Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
President Donald Trump postponed by two weeks his threat to attack civilian infrastructure across #Iran, as negotiators inched closer to a ceasefire deal that will see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/jaoOe5416G
ASP Isotopes to the rescue? $ASPI Strategically positioned in geopolitically neutral South Africa and bolstered by the backing of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), ASP’s Virginia Gas Project - integrated through the Renergen acquisition - stands as a...
The IMF is poised to cut its forecasts for global growth as a result of the Iran war, and sees danger in a world economy that’s ill-equipped to respond to shocks, the Kristalina Georgieva says https://t.co/KcfFIhk4sU via @jdorosario @sdonnan https://t.co/1P3OgECM3e
Two points that remain top of mind for me. How do you solve these? 1. Delays that don't open the Strait keeps negative carry on the stock market https://t.co/xqJjSx51rF 2. Iran is not going to open the Strait for a ceasefire and forego...
Happy to see the IMF has noticed the expansion of global current account imbalances -- And guess what, the IMF seems to have rediscovered the idea that currency manipulation can drive imbalances (though manipulation has been renamed "macro-industrial policy" ......
🚨 Pakistan requesting Iran: ➡️ Open straight of Hormuz for 2 weeks ➡️ Ceasefire for two weeks ➡️ Trump to extend deadline for 2 weeks ➡️ Meanwhile, Iranian official tells Reuters: exchanges via mediators still ongoing (😇 this morning it was cutoff?)
Indeed, an important question -- Ever since the 301 tariffs were introduced, the exports that China reports to the US have far exceeded US imports -- and now the gap is exceptionally big 1/3 https://t.co/b1eDSKKtRz
Two weeks ago, we scooped that the Trump administration was modeling the impact of oil prices reaching as high as $200 a barrel due to the #IranWar. Dated Brent oil just hit a record about $144...
MUST READ: “General Caine […] also flagged the enormous difficulty of securing the Strait of Hormuz and the risks of Iran blocking it. Mr. Trump had dismissed that possibility on the assumption that the regime would capitulate before it came...
".... The only long-term solution is new infrastructure—making a massive, internationally coordinated investment in energy corridors that bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely... " -- @amoshochstein https://t.co/hvu4ACTwok
I sat down with @JoshYoung, CIO of Bison Interests - the fund that returned 349% in a single year on oil. He told me this war is far from over. And the real crisis hasn't even started. "I don't think the market...
The US Energy Information Administration (@EIAgov) is now forecasting a rather long disruption to crude oil production in the Persian Gulf. (Note this is wellhead production rather than flows via Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't appear to include natural gas liquids,...
Iran has successfully penetrated Saudi Arabia's missile defense systems. The strikes caused major damage to energy infrastructure, & those bypass options just went out the window. If strikes continue, nearly ~7 million barrels per day could go offline for years. #crude...
Rubio this morning on the impact of the Iran war: "The whole world’s been impacted unfortunately because Iran is violating every law known by striking commercial vessels in the Straits of Hormuz, and it’s a big problem for the world."
This energy crisis calls for all hands on deck & international cooperation I'll meet Monday with IMF Managing Director @KGeorgieva & World Bank President Ajay Banga on our institutions' work to support governments amid the economic impacts of the Iran war...
They are drunk in fantasyland over at WFG: "The team at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute has a base case that sees a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz occur relatively soon, as well as limited damage to Middle Eastern...
Stricter Chinese scrutiny of offshore vehicles a blow for tech and biotech IPO candidates Mainland’s stock market watchdog is discouraging establishment of ‘red-chip-structured’ companies in sensitive industries https://t.co/Pj3ZJqdAAm
Translation: MUCH less US dollar recycling... More gold, more yuan; less USD, less UST... #NATO #Iran #Hegemony
The future of global trade won’t depend on the Strait of Hormuz via @FT https://t.co/Xiqe7HbQuN
Note that the Chinese readout doesn't mention energy security at all. Elephant in the room is China's fuel export ban. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China last year.
Rupiah at Record Low of 17,080. It’s not just the war. Polisi fiskal memberi bebanan. Between 2025 and April 2026: •Rupiah jatuh 5% in 2025 •Deficit 2.92% of GDP, widest in several years. •Foreign investors sold off bonds •Bank Indonesia (BI) buys govt bonds...
Bloomberg: "The moves [by local courts to limit the volume of forced property sales by slowing the number of cases involving defaulted mortgages] underscore how China’s local institutions are working to limit the damage of a yearslong property crisis that...
In case you missed the posting of my new eBook over Easter weekend👇https://t.co/AzOGN20mu3 The April 2025 US tariffs triggered global trade conflict. This column introduces World War Trade: Conflict, Containment, and the Emergent World Trading Order, a new CEPR Rapid...
