Social•Feb 19, 2026
Korean Reforms Spark Value Ups, Awaiting IBKR Access
I initially thought the Korean reforms would be ineffective. But on the ground, I’m seeing many companies come up with highly positive value up plans. And valuations remain a fraction of those in Japan. Once IBKR opens access, the focus will shift to Korea.
By Michael Fritzell
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Income Gaps Fuel Migration Across CARICOM Nations
Stark differences in income drive migration within CARICOM (and these are official data). More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/DaCnHTI3Wj
By Adam Tooze
Social•Feb 18, 2026
India Navy Seizes Shadow Fleet, Triggering Domino Effect
India's navy has begun seizing shadow fleet tankers in its exclusive economic zone. As I've said in other videos covering the shadow fleet, once the first domino falls...the rest will quickly follow. #crudeoil #crude #india #geopolitics https://t.co/IVVPGp8cQ7
By Peter Zeihan
Social•Feb 18, 2026
IEA Shifts Priorities to Security, Clean Energy, Affordability
IEA executive director Fatih Birol proposes focusing the agency's work in three areas during the next few years: 1) energy security -- "first and foremost" mission 2) new energy uptake (wind, solar, geothermal, nuclear) 3) afordability of energy "IEA 3.0" may well be...
By Javier Blas
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Retail Traders Set Record Demand on Citadel Platform
Citadel on flows, via Bbrg: Retail traders spent a record amount snapping up software shares on Citadel Securities’ platform, according to Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at the firm, which began tracking the data in 2017: “Net notional...
By MacroCharts
Social•Feb 18, 2026
China Delays Auto Sales Data, Signaling Weakening Market
The Economist: “Last month the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, another state-backed trade group, appears to have deferred the publication of its weekly sales data—a sure sign of growing anxiety over weakening numbers.” https://t.co/feytAJBiP2
By Jonathan Cheng
Social•Feb 17, 2026
IEA Paris Meeting Tests Net‑Zero Shift Against US Oil Priorities
For energy policy making, a key week in Paris as @IEA energy officials gather Feb 18-19 for a biennial ministerial meeting. The IEA’s drift toward net-zero advocacy and overtures to China will be tested as US officials push to a return...
By Javier Blas
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Nowcast IQ Predicts US Growth Despite Market Pessimism
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
By Andreas Steno Larsen
Social•Feb 17, 2026
US‑Iran Oil Talks Conclude Second Round, Third Round Pending
OIL MARKET: The 2nd round of US-Iran talks has concluded, and Iranian media says there would be a 3rd round of negotiations in the “near future” after both sides consult with their respective governments.
By Javier Blas
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Iran and Russia Clash over China Oil Supply Rivalry
The oil ministers of Iran and Russia met today. Contrary to popular belief, Moscow and Tehran are now bitter rivals in the oil market as the size of the black market for crude shrinks. Both compete to supply China. (My earlier @Opinion...
By Javier Blas
Social•Feb 17, 2026
China Shifts Reserves to State Banks, Boosts Returns
Beijing really just outsourced its reserves to its state banks, and shifted out of US custodians High return on investment tho. Tons of folks swallow the fall in reported Treasury holdings hook, line and sinker https://t.co/MKw3EJlSuR
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 17, 2026
China's Hidden Bank Interventions Hit $800B Annual Record
The annualized measures of Chinese intervention over the last 3ms that capture backdoor intervention by the state banks are at all time highs in dollar terms -- over $200b a quarter/ over $800b annualized https://t.co/7vlh3tf4CX
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 16, 2026
US Growth Decouples From Jobs, Entering Uncharted Territory
Via the Financial Times: My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory. The decoupling of US growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years: https://www.ft.com/content/298a38bb-4cc1-44f3-bd62-6aff25d58b94 #economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #growth...
By Mohamed El‑Erian
Social•Feb 15, 2026
US‑China Gap Lies Beyond Financialization Share of GDP
Whatever the difference between the US and China may be and however you evaluate it, it isn’t in “financialization”, at least not as measured by the share of finance in GDP (h/t twitter account of devarbol for this graph). More...
By Adam Tooze
Social•Feb 15, 2026
TIC Data Misses China’s Treasury Holdings Abroad
My periodic reminder that the US TIC data doesn't measure China's holdings of US Treasuries. It only measures China's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The real question is how many Treasuries Chinese entities hold in non US...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 15, 2026
East Asia, Africa Match West; MENA, South Asia Lag
East Asia has labour-market gender gaps comparable to those in Europe and North America. Sub-Saharan Africa is also surprisingly similar (in the formal labour market). MENA and South Asia have massive gender segregation and LatAm and Carib are surprisingly in-between....
By Adam Tooze
Social•Feb 15, 2026
Stockpile Buffers Risk, Not Replaces Chinese Supply
A $12B rare earth stockpile is a step in the right direction, but buying from China on the open market isn’t independence; it’s a piggy bank with a very fragile supply chain. Until we build domestic processing, this is a...
