The Week in Charts: GDP Growth, National Monetization Plan, IT Troubles
India’s economy grew 7.8% in the December quarter, a deceleration from 8.4% in the prior quarter, driven by weaker agriculture, non‑manufacturing output and reduced government spending. The statistics ministry’s revised base year projects FY25‑26 GDP at 7.6%, up from 7.1% a year earlier. The government unveiled a ₹17 trillion asset‑monetisation pipeline to boost fiscal resources, while IT stocks extended losses amid AI‑related earnings worries. Additional data highlighted contingency planning for crude oil imports and a moderation in salary hikes.
Trump, Iran and Geopolitical Mind Games
The Trump administration has escalated threats of military action against Iran while covert nuclear talks continue, and Tehran’s state media claim the pressure is a distraction linked to the Epstein scandal. In parallel, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit...
Pakistan-Afghanistan Live: Iran, EU Urge Dialogue Amid Deadly Clashes
Escalating clashes along the Pakistan‑Afghanistan border have intensified after Taliban‑aligned drones struck Pakistani military camps in Miranshah and Spinwam, prompting Islamabad to launch airstrikes on Afghan cities, including Kabul. The violence shatters the October cease‑fire and revives fears of a...
How America’s Action in Venezuela Guaranteed Guyana’s Oil Future
U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a January 2026 raid, removing the military threat to Guyana’s Essequibo region and clearing the path for the country’s oil expansion. Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil with Chevron and CNOOC,...
How Sanctions Can Help Stabilise Global Oil Supply
A G7‑backed price cap on Russian oil, introduced in 2022, is shown to boost near‑term extraction while curbing global oil prices and volatility. The cap neutralizes market power and reduces the option value of holding reserves, shifting producer incentives toward...
Who Runs Venezuela Now? Trump, Oil and the Fight for Power
In January 2026 the United States orchestrated the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, installing an interim administration that quickly aligned with Washington. President Donald Trump has since proclaimed control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, sealing new contracts with U.S....
PTT Eyes Partners Across Value Chain
Thai state‑owned energy group PTT Plc announced it will seek external partners across its value chain, aiming to sell stakes in its oil‑refining and petrochemical subsidiaries—Thai Oil, PTT Global Chemical and IRPC—to global investors. The company also plans to attract...
Beyond the Third Neighbor: Mongolia-US Ties in an Era of Great Power Competition
The United States and Mongolia marked 39 years of diplomatic ties while deepening their Strategic Partnership with flagship projects such as the $462 million MCC Water Compact and a USTDA‑backed aviation safety program. Mongolia’s recent accession to the Trump‑led Board of...
During Lula’s Visit, South Korea and Brazil Agree to Revive Mercosur Trade Talks
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited Seoul, upgrading the bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership and signing ten MOUs across AI, biotech, agriculture, health and security. The summit’s headline outcome was the decision to revive stalled Mercosur free‑trade...
GDP Revision May Widen FY27 Fiscal Deficit Ratio, Raise Debt Path Concerns
India's new series GDP data for FY26 shows nominal output ₹345.47 lakh crore, about 3.3% below the budget’s estimate. This revision pushes the FY27 fiscal‑deficit ratio to roughly 4.46% of GDP, up from the projected 4.31%, and lifts the FY27 debt‑to‑GDP ratio...
GDP Revision Trims FY26 Size to ₹345 Lakh Crore; $4 Trillion Mark May Slip
India’s nominal GDP for FY 2025‑26 has been revised down to ₹345 lakh crore, a 3.3 % cut from the earlier ₹357 lakh crore estimate. In dollar terms this puts the economy at roughly $3.79 trillion, postponing the $4 trillion milestone to a later fiscal year. The downgrade...
China: Policy Mix Guides 2026 Growth Path – UOB
UOB analyst Ho Woei Chen projects China’s 2026 real GDP growth at 4.7%, with the National People’s Congress likely setting a target range of 4.5‑5%. Inflation is expected to stay low, with a CPI target near 2% and actual inflation around 0.9%....
