Microsoft Kenya Data Center Stalls, Prompting Near‑Term Sell
Macro: cloud capex shifts; Key: MSFT-G42 $1bn Kenya data center stalled over guaranteed-payments and power; Risks: scale-back, execution/geopolitical; Trade: reduce MSFT near-term. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran's Delays Defy Expectations of Time Pressure
Guys, why is Iran taking its sweet time? I was assured that time was not on their side. https://t.co/CAnxzIdQdX
Iran Blockade Lowers Oil Prices, Confirming Original Prediction
When I first started pushing for an Iran blockade, my main point was that the big rise in oil prices already priced the incremental disruption to supply, so the pros outweighed the cons. That's been borne out. Oil prices are...
China Shifts From Low‑Value Manufacturing to High‑Tech Dominance
China is increasingly dominating high-tech industries, while the low-value manufacturing sectors that powered the country’s rise are becoming less important economic drivers https://t.co/z2ny9xep3S via @WSJ
Trump‑Xi Energy Deal Unlikely: China Won’t Depend on US
Unlike their 2020 phase one agreement, I am skeptical Chinese energy purchases will be a *meaningful* deliverable from Trump-Xi 2.0 for three reasons - Why would China increase its vulnerabilities, becoming dependent on a rival for energy - Trump can't commit to...
China Vows to Curb Local Debt, Boost Growth
1/7 Bloomberg: "China pledged to step up efforts to defuse local government debt risk while supporting growth, as the State Council called for stronger policy execution in a challenging global environment." https://t.co/d7kk0t3Ahy
China Urges Germany to Curb EU Protectionist Drift
China calls on Germany to play “a constructive role” in urging the EU not to stray further toward protectionism https://t.co/exhFDSFfKb https://t.co/gbCkFEP9tx
India’s GDP per Capita Outpaces Peers, Bolstering Modi
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: In India, real GDP per capita has surged WELL ABOVE its emerging market peers. Under PM Modi, rising living standards and strong economic growth have pushed India AHEAD. STRONG ECONOMY = PUTS WIND IN MODI’S SAILS. https://t.co/UdkHTnINmZ
China's Central Bank Adds Gold for 18th Month
After adding 5 tons of gold to its war chest in March, the People’s Bank of China purchased another 8.1 tons in April. This marks the 18th consecutive month that China has increased its gold reserves. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/jPZkT7Ljpc
Putin Says Ukraine War Nearing End, Names Schroeder for Talks
MOSCOW, May 9 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that he thought the Ukraine conflict was coming to an end. Asked if he was willing to engage in talks with the Europeans, he said the preferable figure was...
Employment Shifts Are Natural Amid China, AI Shocks
When worrying about China shocks and AI shocks it is worth remembering that shifts in the structure of employment are inherent to the process of modern economic growth. Featured in today`s Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/ZVFw6lleGb
China Urges France to Push EU for Open Markets
China says it hopes France will play an active role in encouraging the EU to keep its markets open https://t.co/FZXFix0KRq https://t.co/K0oLTDpdnR
Oil Inventories Plummet, Raising Spike and Shortage Risks
Bloomberg: “The world has burned through oilinventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf… The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer, leaving governments...
Emerging Markets Showing Unprecedented Relative Strength
I've never seen such relative strength in Emerging Markets... of course, I was in high school from 2003-2006 (not looking at charts) $EEM @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/Z5B2ZbCVtI
Rising Chip Prices Boost Chinese Export Volume Growth
Estimating Chinese export and import volumes is challenging now, as rising chip prices are pushing up export and import prices -- if March prices carried over, April export volumes were around 15% ... and export volume growth is accelerating at the...
Pre‑Trump China Talks Spark Hope, but Doubts Linger
The timing is notable, coming just days before President Trump’s trip to China. Some hope these talks will foster more constructive relations on trade, security, and technology. Others see little chance of breakthroughs, given the challenges in this bilateral relationship. #economy...
Russia’s Revived Commodity Wealth Fuels Putin’s Renewed Aggression
Putin didn’t suddenly become belligerent because of NATO. The real shift was power. As commodity revenues returned, Russia regained options, confidence and leverage. And with that came the re-emergence of much older ambitions. That was the moment the trajectory changed. #Geopolitics #Russia #Putin #Ukraine...
