Jet Fuel Volatility Continues to Weigh on Airline Profitability, Warns IBA
New IBA analysis shows jet fuel prices remain roughly 54% above pre‑conflict levels, with a brief dip to $94 per barrel after a ceasefire but overall volatility persisting. The firm revised its 2026 global airline EBIT margin outlook down to 5.5%, a 1.7‑point drop from the pre‑conflict forecast. Regional impacts vary sharply: Asia‑Pacific and the Middle East face the steepest margin compressions, while North America and Europe are projected to see modest declines thanks to stronger hedging and domestic supply dynamics.
This Isn't Trading. It's Theft From Your Retirement.
The post alleges that Donald Trump’s public statements and policy moves in 2025‑2026 triggered massive, precisely timed trades that enriched insiders while wiping out trillions in market value. Notable examples include a $500 million crude‑oil futures dump before a cease‑fire announcement,...
Bring On the Jet Fuel Shortages
Peter Zeihan warns that even if the Iran ceasefire holds, a months‑long global jet‑fuel shortage is already baked in. The shutdown of medium‑heavy sour crude production in Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia—key feedstock for jet fuel—has removed the primary supply...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
U.S. corn planting reached 11% last week, matching last year’s pace, while emergence is already 4% ahead of normal. Soybean planting jumped to 12%, outpacing the prior season by 5%. Winter wheat conditions remain weak, with only 30% rated good/excellent...
Global Sugar: Record Output Across Brazil and India Keeps Prices Under Heavy Pressure
ICE White Sugar August 2026 futures slipped to $412.3 per tonne as record‑high output from Brazil, India and China swelled global supplies. India has already exceeded its full‑season forecast with 27.39 Mt and plans no export ban, while Brazil projects a...
Coffee Market Hits Supply Ceiling, Bulls Lose Momentum Again
ICE coffee C May 2026 futures slid 3.6% to 289.3¢ per pound, breaking a multi‑week consolidation band and extending a downtrend that began in January. The decline was driven by a convergence of bullish Brazil crop forecasts—up to 75.9 million bags—and...
Australia Institute on Gaslighting; Risky Flood Proposal; GetUp and Hanson; STH BNK by Beulah
A Nationals senator is fact‑checking the Australia Institute’s claim that a 25% gas export tax could fund free university and childcare, as the federal government reconsiders a new gas tax. In New South Wales, the state faces backlash for proposing...
Wagyu Numbers Ease
Australia’s feedlot sector trimmed its average days on feed from 164 days in 2024 to 155 days by the end of 2025. The shift was driven by a 25% drop in Wagyu cattle on feed, falling from over 300,000 head...
Jet Fuel Shipments Tank; Global Supply In-Transit Plunges 60%
Global jet and kerosene fuel volumes in transit by tanker have fallen 60% since March 1, 2026, with European‑bound shipments plunging 80%, according to Kpler data. The drop reflects tighter refinery output and shifting demand patterns. Industries that rely on just‑in‑time delivery...
MAJOR BANKS PREDICT SILVER PRICE EXPLOSION: The Sentiment Reset, the Unsolvable Deficit, the Byproduct Trap, the Historic Demand Stack, &...
Silver has settled into a tight $70‑$80 range, creating a solid technical base after a parabolic rally. The sideways action reset market sentiment, flushing out speculative hands and leaving a coiled chart ready for a breakout. Physical fundamentals are tightening,...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Grain futures rallied on Monday, with wheat leading the charge as drought concerns in the U.S. Plains and reports of field abandonment tightened supplies. Corn followed wheat’s upward trend, buoyed by the same weather worries, while soybeans lagged due to...
Europe Could Run Out of Jet Fuel in Six Weeks
The International Energy Agency warns that Europe could exhaust its jet‑fuel supplies within six weeks as the Iran‑Houthi conflict tightens the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 75% of the continent’s net oil imports come from the Middle East, and the disruption...
Daily Energy Report
EU LNG imports surged to a record 10.17 million tons in March 2026, a 10% month‑on‑month increase. The United States dominated the supply mix, providing 55.7% of all EU LNG cargoes, while Russia’s share slipped to 17.9% ahead of a planned ban....
Rio Tinto Trying to Meet U.S. Aluminum Demand as Middle East War Roils Supply Chains – by Nicolas Van Praet...
Rio Tinto is ramping up production at its six Canadian aluminum smelters to satisfy rising U.S. demand as the Israel‑Iran conflict drives global aluminum prices higher. The Saguenay, Quebec facilities and the Kitimat, B.C. plant are already near full capacity,...
Iran War’s Sulfurous Fallout Spreads to Copper and Nickel – by Andy Home (Reuters – April 17, 2026)
The Iran‑Israel conflict has choked sulfur flow from the Gulf after the Strait of Hormuz closed on Feb. 28, triggering a global sulfur squeeze. Sulfuric acid, essential for solvent‑extraction copper and HPAL nickel processes, is now scarce as China, the world’s...