How to Deter Chinese Aggression Against Taiwan, with Rep. John Moolenaar
In a February 27 2026 Atlantic Council podcast, Rep. John Moolenaar, chairman of the House Select Committee on China, argued that deterring Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait is a core U.S. national‑security interest. He discussed the economic stakes of the U.S.–China rivalry...
CPF Confident for 2026 After Profit Surge
Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF) posted a net profit of 25.2 billion baht for 2025, up 29% year‑on‑year, driven by stronger gross margins and cost controls. Total sales fell 2% to 571 billion baht as a stronger baht weighed on overseas earnings, though...
2 Olympic Gold Medalists Show the Mixed Results of China’s Efforts to Bring Back Diaspora Talent
China’s municipal government paid Olympic skiers Eileen Gu and Beverly Zhu a combined $6.6 million in 2025, highlighting Beijing’s renewed push to lure diaspora talent. The effort builds on the legacy of the Thousand Talents and Qiming programs, which offer generous...
Why the Concern over Capital Flows
The Reserve Bank of India introduced tighter rules on external commercial borrowings to curb volatility in the capital account, even as the current account remains stable. While gross foreign direct investment (FDI) has averaged $78 billion annually, equity repatriation has surged,...
EM-DM Convergence: A Secular Trade on Deglobalization
Bill Campbell argues that deglobalization is creating a secular convergence between emerging‑market and developed‑market sovereign debt. While investors remain fixated on U.S. policy, structural shifts have strengthened EM fiscal positions and left DM yields underpriced. This mispricing opens a yield‑enhancing,...
Did Indonesia Just Lock Itself Into an Energy Future It Can’t Afford?
Indonesia’s new trade agreement obliges the country to import $15 billion of U.S. oil and gas each year, contradicting President Prabowo Subianto’s pledge for energy self‑sufficiency. The deal was signed to sidestep tariffs that were later nullified, leaving Indonesia locked into...
One Month in, Can Honduras’ New President Put the Country on the Path to Lasting Economic Gains?
Honduras’ new president Nasry Asfura has launched a suite of early reforms focused on fiscal austerity, expanding the Temporary Import Regime and re‑joining the World Bank’s ICSID to boost investor confidence. His administration secured a meeting with former President Donald...
Merz in China: Germany Between De-Risking and Strategic Partnership
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz concluded a two‑day visit to China, pledging a comprehensive strategic partnership while emphasizing the need for de‑risking amid trade imbalances. He highlighted persistent overcapacity and urged Beijing to play a constructive role in curbing Russia’s war in...
China Eastern Airlines to Expand India Operations, Plans Mumbai-Shanghai Service From May
China Eastern Airlines will launch a Mumbai‑Shanghai service in May, operating four weekly flights with an Airbus A330. The carrier also plans to revive its Kunming‑Kolkata route for the summer season. Its Shanghai‑Delhi flight, upgraded to a daily schedule, is...
The Future of Japan’s Regional Banks: Demographics, Mergers, and a Tight Market
Japan’s regional banks, once pillars of local growth, now face shrinking deposits and borrowers as the nation records its 16th consecutive year of population decline. Consolidation is accelerating, highlighted by the 2025 Aomori Bank‑Michinoku Bank merger that now controls about...
PM Modi Urges India Inc to Step up Investment in Infrastructure and Innovation
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking at a post‑Budget webinar, urged India Inc to dramatically increase investment in infrastructure and innovation. He highlighted a ten‑fold rise in public capital expenditure over the past 11 years, from roughly ₹2 lakh crore to over ₹12 lakh crore,...
Angola Takes Centre Stage at ITB Berlin 2026: Political Gesture or Strategic Tourism Play?
Angola will headline the opening gala of ITB Berlin’s 60th edition on 2 March 2026, using the platform to unveil its new tourism brand “Visit Angola – The Rhythm of Life.” The event will host 700‑800 high‑level guests, showcasing Angolan culture,...
