Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The episode examines the interim U.S.-India trade deal announced in February 2026, which cuts U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18% and obliges India to cease Russian oil imports in favor of U.S. energy supplies. It traces the deal’s origins in the tariff wars of the Trump administration, highlighting how punitive duties crippled Indian exports and spurred a diplomatic reset. The conversation also explores the broader Indo‑Pacific strategic dimension, noting how the agreement dovetails with U.S. and Indian efforts to counter China, diversify supply chains, and coordinate export controls. Guest analyst Dr. Ananya Rao, a senior fellow on South Asian trade policy, explains the economic impact for Indian exporters and the geopolitical calculus behind the tariff truce.
The episode examines the increasingly fraught relationship between Mexico’s President‑elect Claudia Sheinbaum and former U.S. President Donald Trump, focusing on five intersecting issues: Mexico’s humanitarian aid and oil shipments to Cuba, alleged ties between Venezuela’s Maduro regime and Mexico’s Morena...
Professor Eric Hilt’s 2026 paper traces the evolution of financial crises over two centuries, highlighting how regulatory regimes and banking structures shaped their frequency and character. Early crises were often sparked by banking panics, while the post‑World War II regulatory era...
The latest "Talk Your Book" episode breaks down the three A’s shaping the U.S. economy—asset prices, artificial intelligence, and the affluent consumer. It highlights a widening market breadth and offers a framework for valuing the world’s largest firms. The discussion...
The episode explains that China’s official macro debt ratio hit a record 302.3% of GDP in 2025, driven primarily by government borrowing while household and private company debt fell. It highlights the real‑estate crisis as the catalyst that halted household...
The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, enacted in 2021, created a rebuttable presumption that Xinjiang‑origin goods are barred from the U.S. market. U.S. Customs data show a sharp drop in UFLPA‑related detentions, from roughly $1.58 billion in 2023 and $1.40 billion in...
The episode breaks down the ASEAN Inc. portfolio—a $1 million, equally weighted allocation across seven U.S.-listed ETFs covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and a regional ASEAN‑40 fund—and shows it delivered a 21.3% annualized total return through February 2026, beating...
The episode dissects Thailand’s surprise February 8, 2026 election, where Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai party captured nearly 200 seats, shifting the country’s foreign policy toward deeper engagement with China while prompting a tougher U.S. response. It highlights the immediate implications for...
The latest Elliott Wave analysis notes that EUR/USD slipped during the first week of February 2026, testing the 1.1800 support zone. While the pair remains above this level, bullish sentiment persists, suggesting the wave count may still be in an...
In this week’s Oil Context Weekly, the host reviews flat crude prices slipping below $68 a barrel after geopolitical chatter between the U.S. and Iran, while noting a modestly backwardated term structure with a "smiley‑faced" futures curve extending to 2027....
In this episode, the host examines the current state of China's grain market, focusing on its ability to meet President Trump's promised soybean purchases of 8 million metric tons (294 million bushels) and the anticipated 25 million metric tons of new crop. The...
The Friday Reading List for February 6, 2026 surveys a wave of political and security developments across Latin America, focusing on the United States' renewed pressure on Cuba, shifting dynamics in Brazil, Costa Rica, and Mexico, and the fallout from...
The episode explains how a shift in global liquidity, driven by the Federal Reserve’s move toward quantitative tightening, is ending the era of easy money and causing risk assets like Bitcoin and high‑growth tech stocks to falter. It highlights the...
The article revisits the classic small‑country tariff model, contrasting it with the large‑country framework that allows an importer to affect world prices. It explains how a sufficiently small tariff could improve a large importer’s terms of trade, creating an "optimal...
In this episode LoRosha analyzes the February 4 Asian market session, highlighting a 1.57% rise in the KOSPI driven by Samsung Electronics breaking the 169,000 KRW mark and reaching a $720 billion market cap. He argues that despite heavy foreign net...
The episode examines the current geopolitical interregnum—a transitional period between the fading Pax Americana and an as‑yet undefined new world order. It highlights how U.S. actions in Venezuela and threats to Greenland have destabilized NATO, prompting speculation about a future...
Asian equity markets slumped after President‑Trump‑appointed Fed nominee Kevin Warsh signaled hawkish policy, prompting a broad risk‑off that also lifted the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the renminbi hit a 52‑week high at 6.94 per dollar even as commodity futures and semiconductor...
In this brief update, the host explains how the Federal Reserve’s recent liquidity injections have compressed the SOFR‑FF basis, pushing overnight SOFR rates to just a few basis points below the interest on reserve balances (IORB). Major banks, led by...
The episode examines the paradox of hydrocarbon utilization in the Middle East, highlighting how oil is still burned for electricity at massive scales while natural gas remains underdeveloped and heavily flared. It contrasts the region’s wasteful practices with global trends...
The episode “Assisted Thinking” dissects the stark contrast between China’s massive reliance on coal—accounting for 58% of its primary energy in 2024—and the Western media narrative that paints Beijing as a climate leader. By examining data from the Statistical Review...
The U.S. dollar is in a consolidating phase, hovering around JPY158.6 after a brief push toward JPY159.5, as Japanese authorities intensify verbal warnings of possible market intervention. In North America, traders await U.S. PPI, retail sales data and comments from...
