Chinese Nationalists Cite Trump as Proof of East’s Rise
China increasingly casts itself as a superpower poised to surpass America.Chinese nationalists say they have Mr. Trump to thank. America under his rule,they say, validates Xi’s worldview centered on “the rise of the East and decline of the West.”My latest https://t.co/Bpt4aeVB1D
Xi’s Leverage Forces US to Rethink Taiwan Policy
FT says Xi now holds most of the cards ahead of the Trump meeting Liberation Day tariffs flopped once China’s critical mineral chokehold started shutting U.S. factories Now the Iran war fiasco has weakened Washington further EXPECT A REVISION OF THE US POSITION...
Trump Returns to Beijing as China Grows More Defiant
Trump Faces an Emboldened China in Return to Beijing—A decade after Trump’s last visit, Beijing is digging in on core issues of disagreement with the U.S., despite weaknesses at home https://t.co/Z4QKyot731 https://t.co/Z4QKyot731
China’s Elite Shifted From Public to Private Wealth
The transformation of the Chinese “elite” since the 1980s has been dramatic. In the 1980s the richest 5 percent were made up of people drawing their incomes from public sector sources. By 2018 private income predominates and the group is...
Russia Slashes 2026‑29 Growth Forecast, Holds Oil Price Steady
“Russia has cut its economic growth forecast for 2026 and the following three years but left unchanged the projected oil price despite the spike in global prices driven by the war in the Middle East, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak...
China's Mercantilist Squeeze Threatens Developing Economies
Important NEW paper @PIIE China's mercantilist squeeze on developing economies by @arvindsubraman @shoumitro_c Who really is harmed by China Shock 2.0
China's Military Dominance and 2027 Taiwan Reunification Unaccounted
The hubris of Trump/Bessent IS China: “China leads in most military domains - and it's not even close” And China reunifying with Taiwan in 2027 is not priced in.
U.S. Abandons Efforts to Reform China, Plans Trade Cuts
.@bobdavis187: “The United States has given up trying to change China’s economy through outside pressure or inducements. Instead, the U.S. accepts the state-dominated Chinese system as it is, and will…look to cut trade deals within the new framework.” https://t.co/D50COlAlzy
China Confident It Can Outmaneuver Trump on Key Policies
.@KennedyCSIS: “China’s leadership is genuinely confident about its ability to out-maneuver President Trump and gain the upper hand over the United States on China’s core foreign policy interests.” https://t.co/BeN9jhjaDK
Japan Denies Oil Futures Intervention, Keeps Option Open
Japan has publicly denied it had intervened in the oil futures market Speaking overnight, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Tokyo hadn’t intervened but added the government had never ruled out such an option.
Record Margin Debt Yet Bullish on Chinese Stocks
According to Bloomberg, margin debt lending in China jumped to a record 2.8 trillion yuan on Monday, extending gains into a fourth session. Risk is rising, but I continue to expect that Chinese stocks will do well over the rest...
US Chamber Warns Limited Window to Counter China’s Supply‑chain Push
US Chamber of Commerce has warned that countries have only a “finite” window to respond to Chinese policies that are deepening reliance on its supply chains and harming the global economy. The Washington-based lobby group said Beijing was “doubling...
US Imports From China Plunge, Vietnam and India Rise
China’s share of goods imported to the U.S. has fallen from 22% at the start of Trump’s first term in 2017 to just 7.5% in the first three months of this year, as American companies have shifted supply chains for...
Middle East War Could Cost US Households Billions
From the Financial Times article seeking to estimate the economic cost of the Middle East war to US households, businesses, and the federal budget. #economy #markets #middleeastwar @financialtimes
Is China’s Reserve Shift Real Insight or Overfit?
Question for @EtraAlex and other students of the TIC data. Is this overfitting to the last known data point, or valuable new insight into where China's reserve holdings appear now that it is minimizing the use of US...
U.S. Economy Still 1.5× Larger Than China
There were predictions about China overtaking the U.S. economy by now, but the U.S. is at least 1.5 times bigger at $32 trillion vs China’s $20 trillion. China’s economy has been plagued in recent years by deflation, a property crisis and...
China’s $1 Trillion US Reinvestment Sparks Network‑Style Alarm
Discussion of a prospective $1 trillion dollar reinvestment plan by China into the US is basically this scene from Network👇 https://t.co/htvQHKHiXH
EU Greenlights Mexico Deals Ahead of Historic Summit
JUST IN: The European Council approves Mexico deals before their first summit in over a decade.
