Alberto Naudon: Chile's Economic Outlook
Alberto Naudón highlighted that Chile’s 2025 economy outperformed expectations, with non‑mining growth near 3% and gross fixed capital formation rising about 7%. Inflation accelerated early in the year but fell faster than projected, positioning headline inflation around 3.5% and core at 3.3% by year‑end, with expectations anchored at the 3% target. The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 4.5%, reflecting a mildly contractionary stance as the real neutral rate hovers near 1.25%. Looking ahead, productivity, exchange‑rate dynamics and external risks will shape 2026’s outlook.
Xi Pushes Belt and Road Initiative Port Alliance Amid Iran War, Panama Canal Dispute
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans to establish an international port alliance under the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to link key maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Panama Canal. The proposal comes as China faces...
Global Funds Look to Malaysia as Iran War Shakes up Asian Assets
Global funds are turning to Malaysia as the Iran‑Russia conflict rattles Asian markets. The country’s political stability, current‑account surplus and status as one of the few net oil exporters in the region have limited equity outflows, keeping the KLCI near‑flat...
Armenia and Turkey Explore Boosting Energy Connectivity
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar met on the sidelines of an IAEA summit to explore electricity interconnection, nuclear cooperation, and natural‑gas links. The dialogue builds on Pashinyan’s “Real Armenia” agenda, which prioritises economic development...
Indonesia's Upstart Sovereign Fund Stumbles Through Turbulent Year
Indonesia’s newly created sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, has struggled to meet its ambitious goals in its first year. The fund sought private‑sector support through "Patriot bonds" to finance socially‑oriented projects aligned with President Prabowo Subianto’s agenda, but fundraising fell short...
The Iran War Is Roiling Commodities Far Beyond Oil
Since the third Gulf war erupted three weeks ago, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has immobilized roughly 10‑15 % of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude above $106 a barrel. President Donald Trump has ordered the largest-ever strategic reserve...
Moody’s Says a Recession Will Be Hard to Avoid if Oil Prices Stay Elevated for Even a Few More Weeks
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned that a sustained oil‑price spike—driven by the Iran conflict and a closed Strait of Hormuz—could push the U.S. into a recession. Moody’s machine‑learning recession model, which previously indicated a 49% chance, is expected to...
Inside Trump’s Economic Strategy, with EXIM Bank’s John Jovanovic
In a March 2026 Atlantic Council podcast, EXIM Bank chairman John Jovanovic outlined how the Trump administration’s economic strategy hinges on resilient, "free, fair, and functioning" supply chains. He highlighted the bank’s role in financing U.S. exporters amid heightened geopolitical...
The Gulf’s Expat El Dorado Faces a Costly Recovery After the War
The Gulf’s expatriate‑driven economies face a sharp shock after the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, with water desalination plants and key tourism infrastructure hit by Iranian attacks. The immediate fallout will hit tourism and aviation hardest, while financial services and data‑center projects risk...
AI Capital Is Flooding the World, with the GCC Emerging as the Next Hub
Artificial intelligence captured roughly $270 billion in venture capital in 2025, more than half of all global VC funding. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is emerging as a new AI hub thanks to abundant low‑cost energy, sovereign‑backed investment vehicles, and less...
Iran Conflict Sparks Risk, And Opportunity, For Egypt: CIB CEO Hisham Ezz Al-Arab
The Iran‑Israel conflict has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil above $100 per barrel and unsettling regional markets. In Egypt, the turmoil has sparked capital outflows, weakening the pound to a historic low of about 53 EGP per dollar....
Kroenig Interviewed on CNN on US Action in Iran
Matthew Kroenig, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center, was interviewed on CNN on March 13 to defend President Trump’s approach toward Iran. He claimed that recent U.S. actions, including expanded sanctions and calibrated military signaling, are deliberately weakening...
