WHEN IS THE PRECIOUS METALS BULL CYCLE OVER? The 62:1 Gold to Silver Ratio Tells Us The Parabolic Move Is...
Gold broke out of a 13‑year consolidation in 2024, marking the midpoint of a historic bull market in precious metals. The article argues that the real upside lies in silver, whose price could surge as the Gold‑to‑Silver Ratio (GSR) reverts from its current 62:1 level toward historic lows of 30:1 or 15:1. A ratio contraction would imply silver prices between $160 and $300 per ounce, even if gold stalls. Technical analysts view the current sentiment reset as a necessary fuel for a parabolic second half of the cycle.
Why The Conflict In Iran Is Changing How Engine Oil Is Made And Causing Oil Brands To Get Upset With...
The Iran‑U.S. conflict has shut down roughly 44% of the U.S. supply of Group III base oil, a key component for most synthetic motor oils. The American Petroleum Institute responded with a 90‑day Emergency Provisional Licensing program, allowing manufacturers to substitute...
Daily Energy Report
Oil prices jumped about 4% on April 16 as traders grew skeptical that US‑Iran peace talks will quickly resolve the Hormuz crisis, tightening supply and deepening backwardation. Market participants note that inventory hoarding is more aggressive than anticipated, further constraining...
Indonesia Nickel Makers Trim Battery-Feed Output as Sulphur Squeeze Bites (Mining.com/Reuters – April 14, 2026)
A sulphur shortage triggered by the Iran war has forced Indonesian nickel processors to cut output by at least 10% since last month. The curbs target plants that use sulphuric acid to turn nickel ore into mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP),...
Supply Disruptions and Energy Security
War in Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off about 8% of global oil flow, the largest disruption since the 1970s. In the first month of the conflict, West Texas Intermediate rose roughly 50%, a muted response compared...
Listing the Risks Behind (Unpredicted) Solar Oversupply and the Resulting Extreme Low Prices
Solar capacity in the EU is growing at roughly 60 GW per year, creating frequent midday oversupply that can push electricity prices into negative territory. When actual generation exceeds day‑ahead forecasts by several gigawatts, markets have seen four‑digit negative prices, as...
Silver Is Breaking Out
Silver has broken above the descending trend line of a recent triangle pattern, confirming a bullish shift after its correction from a $121 peak in late January. The metal remains above its upward‑sloping 200‑day moving average, indicating sustained momentum. Analysts...
How A Government Gold Price Reset Could Actually Work...
Gold futures slipped $30 on Wednesday, settling at $4,820 per ounce, while silver futures fell 15 cents to $79.39. The article explores a hypothetical government‑driven gold price reset, outlining the mechanical steps such a move would require. It also notes...
The US Diesel Shock: Inventories to Record Lows, Prices to Record Highs?
U.S. diesel inventories are projected to plunge to historic lows, according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest forecast. The tightening supply has driven diesel futures above $5 per gallon, the highest level since 2022. Contributing factors include extensive refinery maintenance,...
Silver Daily Call for April 15th, 2026
Silver surged to $81.02 after a Friday gap‑down, then retreated to $78.24 as traders digested the move. Technical indicators now show an overbought sell signal, pointing to a short‑term consolidation phase. Analysts keep the $83 upside target in view, but...
Parlez-Vous Oil Trader?
The Blindspot premium article introduces key oil‑market concepts—backwardation, physical differentials, and time spreads—and explains what they mean for traders. Backwardation describes a market where near‑term contracts trade above distant futures, indicating tight short‑term supply. Physical differentials capture price gaps between...
THIS ISN'T YOUR FATHER'S OIL SHOCK: The 4 Pillars of U.S. Energy Resilience & Why the U.S. Can and Is...
The United States is now far more resilient to oil price spikes than during the 1970s stagflation era. A multi‑decade shift—driven by the shale revolution, lower energy intensity, and a smaller share of gasoline in household budgets—means the economy can...
Asian LNG Demand Weakens as Iran Conflict Reshapes Energy Strategy
Asian LNG imports slipped to 20.4 million tonnes in March 2026, down from a 2025 average of 22.1 Mt, as the Iran‑related conflict disrupts supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz and curtails flows from Qatar and the UAE. The volatility and...
Natural Gas Prices Weekly Update – JKM, TTF and Henry Hub (13 April 2026)
Natural gas prices fell across Asia, Europe and the United States last week as warmer weather and easing supply‑demand pressure outweighed earlier geopolitical spikes. The JKM index slipped to the high‑$16 per MMBtu range after briefly touching low‑$18s amid Middle...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Overnight grain markets were mixed, with corn and soybeans gaining while wheat edged lower. May corn futures broke a $4.46 double‑top, suggesting a potential new support zone. Energy price rebounds and a heightened risk premium are underpinning soybean strength, and...
Gold and Commodities Are Set to Soar
Gold and silver appear to have found a floor and are climbing, driven by a broader rally in commodities. The surge follows the United States’ naval blockade in the Sea of Oman, which threatens the supply of base metals, sulphuric...
