Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
"The problem is there was never enough cash to fund all his [Crown Prince MBS] ambitious initiatives." Indeed. That's why measures lie the balance of payments breakeven are useful. The Saudis needed $90 plus oil -- or near unlimited access to debt financing 1/ https://t.co/EFRV8o0yJq
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Due to foreign debt repayments, Pakistan's foreign reserves are set to shrink by a STUNNING ONE-THIRD this month. PAK = THIRD WORLD = IN THE TANK. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/QKr6kb5Sop
🇮🇳India’s Russian crude imports rebound sharply — up nearly 94% in March MoM and 10% YoY. https://t.co/O0zIu8LcIi
An interesting question to ponder is whether Chinese overcapacity is essentially indirectly subsidizing the electrification of the "global south". It's similar to countries buying oil on the cheap, typically to stockpile. At the moment, oil is of course not cheap....
China imports US oil for Asian fuel markets amid Hormuz crisis @asiatimesonline https://t.co/Iy0aRy8vam China is moving to resume large-scale purchases of United States liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil, as supply disruptions in the Middle East and tightening fuel markets...
1/7 Martin Wolf, in an important piece on unsustainable current account imbalances, makes a point that most American economists miss: "the counterpart of external deficits tends to be unsustainable domestic borrowing." https://t.co/h7ob7Aac6A via @ft
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s net energy imports have exploded over the past 2 decades. Net energy imports have SURGED more than 4x since 2000. MORE ENERGY IMPORTS = MORE VULNERABILITY. https://t.co/PxS0fxVpuJ
Hormuz isn’t controlled. It’s poisoned. There's no blockade & no toll booth. Iran has made transit so dangerous that no rational vessel owner moves. Iran's "approval" through exemptions is bullshit Flows remain stopped except for a few tankers willing to take great risk. #Hormuz #IranWar...
There’s something to this Iraq stuff, even if it’s still too early to say how consequential this flow will grow to be https://t.co/S1itXIUl4L
catching up on the news after the holiday week, seems like the US-Iran negotiations are going well
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s export mix has been REWRITTEN in the past 30 years. Services SURGED from 17% in 1995 to 45% in 2023. In the meantime, as a share of total exports, textiles and agriculture COLLAPSED. https://t.co/rjJl7fH9a0
Listen to the question carefully then listen to the answer. Those waiting for US Leadership in solving the Strait of Hormuz issue, you are gonna be disappointed. They have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA how to solve the issue. In less than 2 weeks, global...
China Creates New Aviation Mystery With Offshore Warning Zones—Beijing reserves airspace for 40 days, suggesting possible military activity ahead @joyuwang https://t.co/S5iRx1CF03 https://t.co/S5iRx1CF03
This is why it is so important for Europa to help create a stabil situation. European participation would make it politically hard for China to support Iran with missiles and drones. Chinese support could make it impossible for USA to...
China Daily notes that non-performing loan disposals are rising, suggesting that China is slowly developing a bad-loan market, even as record low net-interest margins make it harder for banks to recognize bad loans. https://t.co/UhXgPDv3nE
1/3 Xinhua: "China has sent fresh signals of promoting more balanced development of imports and exports. A recent commentary article in the Qiushi Journal called for concrete steps to balance import and export growth." https://t.co/eO90uuquzA
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India boasts the WORLD'S 4th largest GDP. But, when it comes to income per person, India comes in at a lowly 126th in the world. https://t.co/YKTgg6cZcJ
In the early days of the invasion of Iran, US oil prices were slightly insulated from the global price shock, by perhaps $10 a barrel or 25% of the spike. That has now ended. Oil is a globally traded commodity....
The irony is: the EU reduced its dependence on Russia to improve "energy security"! Slovak PM says EU should drop sanctions on Russian oil and gas to boost energy security https://t.co/FmUhPkAcgE
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is stepping in to try to slow the rupee’s slide. By restricting derivatives and other tools traders use to SHORT the rupee, the RBI is trying to suppress bets AGAINST the currency. THE RBI'S ENGAGED...
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Markets → Oil, Gold, Equities ─────── 1. Israeli strikes on Iran's Mahshahr petrochemical complex disrupt 70% of the country's gasoline supply and export revenues. 2. US demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz escalate tensions, threatening global oil...
Israel “ready to hit Iran’s energy sector,” waiting on U.S. approval. That’s a signal to pressure Iran to back down & deal It COULD happen but would panic markets & possibly cause a financial crisis on top of an oil crisis #Oil...