China Is Playing the Long Game over Iran
China is maintaining a cautious diplomatic stance toward Iran despite a 25‑year strategic partnership and its role as Tehran’s primary oil buyer, accounting for over 80% of Iranian exports in 2025. Beijing publicly urges restraint and dialogue while opposing Iran’s...
India’s Fiscal Deficit Touches ₹9.8 Lakh Crore in April–January
India’s fiscal deficit for April‑January 2026 hit ₹9.8 lakh crore, about 63 % of the government’s full‑year estimate. Net tax receipts climbed to ₹20.94 lakh crore, while non‑tax revenue rose to ₹5.57 lakh crore. Total government outlays increased to ₹36.9 lakh crore, with capital expenditure reaching ₹8.4 lakh crore. The widening...
Capital Markets as Pillar for Vietnam S Double Digit Growth
Vietnam aims double‑digit economic growth, but banks face loan‑to‑deposit caps and high debt ratios, limiting credit expansion. Capital markets are positioned to provide long‑term funding, improve transparency, and diversify financing sources. By the end of 2025 the stock market topped...
UBS AM Lists Two India-Focused ETFs on London Stock Exchange
UBS Asset Management has listed two India‑focused UCITS ETFs on the London Stock Exchange. The MSCI India SF ETF uses synthetic replication to track the MSCI India Total Return Index with a 0.15% total expense ratio. The MSCI India Universal...
A Revitalized US Indian Ocean Strategy Cannot Ignore Africa
The article argues that the United States’ Indo‑Pacific strategy is incomplete because it largely ignores the western Indian Ocean and Africa, where China has established a growing military footprint, notably its base in Djibouti and expanding ties in Mauritius and...
US Missile Deliveries to Philippines Are Pointless and Escalatory
The United States announced plans to deploy additional advanced missiles in the northern Philippines, positioning them as a deterrent against Chinese aggression near Taiwan and the South China Sea. Washington argues that mobile, land‑based systems complicate any Chinese offensive and...
Global Funds Return to India as Earnings Outlook Improves
Global funds are pouring back into Indian equities, buying about $2.1 billion of shares in February – the strongest monthly inflow in eight months. The rebound follows a record outflow in 2025 and is driven by a newly signed US‑India trade...
Energy Insiders Podcast: China’s Clean Energy Surge Reshapes Coal, Oil and the Grid
China’s clean‑energy surge is reshaping its energy landscape, with record solar installations and a 30% jump in wind capacity driving more than a third of the nation’s economic growth. Lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta highlighted that renewable build‑out now outweighs traditional...
The EU's Path to Service Growth and Clean Tech
The EU can boost growth by deepening single‑market integration for high‑value services and by accelerating clean‑tech investments. While the United States pursues protectionist manufacturing policies and retreats from climate commitments, it still enjoys a large services surplus that could wane....
Following Purge, Kyrgyz President Faces Calls to Ease up on Repressive Measures
President Sadyr Japarov orchestrated a sweeping purge in early February, sidelining security chief Kamchybek Tashiev and removing several ministers, regional mayors and parliamentary deputies. He also curbed the power of the GKNB, arresting its Bishkek head and announcing a new...
From Tariffs to Trade Flows: Diversion Effects and China’s Exports to the EU
U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have coincided with a near‑10% year‑on‑year rise in China’s exports to the EU during 2025, but the surge began before the tariff hike and has not accelerated since. A difference‑in‑differences analysis of over 3,000 product...
DFC Reauthorization Is Here: The Good, the Bad, and the Next Steps for Connectivity
The U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) received a major re‑authorization embedded in the FY2026 NDAA, boosting its contingent liability limit to $205 billion and expanding geographic eligibility for ICT projects. The bill creates a $5 billion equity revolving fund—though unfunded—and grants new...
U.S., Iran Make ‘Significant Progress’ in Nuclear Talks, Mediator Says
U.S. and Iranian officials held a third indirect nuclear round in Geneva, with Omani mediator Badr al‑Busaidi reporting "significant progress" and promising technical talks in Vienna next week. Tehran floated a framework to suspend enrichment for three to five years...