What Iran means for the dollar: a perfect storm for the petrodollar - Deutsche Bank Research Institute https://t.co/gVdGKCUzyc Why have fiat as an intermediary when you could trade oil tokens for wheat tokens (or whatever) ? https://t.co/ocO6m7zPVd
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: On February 28th, President Erdogan condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and warned that if diplomacy and common sense do not prevail, the region could be dragged into a “ring of fire.” ERDOGAN'S 'RING OF FIRE' WAS...
How China Helped Iran Cushion the Blow of Sanctions and Fund Its War Machine—Over the past half decade, China has provided Iran with a financial lifeline by buying most of its oil @RoryWSJ @BrianSpegele @austinramzy https://t.co/36s4JdH6hU https://t.co/36s4JdH6hU
The Gulf Arab states may seek alliances with Turkey, China, India, & Japan says @MahmoudianArman The US war ruined their futures by destroying foreign investment based on perception of stability #Gulf #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #MiddleEast https://t.co/GyYMSu7OKQ
Ok, I get it, so...the IRGC wants to choke China and help the US LNG industry by preventing Qatari LNG from reaching China. https://t.co/ERTjvf1YSU
It will be a while before America can look another ally directly in the eye Source: Visual Capitalist https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/ig02-countries-losing-trust-in-the-u-s/
BNE Intellinews claims that the Iranian rial is "losing ground as military strikes hit infrastructure across the country". WRONG. FACT: Since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs the USD. https://t.co/6tlVgFd2Lt
Here’s another one: Many on X seem to forget that Europe also tried to separate from the US 16 years ago, when Putin said Russia would join the Eurozone, which would have married Russian energy with German engineering, a combo...
Three years from now, we’ll look back at this and call it what it is, a blip. Nothing is stopping the momentum in this region. The UAE is becoming a powerhouse in AI and the economics are simply too strong to ignore....
The market has been surprisingly calm given the growing uncertainty in Iran. It is signaling that it expects a resolution. We are one President Trump tweet away from a face ripping rally. 💪🏻⏳🚀 https://t.co/PC697j3Xeb
The British-led effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by forming a coalition without U.S. involvement is just unrealistic. Here's why... #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/lVUq1LEnA7
Just FYI, with reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (it cannot be objectively assessed as fully closed), China risks losing roughly 40 to 50 percent of its oil imports, which come from Gulf producers whose exports transit the Strait,...
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran 5 weeks ago, the Iranian rial as APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA (READ: PROPGANDA MACHINE) REMAINS SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/9n42ihPYE9
Yes...we do get something from the Persian Gulf. 8% of US imports come from the Middle East. More importantly, when you lose Middle East oil, all other oil goes up in price and demand.
We did an awesome interview on the physical layout and flow of goods resulting from the Strait of Hormuz, with @mercoglianos. Listen here. https://t.co/jmVFr6LS8L
Hormuz Watch - Iran just rejected the peace proposal, but this video still lays out the issues at hand. #oatt https://t.co/0psvZMn12p
China IPOs jump 56% as regulator eases restrictions to drive tech innovation Funds raised on the mainland’s three exchanges in the first quarter topped 25.7 billion yuan, compared with 16.5 billion yuan a year earlier https://t.co/yJkQKKH5LK
Okay, so here’s how how the ceasefire cookie crumbles: - A ceasefire without the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will likely be unacceptable to the US. - A ceasefire with a reopening will likely be unacceptable to Iran. Iran appears serious...
China moves upstream in production networks. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/z8YSI2hXDR
A ceasefire is coming. Two things will get repriced quickly when that happens. Oil futures will tumble and the Dollar will fall sharply. The latter is up on safe haven inflows to the US. All those inflows will unwind very...
From the Bloomberg article on “Saudi Arabia rais[ing] the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium.” This price development coincides with more Asian governments worrying about physical energy supplies—marking part of what I’ve termed "Phase...
MyPOV: the middle east to the rescue. Gulf Funds Near Deal to Back Paramount’s $81 Billion Takeover of Warner https://t.co/hTIMzrGhf5
The Geopolitics of the Skies – Why Chinese Carriers are Redrawing the Global Aviation Map "The closure of Russian airspace to North American and European airlines has forced a rerouting that is as expensive as it is exhausting." https://t.co/HFTgbU023Q
"The problem is there was never enough cash to fund all his [Crown Prince MBS] ambitious initiatives." Indeed. That's why measures lie the balance of payments breakeven are useful. The Saudis needed $90 plus oil -- or near...
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Due to foreign debt repayments, Pakistan's foreign reserves are set to shrink by a STUNNING ONE-THIRD this month. PAK = THIRD WORLD = IN THE TANK. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/QKr6kb5Sop
🇮🇳India’s Russian crude imports rebound sharply — up nearly 94% in March MoM and 10% YoY. https://t.co/O0zIu8LcIi
An interesting question to ponder is whether Chinese overcapacity is essentially indirectly subsidizing the electrification of the "global south". It's similar to countries buying oil on the cheap, typically to stockpile. At the moment, oil is of course not cheap....