China's April Export Surge Reaffirms Trade as Stabilizer
JUST IN: China's export growth sped up in April after a short slowdown in March, underscoring trade's role as a main economic stabilizer.
Tariff Outlook and S&P 800
Just returned from Paris and London-interesting meetings with the GIC hosted at the Banque de France. @SamuelRines and @JeffWeniger joined me for a recap of the key discussion in Paris, Sam’s take on tariffs and the trend for S&P 8000. Debating...
Markets Mask Deep Disruptions with False Confidence
We're seeing major disruptions, yet prices and trading patterns reflect high confidence that everything is fine. That's far from the truth... #finance #globalmarkets #geopolitics https://t.co/JwZT4baTcm
Setback Targets Global Tariff, Not US‑China Talks
Will push back a bit against Dr. Prasad's take here, and the NYT headline framing the "122" decision as a set back for the US in the negotiations with China. The actual set back is to any attempt to generate a...
Korea, Taiwan Post Record Surpluses Amid Currency Weakness
The surpluses of Korea and Taiwan this year will be incredible The fact that these surpluses coincide with a historically weak Korean won and continued deep weakness in the Taiwan dollar is most interesting
Iran Risk Still Unpriced, Arab Spring 2.0 Delayed
Arab Spring 2.0 - part of my "Iran Risk Not Priced In" - is not removed only delayed.😢 @anasalhajji
US Slaps Anti-Dumping Duties on Chinese Pea Protein Exporters
Chinese ag-industrial policy story: the US is already levying anti-dumping duties on the following Chinese bio/ag tech firms that were selling underpriced pea protein to the USA. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/jYxMe3342A
China's Imports Stall While Exports Surge, Creating Trade Imbalance
Chinese import growth has stopped tracking with Chinese domestic demand growth. With Chinese export volumes growing much faster than global trade, there is now enormous gap -- an imbalance -- in China's trade https://t.co/BhObwF49bG
Markets Misjudge Iran War's Real Economic Impact
Before you get too excited, NO, I'm not giving away any financial advice. However, whatever the global markets are doing right now doesn't match the physical reality of the Iran war. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/DXHqzdL8af #globalmarkets #geopolitics https://t.co/YYy1ac7Ki6
Small Chinese Banks Squeezed by Real‑estate Exposure, Limiting Credit
1/2 Good Caixin article on the acute problems faced by Chinese banks as they are forced to pile into real estate assets that backed defaulted property loans: "The problem is most acute for smaller lenders", draining their capacity to lend to...
China’s City Stimulus May Bottom Top‑tier Housing Markets
China Daily: "A new wave of stimulus policies launched in the past week by key Chinese cities, including Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Wuhan, is expected to lower homebuying costs and boost market confidence, paving the way for the housing market...
China’s Covert Oil Import Cuts Cap Prices, Flatten Differentials
COLUMN: China is quietly slashing oil imports, an invisible hand that's rebalancing the market in the middle of the Hormuz closure. (The shift has not only capped benchmark oil prices, but also triggered a collapse in physical differentials) @Opinion https://t.co/GND1uXtbwV
US‑Iran Clash in Hormuz Threatens Global Oil Flow
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran are fighting again in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has recently attacked ships and the US has hit back. This area moves 20% of the world’s oil every day. If the fighting gets...
China’s Imports Trail Global Trade and GDP Growth
in volume terms China's imports have lagged both global trade and China's reported GDP growth bigly https://t.co/GytLVBfdJq
Call Out China Threat, Drop “Imbalance” Rhetoric
Hauge to me and Pettis: "Don't hide behind the language of "imbalances." If you think China is a competitive threat and that wealthy nations should actively use industrial policy to keep it at bay, say so" I object to the idea...
Gulf Tensions Are Noise; US Remains Indispensable
The latest Gulf “escalation” looks more like noise than a strategic shift. Iran keeps proving the Strait can’t be secured. The U.S. keeps proving it can’t be ignored. Saudi & Kuwait reopening access to the US acknowledges they can’t defend themselves alone. https://t.co/UbTcninmEd #Oil...