By Peter Zeihan
Social•Feb 15, 2026
Eurasia Holds 81% of Trade‑Linked Jobs Globally
81 percent of employment worldwide that is linked to trade in goods and services is in Europe and Asia. Globalization is a eurasian story. Chartbook 433 just dropped. Check it out. https://t.co/jq1gYjLP4X https://t.co/I3iRrM8XEN
By Adam Tooze
Social•Feb 15, 2026
Consumption, Not Exports, Powers China's Growth
Why smart people say that exports “contribute” to China’s growth rather than “driving” it: almost all the time, growth in consumption is, in fact, a bigger contributor. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/NNNTMiyj6N
By Adam Tooze
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China's Foreign Exchange Reserves: Key Trends Unveiled
Deep dive into Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/Yc09wNGpPK
By Adam Tooze
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Poor Nations Double Youth Disengagement Compared to Rich Countries
How rich-country advantages compound. More than twice the share of young people in poor countries are not in employment, education or training. This and more insights in today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/pokvStfn3w
By Adam Tooze
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Cognitive Warfare Already Undermining Western Alliances and Institutions
Cognitive warfare isn’t coming—it’s here. Some Western political leaders are being used to weaken alliances, disrupt decision-making, and fragment institutions. Swipe to see the key predictions, and visit davidmurrin.co.uk for the full analysis. #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #Russia #China #Strategy
By David Murrin
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Iran's Inflation Hits 81.5%, World's Second Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 81.5%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/HcSee4i4O2
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Buy Manappuram on Pullbacks Amid RBI
Macro: PE flows target Indian NBFCs. RBI cleared Bain's up to 41.7% in Manappuram; ₹43.85bn injected. Risk: regulatory scrutiny. Trading insight: buy Manappuram on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
By Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA
Social•Feb 14, 2026
EU Boosts Chinese Imports as Trump Tariffs Bite
During 2025, Chinese exports to the EU jumped by 6.3%. TRUMP'S TARIFFS = EU PIVOTS TOWARDS CHINA. https://t.co/tkz6F9xAsN
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Nifty May Plunge to 19k Amid Global Macro Risks
The Nifty Can Crash to 19000 due to Global Macros - Prepare Now - Hindi ... https://t.co/gKdPPrx6C6 via @YouTube The video discussed the current market setup, IT sector view, which sectors are the weakest. Why we got here and where...
By Rohit Srivastava
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Modi Leveraged Trump Tariff Threat to Advance Free Trade
My take on PM Modi's clever move to reduce India's punishing tariffs and non-tariff barriers: "Modi used the tariff threat from Trump as cover to push for free trade between India and other countries." MODI = SMARTER THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/aTUbO8em04
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 14, 2026
EU Trade Surplus Shrinks as Tariffs and China Pressure
1/5 Reuters: "The EU's trade surplus kept shrinking, data showed on Friday, as tariffs weighed on exports to the U.S. and rising Chinese imports crowded out domestic production, highlighting existential threats to the bloc's economic model." https://t.co/91sJO2nGjP
By Michael Pettis
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Provincial Revenues Forecast 2‑3% Growth, Lagging Economy
1/4 SCMP: "Major provinces are budgeting for 2 to 3 per cent growth this year in general public operating revenue, broadly in line with last year but below broader economic growth targets, Fitch Ratings said in a research note." https://t.co/HwyAPw042O
By Michael Pettis
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China Cracks Down on Hidden Corporate IOU Market
1/3 Very interesting Caixin article on attempts by Chinese regulators to get their arms around "the opaque market for corporate IOUs that has allowed big-name companies to defer payments to suppliers on a massive scale." https://t.co/FIJywKAtIX
By Michael Pettis
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Demand Plummets as Gas Powers Electricity
CHART OF THE DAY: Among the world's top oil consumers, a curious trend. The 2nd largest consumption drop last year ocurred in Saudi Arabia, where demand fell ~60,000 b/d (only South Korea saw a larger drop). The reason? Gas is...
By Javier Blas
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China's January Financing Jumps 2.4% Year‑over‑year, Beating Forecasts
1/5 According to Caixin, China’s aggregate financing grew slightly faster than expected in January, rising by RMB 7.22 trillion. This was 2.4% more than in January 2025 and 10.4% more than in January 2024. It is equal to 5.1% of annual...
By Michael Pettis
Social•Feb 14, 2026
South Africa's Record Real Rates Prompt Slow, Steady Cuts
South African rates are restrictive. The real policy rate is the highest it’s been in 20 years, and they expect growth. They are suffocating the economy with high real rates. However, we can expect more rate cuts throughout the year,...
By Talk Cents
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China's Railway Investment Climbs 5.5% in January
Xinhua: "China's railway sector completed 46.3 billion yuan (about 6.67 billion U.S. dollars) in fixed-asset investment in January, up 5.5 percent year on year." https://t.co/g109GF2REm
By Michael Pettis
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Malaysia Beats Forecast, Yet MSMEs Face Headwinds
Malaysia’s Economic Outlook & Risks Full-year performance exceeds government’s upper ceiling based on 4Q 2025 data Outperformance —► Hawkish BNM bias. Chatter of tougher operating conditions on the ground, especially for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) including F&B sector are leading many...
By David Chuah
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China’s Inbound FDI Collapses as Outbound Investment Soars
For years, the world invested in China. Since 2022, foreign direct investment inflows to China have PLUNGED, while China's foreign investment outflows have SURGED. https://t.co/TCWhEPF7bq
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China EV Sales Dip, Exports Surge 70% Abroad
China EV Sales Drop for First Time Since February 2024—Chinese exports of EVs and hybrids rise 70% in 2025 as automakers shift their focus overseas @ivy_jiahuihuang https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg
By Jonathan Cheng
Social•Feb 13, 2026
China’s $1.2 T Surplus Fuels Massive Market Interventions
One by product of China's exploding external surplus (goods surplus of $1.2 trillion, q4 current account surplus annualized is close to $1 trillion) is that it creates the raw material for some massive intervention numbers h/t @Mike_Weilandt for the chart https://t.co/PMvhatfgWh
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Notable Absentees Among Firms Granted Venezuelan Upstream Access
Can't help but notice who ISN'T on this list of companies who just gained access to invest and operate in Venezuelan upstream. https://t.co/qrLcy4bd48
By Rory Johnston