Much Chatter that Iran Talks to Resume as Ceasefire Extension Discussed
U.S. enforcement of its blockade on Iranian ports showed full compliance in the first 24 hours, with no vessels breaching the restrictions. At the same time, more than 20 oil tankers have recently transited the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a...
Gold & Silver Rally, As Market Digests Cryptic Trump 'Reset' Comment
Precious metals surged on Tuesday, with gold futures climbing $99 to $4,866 per ounce and silver up $3.92 to $79.59 per ounce. The rally coincided with a $7 drop in oil futures, which slipped to about $92 a barrel despite...
2026 IS THE PERFECT STORM: How Constrained Oil Supply, Record Commodity Demand, Rising Budget Deficits, & a Dovish Fed Are...
The article warns that 2026 is a “perfect storm” for hard assets as constrained oil supply, surging commodity demand, expanding US deficits, and a dovish Federal Reserve converge. Iran’s new toll‑gate strategy in the Strait of Hormuz creates a structural...
Daily Energy Report
The latest EOA chart reveals a sharp rise in oil inventories across Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar as the Hormuz Strait closure blocks crude exports. On‑shore stockpiles and an unprecedented amount of floating storage tankers now hold record volumes in the...
Gas Prices EXPLODE as Hormuz Is Blocked! EP740
Survival Dispatch released a preview of its evening podcast warning that gasoline prices are set to surge as the Strait of Hormuz faces a new blockade. The U.S. Navy began restricting Iranian ports on April 13, raising concerns over a...
How Gold Prices Really Move: Understanding the Forces Behind the Market
The article breaks down the four core forces that move gold – interest‑rate expectations, inflation dynamics, the U.S. dollar’s strength, and geopolitical risk – and shows how they interact rather than act in isolation. It stresses that forward‑looking rate expectations...
Escalating Bidding Wars For Physical Crude Oil Delivery And Implications For Silver And Gold
A surge in bidding wars for physical crude and LNG has erupted after the Strait of Hormuz blockage cut off 30‑35% of global supply. Traders in the North Sea are paying record premiums, with prompt deliveries now exceeding $150 per...
The Days Of Sub-$3.00 Gasoline Are Over Amid Lingering Iran Conflict
U.S. gasoline prices are unlikely to return to sub‑$3 per gallon as the Iran‑Israel conflict drags on, disrupting oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. White House Economic Advisor Keven Hasset once predicted a quick rebound, but Energy Secretary...
Rick Rule: The Coming Copper Price Shock
Rick Rule warns that decades of under‑investment in copper exploration and mine development have left the market severely undersupplied. With consumption already outpacing production, inventories are dwindling and new supply cannot materialize for another 5‑10 years. He predicts a sharp...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Corn, soybeans and wheat all posted gains in overnight trade as bearish headlines fade, yet bullish catalysts remain scarce, limiting upside. The energy complex slipped lower this morning, further dampening ag price momentum. US soybean planting is on a record‑fast...
White Sugar: Supply Shock Meets Weak Support
ICE white sugar futures slid 5% last week, closing at $413.8 per tonne, erasing a brief six‑month high. The drop was driven by two structural supply shocks: India confirmed no export restrictions and cut ethanol diversion, freeing up an extra...
The Hormuz Crisis and the Oil Market: Spot Vs. Futures – A Straightforward Classroom Explanation
The article uses an Econ‑101 lens to explain why physical (spot) oil prices surged while futures lagged during the recent Hormuz Strait crisis. It attributes the spot spike to immediate shipping disruptions and highlights the divergence as a symptom of...
Brits to Get Paid to Use Electricity
British households and factories will receive payments to increase electricity consumption during periods of excess renewable generation, a move aimed at soaking up surplus power and easing grid strain. The scheme introduces market‑based demand flexibility, helping to curb curtailment of...
What My Proprietary Indicator Says About Silver
The author revisits his Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI), a proprietary tool built from gold and copper data, to gauge silver's trajectory. The SSPI’s 200‑day moving average remains upward‑sloping, indicating an ongoing uptrend despite a two‑month pullback. Both the SSPI...
Six Weeks to No Fuel at All
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February, and the last tanker that cleared the waterway on February 28 is expected to arrive around April 20, ending the flow of pre‑closure oil stocks. Once those inventories are exhausted, global...
SILVER IS THE TRIPLE-IDENTITY ASSET: China's $48T M2 Explosion, Countries Hoarding Silver, the Export Ban, the Structural Deficit, & Why...
China’s broad money supply (M2) has surged past $48 trillion, dwarfing the combined US and EU totals, and is expected to add $4.5 trillion in 2025 alone. The expansion is prompting both the state and citizens to hoard hard assets, especially silver,...
CHINA TO BAN SULFURIC ACID EXPORTS: Copper and Uranium Mining Impacted, Bullish and Bearish Catalyst, Who Loses, & This Mining...
