Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
In a 6‑3 ruling, the Supreme Court held that President Trump lacked authority under the International Emergency Economic Power Act to impose sweeping tariffs, invalidating duties that had reached 145% on certain Chinese imports. The decision dismantles a cornerstone of the administration’s trade strategy and raises immediate questions about refunding billions already collected. The White House signaled it may turn to other statutes, such as Section 232 or a proposed 10‑15% global tariff under Section 122. Experts warn the legal shift could trigger a rapid influx of goods and affect freight markets.
South Korea’s Korea e‑Sports Association released a study quantifying the economic impact of esports events using its new Multi‑layered Esports Economic Impact (MEEI) model. The analysis shows the 2023 League of Legends World Championship generated a production inducement effect of...
The Supreme Court, in a 6‑3 ruling, invalidated the sweeping tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump, finding that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president authority to levy tariffs. The justices applied the major...
The Federal Reserve’s January FOMC minutes confirm that inflation remains entrenched in the United States, contrary to earlier optimism. Core consumer‑price index rose 0.3% month‑over‑month, keeping annual inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. The minutes show policymakers acknowledging persistent price...
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations. This marks a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% surge recorded in the preceding quarter and is the slowest expansion since...
In this episode, Doomberg examines the recent surge of interest in copper, dissecting whether the metal is on the brink of a genuine supercycle driven by supply constraints and booming demand, or if the hype is largely speculative. He outlines...
The European Commission is repositioning itself as a “Geopolitical Commission,” aiming to reclaim control over technology regulation. The strategy, outlined in Benjamin Farrand’s book *Geopolitical Union*, targets standards, micro‑chip access, online platform oversight, industrial data, and artificial intelligence. By blending...
The MacroBusiness weekend briefing spotlights a series of global and domestic macro developments. In the United States, the Federal Reserve injected $18.5 billion of liquidity, complied with a White House‑requested rate check, and saw sub‑prime unsecured loan balances hit record levels...
The episode reviews a recent rally in gold and silver prices, noting modest gains in Europe and unusually low trading volumes on the U.S. Comex market due to a holiday. It highlights the scant speculative interest and low open interest...
The U.S. restaurant sector enters 2026 facing a steep cost squeeze, with food and labor expenses 30% above 2019 levels. Operators have raised menu prices 31% since 2020, yet profit margins remain tight at just 3‑5%. Consumer demand is shifting...
Milton Friedman argued that free immigration clashes with a welfare state, but his stance was more nuanced: he viewed illegal immigration as beneficial because it limits immigrants' access to public benefits. The article notes that most U.S. immigrants are of...
Recent academic research sharpens the tools investors use to forecast long‑term returns and market risk. Rui Ma et al. show that a market‑cap‑weighted Component CAPE ratio aligns prices and earnings, delivering out‑of‑sample R² above 50 %. Javier Estrada confirms that valuation multiples...
Afghanistan has re‑emerged as a venue for great‑power competition below the threshold of war, with China pursuing cautious economic engagement focused on mineral extraction and limited infrastructure projects. U.S. analysis shows Chinese contracts have underperformed and remain exploratory, leaving a...
In this emergency interview on BFM 89.9 Malaysia, The Macro Butler warned that a combination of rising oil prices and increasing unemployment could derail the Federal Reserve’s planned rate cuts in 2026, bolster the US dollar, and pressure retail stocks...
Australia’s flash PMI for February showed a deceleration, with output and new orders slipping across manufacturing and services after a vigorous start to the year. Despite the slowdown, business sentiment stayed upbeat, and employment rose sharply as firms added staff...
Government and regulatory decisions have driven administered prices—electricity, water, gas, council rates and public transport fares—up 7.55% in the last calendar year. This rise is roughly double the overall CPI inflation rate. Because administered prices are largely insulated from monetary...
The latest Bespoke Institutional "Closer" highlights a shift in Federal Reserve rhetoric, suggesting a softer stance on monetary policy. It also points to a widening disconnect between market breadth and price performance, while flagging renewed stress in the repo market....
