This IMHO is the most important post of the month. Read it, reread it, then take notes. RULES OF ENGAGEMENT RULES OF ENGAGEMENT RULES OF ENGAGEMENT Why was @secwar able to hermetically seal the southern border, eliminate crime in DC, arrest Maduro, and sink the entire Iranian Navy with a fraction of the casualties that “experts” claimed it would cost? Because he did not include allies and academics. Why is this critically important? Because in previous wars they all handcuffed our warfighters with ROEs. Bookcases in the Pentagon and CENTCOM overflowing with them. Going in with the element of surprise and shackling our forces to just one ROE, American rule of law, gave our side an overwhelming advantage. But… We just experienced the biggest war I’ve seen since I joined this app in 2007 and I’m not talking about Iran. It wasn’t a kinetic war. It was a war over academia and European control of ROEs. @CynicalPublius and @DataRepublican got absolutely hammered but held their ground. @RadioFreeTom and the other talking heads had enormous power over how the minds of admirals and generals are formed. They had enormous influence via think tanks and meetings with allies over what’s acceptable in war and what isn’t. And they were able to throttle opinion via displays of outrage on TV and articles in the Atlantic. To use a maritime analogy, those ocean racing speedboats have two captain’s chairs. One is the helm and the other is the throttles. The helmsman can only steer port or starboard, but the throttleman has forward and reverse on both the port and starboard propellers. Guess which job is most important? Pull too far ahead of the enemy and they pull back speed. Fall behind and they push full ahead. Too often they push full ahead just as the boat is descending into the trough of a wave. In our military the commander in chief decides the race time and location. The combatant commander steers the course. The media, allies, and the think tank “experts” are the throttle. And they are absolutely losing their minds because Trump has removed them from the throttles. This not only sucks away their power but their lucrative speaking engagements and book deals. Nobody is going to pay big bucks to hear a washed-up Naval War College professor speak. They will pay the throttleman. So Tom and friends are losing their minds and going on MSNBC and CNN to tell you all about how terrible this war is going. What they are really saying is: this is a disaster because I was not consulted. Put me back on the throttles. Except it isn’t a disaster. Go read those think tank and war college reports. How many deaths did they predict in a war against Iran? Not one predicted this few casualties in week three, or this many military targets destroyed. Tom and friends are telling you this war is a disaster, but by their own metrics it’s a stunning success. Ask yourself why that is.

With conflicts & threats escalating in multiple theatres - Can the UK adapt its air & space power resources to meet the challenges? Analysis #avgeek #NATO https://t.co/vB6s61ktZ3 https://t.co/MEZDMDGcrf
Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko says Trump has invited him to Mar-a-Lago to discuss a "big deal" with the US. This would presumably bring his country in from the cold after years of sanctions over his repressions and help for Russia's invasion of...

Cybersecurity scales with process + templates 🔐 Key docs every org needs: 🛡️ InfoSec: incident logs, access matrix, data classification 🌐 Network: DDoS plan, VPN/NAC logs, patch schedule ☁️ Cloud: config baseline, IR log, backup testing, asset inventory 🧩 AppSec: secure coding checklist, SAST logs,...
🚨 THE MARKET IS ONE ISLAND AWAY FROM RELIEF AND CHAOS US is quietly considering lifting Iran sanctions but behind the scenes? There's talk of something far more aggressive. And it all comes down to one tiny island in the Persian Gulf...
AI is already making online crimes easier. It could get much worse. | MIT Technology Review https://t.co/OOi3OhIPMa
Ex-president Dmitry Medvedev and Viktor Medvedchuk, Putin's favorite Ukrainian, have written a long article arguing Russia's "new regions" had the right to hold "referendums." That Russia's army had already annexed them from Ukraine is glossed over... https://t.co/06WkWbT190
“Drones and Urban Warfare in Ukraine,” the latest episode of my @WarInstitute podcast is out. I sit down with Dr. Anthony Tingle who just returned from his 9th research trip to Ukraine to discuss the evolution of drones and the different...
Separately, Germany is building its own version of the NSA. Germany's intelligence service is vastly expanding what has to date been a small section. https://t.co/v3wcztzBqI
Germany to ease weapons export restrictions for 6 months to support Gulf states & Ukraine, according to @BR24. Previously, every single transaction had to be approved, now focus on reporting requirements.
President Trump's Iran strategy has what the Forever Wars never did: having the Army take a backseat to naval and airpower.
Online bot traffic will exceed human traffic by 2027, Cloudflare CEO says | TechCrunch https://t.co/WGWoAMpWVy
Joined the great @AudieCornish @CNN this morning. We talked about how Iran’s asymmetric capabilities could make the risks of a worst case scenario real: US boots on the ground, a shooting war in the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices...
It’s amazing to me how many resources must be devoted to geopolitical strategy, intelligence gathering, and war planning in the US and Russia; and yet the two most high-profile wars of the last five years involve a military superpower attempting...
On the one hand, the US is considering lifting sanctions on Iran's oil. On the other, the US e is considering invading Kharg. It's one or the other. Either the US understands the MAD dynamic at play with energy flows...

Russia is taking what they've learned on the battlefield in the Ukraine War and sharing that with Iran. This is not a new strategy for the Russians, but it is already spelling trouble for the US. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/8OrxIIE2pk #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/R8FpGDhPFq
Middle East energy crisis: Qatar: $20B revenue loss from ther facilities being hit. CEO of Qatar energy said it would take 3 years to fix. Dep of War needs $200B to fund Iran war. Irans facilities have also been hit. Trump says “It will...
The gist of @chamath's question for Jensen Huang was, if @AnthropicAI CEO, @DarioAmodei over-rotated on cautionary side. Jensen's answer is spot on and I 100% agree with such stance. "Warning is good, scaring is less good", Jensen added. Jensen Huang...
Really recommend this interview between @freddiesayers and energy expert @HelenHet20 where Helen lays out why markets may be wrong in assuming things will return to normal once Iran is neutralised. The chaos may be the strategy. And whichever way you...
The worst military aviation commentary of all time from the masses on X is the F-35 deal today. (Maybe outside of the India-Pakistan stuff) That’s really saying something.
The regime has spent years building alternative ways to export its crude, said Anas Alhajji, a global energy markets expert. There is evidence that the regime is beginning to use them. He said there is a false impression in the media...
Taiwan’s All-Hands-on-Deck Plan to Fend Off China—A civil-defense movement gains momentum across the self-ruled island @joyuwang https://t.co/S54wvPxc54 https://t.co/S54wvPxc54
US-led takedown hit four botnets on 3M+ IoT devices; US–Germany–Canada plus tech partners curbed DDoS. IoT weakness sustains cyber risk. Trade insight: overweight cybersecurity leaders.— Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
A ‘smorgasbord’ of dangers present in aircraft carrier laundry facility that caught fire, expert says Read more at: https://t.co/SOKove4SBD Source - Stars and Stripes https://t.co/SOKove4SBD
Can confirm the deployment of the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and embarked 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit from California has been sped up to occur within days, per two officials. The task force, with about 4,500 sailors and Marines, is expected...
Story is old, Sutton did first story on it, we did a follow up in July: https://t.co/k3RPbeF32p

Iran won’t fold & Israel won’t stop, writes @gbrew24 Gulf security is damaged, possibly permanently. There’s no organic off-ramp—only a political one, and it runs through Washington. #IranWar #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #SystemicRisk #MiddleEast https://t.co/egfbcSbtHj
Not thrilled about the Iran war. Blown away by how well the military is executing but the decision to strike? Still… I’d storm Gallipoli or charge with the Light Brigade before voting to reopen the border & hand Mayor Pete the money...
I spoke with @janetonthemoney on @SIRIUSXM 132 about Iran: “The Iranians are using Muhammad Ali’s Rope-a-Dope strategy. In 1974, Ali absorbed the hits until Foreman was exhausted, then he delivered the knockout. This is what Iran is doing by depleting US-Israeli...

