Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Pulse
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
"contract resolved to "yes" following Tuesday evening's announcements, but its outcome has since been changed to "disputed" given continued disruptions to Hormuz Strait shipments and enduring hostilities" Iran Ceasefire Wreaks Havoc on Prediction Markets https://t.co/uv56XlWTW9
This is a really fantastic overview of what's been going on in Iranian financial markets over the last year. Turns out, since the start of this war, Iranian retail traders have been rotating out of precious metals and into fixed income...
The Midsouth (TN + Carolinas) have 24m people combined Texas has 32m And yet, the 3 states of the Mid South picked up 2x as much wealth as Texas ($11b vs. $6b) The mid South is the next great economic region...
.@KGeorgieva opening speech @IMFNews spring meetings entirely about impact of Iran war. Notable shift as IMF and @WorldBankGroup have been reticent so far. But unlike previous crises, IMF is not proposing new action, other than standing ready to help.
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist by training, makes a policy U-turn, now backing the development of shale gas deposits in her country (which means fracking, even if she avoided using that word — a taboo in Mexico —...
Given "Schroedinger's ceasefire" and "Schroedinger's Hormuz re-opening", thought this was a potentially instructive chart from @johnauthers, via @Bloomberg. #HistoryRhymes https://t.co/86srIVeKMI
Trump's latest statement telling countries to secure their own oil dismantles the very fabric of the global order. We'd be stepping away from the post-WWII system where the U.S. provided security for everyone, so economic growth could be the priority. Full...
France’s Lescure says the economic impact from the Iran war is moderate for now https://t.co/hUDRHnjPtG via @WHorobin https://t.co/fRjzKgdDjb
UAE senior oil official Sultan Al Jaber denounces the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. “Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” “Conditional passage is not passage. It is control by another name,” he says. https://t.co/TFczKBO4kk
The good news: attacks have come down markedly (ex Lebanon), and the fragile ceasefire seems to be holding. The bad news: so far, almost no movement of ships in-and-out of the Strait of Hormuz. Several Chinese oil tankers have pre-positioned to...
SCMP: "Several major Chinese banks have clawed back staff bonuses or cut salaries amid a sluggish economic recovery and Beijing’s ongoing scrutiny of the financial sector." https://t.co/7HaKaMzkVD via @scmpnews
Yicai: "Chief economists surveyed by Yicai predicted China’s gross domestic product to have expanded 4.8 percent in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, higher than the 4.5 percent growth in the fourth quarter of last year....
Russia is offering to sell US-sanctioned LNG to South Asian buyers at a *40% discount* 🇷🇺🚢 Moscow is seeking to leverage the global natural gas crunch to lure energy-hungry countries like Bangladesh and India https://t.co/SsirotyuhI
Will Asia return to coal, or will a new renewables future emerge from the Iran crisis? David Fickling and Akshat Rathi discuss https://t.co/PdxxKr6KZD
Pay the toll — move the oil. If you guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, markets will pay. Certainty lowers risk. Risk moves prices. And when 21% of the world’s oil is on the line, stability is worth billions https://t.co/m4JhLddeJq
JUST IN: Asian markets are poised to rise at the open due to the fragile Iran-US ceasefire deal.
The war with Iran and the Hormuz closure have kicked up a lot of debate about Chinese energy futures. And Venezuela, from which China also bought oil, adds fuel to one piece of that debate. But my #CarnegieAsia teammate @damienics,...
SCOOP: The US is considering lifting sanctions on #Venezuela’s central bank to facilitate the flow of billions of dollars into the country’s battered economy, sources familiar with the matter tell Andreina Itriago, @zerpius and me. https://t.co/DlIY8v24CH
Are foreign investments by GCC countries into the U.S. market compromised as cash flows continue to be cut off by the war in Iran? Watch my entire interview with @JayMartinBC here ➡️ https://t.co/0whdPPs6jQ #iranwar #economy #geopolitics https://t.co/pFuTmXYj79
Outstanding day for LatAm today. War ending or not… one thing seems highly likely: None of the major tech companies will go out of their way to allocate capital toward building new data centers or large-scale facilities in the Middle East anytime...
A day filled with headlines about the ceasefire being violated, not holding, etc. has had almost no impact on stock prices. Futures still way up on the day. https://t.co/6JyGWIaWcl
The first round of US-Iran talks will take place Saturday in Islamabad, with the US negotiating team led by Vice President JD Vance, the White House said.
Ok let's review, Strait is back to closed, Israel is bombing Tehran and Lebanon, Iran is drone bombing Kuwait/Saudi pipelines/UAE, they are threatening to cancel Friday's meeting and the markets couldn't care less.
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
Iran has closed the Strait. What can be done with their having control of Hormuz? What is next?
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ Brazil's 10-year bond yield tumbled toward 13.7% as crude oil prices plunged, improving the inflation outlook. ⦿ US crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3. ⦿ US 10-year...
The last plot is through 9:43 AM ET today (April 8th). It is on track to be the highest of the last month. Again, this has to go to zero for shipping to start moving through the Strait. Note that the uptick...
My new framework: We are in a productivity boom inside a government sovereign debt bubble that causes geopolitical & demographic issues- these issues mask themselves as stagflationary. In a productivity boom there are massive winners and losers. Passive management doesn’t work well...
Well, an Iranian toll -- Or an Iranian, Omani and DJT toll -- Would create a financial incentive to build this alternative export infrastructure for the GCC's oil and (more difficult) gas
Forget US Treasuries, Chinese bonds are the new safe-haven trade Since the start of the war, foreigners have: - Dumped $82B of Treasuries - Piled into panda bonds The math makes sense: - US 10-year yield: 4.4% - China 10-year yield: 1.8% In the midst of the...
It's the Dollar versus EM that's been the key leading indicator for USD direction and that's now tumbling (black). We're in a new regime for the Dollar and are going back to the 2010-2013 period, when Dollar weakness was primarily...
🚨Iran demands fees for ships passing Hormuz during ceasefire🚨 This 'agreement' will confirm Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 1️⃣Iran has ZERO authority to monitor what sails into or out of the Persian Gulf 2️⃣The requirement to sail through Iranian waters...
Nothing to see here. China adds to its gold reserves. The deglobalization toothpaste is already out of the tube — and the rush into neutral assets is only just beginning. https://t.co/oXGnVgwKfX https://t.co/VQE5YC3lrf
Iran and the US are considering imposing tolls on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, challenging the UN Law of the Sea's free passage principle. Oman opposes the tolls, raising legal and economic concerns that could impact global maritime norms...
Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun arrived in China on Tuesday at the invitation of President Xi Jinping, in what she’s calling a “journey for peace” as Beijing pushes for the self-ruled island to come under its control. @EECastilloAP @SiminaMistreanu https://t.co/aJ3NijhPub
The US has to answer some questions: Does the US Treasury extend the waiver on Russian oil sales? (the general license expires on Sunday, Apr 11) And more politically charged, does the US Treasury extend the waiver on Iranian oil sales?...
".. While Moscow and Beijing fear US military and intelligence superiority, they have seen it couldn’t force Iran’s capitulation, the people said." @business https://t.co/3Z3v7Boini
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI inflation slowed to 30.87%/yr in March, down from 31.53%/yr in February. With its money supply, M3, still growing at 39.9%/yr, Turkey’s #1 problem REMAINS Inflation. Monetary policy is still too loose. https://t.co/2EpdZjFZ8x
Pakistan owes $3.5 billion to the UAE, due this month. To cover it, they are going hat in hand to China and Saudi Arabia, again. PAK = THIRD WORLD. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/e4naldX7Ad
We know we face months of physical disruption to energy and food markets. Inflation will keep getting worse. The question is whether risk assets will care, if the underlying conflict has been resolved. I suspect not...unless the economy deteriorates in...
Romania’s central bank governor joined calls for the Black Sea nation to revive a goal of adopting the euro as the country seeks to get through a painful period of austerity https://t.co/SjqJU4C4eB https://t.co/wJj4vWehdb
The RBI is balancing inflation control with growth support, keeping rates unchanged amid global uncertainties, while projecting solid GDP growth but slightly softer momentum next year.
Since 2008, Philippines’s economy has put in a strong performance. But, thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, PH is going to take a hit. It has ~50 days of oil reserves left and has declared a national energy emergency. PH should send...
To be blunt, no one gave this memo to China's banks External dollar assets up, external dollar liabilities down -- net long dollars way up. and we already know from other banking data that the dollar long increased significantly in...
JUST IN: Iran and Oman can now impose fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz under the ceasefire deal, per a regional official.
JUST IN: Iran's regime is persisting with its grip on the Strait of Hormuz despite President Trump's cease-fire announcement.
JUST IN: Israel accepted the two-week US-Iran ceasefire terms, according to a White House official.
Good morning, I woke up to the best news ever - we got a two-week ceasefire that has lit Asian and risks assets that have been languishing on the closure of the Strait. The Korean won is rallying the hardest, followed...
Thoughts? We discuss how geopolitical tensions and Trump's deadline are creating major market volatility. We break down what the average person misses: how to watch the dollar, yields, and capital flows to stay ahead of the smart money. We explore...
*IRAN ACCEPTS PAKISTAN'S TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL: NYT -- "ceasefire will come into force when Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz" -- So, this chart will be at zero tomorrow, and ships can start moving immediately? https://t.co/3VFPp2rq6x
