periods in gray and shows how NOP has behaved across multiple business cycles. While the pre‑2010...
US Gasoline and Distillate Inventories Sink Below 5-Year Range, Set to Hit Historic Lows
U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles have fallen to levels not seen in five years, according to the latest Energy Information Administration data released on May 6, 2026. Nationwide gasoline inventories slipped to roughly 210 million barrels, while distillate supplies dropped to about 115 million...
Daily Energy Report
Oil markets tumbled on May 6 after Axios reported a near‑final US‑Iran memorandum of understanding that could end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude dropped more than 13%, briefly slipping below $100 per barrel to around $98...
THE COMING URANIUM SQUEEZE: The 85M Lb Deficit, the A.I. Demand Shock, the Hollowed-Out U.S. Production Crisis & Why Uranium...
Uranium markets are entering a tight supply cycle, with global demand projected to outpace supply by roughly 85 million pounds, driven largely by AI‑powered data centers and grid modernization. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust now holds over 81 million pounds—about two years...
Burning Money: Waha Gas Price
Upstream operators in the Permian are facing a 47‑day stretch of negative gas prices at the Waha hub, driven by a surge of roughly 22 Bcf/d of associated gas from record tight‑oil drilling that outpaces existing takeaway capacity. The imbalance forces...
Be Careful: Don’t Fall for the US-Iran Deal Hype — Brent Drops Below $100
Oil markets tumbled as optimism grew around a possible US‑Iran cease‑fire. The United States said it expects Iran to answer a one‑page memorandum of understanding within 48 hours, which could lift Strait of Hormuz restrictions. Brent crude briefly slipped below...
Peace Over ‘Freedom’
U.S. gasoline prices rose to $4.55 per gallon, approaching the all‑time record of $5.01 set in June 2022. Amid the price surge, President Donald Trump suspended the two‑day‑old “Project Freedom” naval operation aimed at the Strait of Hormuz after clashes...
LNG Shipping Tightens as Europe Storage Deficit and Price Risk Drive Positioning
LNG shipping capacity is tightening as Europe enters summer with a sizable storage deficit and heightened price risk ahead of the winter heating season. Traders are securing modern, flexible vessels for multimonth contracts, turning shipping into a strategic hedge rather...