US Navy Seizes Sanctioned Iranian Oil Smuggler in Asian Waters
JUST IN: US military seized a sanctioned oil vessel smuggling Iranian crude in Asian waters.
China’s Capacity Vs. US Profit: Opposite Resource Gaps
Good post that once again reinforces this: China has abundant capacity but scarce profitability America has abundant profitability but scarce capacity. US is now obsessed and determined to get more capacity (may not work out) Is China equally obsessed and determined to...
China Set to Outpace US in Nuclear Capacity by 2030
Yicai: "China is expected to surpass the United States in operational nuclear power capacity before 2030, becoming the world’s largest, as the country accelerates reactor construction and investment." https://t.co/mmGLIDcA5g
Druckenmiller Vows No China Investments Under Current Leader
Stanley Druckenmiller on investing in China: "We exited China in 2018. We haven’t made a single trade in security there other than their currency once in a while. I will never invest in China as long as the current leader...
RBI's Liquidity Flood Drives Rupee Sharply Lower
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India is DIGGING A HOLE for the rupee. After years of tight management, now the RBI is FLOODING India with liquidity and the rupee is tanking. https://t.co/fy7Uowe3o2
Rapid US Pivot Needed as Mexico Outpaces Growth
Scoop: the sooner he pivots to a great relationship with the USA, the faster the economic and cultural ties will heal. Mexico will eat his lunch. Growth in some economic areas is 6-8% per year, and even Canadian companies are...
Gulf Oil Turmoil Spurs Shift Toward China
US fights Iran. Gulf oil market is roiling. In the meantime, Gulf states are shifting toward China. Day what?!
China’s Decade-Long Goal: Avert Global Economic Catastrophe
Oh, Rudy... I'm so saddened by this line: "China is clearly intervening to get the Iranians to open the strait to prevent a global economic catastrophe." @RudyHavenstein Yes... it has been shown over the last decade that China's primary objective...
Tiny Triggers Can Jeopardize $110 Trillion Economy
turns out it doesn’t take much to hold a $110 trillion global economy at risk.
China’s Auto Export Surge Defies EU Tariffs
The second China shock isn't going to go away on its own, or with half measures -- China's auto exports to Europe, for example, have clearly reaccelerated (even with the narrowly targeted CVDs against battery electric imports) 1/ https://t.co/pdaadEXUrD
USA Rare Earths' Overvalued Deal Boosts
More thoughts on the USA RE/Serra Verde deal. USA Rare Earths is using its massively overvalued paper to buy Brazil's only operating REE mine which should supply 50% of the HREE produced outside China by 2027. But this also puts a...
Did the JCPOA Transfer Hormuz Control to Iran?
Hey, folks, remind me—did the JCPOA cede any go-forward control of the Strait of Hormuz to Tehran? https://t.co/ioeUNlmi56
US Sanctions Waiver Fuels Russian Oil Gains Amid Iran Conflict
Why Russia is the big winner from the US-Iran war US sanctions waiver boosts Russian oil revenues https://t.co/uGny0kDGDL @DeutscheWelle
Pereira: Iran War's Economic Damage Still Unseen
ECB’s Pereira says the economic damage of Iran war has yet to show https://t.co/BXptMUK40T https://t.co/Kd8hPDCLGY
Iranian Ship Seized, Linked to China‑Frequented Fleet
Seized Iranian-Flagged Ship Was Part of Fleet That Frequented China—MV Touska is controlled by sanctioned Iranian company accused of transporting items for potential military use @austinramzy https://t.co/dNGUknky0h https://t.co/dNGUknky0h
UAE's US Backstop Request Reveals Hidden War Fallout
The WSJ reports that the UAE has requested a US financial backstop. As a former member of the UAE's Financial Advisory Council (2008–14), it’s clear to me that the UAE’s request signals that the collateral damage from the US-Israeli war on...
Unending Iran War Could Stall Global Growth to Zero
My take on what would happen to world economic growth if the Iran war continues unabated @MarioNawfal: "My guess is that world growth would sink from the IMF projected 3.1%/yr to pretty close to zero, maybe even negative." FOREVER WARS = FROM...
China Weaponizes Rare‑earth Magnets Amid US‑Japan Tensions
China. Reduces rare earth magnet exports to US and Japan. Why? A topic for Xi-Trump meeting. Counter oil supply drop from Iran? What else may China do?
Egypt, India Keep Floating Currencies to Shield Against Oil Shock
Egypt and India stand alone among the major EMs in allowing their currencies to adjust freely to the spike in oil prices. This will stand them in good stead. A freely-floating exchange rate helps protect you from bad shocks like...
Latin America Markets Surge on Expected Iran Peace, High Oil
At last week's IMF/WB meetings, markets were as bullish as I can remember on Latin America. They're trading an end to the war with Iran and oil prices staying elevated for a while, all of which benefits the region's oil...
Geopolitical Tension Holds Market; One Headline Could Flip It
Monday setup: - Xi calls MBS overnight to open Hormuz (China is cracking) - Iran "maybe" talks round 2 in Islamabad - IRGC won't give up fissile material (deal killer) - SPX -50bp, NQ -40bp into the open One headline flips this market either way....
UAE Can Preserve Peg via Swap Line, Not Reserve Cuts
A lot of this seems preemptive, given UAE’s large existing FX reserves. Using a swap line for a bit to help maintain the currency peg would be seen as less disruptive than trimming reserves.
China's Structural Advantage, Not Tactics, Drives US‑China Trade
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐤𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧'𝐭 𝐚 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐫𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. In my latest piece for @FortuneMagazine , I argue that many CEOs and boards are asking the wrong question about the U.S.-China relationship. They are waiting for a "breakthrough" at...
Japan's 1960s “Excess Competition” Crippled Profitability and Stability
For those who are interested in Japan's recent economic history, and what that may tell us about other economies that copied its growth model, it is worth noting that in Japan, the term “excess competition” (過当競争, katō kyōsō) emerged, mostly...
Asian Economies Highly Vulnerable to Middle East War Fallout
You’ve heard me warn about the vulnerability of several Asian economies to the fallout from the Middle East War, though I haven’t gone as far as this latest analysis in the NYT. #economy #markets #asia @nytimes #middleeastwar
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID-Level Severity
EM "outflows have been almost as bad as during COVID, i.e. they’ve been massive." -Robin J. Brooks, Shadow Price Macro
UAE Threatens Shift From Petrodollar to Yuan
💥JUST IN The UAE has told the U.S. that if it runs short of U.S. dollars, it will be forced to use Chinese yuan or other currencies for oil sales and transactions. The petrodollar is at risk. https://t.co/ENEUL9x7LY
Russia Needs $100 Urals Oil to Close Deficit
“Russia’s ailing economy has failed to recover even as rising oil prices during the war in the Middle East have boosted the Kremlin’s depleted coffers, according to Sweden’s military intelligence chief. Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security...
Taiwan Fights Chip Boom to Protect Undervalued Currency
Taiwan's willingness to do absolutely anything and everything to keep the chip boom from putting pressure on the wildly undervalued Taiwan dollar is unw=matched ... 1/ https://t.co/yVjNKHd7ci
US Blockade Pressures All, Targets Iran Most
Exactly. And this is why this US blockade is genius because it means it won't be just the Iranians that will benefit when it's partially open. The pressure cooker is on for everyone equally, especially Iran.
Global Finance Rattles: UAE, Debt Warnings,
UAE just threatened to ditch the dollar. A former Treasury Secretary is warning of a "vicious" debt crisis. Bitcoin pulled back after hitting $78k last week. Strategy is proposing to pay STRC dividends twice a month. New News Block is live....
US Trade Rep Greer Arrives in Mexico for USMCA Review
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has landed in Mexico City for meetings tomorrow related to the USMCA review. He was received at the airport by Economy Minister @m_ebrard and undersecretary @LuisRosendo_ (Video from Mexico's economy ministry) https://t.co/iweEQKUuJO
US Weakens, China and Russia Gain Power Post‑War
My view on the outcome of the US-Israeli war on Iran w/ @MarioNawfal: "In the Great Geopolitical Game, one great power is going to become weaker: the United States. And two great powers are going to become stronger: China and Russia."...
China’s Oil Stockpile Fuels Profit Amid Global Price Surge
In speaking with oil traders (and checking the data) it is clear that China went on a buyer's strike due to the ongoing high crude and LNG prices. Which means that Beijing loaded up its storage with low oil prices...
Hormuz Tensions Lock Gas Prices Through 2027
Strait of Hormuz uncertainty isn't just pushing up today's gas prices — it's lifting futures through 2027 and beyond. The energy secretary's optimism may already be outdated. Until we get resolution, expensive gas isn't going anywhere soon. https://t.co/NZ4lVvoG5p
Iran's Hormuz Takeover Spikes Oil Risk, Boosts Gold Demand
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-Asia ─────── Iran seizes control of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil shipments and elevating energy market risks. US Navy intercepts and disables Iranian cargo ship Touska, prompting Tehran to vow retaliation that could spike oil prices. Iran...
UAE Threatens Oil Trade Shift to Yuan over USD Shortage
UAE to Trump Administration: "You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY...
UAE Holds Strong Reserves Amid Unreported Figures, Seeks Swap Line
Interesting WSJ story about the Emirates request for a swap line -- the UAE hasn't reported its end March reserves but it went into the conflict with tons of reserves and no shortage of liquid bills in US custodians 1/ https://t.co/5Q61nzi68P
Iran War Fuels Persistent US Inflation Ahead of Midterms
A warning from the Financial Time (which has economic, political and social implications): "war in Iran has unleashed a torrent of inflation in the US that economists warn will linger long after the conflict ends, squeezing Americans ahead of November’s midterm...
China Vows to Weaponize Oil Embargo Against US
American strategists: “We are going to cut off China’s oil, thereby wrecking China.” China’s response? Geopolitical/oil politics version of Good Will Hunting: “Give us the wrench…because f*ck them. That’s why.”
Maekawa Report Reveals Why Japan-China Rebalancing Falters
I have often mentioned Japan's 1986 Maekawa Commission Report as a way of understanding why Japan's (and by extension, China's) rebalancing was never going to be easy. For those who might be interested, I asked ChatGPT to summarize the report...
Global Economy Splits Into Diverging Realities This Week
FYI, the links to my weekly look at the global economy and markets, including what has evolved into a tale of two (if not more) realities. https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-550?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-w4wbe/?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3Btfqi0xMNTveCEbORqFBpMw%3D%3D #economy #markets
China Wins Back Elite Talent, Boosting Tech Outlook
Macro: China reclaims elite talent as US social strain and visa barriers drive returns. Key: media push, R&D incentives, income/prices. Risks: slowdown, geopolitics. Overweight China tech 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
India Switches to Yuan for Iranian Oil Purchases
This reported now in BT but the news several days old. We discussed it in the Daily Energy Report: Iran set the conditions for LPG and oil imports. Desperation is relative. India settles Iranian oil...
US Expands Energy
I have to admit it — it genuinely scares me when my predictions turn out to be right U.S. seeks bigger energy foothold in India.
Houthis Vow Strait Blockade over Trump's Peace Obstruction
JUST IN: Yemen's Houthis threaten to block the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a key trade route, if US President Donald Trump keeps impeding peace efforts.
China’s EV Surge Fuels Bullish Lithium Outlook
China’s EV production capacity: >20 million vehicles/year Actual EV production (2024): ~12.9 million China exported >1.2 million EVs in 2024 Everyone should go long Lithium…
IMF Underestimates Growth After Major Economic Shocks
IMF growth forecasts are much too pessimistic when they come right after big shocks. It was that way in Apr. 2025 after "Liberation Day" and it's like that again now. I talked about this on this morning's live stream that...
Iran Shifts Tactics: Stock Manipulation Over Oil, Gunboats Attack
Can Iranians be pumping and dumping stocks instead of oil? Iranian gunboats fire on tanker after Strait of Hormuz closed again.
Brazil's Lula Calls for P5 Conduct Reform
JUST IN: Lula from Brazil urges the UN Security Council's permanent members to reform their conduct.