The Mineral Imperative, Trump, and The Art of the Deal – by Amanda Van Dyke (Substack – April 19, 2026)
Amanda van Dyke argues that while the United States has long relied on China for critical minerals, a new wave of legislation is reshaping the "mineral imperative" and strengthening domestic supply chains. Recent policies, including the Critical Minerals Act, aim...
Middle East Conflict Revives Concerns Over Fertilizer Dependence in the U.S. and Brazil
Recent hostilities in the Middle East have restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for roughly 30% of global fertilizer shipments. The United States, which supplies about 60% of its own fertilizer, still relies on imports for 95%...
Military Metals Advances World's 3rd Largest Antimony Project
Military Metals Corp announced an NI 43‑101 inferred resource of 67,000 tonnes of antimony at 1.02% grade, accompanied by 220,000 ounces of gold, at its Trojárová project in western Slovakia – the world’s third‑largest primary antimony deposit. The company plans a pre‑feasibility...
Trump’s $1 Billion TotalEnergies Deal Is ‘Worthless’
The Trump administration offered to pay TotalEnergies roughly $1 billion to cancel its offshore wind leases, positioning the funds as a boost for U.S. oil and gas development. Heatmap analysis shows the deal is effectively worthless because TotalEnergies was already slated...
Gas Confusion
The anticipated plunge in LNG prices as U.S. exporters rushed to capture Asian demand has not materialized, and the expected surge of LNG as Asia’s primary fuel is also lagging. Despite a wave of new U.S. export terminals adding capacity,...
5 Big Energy Stories - 4.20.2026: Here We Go Again
Oil markets surged as the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly opened and closed, pushing Brent crude into the mid‑$90s and WTI back into the high $80s. President Trump’s mixed signals—promising a cease‑fire with Iran while threatening to destroy its power infrastructure—added...
President Trump Says Gas Prices ‘Not Very High’
President Donald Trump told reporters that current gasoline prices are “not very high,” even as U.S. drivers face an average increase of more than $1 per gallon—a roughly 33% jump since the Iran‑related conflict began. A recent CBS poll shows...
Fertilizer Prices Weekly Update (April 13 – 20, 2026)
Urea settled at $702.25 per ton, up 81.69% year‑to‑date, while DAP held near $722.5 per ton with an 11.58% monthly gain. Sulfur prices jumped to CNY 6,100 per ton (about $847), marking a 158.73% rise from a year ago. European TTF...
Using Today’s Futures, Don’t Expect Gasoline Prices to Soon Return to Antebellum Levels*
The article uses a log‑difference regression linking Brent futures to regular gasoline prices, finding a conditional forecast that gasoline will stay above pre‑conflict levels. The model (1990‑2026) explains 56% of price movements, but the author warns that futures have underperformed...
The Money Supply Is Surging
The author argues that a secular bull market in precious metals began in April 2024, driven by a rapid expansion of the global money supply. U.S. M2 has surged by roughly $2 trillion, a 10% increase since its October 2023 low, coinciding with...
Shorter Easter Week Prompts Tighter Supply
A shorter Easter processing week has sharply reduced sheep and lamb yardings across most Australian states, tightening national supply. In New South Wales, sheep yardings fell from 71% to 38% and lamb yardings dropped from 58% to 40% between the...
Sheepmeat Export Update March 2026
Australian sheep‑meat exports slipped 24% year‑on‑year in March 2026 to 42,656 tonnes, falling below the five‑year average. The United States emerged as the strongest market, posting a 21% increase and accounting for about 18% of total shipments. Exports to China fell...
Prediction Markets on Hormuz Strait and June Brent Futures: 6:30PM ET
Prediction‑market platform Kalshi shows the probability of normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by May 15 slipping to 37 %, down from earlier optimism. The market also priced a 5.9 % jump in June Brent crude futures, reflecting heightened geopolitical tension. The...
How Trump’s Protectionism on Aluminum Works in Two Pictures
President Trump’s Section 232 tariffs on aluminum started at 10% in 2018 and were increased to 50% in 2025, eliminating most exemptions. Instead of boosting domestic output, primary smelting fell from dozens to just four plants, with only two operating at...
China’s Gold Demand Quantified
China’s gold accumulation strategy, launched by the People’s Bank of China in 1983 and continued through 2002, has built a massive reserve that far exceeds official figures. Recent spikes in bullion prices, driven by weakening fiat currencies, are prompting Chinese...
From Friday High Fives to Monday Morning Blues ?
A sharp oil rally over the weekend was driven more by trader positioning and flow dynamics than by any genuine improvement in fundamentals. The sudden shift from an open to a threatened Strait of Hormuz forced the market to price...
The Price of War
The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil, has been effectively shut after Israel’s heavy strikes on Lebanon and U.S. sanctions on non‑Iranian tankers. The closure coincides with a fragile cease‑fire and a U.S....
Rotterdam Bunker Volumes Fall as Fossil Fuels Drive Decline
Bunker sales at the Port of Rotterdam fell about 25% in Q1 2026 versus the same period a year earlier, driven primarily by a sharp drop in fossil fuel deliveries. Very‑low‑sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) plunged 44%, while high‑sulphur fuel oil (HSFO)...