In case you haven't been following Le Monde's "Stravaleaks" reports — today the newspaper found the location of a French aircraft carrier because someone on board was logging their runs. https://t.co/vZjwJYppcn https://t.co/jt5Ob6kDT4
“The U.S. Pentagon budget for fiscal year 2026 is projected to reach approximately $961.6 billion, combining discretionary and mandatory funding. As of March 2026, proposals are being made to drastically increase this to over  $1.5 trillion for fiscal year 2027...
Space Force failed to issue a decay notice for VAST's Haven Demo, which was removed from orbit on Feb 5. It's still in the US satellite catalog as 'in orbit'.

On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by my good friend @matthewmreed to discuss how the hell the Iran War could actually plausibly end I’ve been pretty open in my belief that Trump needs to...
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has joined Trump in jawboning the energy market. In a press conference, he said that Israel won't attack anymore oil and gas targets in Iran, and also indicated that the war would be over faster...
Former CENTCOM Commander’s Candid Take On The Situation In The Strait Of Hormuz Retired Army General Joseph Votel offers unique insights into what it will take to wrestle the Strait of Hormuz from Iran's clutches. Exclusive: https://t.co/Mo6wlYCOtJ
“Where we are today in space warfare is very similar to where air superiority was in the 1930s.” https://t.co/vdPDSKfwkt

As an indication of how Iran is effectively playing its cards, its control of the Strait of Hormuz has forced Treasury Sec. Bessent to consider lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea. US SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL BACKFIRE. https://t.co/K8vL4AFi49
India Joining One Of Europe’s Fighter Programs Is Anything But Easy India has an urgent need for new combat aircraft but the European next-generation fighter offerings may not be the answer. https://t.co/0P9ONW9sY3

They've managed to push all of our major allies into the arms of our biggest adversary. Remarkable. https://t.co/MtFDnFiwkm
No serious person every said the F-35 was invincible. It was never sold as invincible. It was absolutely never designed to be invincible.
Once out of hundreds if not over a thousand sorties is pretty incredible. The odds will always eventually be in the enemy's favor. Allies lost aircraft almost daily against the Iraqis and weekly vs Serbia.

Hot takes on defense, industrial and AI sectors, as well government, from Sarah Hess, one of the few VCs who spends quality time between Silicon Valley and Washington D.C. https://t.co/p8btunQFd2
FRENCH NATO GEN. YAKOVLEFF: “.. [Trump] wants to share the political risk, not the military risk. .. He’ll drop us the minute it suits him. .. This isn’t the time to buy a promo ticket on the Titanic.” https://t.co/mEGqDFMbiq
My take in @BusinessInsider on the US-Israeli war against Iran: "The war planners in Washington, D.C. and Jerusalem apparently never understood that, when under attack, Iran would adopt Muhammad Ali's classic rope-a-dope strategy." https://t.co/Mw1R4PoFVd
The FBI appears to have seized the website of an Iran-linked hacker group that claimed responsibility for the only known significant cyberattack on a U.S. company since war between the countries started in February. https://t.co/B8Efsx5dD0
If genuine: A pop up attack with an IR sensor tracking the F-35 from the ground. Likely seen flying by day Iran has small IR SAMs derived from Soviet AAMs like R-27T/ET. Might also be Saqr-1/2 (358/359) loitering SAM Q: why didn’t F-35...
Hegseth wants Pentagon to dump Anthropic's Claude, but military users say it's not so easy https://t.co/JpevYXENl9
Meaningful development here as red lines are trying to be drawn around civilian infrastructure in the Gulf.
SCOOP: Marine Corps F-35Bs are set to deliver in Lot 17 without radars due to delays with the APG-85. Starting in Lot 18, all F-35s delivered to the U.S. military will be awaiting a radar. With @michaeldmarrow and @Diana_Stancy : https://t.co/6HIqluDOZx
On @BloombergTV with @kaileyleinz and @JMathieuReports, I walked through the maps and data behind a widening conflict, from the Strait of Hormuz to shifting Iranian strike patterns to damaged energy infrastructure. The takeaway: expect more escalation. https://t.co/MMeopdNbnK