‘Made in America’ Should Accept Chinese Investment
The article argues that the United States should stop treating all Chinese capital as a security threat and instead allow limited, well‑structured Chinese investment in non‑sensitive sectors. It cites Trump’s “Made in America” agenda, which welcomes foreign money, and contrasts...
Mantashe Pushes Oil and Gas Drive as Global Tension Raises Fuel Price Risks
Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe warned that soaring global crude prices—now above $100 a barrel—expose South Africa’s reliance on imported fuel and urged a rapid acceleration of domestic oil and gas development. He highlighted significant offshore prospects in...
Uncle Sam Goes Mining in the Congo
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, together with Abu Dhabi’s ADQ and New York‑based Orion Resources, signed a non‑binding MOU to acquire a 40% stake in Glencore’s Kamoto and Mutanda cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The move...
Strengthening Romania’s Competitiveness
Romania has closed much of the gap to OECD income levels over the past twenty years, driven by market integration, capital inflows, and broad reforms. Labor productivity now sits close to the OECD average, though wages have begun outpacing productivity...
Gulf Crisis to Strengthen, Not Weaken, China’s Industrial Edge
The escalating Iran‑Israel‑US crisis threatens to choke the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude prices above $100 a barrel and adding up to 1.2% to global inflation. At the same time, worldwide electricity demand is surging, driven by AI‑intensive data centers...
The Comparative Influence of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows on Export Performance Between Landlocked and Coastal African Countries
The paper analyzes how foreign direct investment (FDI) influences export performance in African economies from 1996 to 2023, separating landlocked from coastal nations. Using Kao‑Pedroni cointegration and Granger causality with a Pooled Mean Group estimator, it finds a long‑run equilibrium...
India’s Wholesale Inflation Hits 11-Month High of 2.13% in February
India’s Wholesale Price Index rose to 2.13 % in February, the highest level in 11 months, up from 1.81 % in January. The increase was driven primarily by higher prices for manufactured goods, basic metals, food articles and textiles. Primary articles saw...
The EU’s Energy Dilemma
EU foreign and energy ministers convened in Brussels to address mounting risks to energy security as Iranian tensions disrupt shipping routes and threaten supply chains. Norway positioned itself as a dependable gas supplier, offering a potential lifeline for the bloc....
Nigeria Seeks to Unlock Liquidity From Tightly Held Stocks
Nigerian regulators are reassessing free‑float rules for listed firms to increase market liquidity and attract capital. The current framework requires at least 20% public shareholding or 40 billion naira of tradable shares, but many large companies remain tightly held by controlling...
How Takaichi Can Triumph
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi leveraged her landslide snap‑election win to double down on a U.S.-centric security strategy, positioning Japan as the linchpin of a broader Indo‑Pacific coalition against China. Her approach directly counters Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call...
China’s 30-Year Yields Set for Highest Close Since 2024 on Oil
China’s 30‑year government bond yields climbed to 2.4%, the highest closing level since September 2024, as oil prices surged amid the Iran‑Israel conflict. The 10‑year benchmark also edged higher to 1.83%, reflecting broader inflation concerns. Futures on the 30‑year bond fell...
PS Quarterly Interview: Desmond Lachman
In a recent Project Syndicate interview, economist Desmond Lachman warns that President Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy could revive bond‑market vigilantes and destabilize the U.S. Treasury market. He argues that such stress may puncture the soaring AI‑related equity rally and...
GCC Bond, Sukuk Issuances Plunge Amid Iran War- #CapitalMarkets #Finance #Treasury #Finance
GCC dollar‑denominated bond and sukuk issuances have plunged since the Iran war erupted, despite the region’s strong credit fundamentals earlier in 2026. The GCC still represents roughly 40% of all emerging‑market dollar issuance this year, with outstanding DCM at $1.2 trillion....