High Oil Prices, Explained by an Expert
Gasbuddy’s petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan explains the surge in U.S. gasoline prices, citing tighter refinery margins, geopolitical supply constraints, and lingering pandemic demand rebounds. He argues that President Trump’s rhetoric oversimplifies the market, ignoring the complex interplay of crude costs,...
Aluminium in Crisis: War, Tariffs and a Market Running on Empty – by Andy Home (Reuters – April 16, 2026)
The ongoing Iran war has sparked a severe aluminium shortage, amplified by a missile strike that knocked out Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatar Aluminium have already trimmed output due to power constraints, and the conflict has...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Early trade on Friday was shaped by pre‑weekend position squaring and shifting dynamics in the Persian Gulf. A tentative cease‑fire between the U.S. and Iran, along with an Israel‑Lebanon truce, eased some headline risk but left uncertainty about troop movements....
Daily Energy Report
Oil prices plunged more than 10% on April 17, 2026 after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was fully open for commercial shipping, sending Brent crude down $13 per barrel. The announcement, reinforced by President Trump’s remarks, sparked a rally...
Is Hormuz Strait Open? A Short Comment for Traders and Investors
Traders are closely watching the Strait of Hormuz after recent satellite data confirmed that the main shipping lane remains fully operational. Kpler’s April 17 2026 analysis shows no significant vessel congestion or closures, despite regional geopolitical tensions. The report highlights that oil...
What Trump Doesn’t Understand About Oil and Gas: It Ain’t No Dimmer Switch
Senior Trump administration officials, including Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, met with CEOs of ExxonMobil, Chevron and other major producers to demand a rapid increase in U.S. oil output after the Iran‑linked Strait of Hormuz disruption...
Headlines: April 2026
April 2026 saw a wave of European and UK energy policy moves aimed at taming soaring power costs and integrating more renewables. Britain will pay households and factories to shift electricity use to off‑peak periods, while the EU plans tax...
THE URANIUM PARADIGM SHIFT: Structural Deficits, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, the Coming Utility Panic, the Supply Illusion, Sovereign Hoarding,...
The uranium market has entered a structural deficit as the long‑standing secondary supply illusion finally collapsed. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has begun selling into the spot market, wiping out remaining inventory and pushing spot prices toward $85 per pound....
Drought Engulfs 60% Of U.S. As Farmers Begin Spring Planting
A NOAA report shows that 60% of the contiguous United States is in drought as the 2026 growing season begins. The southern belt faces severe to exceptional dryness, threatening sugarcane, rice, peanuts and fruit trees, while the Great Plains wheat...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Overnight commodity trading slipped, with corn briefly rallying before profit‑taking set in. Energy markets softened after Israel and Lebanon announced a 10‑day cease‑fire, though the truce is seen as fragile. Ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran keep oil...
Gold Daily Call for April 17th, 2026
Gold is trading sideways in a narrow band, with the key resistance at USD 4,805 and support at USD 4,780. A decisive break above the resistance could lift the price toward USD 4,830‑4,845 and eventually the 50‑day moving average near USD 4,892. Conversely, a...
Coffee: Record Brazil Supply Caps the Recovery and Resumes the Downtrend
Brazil’s record 2026/27 arabica harvest is pressuring prices lower, capping the modest recovery seen earlier this year. Export data show a 31% YoY drop in March shipments, while forecasts peg output at 66‑76 million bags, expanding the global surplus to...
Surreal Markets
Equities are soaring to fresh record levels while gold and silver remain largely unchanged, with gold near $4,785 an ounce and silver around $79 an ounce. Both COMEX contracts show minimal open interest, indicating thin speculative liquidity, and price movements...
Cocoa: Demand Hope Meets Supply Reality
New York cocoa opened near a five‑week low before Malaysia’s Q1 2026 grindings jumped 8.7% YoY, lifting prices to a one‑and‑three‑quarter month high. Ivorian producers responded by more than doubling April forward sales, using the rally as a hedging window...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 17 April 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR), Zimbabwe's official gold buyer, released its April 17, 2026 buying rates for gold by purity and weight. The schedule lists prices from $136.56 to $144.15 per gram, equivalent to $4,246‑$4,483 per ounce, with the highest cash price reserved...
Rare Earths 2026 Outlook
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Rare Earths 2026 Outlook warns that geopolitical friction, heightened defense budgets, and export controls are fragmenting the rare‑earth market. China’s dominance is being challenged as governments seek alternative sources for magnet‑critical materials like neodymium‑praseodymium (NdPr). While new projects...
Video: Oil Shortage Shock Breaking The System + Silver Market Shortage
In a recent interview, Dunagun Kaiser of Liberty & Finance warns of an imminent oil supply crunch that could destabilize global markets. He links the shortage to geopolitical tensions and under‑investment in upstream infrastructure, suggesting a cascade effect on transportation,...