UK Sanctions Iranian-Linked Network over Attack Plots
JUST IN: The UK sanctions a network linked to Iran, citing attack plots and finance operations.
China Controls Rare Earths Powering U.S. Tech
My take in @FortuneMagazine on China’s ace - rare earths: “Every advanced weapons system, electric drivetrain, wind turbine, and smartphone in the US runs through China’s critical materials.” The rules are being rewritten, and they are being rewritten in Beijing. https://t.co/m5S1TtrB5g
Dollar Dominance Trades US Gains for Chinese Factory Control
The charts rhyme b/c of "dollar dominance": China exports a lot of cars (& other things) US exports a lot of stocks & bonds (but not much else on net) The ultimate outcome = China gets US factories & controlling stakes in US...
Korea Posts $300B Surplus Amid Record Won Weakness
Two things I never thought I would see: a $300b Korean current account surplus, and a $300b surplus paired with near record won weakness against the US dollar Strange times https://t.co/iSymq2hcGb
China's EV Exports Outpace Gasoline for First Time
China shipped more electric than gasoline cars worldwide for the first time ever in April 52.7% of 769,000 cars exported were EVs, doubling EV exports from last April. More EVs because they save consumers $20,000-$40,000 in fuel costs if driving 15 y/15,000...
China’s Free‑Trade Push Beats US Protectionism
My take in @FortuneMagazine on China’s FREE TRADE INITIATIVES: “China has eliminated tariffs on African partners, fast-tracking Chinese investment in India, and exporting open-source AI through DeepSeek. While Washington builds walls, Beijing opens doors." https://t.co/ylMhrtrfhr
Kharg Island Sees Longest Tanker‑free Stretch Since War’s Start
Kharg Island update: @CopernicusEU satellite imagery shows no supertanker loadings on May 8, May 9 and May 11 (we don't have data for May 10 from either Sentinel 1 or Sentinel-2 🛰️). It looks like the longest stretch without loadings...
IMF Model Shows Yuan Undervalued About 25‑30%
With a realistic current account surplus number (one that takes out the 22 downward adjustment in the goods surplus and uses a realistic estimate of the income balance), the IMF's model would suggest a 25-30% undervaluation
US Sanctions Nine Chinese Firms over Iran Ties
US sanctions 9 mainland China and Hong Kong entities over ‘Iran military links’ Treasury and State Department announcements come days ahead of US President Donald Trump’s expected China visit and summit with Xi Jinping https://t.co/38VPBjgWgN via @scmpnews
Trump Proposes US‑China Trade Board Ahead of Summit
The Trump administration has proposed a US-China "Board of Trade" as a deliverable for the Beijing summit between the two presidents this week. Details thus far are scant. If I were a journalist on the trip, these are the first questions...
China Ranks Third Globally in AI-Driven Life Sciences
China ranks third in global index for AI competitiveness in life sciences China listed behind only the US and UK, reflecting the country’s ‘major scale’ in AI, biotechnology and talent, says data consortium https://t.co/IqiWdO5hea via @scmpnews
Trump's Beijing Visit Marks First US Presidential Trip in Decade
JUST IN: President Trump to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday, the first time a US President will visit China in nearly a decade
Mexico Delivers Final 15th Rate Cut to 6.50%
Global Central Bank Update: -Mexico cut rates for the 15th time in the cycle with a 25 bps move down to 6.50%. The board stated this will be the final cut in the easing cycle. https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/669sf1Lo6O
China Pushes Global Expansion While Guarding Domestic Production
Rhodium: "Chinese firms are emerging as major global competitors, but Beijing is intent on ensuring that this overseas expansion does not lead to a hollowing out of production or capabilities in China or a loss of control over key supply...
China’s Industrial Push Threatens G7’s 13% Export Share
Hard hitting and detailed rpt on China's new industrial policy and implications. Including the potential challenge to/loss of market share in G7 = almost 13% of mfg exports by 2030. Past due time to smell the coffee. https://t.co/9WBKMxPaRz
China Pumps AI and Weapons, Economy Sputters
Xi’s China: Dazzling Technology, Military Muscle—and an Economic Mess. Government pours money into AI, electric cars and military power, while consumer confidence sags and job market grows bleak @BrianSpegele https://t.co/oLalrSpepN https://t.co/oLalrSpepN
Saudi Retaliation Risk: Destroying Own Oil Assets
“… Had the Kingdom wanted, and it is capable of doing so, to respond in kind to Iran by destroying Iranian facilities and interests, the outcome could have been the destruction of Saudi oil facilities…” — Prince Turki Al-Faisal https://t.co/yVh8S9oMYL
Supercycle Looms as Capital Fuels Tech-Driven Growth
There is a rising probability that we have a super cycle based on: Increasing interest payments that need monetizing via the bank of system The reliance on short term bill issuance reducing cyclically of debt rollover. The largest capex boom in history based...
