Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens today is completely wrong if this proves true.
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again...
India and Pakistan are a fascinating A/B test in modernization. After India threw off its socialist yoke, things really started accelerating. 2000 onward it’s a rocket ship. https://t.co/jBihDMGtl9
This is a critical point -- China's JV requirements worked b/c China had to approve investments (so it had leverage) generally speaking & b/c China had relatively high tariffs (25% on autos) and an undervalued exchange rate so there was a...
US Defence Secretary Hegseth says there is "not clear evidence" that Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz
NEW ODD LOTS: What War in Iran means for the 'teapot' oil refineries in China. @tracyalloway and I talk to @Erica_Downs_ about what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Chinese energy security. https://t.co/ZdGwLQJV8E
Macro Pros @Hedgeye remain short Indonesia in $IDX terms Down another -3.0% overnight, collapsing -13.1% in the last month alone #GoAnywhere https://t.co/Ny66xrqpv3
COLUMN: The White House is running out of ways to curb rising oil prices. "... My working assumption is that the oil market will add $3 to $6 a barrel to the headline price for every day — every single...
"I wouldn't say business is as usual, but the Israeli tech economy keeps on ticking." Here is half of my CNBC interview with Sara Eisen on Israeli resilience, Iran risk discount for Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and much more....
"There is no reason, whether or not Trump declares that war is over, to think that Iran will not continue for some time to threaten to destroy the ships that try. Why should they stop?" --- Exactly, Trump cannot TACO. If he...
I kid you not... The same White House that forgot that didn't realize that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, is now arguing (through Ron Vara) that the war is a good idea because it'll prevent Iran from closing...
The International Energy Agency (IEA) just authorized a 400 million barrel reserve release to offset oil disruptions caused by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That stabilizes markets—for now. However, with global demand at around 100 million...
VIDEO EXPLAINER: The most important map of the Third Gulf War — the oilfields, the Strait of Hormuz, and the bypass pipelines. Plus a look at how, two weeks into the war, Iran is still exporting lots of its oil,...
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
Saudi Arabia is booking more and more super oil tankers at sky high rates (>$450,000 a day vs pre-war levels of $100,000 a day) to shift crude from the Red Sea into global markets.
...and yet, the Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed, for the 13th day. Why? 🤔 At some point, investors are going to understand why this is; when they do, it is going to be very bad for both stocks AND...
The IEA says the war in turning into the biggest oil disruption in world history https://t.co/UJZqGyrhUP
NYT op-ed: “For years, Washington’s Latin America policy has oscillated between neglect and alarmism…The result is a region that has learned to nod to U.S. concerns while quietly cashing Chinese checks.” https://t.co/fuVrwW6AHG
South America: A resource-rich and still largely unexplored region undergoing one of the most significant political and economic transformations in its history. https://t.co/jXGUJd5RMi https://t.co/uc8dlJv1f5
Today I learned that Iran's GDP growth rate pre-Islamic revolution was 5%-9% a year, and that's dropped to 2% year in the ensuing 40 years. Iran had been on pace to be a South Korean or Turkey-style developed country before...
A pretty great conversation with @ed_elson_ and the FT's Katie Martin about what financial markets can tell us at critical moments, and what they're telling us about the war in Iran and America's place in the world. https://youtu.be/Jr7X0tlOl1k?si=9FjFHp0n13n6dPoL
March 3, 2026 edition of FFTT: "Iran doesn't need to defeat the US military; just the UST market" March 11, 2026: "S&P has warned that the Middle East conflict is beginning to strain credit channels across multiple sectors" https://t.co/pnftNUeht5
1/6 Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war. The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of...
President Donald Trump said he didn’t believe Iran was laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Asked Wednesday whether Iran had laid mines in the strait, Trump told reporters, “We don’t think so. Trump also urged oil companies to send their...
Clever marketing by Ireland. Most of this is private investment that would have happened anyway. And trivial compared to the tax gains Ireland is reaping from US firms -- Eli Lilly disclosed tax payments to Ireland of $6.6...
A conversation between me and PGIM's Daleep Singh (recorded before the bombs started falling on Tehran) that covers a number of big macro themes -- including the persistence of an unhealthy and unbalanced forms of globalization. https://t.co/9i02acEiiE
Frustrating. China won't use the "clean" balance sheet of the central government to support a real recovery from the prolonged property market slump. The net result: a rising trade surplus supports China's growth at the expense of its trading...