Trump‑Xi Summit May Rival Nixon‑Mao 1972 Historic Meeting
.@tomfriedman: “The summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing next week could be the most significant encounter between American and Chinese leaders since Richard Nixon met Mao Zedong in Beijing in 1972.” https://t.co/AATXBhthnH
Korea's Stocks Surge 200% Over Past Year
If you're wondering why Korea is up 200% in the past year... via @DeutscheBank https://t.co/RzRnRQCUF2 https://t.co/dAFDIzNDQq
Iran, U.S. Mulling One‑Page Plan to Reopen Hormuz
NYT: Three senior Iranian officials say Tehran and the United States are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal. https://t.co/X7quMi0g38
US‑Iran Peace Talks Resume as China Hosts Diplomats
The news that the U.S. and Iran are moving toward restarting peace talks came as Tehran’s foreign minister visited Beijing, throwing a spotlight on President Trump’s own coming trip to China and the pivotal role the two powers could play...
UK and Costa Rica Join CPTPP, Spreading Asian Innovation Globally
There was a time when the United States and the transatlantic West were supposed to be the rule-makers while a lot of analysts reduced Asia to being nothing more than rule-takers. Not that Costa Rica is a big economy, but...
Markets Remain Calm Amid Two-Month Iran War
I had the pleasure of joining @PTertzakian & @JackieForrest on the Arc Energy Ideas podcast to talk about the shockingly calm market reaction to more than 2 months of Iran War—what I call the Sanguine Strait Stoppage. Long-time listener, first time...
Iran's Regime Endures Hardship; Bombings Fail to Curb Missiles
I think we all knew that the Iranian regime is capable of withstanding extreme economic hardship given that the leadership cares nothing for the population. The fact that the bombing campaigns did little to neuter Iran's ability to launch missiles regionally...
Hint Reveals Why Hormuz Reopening Stalls, Questions Unasked
“I’m not trying to solve a puzzle here, Dr. Kimble…” “Well, I am trying to solve a puzzle…& I just found a big piece.” This story offers a hint about what’s taking so long to re-open Hormuz, but no one seems to...
Shell CEO Warns Prolonged Recovery After Hormuz Closure
Shell CEO Wael Sawan: "The journey back [from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz" will be a long one."
War's Impact on Growth: A Rare Data Point
There don’t seem to be that many data points showing the war affecting economic growth, but here’s one. https://t.co/UiPUCa7s5S
Senator Daines Leads Long‑Overdue Senate Delegation to China
Daines Leads Delegation of U.S. Senators to China - Senator Steve Daines Long overdue....will marginally improve understanding of China within the Beltway.... https://t.co/m8sIEfO7ay
Trump’s Trade Deal Signals U.S. Relinquishes China Strategy
Trump’s Board of Trade Move Signals the U.S. has Given Up on Changing China The U.S. president is set to agree on a new framework for U.S.-China commerce at his summit with Xi Jinping, but the details could prove tricky. Keep expectations...
Iran's Response Could Trigger Biggest Risk‑on Rally This Year
🇮🇷 Iran is expected to respond to the US today on the one-page proposal to end the war. The memo would kick off a 30-day negotiation window on nuclear issues, sanctions, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is crashing and global...
Geopolitics May Drive Elevra’s Full‑Control Bid
Does geopolitics trump valuation? In a world of FORGE, US-Australia critical minerals alliances and Congressional hearings on Chinese market behavior, will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Key question is what does Elevra do? Stay in a JV with Huayou and...
Japan Dispatches Senior Minister with PM’s Five‑point Proposal to ADNOC
Japan sent a senior minister for talks with the CEO of ADNOC, with a personal letter from the Prime Minister containing 5 proposals. No details on the proposals.
EU Trade Chief Warns Against China Deal, Eyes New Tools
1/6 SCMP: "The EU’s top trade official used her departing appearance at the EU Parliament to pour cold water on the prospect of an investment deal with China, hinting that new weapons for dealing with Chinese “macroeconomic imbalances” could be on...
US-Israeli Conflict Cuts India’s Airline Capacity 22%
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, India’s airlines are getting SQUEEZED. Air India's international capacity fell 22% in April from a year ago. AIR INDIA SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/gGIU65FEcV