China's Mercantilist Squeeze Threatens Developing Economies
Important NEW paper @PIIE China's mercantilist squeeze on developing economies by @arvindsubraman @shoumitro_c Who really is harmed by China Shock 2.0
Markets Brace for Hotter US Inflation, Stocks Fall
🚨 US Inflation Report on Tap - Markets are bracing for a hotter inflation print: ⬇️ Stocks ⬇️ Gold ⬆️ USD ⬆️ Yields Here’s what everyone is watching 👇 CPI - MoM 0.6% forecast, 0.9% prior CPI - YoY 3.7% forecast, 3.3% prior CPI Core MoM -...
Micron May Test Yesterday’s Low or Drop Further
Will $MU hold yesterday’s low or do they shake the tree lower for memory/semi clues https://t.co/jy0eZY90d5
Dollar Weakens, Yields Rise: Loose Policy Warning
Dollar down, yields up. In normal times these are positively correlated. When they diverge and the currency weakens while bonds sell off, it's telling you policy is too loose. Japan has been ground zero for this dynamic. Watch closely to see...
Live Coaching: Picking Stocks with AI Power
We're LIVE with the team, coaching you through picking stocks in the modern era of AI and The Machine
China's Military Dominance and 2027 Taiwan Reunification Unaccounted
The hubris of Trump/Bessent IS China: “China leads in most military domains - and it's not even close” And China reunifying with Taiwan in 2027 is not priced in.
Trade Against Mr. Market's Mood, Not His Logic
Mr. Market has two moods: euphoria and despair. He never texts you when he's thinking clearly. Buffett's edge isn't intelligence. It's knowing which mood to trust — and which one to trade against. That's not genius. That's temperament.
More Wealth, Less Risk Appetite: The Paradox Explained
Most people believe having more wealth means you can take more risk. But the opposite is true. The more you have, the more it hurts to lose. My latest on the Risk-Wealth Paradox: https://t.co/C0PA5iPzwq
Low‑Inflation Era Ends; Global Debt Pressures Rise
For the decade before COVID, we were all convinced inflation would always be low and so interest rates would always be low too. That's over. I talked about the global debt overhang and how the UK isn't an outlier in...
Oil Funds Build Shorts Betting Hormuz Reopening Cuts Prices
Oil funds boost short positions anticipating re-opening of Strait Investors made few significant changes to their aggregate position across crude oil and refined fuels for the third week running as the ceasefire between the United States and Iran remained in place...
CPI Release Sparks Volatile Market—Trade Reaction, Not Forecast
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – May 12, 2026 🚨 CPI DAY is here 🔥📊 Markets get one of the biggest inflation reads of the month this morning with volatility expected right at 8:30AM. 📊 Economic Events: 🔹 CPI m/m (April): Exp. 0.6% vs Prior...
US Oil Boom Caps World Prices, Hikes US Gasoline
The emergence of the US as a major oil producer - and exporter - is an equilibrating force in the global shortfall. Good news is that this helps cap global oil prices. Bad news is there's less oil for domestic...
Buy Cheap High‑Yield Stocks Amid Market Overreaction
Buying 3 “dirt cheap” high-yield stocks as the market overreacts. ARCC, O, and EPR offer great income with upside as rates ease. Not betting on AI hype, just solid dividends. DividendInvesting
Ceasefire Uncertainty Dampens Risk, Lifts Dollar, Fuels Oil
Ceasefire is on "Life Support": Saps Risk Appetites, Buoys the Greenback: The uncertainty about the US-Iran fragile ceasefire, which President Trump has said is on “life support” is weighing on risk-taking appetites today. Brent and WTI are up over $3…...
Geopolitical Turmoil and Political Instability Drive Global Yield Surge
The rise in long-term gov't bond yields isn't about any one thing. There's unstable global geopolitics, with Iran the latest symptom. There's the collapse in politics as usual, with the UK in focus. All this pushes up 10y10y forward yields...
Wondering How Quickly Warrants Will Accelerate
Starting to wonder just how fast those warrants are going to get accelerated, happy problems in the eucalyptus tree
US Surplus Driven by Rising Refined Product Exports
The US imports crude (blue) and exports refined product (red), which is things like gasoline, heating oil and jet fuel. The sharp rise in the US' oil surplus is all about more refined product leaving the country, which helps mitigate...