So… the Iranian IRGC exempts ships carrying Iraqi oil and allows them to sail through the Hormuz Strait, but drone attacks on Iraqi oil fields continue. https://t.co/PoAWXPyVEz
My thesis is already aging well. "Iran says Iraq exempt from any Strait of Hormuz restrictions" https://t.co/VSTaM2D34T
"The Islands That Give Iran a Stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz." Good analysis @WSJ https://t.co/Bq6iyg2c3C
This is a major signal shift: India a top global importer is openly buying Iranian oil again When supply tightens, politics gives way to reality. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Iran #Geopolitics
We are watching the complete meltdown of the EU / US relationship in real time currently
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrived in Doha Saturday as part of a 2-day diplomatic charm offensive meant to shore up ties with the Gulf and bolster energy supplies hit by the war in Iran https://t.co/qFF0IY3avN via @donatopmancini @ssirletti https://t.co/r8GavWDRH6
New Delhi confirms its buying oil from Iran (after US eased sanctions): “… Indian refiners have secured their crude oil requirements, including from Iran; and there is no payment hurdle for Iranian crude imports…”
1/12 Bloomberg: "Canada pitched expanding its financial services presence in the Chinese market as the northern nation aims to increase exports to its second-largest trading partner in a push to diversify from the US." https://t.co/MifJtmoDWc
I wrote this at the beginning of the war. I don't like to predict things, but it appears that the initial probabilities I'd spoken of have kinda sorta come about. The war will continue, but now there is an attempt...
1/4 Caixin: "Investment in China’s urban rail networks is set to plunge nearly 34% in 2026, the fifth consecutive year of declining capital expenditure, as local governments struggle with mounting operating losses and tighter project-approval requirements." https://t.co/s0B8GEvatW
The Third Gulf War (aka, the ‘Hormuz War’) is entering into its 6th week, at the very end of the initial White House guidance of a 4-6 week campaign. For the oil market, we are into demand destruction territory, although...
“They've demonstrated to the Gulf states how vulnerable they are and how vulnerable the global economy is,” said a European official briefed on diplomatic efforts to end the war. “So the price has gone up. The Strait of Hormuz never...
It wasn’t a surprise. You could see it in the buildup. In the positioning. In the signals across systems. Not just geopolitics — but markets too. Because markets don’t just react. They position. And when multiple signals align, it usually means something bigger is already underway. More on the website. #Geopolitics...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India launches its first census in 15+ years. It will include caste data for the first time in nearly a century. THE GRANULAR DETAIL OF THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE WORLD’S MOST POPULOUS NATION WILL BE EDIFYING. Stay tuned. https://t.co/DL2ZRYi9sW
JUST IN: Vietnam's GDP expanded by 7.83% year-over-year in Q1, down from 8.46% in Q4.
Iran Unwilling To Meet US Negotiators In Pakistan, Talks At 'Dead End', As Trump Says 'A Little More Time' Needed To Open Hormuz: (ZeroHedge)
Qatar is resisting efforts by the U.S. and other regional countries to be a key mediator for a potential cease-fire deal with Iran, complicating efforts to find a way forward for the talks, officials familiar with the matter and mediators...
Chinese government bonds emerge as lone war haven. More on this in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/jQYKfLr6kx
A terrific piece from my #CarnegieAsia teammate @sdjaffrey on how the fuel crisis is forcing politically perilous trade-offs in Indonesia. As conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel costs across Asia, Indonesia faces difficult policy trade-offs over subsidies, inflation,...
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on Iran's free cash flow benefits from the US-Israeli war on Iran: "Who's benefited economically from the war? It's Iran. Because they're exporting more oil than they were before. The price is a lot higher & the...
What Iran’s Control of the Strait of Hormuz Means for the Global Economy #oott #oil #iran @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/zl1MAO5TPp
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry https://t.co/q4PGQdnQp0
China, Europe and why Beijing took a swing at Iran over the Strait of Hormuz Beijing takes a stand at the United Nations at the closure of shipping lanes Despite all the blather about how China benefits from the conflict... https://t.co/dhDbWjo4ip via...
1/12 Caixin: "For the first time, China has embedded a dedicated plan to raise household incomes into a top-level national policy document, signaling a change in priorities as policymakers grapple with persistently weak consumer spending." https://t.co/ynrYu49v8R
Caixin: "For the first quarter of 2026, dim sum issuance totaled nearly 400 billion yuan, up 14% from a year earlier." https://t.co/yksX2koWPr
Exclusive: Russia's Primorsk oil terminal lost 40% of storage to drone attacks, satellite images show https://t.co/zqKHubcFrw
MOSCOW, April 2 (Reuters) - Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz was open for Russia.
🇮🇳While the media highlighted India's first Iranian oil shipment in recent years, Kpler tracking now shows the vessel has been redirected to China. Will get an update tomorrow. Map form @Kpler