Chinese Firms Investing in Development of Logistics Hubs in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan
China Railway Construction Engineering Group signed an agreement with a joint venture of Uzbekistan Railways and Kazakhstan’s PTC Holding to build Silkway Central Asia, an $84 million, 159‑hectare logistics hub near Tashkent. The first phase should be operational by 2027, with...
Europe 2050: Geometries of Peace, Power, and Prosperity
Europe faces a series of wake‑up calls—from COVID‑driven border closures to supply‑chain shocks, Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s market leverage, and strained US ties—that have exposed deep structural weaknesses in the Single Market, energy security and strategic autonomy. A new...
Philippines-Chile FTA Talks Seen Wrapping up in April
The Philippines is poised to finalize a free‑trade agreement with Chile by April 2026, after a series of negotiations that left only a few items unresolved. Bilateral trade last year totaled $334 million, with exports of $43.3 million and imports of $290.8 million,...
Individual Investors Are Chasing Oil’s Surge Amid Iran Conflict; Institutions Are Thinking About What Comes Next
Oil prices surged to $100 a barrel as the Iran‑Hormuz crisis intensified, prompting a wave of individual buying in the United States Oil Fund (USO). USO attracted nearly $1 billion of inflows and has risen about 46% since the conflict began,...
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Turkey’s Inflation Fight Stands Exposed to a Trump Wrecking Ball
Turkey’s inflation remains above 30% as the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) paused its tightening cycle on March 12, sparking criticism from analysts who argue a rate hike was warranted. The country’s $50 bn annual energy import bill and...
KCB Identifies Entity for 2026 Ethiopia Entry
KCB Group aims to enter Ethiopia by the end of 2026, planning to acquire control of a local bank that fits its cultural and strategic objectives. The deal must navigate Ethiopia’s 49% foreign‑shareholding ceiling, though the regulator can grant exceptions...
Electric Vehicles Could Soon Be Cheaper than Petrol Cars in Africa – if Financing Barriers Fall
New research from ETH Zürich and PSI finds that electric vehicles paired with off‑grid solar can already be cheaper than petrol cars in many African markets, especially where financing conditions are favorable. Falling battery prices and expanding global EV production...
Iran-US-Israel War May Cause Short-Term Economic Shortfall in India, Says Piyush Goyal
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said India’s economy remains resilient despite the Iran‑US‑Israel war, though a short‑term dip in activity is expected. He cited strong fundamentals and a projected 7%‑plus growth rate for the next fiscal year. State Bank of...
Peruvian Stocks: Why They May Be an Unexpected Winner of the AI Boom, Iran War
Peruvian equities have outperformed global peers in 2026, with the S&P Peru Total Index climbing 23% year‑to‑date and 75% over the past twelve months. The rally is driven by soaring copper, gold and silver prices as AI‑powered data centers boost commodity...
How China Is Wooing Paraguay’s Political Class Away From Longtime Ally Taiwan
China is intensifying a diplomatic campaign in Paraguay, offering all‑expenses‑paid tours of Chinese cities to lawmakers and journalists to showcase its economic might. The outreach aims to persuade Paraguay’s political class to abandon its long‑standing recognition of Taiwan, its last...
Transcript: The Economic Fallout of the Iran War
The US‑Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly a fifth of global oil flows and pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel. The surge in oil and LNG prices is spilling into gasoline,...
Heineken Doubles Down on India, Eyes 'Biggest Untapped Beer Market'
Heineken announced it will intensify its focus on India, calling the country the world’s biggest untapped beer market. The brewer, which controls United Breweries and the Kingfisher brand, already commands close to 50% of Indian beer sales. It cites structural...
Top Chinese Entrepreneurs Commit to Middle East Expansion Despite Iran War
Chinese tech magnates, including the founders of TCL and Xpeng, announced plans to double their outbound investment, targeting the Middle East and Latin America. The pledge comes as the US‑Israel conflict with Iran escalates and Washington intensifies pressure on Venezuela....