China Will Act only when Iran Disrupts Its Interests
Trump hopes Xi will intervene with Iran But he will escalate probably next weekend if not, writes @TheMichaelEvery China will act only when disruption starts to hurt IT more than it hurts the U.S. And not a moment before. #China #Iran #Hormuz...
Tech Exports Fuel K‑Shaped Divergence Across Asia
A thread storm of Asia K-Shaped Divergence in Asia. In January, we published a note called EM Asia K-Shaped Recovery: Tech Exports to Lead Regional Economic Divergence in 2026, with India Lagging Even before the war, tech was driving divergence in performance...
China's Inflation and Producer Prices Beat Forecasts
JUST IN: China's April consumer prices rose 1.2% year-over-year, versus an estimate of 0.9%, and producer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year, versus an estimate of 1.8%.
China's PPI Surge Boosts FX, Not Equities
Good morning, China PPI rose to 2.8%YoY in April from 0.5% but CPI increased by much less at 1.2% vs 1.1% previously. Chinese equities have underperformed Japan, Taiwan, South Korea because of margin compression, subdued domestic demand, and thus less ability...
China’s Oil Aid Drives Asian Pivot From US
My take in @FortuneMagazine on China’s DIPLOMATIC POSITIONING: “China is deploying its 1.4-billion-barrel strategic crude reserve to aid its Asian neighbors while the US is blocking the Strait of Hormuz.” Seoul, Tokyo, and Jakarta are PIVOTING AWAY from Uncle Sam. https://t.co/PLQmOFRWfy
Trump‑Xi Imagery Hints China Reopens to U
The expected images of @realDonaldTrump and Xi together may still send a signal within China that it’s more acceptable again to engage with U.S. businesses, said Michael Hart, @AmCham_China. “Since U.S. military actions earlier this year, Chinese officials have been...
Investors Shift Focus to Asian Equities for Next Rally
As the focus moves away from the Iran war, investors and strategists alike are looking for the next leg up in equities. Many are turning to Asia. https://t.co/6c0zWItqEk
IMF Misses Surge in China's Surplus, Predicts Decline
The IMF didn't see the big rise in China's surplus coming. In fact, @IMFNews always forecasts that the surplus will dissipate -- From work in progress with Shahin Vallee 1/ https://t.co/Wp2uhY73cS
China Acquires US Defense Assets Cheaply as Americans Fund Deficits
“Dollar dominance” as defined by many here on X = China buys up the US defense industrial base on the cheap while US Boomers & Banks buy negative real yielding USTs to finance US deficits (aka lose capital on a...
China Offers Aid as US Builds Walls
My take in @FortuneMagazine on the pivot away from the USA to China: “While Bessent was busying himself on Fox News, China was busy making friends by supplying those in distress with much-needed oil and other commodities…While Washington raises walls, Beijing opens doors.” https://t.co/E4hn2YdcN2
China Leverages SOEs to Weaponize Import Bans
I am not the first person to observe that when China decides to make a political point by not importing it makes that point forcefully -- by zero'ing out its imports from a specific country. Big SoEs control a...
China Uses Trade Deals as Leverage, Creates Hostages
China loves these deals, as they create "hostages" that China can seize if the relationship goes sour -- (of course China never delivered on its "phase one commitments, and it squeezed 'beans hard over the last year) 1/3 https://t.co/54LagYdspc
Iran Conflict Triggers Recession, Accelerates Renewable Shift
principal near term impact of ongoing iran war: global recession. bad for everyone. principal long term impact of ongoing iran war: end of opec, faster move away from oil & gas towards post-carbon renewables. good for everyone, especially china.
Buy Asian Cyclical Exporters on Trade‑talk Dip
US–China trade talks in S.Korea (May 12–13) signal detente; risk if talks falter. Trade insight: buy Asian cyclical exporters on dip. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov