Iran's Hormuz Control Threatens Global Energy Security
Security of Global Energy System Hinges on Iran If Iran asserts sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the dominoes begin to fall as other supply chokepoints are contested. PS - This morning, Iran resumed control of tanker traffic in the Strait #iranwar https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/security-of-global-energy-system
Latin America Leads Rebound, Outperforming US Stocks
One of the more important developments over the past few weeks has been the resilience of LatAm’s outperformance relative to US equities. These markets didn’t just hold up well during the selloff — they remained remarkably firm. And in the rebound, they’ve...
Trust Deficit Drives Fragmented, Fluid Global Supply Chains
World order and trade. What are they when trust is lacking? When countries look at their needs against that backdrop? Risk not resilience will be key. Fragmentation. Supply chains must have manageable, dynamic fluidity. 2nd and 3rd orders will be...
Iranian Navy Closes Strait, Reports Gunfire Amid Peace Talks
Iran's Navy Tells Ships Strait of Hormuz Shut Again, Two Vessels Report Gunfire. Will there be a negotiated peace? https://t.co/SmiW8IKxcq
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico Illogical in Hyper‑Globalized Trade
1/3 Putting tariffs on Canada and Mexico makes no sense at all, even though they run trade surpluses with the US. That's because in a hyper-globalized world, trade imbalances are always resolved systemically, never bilaterally. https://t.co/M382OjWzJ2
Iran Tightens Hormuz, US Blockade Stalls Peace Prospects
Iran reimposed Strait of Hormuz restrictions as US continues blockade of Iran ports. Are there peace negotiations while this happens? Is either side meaningful when it comes to peace? And the global economy?
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Shock Levels
The past 7 weeks of conflict have seen capital outflows from EM that were almost as bad as during COVID, which was a massive shock. I'll talk about this and where we are on the Strait of Hormuz (is it...
Iran Shuts Hormuz Strait, Threatening Global Oil Flow
‼️ HAPPENING NOW: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again after US refuses to end blockade. Global oil supply route could be at risk again https://t.co/yrGUN6Izcw
Iran Vows to Keep Hormuz Closed Amid US Port Blockade
Iran has rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would continue to block transit through the hugely important waterway as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
US Renews Russian Oil License, Boosting Putin Amid Iran War
Having said two days ago that the U.S. wouldn’t renew a general license easing Russian oil sanctions, the @USTreasury did exactly the opposite: renew it. Vladimir Putin keeps benefiting from the U.S.-Iran war: higher prices and American sanctions waivers. Double...
IMF Forecasts Resilient Global Growth Through 2025
Explaining the Resilience of Global Growth in 2025 from the IMF. Lower tariffs or other variables? More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/54emD8YVH4
Oil Dips, but Hormuz Ceasefire Keeps Markets Wary
Oil prices are falling, but don't celebrate at the pump just yet. The Strait of Hormuz is "open" — for now. We're 5 days into a 10-day ceasefire. A lot can still change. https://t.co/RUshSF8tJh
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Levels, Live Stream Tomorrow
I'm doing a live stream tomorrow morning at 9:30 am (ET) with a summary of all the chatter around this week's IMF/WB Spring meetings, including a discussion of this chart, which shows that EM outflows over the past month were...
Hormuz Closure Could Cut Global Energy, Drop GDP 10%
With Iran tensions flaring, a Strait of Hormuz shutdown could slash 10% of global energy. That means a straight 10% GDP collapse, no ifs or buts.
Goldman Sachs Boosts MSCI EM Target, Forecasts 10% Upside
GS: We raise our 12m MSCI EM target by ~4% to 1750, implying ~10% upside over 12 months $EEM $VWO https://t.co/Yxz4w8EPPv
North Asia EPS Upgrade Raises MSCI EM Forecast
GS: Upgrades to North Asia EPS growth push our 2026/27 MSCI EM EPS growth forecast to 34%/14% from 23%/13% https://t.co/jK4UGxp0LY
India Pays for Iranian Oil in Yuan, Bypassing Dollars
🇮🇳🇮🇷 India is settling payments for Iranian oil in Chinese yuan instead of US dollars.🤯
Apollo CEO Sees Iran Conflict Boosting Gulf Business Confidence
What Apollo CEO Marc Rowan told me about how he’s thinking about the war in Iran: “I view what’s happening as stabilizing. I view this as ultimately good for business confidence, investment, particularly in the Gulf where I’m very bullish...
China‑Gulf Ties Could Deepen Despite Iran‑focused U.S. Narrative
This would be quite interesting if it happens and is a reflection of why so much of the Washington chatter about how the China/Gulf story is somehow only an "Iran" story misses a lot. The story is on background and...
US Oil Blockade Opens Strait, Offers Ukraine Lessons
Big thanks to @biannagolodryga for having me on @CNN to talk about the US blockade of Iranian oil and its role in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Lots of lessons to learn here, especially on how the West confronts...
Mutual Export Controls Harm US, China—Time for Careful Rollback
As I have noted in several posts over the past year, there is a growing recognition that both the US and China have pushed export controls to levels that are damaging to each other’s economies. A Deal Waiting to Be...
Misguided Hot Takes Misrepresent Indonesia's Nuanced Foreign Policy
No kidding, really? Folks with all the nutty hot takes this week about how Indonesia has "jumped in bed with Washington" and is "booting China" from Southeast Asia in some American game of 463D chess have clearly never actually set...
Half of Global Markets Rebound Amid Iran Conflict
"Looking across 46 different country ETFs since the start of the Iran war, the global picture looks far more resilient than headlines and the chattering media's pundits would suggest. Nearly half of the world's major markets -- 20 out of...
War Slashes Growth in Middle East, Low‑Income Nations
The impact of the war on the global economy as measured by revisions to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook: a very significant hit to the Middle East itself and Low-income Developing Economics. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in...
Markets Rally as Hormuz Reopens, Oil Prices Plunge
Stocks surged Friday after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, easing supply fears and sending oil prices sharply lower. The Dow jumped more than 700 points while major indexes hit...
China's GDP Growth only Loosely Mirrors Real Economy
CER: "There is obviously to some extent a relationship between China's GDP growth number and the real economy. Although we don’t know exactly how closely those two things match." https://t.co/ARbicIVAH8
Trump Claims Iran Clearing Hormuz Sea Mines
US President Donald Trump says Iran is "removing" all sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz
Reducing East Asia Surplus Key to Global Economic Balance
Global adjustment really does hinge on bringing down East Asia's surplus -- and of course also brining down the deficit of the US and the UK The second China shock already solved for Germany's surplus https://t.co/CQ5w2tBmTD
Strait of Hormuz Reopens—Durability and Ship Commitment Key
The reported reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is undoubtedly a welcome relief for the global economy. Needless to say, its true impact depends on the durability of this reopening, which will require sustained confidence-building measures from all three...
Six‑Month Iran Deal Raises Strait‑of‑Hormuz Uncertainty
Europe and Gulf leaders thin six months for Iran war deal. If so, will the Strait stay open? For all?
Hormuz Reopens, Markets Surge as Oil Plummets
STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS OPEN. WAR IS OVER?! Iran reopens the Strait. Oil down -13% $SPX at record highs. $NDX logs its longest win streak since 2009. Dollar easing, gold and $BTC ripping The single biggest lock on markets just cleared. US-Iran...
Diversify Globally for Outsized Returns Beyond the US
Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the US?’ 15 months later: South Korea +179%, Peru +121%, Poland +98% … S&P 500 +18%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify. https://t.co/FgV3vruQ0G
Peace Hopes Boost Turkey's Gold Reserves Amid Costly Peg
Prospects of peace are helping Turkey. The central bank's gold holdings rose for the first time in data for the week of April 10. Gold holdings are now down 123 tons since the start of the conflict, which is worth...
World Bank Mulls $2B Loan as Argentina Eyes Dollarization
#ArgentinaWatch 🇦🇷: The World Bank is considering loaning Argentina up to $2B to help refinance its debt. Stuck with junk-rated bonds, Argentina is leaning on multilateral development banks for finance. IT'S TIME FOR THE WORLD’S BIGGEST DEADBEAT TO DITCH THE PESO AND...
Indian Refiners Use Yuan for Iran Oil Purchases
Exclusive: Indian refiners pay for Iran oil in yuan via ICICI Bank, sources say https://t.co/jAwcjfRcHL
Mark Mobius: Early Emerging‑Markets Guru Offers Timeless Investor Lessons
Mark Mobius was among the earliest to recognise the long-term potential of emerging markets. He was a true "Emerging Markets Guru"! His deep research, on-ground understanding & conviction offer enduring lessons for investors. https://t.co/nY0eK5KRBt @MotilalOswalLtd @Pun_ditry
Infrastructure Investment Fuels China’s Q1 Growth Amid Weak Consumption
1/3 NYT: "Strong investments in rail lines and other infrastructure offset weak consumer spending and a shrinking trade surplus as the Chinese economy continued to grow in the first three months of the year." This is exactly it. https://t.co/nM9A94Bq3q
China's Stagnant Imports Pose Bigger Trade Challenge than Exports
1/2 Soumaya Keynes notes that while China's surging exports may be a problem for many countries, they are the smaller problem. The bigger problem is that China's imports have barely grown at all. The more general point is that free trade...
Rupee Weakness Drops India to Sixth in Global GDP Rankings
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: When measured in dollar terms, India falls from 4th to 6th in global GDP rankings. This slip can be laid at the rupee's doorstep. With the rupee down ~11% in FY26, India’s GDP is smaller in dollar terms. India...
Q1 GDP Hits 5.3% Despite Sector Slowdown
1Q GDP (advanced estimate) 5.3% as projected. Slowdown seen across all sectors. By sectors (vs 4Q25): •Services 5.4% (4Q25: 6.3%), •Manufacturing 5.8% (6.1%), •Construction 7.8% (11.0%), •Agriculture 2.8% (5.4%) •Mining & quarrying -1.1% (+2.0%) Sumber DOSM Still good growth nonetheless. BNM full year...
Emerging Markets Set for Strong Post‑Conflict Surge
The coming wave for emerging markets will get stronger in the post-conflict era - #emergingmarkets #EM #dollar #capital #liquidity https://t.co/7DuKFyjwOx
China Triples Export Controls, Turns Supply Chains Into Leverage
In a counterattack to America’s aggressive protectionist measures, China has nearly TRIPLED its use of export controls in the last 5 years. Beijing is turning its supply-chain dominance into geopolitical leverage. CHINA'S MESSAGE = IF YOU ATTACK US, WE WILL COUNTERATTACK....
US Sanctions Backfire, China Gains One‑Third of Iran Trade
In 1995, China accounted for virtually ZERO of Iran's trade. Today, it accounts for 1/3. Ill-advised US sanctions on Iran have BACKFIRED. They’ve allowed China to increase its sphere of influence. https://t.co/JUoFF3ACJR
IMF Resumes Talks, Opening Funding Path for Venezuela
#Venezuela: The IMF will resume formal contact, potentially paving the way for the acting administration of Delcy Rodriguez to regain access to the lender’s financing @jdorosario @europressos https://t.co/AtCHswbuUA
No Detuned GPUs Pushes China to Build XPUs Faster
Agree 100% with Gavin on this one. 1/ Yes China has its own aspirations. The question was how quickly they needed an alternative and the mandates and investment. 2/ NOT selling detuned GPU editions means they’re forced to do the...
Putin Now Publicly Blamed for Russia’s Economic Collapse
More and more often, Putin gets directly and publicly blamed for Russia's collapsing economy. Something that was both unthinkable and very predictable only a year ago. https://t.co/oiTq1OF05N
IMF Senegal Loan Talks Advance, Debt Talks Still Needed
JUST IN: IMF's Senegal loan negotiations are progressing well, but more debt discussions are required.
Peru's Trusted Central Bank Governor Faces Retirement Amid Political Turmoil
Peru is gearing up to elect its 10th president in 10 years, but another serious question weighs on the nation of 35 million people: What happens if its central-bank governor of 20 years retires this year? The central bank has a...
S&P's Low Yield, High PE Pushes Investors Toward LatAm
The S&P 500 is offering one of the lowest dividend yields in nearly 150 years. At the same time, it’s trading at one of the richest cyclically adjusted P/E ratios in history. Ask yourself: What’s the actual upside you’re being compensated for at...
Oil Shock Less Severe; Iran Likely to Restore Flow
Of course the world cannot withstand a 20% supply shock of oil for quarters There are just two weird assumptions included in that: 1) The supply shock is not 20% effectively - far from it actually. The bypassing of the strait...