MARKET CALL: Devil-May-Care
The note forecasts the S&P 500 hovering around 7,000 with a year‑end target of 7,700, assuming a mid‑year resolution to the Strait of Hormuz stalemate. It highlights a barbell positioning—overweight Energy and market‑weight IT—because both sectors trade above their 200‑day moving averages. Brent crude has nudged higher as U.S.–Iran peace talks stalled, while geopolitical blockades keep supply risk elevated. Additionally, the article points to an 87% market‑implied probability that Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as Fed chair, underscoring confidence in monetary policy stability.
Goatmeat Export Update March 2026
Australia exported 4,408 tonnes of goat meat in March 2026, a 13 percent year‑on‑year decline but still 41 percent above the five‑year average. The United States remained the top buyer with 2,179 tonnes, representing half of total shipments and staying 37 percent above the five‑year norm...
Processor Trading Conditions Update
The Beef Processor Trading Conditions (BPTC) index slipped to 14 percent in January 2026, down from 16 percent in December and far below the 72 percent peak a year earlier. Cattle input prices showed modest softening, with heavy steer down 1.1 percent and young...
Where Will Brent Futures Open Today?
A market‑based forecast predicts Brent crude futures will open near $111 per barrel today. The estimate combines data from the Kalshi prediction market with the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index, assuming the index remains unchanged from the previous session. The...
The Ceasefire Trade Tests the Bond Market's Resolve
A two‑week U.S.–Iran ceasefire announced on April 8 drove Brent crude down from $109 to $95 a barrel, erasing roughly half the war premium. The price drop lifted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz but left the 10‑year Treasury yield...
Middle East Ceasefire Fails to Ease U.S. Fertilizer Price Pressure on Farmers
The April 8 ceasefire in the Middle East did not restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving vessel traffic about 88% below pre‑conflict levels and cargo volumes down over 90%. Consequently, U.S. nitrogen fertilizer prices kept climbing, with urea up...
Muted Demand During India's Second-Biggest Gold-Buying Festival, After Prices Surge
India’s Akshaya Tritiya, the second‑largest gold‑buying festival, saw muted jewellery demand as spot gold hovered just above $4,800 per ounce, a sharp drop from the January record of $5,595. While volume sales fell, higher prices kept total spend up. Investment...
Bank of America Sees Silver Soaring to $135 to $309 This Year
Bank of America has projected a sharp rise in silver, setting a price target of $135 to $309 per ounce by the end of 2026. The forecast relies on a projected drop in the gold‑to‑silver ratio from its current 62...
Friday Footnotes: A Season Built on Hope
The 2026 planting season in the U.S. Corn Belt is unfolding amid heightened uncertainty, with farmers repeatedly hearing the word “hope” from suppliers and lenders. Tight fertilizer inventories, lingering supply‑chain bottlenecks, and volatile weather patterns are adding pressure to planting...
Uncertainty About Jet Fuel Dominates Airline Boardrooms
Airline executives convened at the CAPA Airline Leader Summit in Berlin to confront soaring jet‑fuel costs, which have breached $200 per barrel. The price surge follows the Israel‑U.S. conflict with Iran and Lebanon and the subsequent closure of the Strait...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Futures slipped after mixed overnight trading, led by wheat losses as technical profit taking intensified. Corn and soybeans also fell on May options expiration, while drought in the West weighed on wheat but supported planting progress for corn and soy....
Precious Metals Rise As DOJ Drops Powell Probe To Facilitate Warsh Confirmation
Gold futures edged up $14 to $4,738 per ounce while silver rose 92 cents to $76.43 per ounce, keeping precious metals in positive territory despite ongoing geopolitical tension. The Department of Justice abruptly ended its investigation into the Federal Reserve’s...
Disrupted: Food Supply For 3.5+ Billion Depends On Nitrogen Fertilizer
The ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has halted shipments from the Persian Gulf, which produces roughly 35% of global nitrogen fertilizer. With no strategic stockpiles and the northern‑hemisphere planting season underway, farmers face a sudden shortfall of this...
Gold Daily Call for April 24th, 2026
Gold prices continued a choppy, sideways-to‑slightly‑lower pattern on April 24, 2026, as the metal entered a corrective phase. The market appears to be establishing a floor rather than launching a deep sell‑off, with momentum clearly fading. Trading data shows a...
Cocoa Market Update, Surplus Pressures Meet Geopolitical Risk
ICE New York cocoa futures swung sharply after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, injecting a short‑term risk premium into a market already burdened by record inventories and a confirmed global surplus. While the May contract jumped 3.7% mid‑week, underlying...
Iran War Winners and Losers: North American Energy
The Iran‑Russia conflict has knocked roughly 13‑17 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf and Russian crude offline, pushing global oil prices higher. U.S. shale production is at record levels but costs $30‑60 per barrel, while Canadian oil‑sands extraction runs $60‑70...
NTD News Segment: Why Gasoline Prices Are Lower in America Than Europe
American drivers pay less than half the price Europeans pay for gasoline, even after recent Middle East‑related spikes. The primary driver is the stark tax disparity: Europe imposes roughly $3‑$4 per gallon in fuel taxes, while most U.S. states levy...
ICYMI: Iran War Forces Asia Refiners to Slash Runs, Putting Diesel and Jet Supply at Risk
The Iran‑Israel conflict has shut the Strait of Hormuz, slashing Asia’s crude imports by about 22% year‑on‑year to a 10‑year low of roughly 20.4 million barrels per day in April. Refinery runs are projected to dip to around 28.5 million bpd through...
Japan FinMin Katayama Warns of Decisive Action on Speculation
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Katayama warned that speculative trading in oil markets has risen sharply and said Tokyo will take decisive action in coordination with the United States. He emphasized that the existing Japan‑U.S. currency swap lines remain unchanged, providing...
Gold & Silver Sell Off As Israel Makes Clear The War (& Strait Closure) Aren't Ending Anytime Soon
Gold futures slipped $44 to $4,708 per ounce and silver fell $2.51 to $75.44 per ounce, while crude oil rose $4 to $97 a barrel. The decline reflects market anxiety that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, as Israel’s...
THE SILVER SQUEEZE IS INEVITABLE: The U.S. Imports 77%, China Sets Records, the 6-Year Deficit, & America's Critical Silver Vulnerability...
The United States now imports roughly 77% of the silver it consumes, even after the metal was officially labeled a critical mineral by the USGS. Meanwhile, China set a new record by importing 836 tons of silver in March—a 78% month‑over‑month...
A Self-Imposed Energy Crisis Looms In California
A new study by USC and UC Berkeley warns that California is on the brink of an acute gasoline shortage. The researchers attribute the looming crisis to recent refinery closures, a long‑term decline in in‑state crude production, and a sharp reduction...
Silver Daily Call for April 23rd, 2026
Silver prices are sliding within a pronounced downward channel, with the metal struggling to break back above its 50‑day moving average at $78.60. A 4‑hour stochastic divergence hints the downside may be capped, but the overall corrective trend persists. The...
Thermal Coal Update
Thermal coal markets have lost the tailwinds they enjoyed after the Strait of Hormuz blockage, sending both spot prices and related equities sharply lower. Over the past two months, benchmark thermal coal contracts have slipped to roughly $70 per metric...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Global grain markets opened higher, led by wheat, while corn and soybeans added modest weather premiums. Recent revisions show Russia maintaining its wheat outlook, but Australia’s drought now threatens roughly one‑third of its crop and Argentina has trimmed its forecast....
Interview with Mining.com
Gold is trading around $4,700‑$4,800 an ounce, held up by strong demand even as a firmer U.S. dollar and higher bond yields pressure prices. In a Mining.com interview, former banker Alasdair Macleod argues the market’s real shift is occurring in...
Fertilizer Prices in Context
A new CSIS chart tracks fertilizer, oil and maize prices from 2000, highlighting sharp spikes during four distinct crises: the 2007‑08 food price surge, prolonged droughts, the COVID‑19 pandemic combined with the Ukraine war, and the recent "Epic Fury" weather...
Can Iran Keep Pumping? The Blockade’s Impact on Oil Production, Exports, and Storage
The United States has instituted a naval blockade of Iranian ports to halt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran can maintain its current production level for roughly two months before onshore storage fills, after which output must be...
Jet Fuel Import Flows Collapse
The onset of the Middle East war and the near‑shutdown of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have slashed global jet fuel exports by roughly half. Persian Gulf shipments, traditionally the largest source, have virtually stopped, while China’s de‑facto ban...
THE 2026 DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT & GRID EMERGENCY: The Critical Metals Demand Stack Is Unstoppable & Why Trump's Wartime Mobilization...
President Trump invoked Section 303 of the Defense Production Act, designating the U.S. electric grid as essential to national defense. The White House granted the Energy Secretary authority to bypass standard procedures and deploy federal capital for rapid domestic grid...
Switzerland’s Gold Exports Rise 30% as Investors Seek Safe Haven Amid Global Uncertainty – by Ernest Hoffman (Kitco News –...
Swiss gold exports surged 30% month‑on‑month in March, driven by a sharp rebound in shipments to the United Kingdom and a solid rise to China. Deliveries to the UK jumped to 57.6 tonnes, the highest level since December, while exports...
Question Time: Age of Scarcity and Energy Prices (VIDEO)
Alhambra Research’s Bob Williams examines the emerging "age of scarcity" in a new video, highlighting how constrained energy supplies are driving unprecedented price spikes. He links tighter oil and gas markets to higher inflation, reduced corporate margins, and shifting geopolitical...
CMA CGM Adjusts BAF on France–Tunisia Ro-Ro Service
CMA CGM will revise its Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) for the ro‑ro South service linking France and Tunisia, effective May 1 2026. The new surcharge sets full rolling units at €649 (≈$708) per unit, empty units at €430 (≈$469), other rolling cargo...
The Global Rush For Physical Gold & Silver Is Going Into Overdrive | Andy Schectman
Physical gold and silver demand is surging globally, with COMEX deliveries hitting unprecedented levels and China’s silver imports reaching record highs. Nations such as France are repatriating gold stored abroad, reflecting heightened concerns over counter‑party risk. Andy Schectman, CEO of...
Daily Energy Report
Global crude floating storage has climbed to its highest level since the summer of 2020, according to Kpler’s weekly data for 2025‑2026. The surge follows the onset of the Iran‑related conflict and the resulting Hormuz Strait bottleneck, which have forced...
US EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories +1925K vs -1200K Expected
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported crude oil inventories rose by 1.925 million barrels for the week ending April 10, far above the 1.2 million‑barrel draw analysts expected. Gasoline stocks plunged 4.57 million barrels and distillate inventories fell 3.43 million barrels, both exceeding forecasted declines....
Fuel Prices Decline as Diesel and Gasoline Markets Ease After Volatility
U.S. diesel and gasoline prices slipped this week, with diesel down 21 cents to $5.403 per gallon and gasoline down 8 cents to $4.044 per gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration. Despite the declines, both fuels remain well above...
Silver’s Price Outlook
Silver has been reclassified by the United States as a critical mineral, driven by soaring industrial demand and its historic role as a monetary metal in Asia. China, the world’s second‑largest producer after Mexico, supplies about 110 million ounces (≈3,421 tonnes) annually,...
The Iran War Threatens To Pull The Plug On American Farming’s Life Support
The Iran‑Israel conflict is driving oil and natural‑gas prices higher, threatening the energy‑intensive U.S. food system. The war has pushed global urea fertilizer costs up about 50%, exposing the reliance of American farms on imports that travel through the Strait...
LNG Bunkering Prices Surge as Hormuz Disruption Reshapes Market Dynamics
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent LNG bunkering markets into volatility, removing roughly 20% of global seaborne LNG capacity and driving Asian spot prices up more than 140%. While Brent crude rose about 50% to $100 per...
Interview with Asharq Bloomberg TV Dubai 22.04.2026
In a 22 April 2026 interview on Asharq Bloomberg TV, The Macro Butler warned that oil prices are as unreliable as central‑bank forecasts because the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut by a naval blockade. He argued that the apparent stability of...
Gold Daily Call for April 22nd, 2026
Markets sold off on lingering U.S.–Iran cease‑fire uncertainty, then rallied sharply after fresh comments from former President Trump. Gold remains in a risk‑off correction, having bounced from a double‑bottom near $4,670. The metal could retest the $4,820 support zone, but...
Government Backs Fertiliser Imports, Farmers Gain Certainty, Taxpayers Take the Exposure
The Australian government has introduced an underwriting scheme to backstop fertilizer imports amid supply disruptions caused by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The policy guarantees losses for importers who lock in cargoes at high global prices, shifting downside risk...
Market Morsel: Northern Premiums Ready to Wake
Australian grain pricing is increasingly driven by domestic basis rather than global futures. Drying trends and falling subsoil moisture in northern New South Wales and Queensland are tightening local supply. As El Niño risk grows, buyers are moving earlier, creating emerging...
EP3 Brief
The Australian federal government has begun underwriting fertilizer imports, using strategic reserves to absorb price risk and guarantee timely delivery amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Grain production in New South Wales and Queensland faces a potential double‑digit decline as...
An Interesting Setup in Copper & Silver
The author’s Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI) ties copper to silver, confirming that silver’s long‑term bull market remains intact despite a January correction. Copper recently broke out of an ascending triangle, a classic bullish pattern, reinforcing the uptrend. Because the...
Daily Energy Report
China’s oil inventories have surged to a record high as firms tap cheap barrels bought for about $50 per barrel from Iran, Russia and Venezuela, rather than purchasing current imports priced above $100. The rise runs counter to market expectations...
Today’s TACO Tuesday and the Markets
Paul Krugman argues that analysts, including the IMF, model the Hormuz crisis backwards—starting with oil price forecasts instead of physical supply constraints. He contends that real shortages, not price spikes, drive deeper economic disruption. The piece highlights that a sizable...
The Hormuz Closure Is Driving a Shortage of Battery Ingredients
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked the flow of seaborne sulfur, driving up sulfuric acid prices worldwide. As the primary feedstock for refining copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, the shortage is already prompting output cuts at...
Stagflation Dead Ahead! | Chance Finucane
Chief Investment Officer Chance Finucane of Oxbow Advisors warns that the oil price shock from the Iran conflict is igniting a fresh inflation surge that could drag growth into stagflation. He believes markets are already pricing a near‑term de‑escalation, leaving...