Inside the G7 (and the G20) most countries are absolutely livid with the Trump administration's attack on Iran, but don't mistake their indignation with a desire to let Iran take the global economy hostage via oil. G7/G20/OECD nations will respond...
Brazil and Saudi Arabia launch a critical minerals working group and seek Saudi funding for Brazil mapping. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/brazil-saudi-arabia-to-cooperate-for.html
I was interviewed two weeks ago by Mark Sobel at OMFIF about the outlook for the Chinese economy. It just came out. https://t.co/d6LFlYcl14
There are many narratives that are regularly spun by the spinners. One is that the UAE is more than a sunny place where shady people reside. Another is that it is a booming economy. Wrong. When you look at the data, the...
China’s exports SURGED by 21.8% in the first 2 months of 2026. Trump’s international trade war is BACKFIRING. Thanks to Trump, CHINA IS WINNING THE TRADE WAR, BIG-TIME. https://t.co/h0s5xlnA1N
"Beijing is not allergic to spending. It is just not confident about spending that gives households too much autonomy over how to use the money." --@ZichenWanghere Very good read on the need for rural pension reform, among other things https://t.co/HMmzkQ9ZMn https://t.co/sEMkJotQeP
G7 head of state and/or government will hold a video call Wednesday to discuss the impact of the Third Gulf War, particularly around the “energy situation” and the Strait of Hormuz. The call is scheduled for 2pm GMT. I doubt this...
“… Right now it looks like the Gulf - especially the UAE - is spending something like $28 in defense for every $1 Iran spends on offense […] that's not a long-term equation anyone wants to …”
As the U.S. becomes more transactional and predatory, Norway and Iceland are now considering EU membership to add a bit more security. #eu #geopolitics https://t.co/ziNWQ6FQIW
Pakistan says it has launched a naval operation to protect its “energy lifelines.” In some ways expected: oil importing nations in Asia may step in protecting their own tankers. (Importantly, Pakistan has a defence treaty with Saudi Arabia, and buys...
The Iran War is shifting toward civilian infrastructure. Israel is targeting fuel depots around Tehran, & Iran struck a desalination facility in Bahrain. Further escalation could carry serious economic & humanitarian consequences. Access Peter's 3/11 Q&A https://t.co/mlYf8sohf4 https://t.co/Azea9LqQlh
Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the...
Oil market isn't going the way Iran hoped. Amazing what the Saudi/UAE pipelines can do, plus the (very clear) threat of SPR release. Plus, oil crisis are defined by price x duration. Without a feared long disruption, investors aren't chasing oil futures...
What impact will closing the Strait of Hormuz have? ING takes a guess featured in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/aiQTNxvQMb
It's a while since the last IEA emergency oil release, so I put together a briefing note on how it works in practice as it follows a strict technical and diplomatic protocol. The below is a (simplified) guide to follow...
INDIA GAS SHORTAGE 🇮🇳 ⚠️ India invoked emergency powers to redirect LPG away from industrial users to households LNG supplies to petrochemical and power plants are being curbed The crisis in the Middle East is throttling India’s LPG and LNG supply https://t.co/ujn00XTSnf
We're in a goldilocks environment for EM commodity exporters like Brazil and South Africa. Brent has fallen significantly, which is good for risk appetite. But it's still 20% above where it was before hostilities. That's good for EM commodity exporters......
Trump yesterday said war will be over soon. Oil tumbled. As I signaled over the weekend, better to steer clear of the frenzy around oil and focus on EM differentiation. That theme's only been traded for a few days and...
As strikes shake the Middle East and oil prices soar, what are the global ramifications of the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran? 🎥 Tune in LIVE as @TimOBrien discusses with @JavierBlas and @MarcChampion1 Tuesday, March 10 @ 8:30 am EDT...
As the US-Iran war goes on, focus on oil flow and not on oil production: What matters now is exports ex Strait of Hormuz, not well head output in KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Iraq. Yes, later is deteriorating, but former...
The comments from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on the East-West pipeline, the last (and only partial) line of defence of the oil market against the Strait of Hormuz disruption (other than a SPR release) For background, my @Opinion column from...