The U.S. Treasury’s latest 30‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) auction posted a real yield of 2.473%, the second‑highest level in the past 16 years and the highest since the series was relaunched in February 2010. Demand was strong, with the...
George Friedman argues that the United States should not be blamed for Europe’s security dilemma, emphasizing that both sides feel betrayed. He notes that Europe, a patchwork of nearly 50 nations, has the economic capacity to defend itself but lacks...
Fed Governor Stephen Miran praised the appointment of Kevin Warsh, noting his hawkish reputation could give the Fed more credibility and make larger rate cuts easier. He highlighted systematic biases in inflation measurement—particularly portfolio‑management services and lagged shelter data—that have...
The episode opens with a market snapshot and escalating US‑Iran tensions before diving into earnings from DoorDash (DASH), Booking Holdings (BKNG), eBay (EBAY), Carvana (CVNA) and FIG. DoorDash reported strong 4Q25 growth in gross order value and EBITDA but missed...
The Gordie Howe Bridge, a Canada‑financed toll crossing linking Detroit and Ontario, is slated to open this year as an alternative to the congested Ambassador Bridge. President Trump has threatened to block the launch unless the U.S. federal government acquires...
The episode examines how China’s historic social contract—economic prosperity and stability in exchange for political passivity—has begun to unravel, especially as the middle class faces a real‑estate crisis and young graduates confront stagnant wages. It links the ancient "Mandate of...
Russia’s deputy foreign minister and BRICS Sherpa Sergey Ryabkov publicly refuted claims that the bloc is evolving into a security or collective‑defence organization. He clarified that recent naval exercises off South Africa were conducted by individual member states, not a...
The article argues that quantitative easing and expansive fiscal policies have propelled equities while leaving long‑duration bonds lagging, with gold emerging as the top performer since 2022. Chart data shows the S&P 500 up over 700% since 2010, whereas TLT...
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has undergone dramatic swings since its 1914 inception, expanding modestly for decades before exploding after the 2008 financial crisis. Between 2008 and 2022 the sheet grew from roughly $0.9 trillion to over $9 trillion, driven by large‑scale...
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that January 2026 saw a modest net increase of 18,000 jobs, with full‑time employment rising by 50,500 and part‑time employment falling by 32,700. Total employment reached 14,703,800 and monthly hours worked climbed to 2,013 million, while...
National Australia Bank CEO Andrew Irvine warned that Australia has hit "peak Australia," signalling that without a productivity boost the economy will stagnate. Real wages fell for the first time in two years, underscoring the pressure on living standards. Irvine...
Citco’s January 2026 hedge‑fund update shows a continued winning streak, with the group’s funds delivering a 0.9% weighted‑average return, marking ten consecutive positive months. Global Macro strategies posted the strongest performance at 6.5%, while smaller funds (<$200 m) outperformed larger peers....
U.S. banks posted robust Q4 consumer‑loan growth, but all warned that a proposed 10% credit‑card rate cap could restrict credit access and hurt borrowers. JPMorgan’s credit‑card revenue fell short of forecasts by 7.6% and the bank now expects card‑loan growth...
The equal‑weighted S&P 500 continues a well‑defined uptrend, indicating intermediate‑term bullish momentum. In contrast, the broader, cap‑weighted U.S. equity averages remain confined to tight trading ranges, reflecting short‑term indecision. Meanwhile, the VVIX—volatility of the VIX—has stayed above the 100 threshold, underscoring...
The Federal Reserve’s February 2026 FOMC minutes reveal that most participants remain uneasy about inflation, which is still above the central bank’s 2% target. The minutes signal a willingness to raise rates again if price pressures are not curbed, underscoring...
‘No landing’ has emerged as the prevailing global macro outlook, suggesting the economy will remain in a state of indefinite uncertainty rather than a clear recession or recovery. The author points to persistent inflation, aggressive AI investment, and AI‑induced job...