U.S. Military Buildup Casts Shadow Over Iran Talks
The United States and Iran held a third round of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, with Omani mediation reporting significant progress and technical discussions slated for Vienna next week. Simultaneously, Washington has launched its largest Middle East military buildup since...
How China Is Betting Cheap AI Will Get the World Hooked on Its Tech
China is accelerating a strategy to flood the market with low‑cost AI tools, aiming to make its platforms indispensable worldwide. ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0, a text‑to‑video generator, exemplifies this push, while Chinese labs have been accused of harvesting OpenAI‑Claude responses through...
To Deliver Speed to Exporters Customs Rules Must Be Recast: Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava
Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava urged a fundamental recasting of India’s customs rules to deliver speed and certainty for exporters. He highlighted that expanding trade volumes, deeper global value‑chain integration, and a booming digital commerce ecosystem demand more efficient, transparent procedures....
New Income Tax Regime: Monthly TDS Returns, HRA Tax Rule Recast on Wish List
The Indian government is preparing to shift Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) filing from a quarterly to a monthly cadence as part of the new income‑tax regime slated for April 1. A parallel proposal seeks to overhaul house‑rent allowance (HRA) exemptions,...
India and Israel Sign Tech and Cyber Security Pacts During Modi's Trip
During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit, India and Israel signed multiple agreements to deepen cooperation in technology and cybersecurity. The pacts create a joint innovation fund, enable real‑time cyber‑threat intelligence sharing, and launch collaborative projects in artificial intelligence, quantum...
India's Gen X Pegged to Consume $500 Billion Worth of Goods, Services by FY30: RedSeer
India’s Generation X is projected to spend over $500 billion on goods and services by FY 30, according to RedSeer. The cohort’s spending will be led by preventive healthcare ($73 billion, 17% CAGR) and nutraceuticals ($20 billion, 25% CAGR). Premiumisation will also drive growth in...
Welcome Words
Bruegel and the India International Centre hosted a multi‑day forum in Brussels to dissect the newly signed EU‑India Free Trade Agreement and its broader strategic implications. Sessions covered global challenges such as climate change, AI governance, and shifting trade dynamics,...
Food Processing Minister Paswan Raises Concerns Regarding ‘False Narrative’ Against Processed Food by Influencers
India’s Food Processing Minister Chirag Paswan warned that social‑media influencers are propagating a false narrative that processed foods are unhealthy, harming industry growth. Speaking at the ANVESH‑2026 conference, he urged a coordinated effort, including a national campaign and influencer partnerships,...
India's Energy Demand to Surpass US by 2040s and China by 2060s, Report Reveals
Shell India’s new scenarios sketch projects that India’s total energy demand will outpace the United States in the 2040s and overtake China by the 2060s, driven by rapid economic and population growth. The report shows the fossil‑fuel share in the...
Armenia’s Nuclear Choice Carries Heavy Debt Trade-Offs, Says GlobalSource
Armenia is negotiating a U.S.-backed small modular reactor (SMR) program that could add up to 30% of GDP to its public debt in a worst‑case scenario. The $9 billion figure reflects a sovereign‑guaranteed loan rather than direct foreign investment, contrasting with...
India, Israel FTA: Next Round of Talks in May
India and Israel will reconvene for the next round of free‑trade agreement negotiations in May 2026, following a constructive first round held during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit. The initial talks covered goods, services, digital trade, rules of origin,...
Government Panel Said to Review Future of Key GM Food Crop
India’s ministerial panel will examine field trials of a genetically modified rapeseed (mustard) variety, a step that could reshape the country’s cautious stance on GM food crops. The review comes as the Supreme Court prepares to revisit a pending case...
China and Iran Queue up to Copy Belarus-Russia Regional Blueprint, Lukashenko Claims
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced that both China and Iran have expressed interest in replicating the Belarus‑Russia Union State's region‑to‑region cooperation framework. The declaration came during the Supreme State Council in Moscow, co‑chaired by Vladimir Putin, as the Union State...