Dealer Gamma Surge Mirrors 2021 Upside Momentum
Fascinating data from GS: “On March 27, dealer gamma positioning hit -$7.24bn – the 2nd most negative GEX print on record. Six weeks later, dealer gamma closed Friday at +$21.3bn, now the 8th highest positive GEX reading ever recorded. To put...
Silver Futures Break $83.84, Bulls Anticipate Further Rise
The move above $83.84 (4/17 HOD and matching the 12/29/2025 $83.77 HOD) in July Silver Futures has the Silver Bulls fired up again looking for a spike or grind higher. For me, the verdict is still out........ https://t.co/IXv9NqTS6C
USD Strength Amid Fragile Ceasefire Drags Markets Lower
$USD is bid. Fragility of ceasefire weighs on sentiment. Drags equities and bonds lower. PBOC set $USD fix at new multiyear low. Bessent and Japanese officials talk fx but $JPY falls to new 5-day low. US CPI on...
Gold, Silver Likely Enter Poor‑Performance Cycle After Rallies
Gold, Silver May Face a Typical Cycle: Years of Bad Performance Crude oil has been stuck in a range for about two decades and is approaching the upper end, which could be a guide for what to expect in gold and...
Most “Inflation Hedges” Fail Against Core Cost Spikes
Investors worry about #Inflation .. The industry knows it, and sells them a solution. The problem? Most assets sold as inflation hedges only protect against about 9% of your cost of living. New research finds that equities, gold, property funds and commodities...
Gold Poised for 1980‑Level Peak by 2026
A Peak Like 1980? Gold Is Leaning That Way Gold futures started trading in 1975, peaked near $873 an ounce in 1Q80 and did not breach that high until 1Q08. I see peak parallels in 2026. Full report on the Bloomberg here:...
Silver's 2026 Peak May Sustain for Years
Silver's 2026 High Could Endure for Years In transition over the years to more industrial commodity from money and store of value, silver may be more elastic than ever, and the 1Q price surge could mark a peaking process. Full report on...
Hungary Aims to Meet Euro Criteria by 2030
Hungary to meet euro criteria by 2030, new finance minister says https://t.co/AN0YZs31Z6 via @ZoltanSimonBbg https://t.co/4UELJl5uXJ
Most of Your Net Worth Tied to One Stock
You’re 41, Principal Engineer, $280k TC. Net worth just hit $1M. Breakdown: $40k 401k, $10k cash, $950k in unvested + vested company RSUs. You’re 95% in one stock. **Here’s the trap**:
UK Political Uncertainty Drives Gilts Yield to 5.10%
Uncertain British politics = another step up in UK government bond yields. (This morning's selloff is sizeable, pushing the 10-year yield to 5.10%.) #economy #Markets #Gilts #UKEconomy #bonds #uk
Oil Prices
What a great night of conversation w/the Midland Wildcat Committee The mood here is understandably more effusive than the rest of the country w/$WTI north of $100/barrel The Q: At what level of prices does enough demand get destroyed to temp the...
U.S. Abandons Efforts to Reform China, Plans Trade Cuts
.@bobdavis187: “The United States has given up trying to change China’s economy through outside pressure or inducements. Instead, the U.S. accepts the state-dominated Chinese system as it is, and will…look to cut trade deals within the new framework.” https://t.co/D50COlAlzy
S&P Soars While Banks and Dow Lag, Warning Sign
The S&P 500 is hitting new highs, but banking stocks and the Dow Jones aren't confirming the rally. This classic market divergence could signal an impending trend reversal or a much-needed correction. Will the rally broaden to include the laggards,...
Intentional Money Choices Outperform Perfection—Get Free Bundle
Being intentional with your money matters more than trying to be “perfect” with money. Small decisions add up. The women I work with are usually not reckless spenders. They make good money. But they still feel like their money disappears...