India's navy has begun seizing shadow‑fleet oil tankers within its exclusive economic zone, capturing three vessels since early February. The shadow fleet, a network of roughly 1,000 de‑commissioned tankers, moves 3‑4 million barrels of sanctioned crude daily from Russia, Iran...
The TrendInvestorPro page titled “S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500 Breadth Models – Yields Spreads – Fed Policy” is restricted to subscribers, offering no publicly available data or analysis. The site prompts users to log in or join, indicating...
The episode reviews key developments across Asia, highlighting China's 2026 economic agenda focused on domestic demand and tech self‑reliance, U.S. accusations of a secret Chinese nuclear test, and the PLA's push to overhaul English training. It also covers political shifts...
The article examines how Azerbaijan’s new rail, gas and power corridor through Armenia is reshaping the Caucasus‑Central Asia nexus, while the United States seeks a 74% stake in the infrastructure for five decades. Moscow and Tehran face pressure to intervene...
The US Treasury will publish its latest International Capital (TIC) data, showing foreign investors holding a record $9.36 trillion of Treasury securities. China’s holdings slipped to roughly $683 billion, the lowest level since 2008, while Japan remains the top holder with about...
USDCAD is climbing as Canada’s latest inflation data came in below expectations, reviving expectations of further Bank of Canada rate cuts. The softer CPI reading narrows the interest‑rate gap with the United States, making the U.S. dollar more attractive and...
USD/JPY edged higher this week as traders anticipate the Bank of Japan’s continued policy normalization. The pair’s modest rise reflects expectations of incremental BOJ rate hikes and a narrowing US‑Japan interest‑rate gap. An Elliott Wave update highlights a key resistance...
The EUR/USD pair slipped modestly this week as markets anticipate Friday's core PCE inflation report. Traders are closely watching the hourly chart, which now displays a nascent corrective Elliott Wave formation. The update suggests the pair could test near‑term support...
The episode explains why global financial markets largely ignore Middle‑East geopolitical turmoil, despite oil price spikes of about 10% this year. It argues that diversified oil production outside the region and modest growth forecasts mean investors see limited macro‑economic impact...
The episode examines Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s remarks on Japan’s growing regional role and the backlash they provoked in China, set against escalating China‑Japan tensions and a recent diplomatic spat at the Munich Security Conference. It highlights how surveys...
The episode explains how the U.S. economy is diverging into two distinct regimes—one of robust growth and inflation resilience, the other of slowing activity and tighter monetary policy—and how this split is driving market rotations. It outlines the macro drivers...
U.S. Treasury yields opened modestly weaker on Tuesday after a volatile three‑day‑weekend, but steadied by mid‑morning. The 10‑year note rose to 4.06% before trading flat through the close, marking a calm finish despite earlier upside pressure. No fresh economic releases...
With the New START treaty lapsing on Feb. 5, 2026, the United States and Russia lost the last binding caps on their strategic nuclear forces. The article warns that the primary instability stems not from overt arsenal growth but from three...
U.S. Treasury bonds extended last week’s rally by a few basis points in early domestic trading, though the advance faded later in the session. Market participants attribute part of the prior week’s rise to defensive positioning ahead of a three‑day...
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two‑thirds majority in the lower house, giving Prime Minister Fumio Takahashi a strong personal mandate and near‑total legislative control. The win enables swift policy action, including the start of constitutional amendment proceedings to...
The episode outlines five ways AI will reshape geopolitical risk in Latin America: massive middle‑class job disruption as AI replaces outsourced service roles; a new extractive dependence on foreign data‑center investments that may boost the economy but keep profits abroad;...
Australia’s Reserve Bank highlighted an unexpected surge in private demand, driven largely by heightened household spending from the baby‑boomer cohort. The increase in consumer‑durable price growth reinforced this trend, prompting the RBA to raise the official cash rate by 0.25%....