Boosting China-India Ties Should Be Pillar of Hong Kong’s Five-Year Plan
Hong Kong’s upcoming five‑year plan proposes making the Sino‑Indian partnership a strategic pillar. The proposal calls for extending visa‑free entry for Indian nationals, leveraging the Indian diaspora for scholarships and AI talent, and offering tax incentives to attract Indian firms...
Centre Flags War Risk to Thai Growth
The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at UTCC outlined three Middle‑East war scenarios, estimating that a prolonged, wide‑scale conflict could shave 2.31 percentage points off Thailand’s GDP. In the worst case, energy‑cost burdens would rise above 200 billion baht, exports could...
US Warned of China Rare Earth Curbs if Section 301 Tariffs Expand
The U.S. Trade Representative announced Section 301 investigations into 16 countries, including China, and separate probes into 60 economies over forced‑labor concerns. In response, Chinese officials warned they could reinstate rare‑earth export restrictions and halt soybean purchases if Washington proceeds with...
Is a Transcontinental Highway the Key to Unlocking Trade in Latin America?
The Inter‑American Development Bank is backing the Bi‑Oceanic Corridor—a 2,300‑mile road and rail link from Brazil to Chile—with a $200 million loan for the critical Paraguay segment. The corridor, slated for completion in late 2026, promises to shave roughly two‑and‑a‑half weeks off...
Here’s a Rare Chance to Invest Before Big Stock-Index Funds and Wall Street Dive In
FTSE Russell plans to reclassify Vietnam from a frontier market to the secondary‑emerging category, a move that will trigger substantial index‑fund inflows. Analysts estimate up to $5 billion could be redirected into Vietnamese equities once the change is implemented in September. Retail...
EXCLUSIVE: Cyprus Acts as a “Third Force” In EU Sanctions Extension Vote
Cyprus, currently holding the EU presidency, has moved from a neutral position to actively opposing the removal of sanctions on Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov, citing historic disputes with Turkey. The shift follows a letter from Turkish President Recep Erdoğan to Slovak...
India, UK Trade Pact May Come Into Effect in One Month From Now: Piyush Goyal
India and the United Kingdom are set to bring their Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) into force by mid‑April, just a month after the announcement. The deal grants duty‑free access for 99% of Indian exports to the UK market...
India’s Imports From China Slowed Overtime, Exports Grow Faster: Govt Tells Parliament
India’s imports from China have decelerated sharply, rising only 87.8% in FY2015‑25 versus a 618% surge in FY2005‑14, while exports to China accelerated to a 38.3% year‑on‑year gain in April‑January FY2024‑25 compared with a 13.8% import rise. The slowdown is...
Russia’s Nuclear Exports a Flourishing Geopolitical Asset, After Four Years of Ukraine War
Four years after the Ukraine invasion, Russia’s state nuclear firm Rosatom has turned civil nuclear exports into a robust geopolitical tool. The company now leads global reactor sales, offering VVER‑1200 and VVER‑1000 plants financed up to 90% by Russian state...
Microsoft Invests Hundreds of Millions of Dollars in Africa AI Push
Microsoft announced a multi‑year push to accelerate AI adoption across Africa, pledging to train three million people through partnerships with schools and universities in key hubs such as South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and Morocco. The company also struck a deal...
Mobilizing Africa’s Capital for African Development
Africa faces a $2.8 trillion financing gap for climate action by 2030, yet ample capital exists within the continent’s savings pools and sovereign wealth funds, plus global yield‑seeking investors. The article argues that fragmented markets prevent this capital from reaching needed...
Lichfield Quoted in Bloomberg Article Discussing How Countries Are Shielding Their Economies From Iran War Shocks
Atlantic Council senior fellow Lichfield was quoted in a Bloomberg piece highlighting how governments are insulating their economies from the fallout of the Iran‑Israel conflict. He noted that nations are bolstering strategic petroleum reserves, diversifying supply chains, and employing financial...