Norse Raiders' Tactics Reveal Microcap Investing Secrets
Here is a new presentation. What three centuries of Norse raiders teach us about microcap investing. https://t.co/Y2R74Vus9F
Oil Jumps 3.2% After Breakout Signal
OIL: inflates another +3.2% after the immediate-term TRADE Breakout Signal we gave you yesterday https://t.co/v8XVyzlCnt
Norway Stocks Rise 0.8% on Bullish Opening
NORWAY: stocks ramp +0.8% for us here on the open and remain Bullish TREND @Hedgeye https://t.co/1xdJeq9Sk5
Broad Market Weakness Amid Rising VIX and Tech Divergence
@thestreetpro Divergences Aplenty in Monday's Trading Monday's market advance had some conspicuous and worrisome divergences: * Market breadth was poor and leadership continued to narrow (even more noticeably than in the past few days) see below graph. * The VIX strengthened to 18.38...
Seeking Reliable Short‑Side Alpha Beyond Newsletter Sources
Where do you source your alpha from on the Short Side? Newsletter guys aren't that https://t.co/NufSCHkU4w
Asia Macro Shorts Counter Our Long Oil Bet
3 of our 9 Macro Shorts in ETF Pro are in Asia where they are Short of our Long Oil $BNO
UK Bond Yields Breakout Finally Arrives After Three Months
Macro Tourist Topic Of The Day = "UK Bond Yields" We've only been signaling this breakout for the last 3 months Go back to bed
MELI Commits to Moat‑building, Long‑term Growth Investments
“We prioritize investments that are most synergistic with our ecosystem and either deepen existing moats or create new ones. All of our investments are required to demonstrate a clear path to positive direct contribution under conservative assumptions, but we do...
Keep Cash Ready: Panic Fades, Strategy Persists
₹11 lakh crore investor wealth wiped out in just 4 sessions, With rising global tensions and market volatility, many investors are now asking: Should we follow Warren Buffett and keep cash ready? Fear is high in the market, but smart...
Gamma's Throttle Nearly Crushed SPY Bears Yesterday
Do you know where Gamma's Throttle is? It pushed $SPY Bears to the brink yesterday @t1alpha https://t.co/zfPNFKk7Tc
RST Meets Expectations, Valuation Improves, but Still Not Owned
#RST "in line with expectations". Looks like recovery ongoing under previous CEO. ShareScope has fwd p/e 10.3 falling to 9.2 and fwd Divvy 2.9% rising to 3.3%; not expensive. I don't hold.
Markets Slide; SPX Futures Test 8‑day Support
Mostly red arrows around the World as markets are allowed a down day. Europe and Asia lower $spx futures -29 as we see if 8day holds to keep current upper speed and composure or does it change a bit. ...
UK Faces Finance Crisis: Yields Spike, Pound Falls
The "Liz Truss moment" of 2022 has turned into the UK's political reality, with 30-year yields soaring to their highest levels since 1998 and the pound weakening. "No matter who is in power, no matter their political leaning, there does...
Steep Uptrends Yield Sharp Reversals: MELI Faces Downside
The longer and steeper the uptrend, the more violent the reversion when it finally breaks. $MELI has compounded at almost a 40% CAGR over almost two decades. The stock is in a 40% drawdown. I could see more downside here, even though I...
ECB Must Intervene if Iran War Endangers Price Stability
ECB must act if Iran war threatens price stability, Nagel says https://t.co/XRboBjnoxo via @jrandow https://t.co/eWSZmFGVoL
China Confident It Can Outmaneuver Trump on Key Policies
.@KennedyCSIS: “China’s leadership is genuinely confident about its ability to out-maneuver President Trump and gain the upper hand over the United States on China’s core foreign policy interests.” https://t.co/BeN9jhjaDK
Equity Allocation Peaks at Five-Year High, Biggest Shift Since 2020
"Equity allocation just hit its highest level in five years. April marked the biggest monthly shift since November 2020" State Street via Macro Ops
German Home Prices Up Nominally, Still Flat in Real Terms
Good Morning from Germany, where house prices are rising slightly again – but only in nominal terms. After adjusting for inflation, there is still little sign of a broad-based recovery. The picture is highly uneven. New-build prices are rising, partly...
UK Investors' Two‑month Nightmare Finally Hits Market
Literally the thing every UK investor has been worrying about for the past two months...