China announced it will halt exports of byproduct sulfuric acid starting in May 2026. The acid is a core reagent for heap‑leaching copper and uranium ores, so the ban threatens to raise input costs and curb output in mining hubs...
Daily Energy Report
OPEC left its global oil supply and demand forecasts unchanged despite the Iran war’s disruptive impact. The organization projects crude demand to reach 106.53 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026 and 107.87 mb/d in 2027, with a softer second‑quarter offset by...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Grains opened the week higher, led by wheat gains after rain fell across the Southern Plains. Reduced global grain production forecasts from U.S. competitors and a strong energy complex further buoyed prices. Soybeans showed mixed movement, with the fourth day...
Prolonged Hormuz Strait Closure Would Have ‘Profound’ Impact on Mining: Friedland – by Frederic Tomesco (Northern Miner – April 13,...
Ivanhoe Mines co‑chairman Robert Friedland warned that a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would sharply tighten global sulfur markets, cutting roughly half of the seaborne sulfur supply. With about 20% of worldwide copper production dependent on sulfuric‑acid leaching,...
Forty Years After Chernobyl, Uranium Market Rebounds but Fragility Persists – by Aurel Sèdjro Houenou (Ecofin Agency – April 12,...
Forty years after the Chernobyl disaster, the uranium market has rebounded, with spot prices climbing to $101 per pound in early 2026. The surge reflects renewed global interest in civil nuclear power as part of the broader energy transition. Higher...
OPEC+ Data Deck (April 2026)
The latest OPEC+ Data Deck reveals a March production drop of 7,587 kbpd, bringing quota‑participating output to 28,312 kbpd – the second‑largest monthly decline on record and the lowest level for the expanded group since the 1990 Desert Storm period. The fall...
Global Physical Oil Supply Picture Is Dire - And Getting Worse
Physical oil is now trading at $149 per barrel for North Sea Forties, a stark contrast to futures contracts. The Iran‑Israel conflict and a U.S. blockade have pushed crude loss to 15 million barrels per day, pulling global stockpiles down by...
Fed's Goolsbee: Oil Futures Show This Will Be a Short-Run Problem (Why He's Wrong)
Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee argued that the steeply backwardated oil futures curve proves the current price spike is a short‑run issue. The article counters that backwardation reflects immediate physical scarcity and a high convenience yield, not a forecast of...
ADG 4/13: Squeeze Box
New research shows consumer‑grade AI chatbots struggle with medical diagnosis when patient information is sparse, often converging on a single answer too quickly. Meanwhile, Intel’s stock jumped 58% in early April, the best nine‑day rally ever, after announcing a $14.2 billion...
Illinois Cash Rents and Leasing Expectations Through 2027
The Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers survey shows cash‑rent rates on Illinois farmland remained robust in 2026, with median rents of $375 per acre for excellent soils and $325 for good soils. While 2025 cash‑rent returns...
Wheat May Pay More Than Corn
U.S. farm income support payments under the ARC and PLC programs peaked in September 2025 but have been eroding, according to the latest April WASDE report. The new data indicate that wheat’s projected payments may now exceed those for corn,...
TMTB Morning Wrap
Futures slipped 6 basis points while crude jumped 8% after President Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, heightening geopolitical risk. Asian equity markets were mixed, with Japan, Korea and Hong Kong indices down and China’s Shanghai...
A Devastating Loss
Oil markets have entered a period of extreme volatility, with prices swinging wildly after a Trump post on TruthSocial and rapid analyst revisions. Commodity traders have incurred billions in losses, while investment banks profit from heightened trading volumes. The chaos...
Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia
The Iran war has slashed Persian Gulf oil exports to roughly 10‑12 million barrels per day, creating a global supply shortfall and pushing crude prices above $100 a barrel. While Russia initially saw a windfall from higher prices, Ukrainian drone strikes...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Grain prices posted solid gains in overnight trade, with corn flash sales resuming despite modest volumes. Soybean contracts are firming as fresh buying interest emerges, while steady export demand and concerns over rising input costs underpin contract support. Wheat is...
What's Different This Cycle, Oil Update and RE Build ?S From E-Mail
The oil market experienced extreme volatility this week, with Brent climbing from roughly $90 to $120 per barrel before settling near $105. The price swings coincided with a rapid escalation in Middle‑East tensions, moving from a tentative cease‑fire to threats...
A Closer Look at U.S. Electricity Rate Trends
A new Charles River Associates report, using five years of EIA and FERC data, shows that national retail electricity price growth is driven largely by outliers in California and the Northeast. While those regions experienced sharp spikes—California due to $40 billion...
Gazprom Exports to the EU Jump 21% Y/Y in March as Hormuz Crisis Tighten LNG Supply
Europe’s gas storage fell to 27.7% of capacity by the end of March, the lowest seasonal level since 2022, yet the continent avoided a supply shortfall through the winter. In March, Gazprom boosted its exports to the EU by 21%...