Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Pulse
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Bosai plans an Indonesia aluminium smelting project in East Java, highlighting China’s accelerating overseas capacity strategy. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/bosai-indonesia-aluminium-smelting.html
Good Damien Ma piece on Xi Jinping's efforts to shift the Chinese economy from extensive growth (generate growth by increasing labor, capital and resource inputs) to intensive growth (generate growth by using labor, capital and resource inputs more efficiently). For...
@KirkusReviews , 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 1933, 𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥. Kirkus describes the book as “𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤.” The review highlights how China has built industrial capacity to meet 90%...
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: It's hard to beat gold as a central bank reserve. Turkey is reportedly using its HOARD of gold reserves in swap operations to obtain liquidity and defend the Turkish Lira. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/rVUGXc6WeD
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Japanese investment in India’s financial sector has hit a RECORD HIGH. In 2025, Japanese firms invested $8.8 BILLION in Indian businesses. That’s FOUR TIMES the amount invested in 2024. GOOD NEWS FOR INDIA. MORE FDI = MORE GROWTH. https://t.co/C27VI2pF62
Thailand has reached a deal with Iran to allow Thai tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. “An agreement has been reached to allow Thai oil tankers to transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz," Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said...
Many have given great interpretations of China's 15th five year plan. My read is a little different: "For one, lower growth targets will likely be a norm rather than a surprise. Moreover, it implies China is likely at the beginning of...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Indian rupee has PLUNGED to a RECORD LOW. Thanks to the US and Israel's attack on Iran, India is paying a high cost. MODI SHOULD SEND THE BILL TO WASHINGTON DC AND JERUSALEM. https://t.co/T9AjFXiDVU
Feels to me like the effects of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and diesel export capacity is underappreciated by the market.
WSJ: How Trump’s Tariffs Are Choking U.S.-China Trade (with AMAZING charts) by @hannahmiao_ & @CloudberryRoque 🤓 👉🏻 https://t.co/vNeIUWWiqm https://t.co/GB3I7d35ly
Houthis Threaten Red Sea Escalation as Iran War Risks Spreading to Second Shipping Chokepoint https://t.co/9Nypu2iQHO
US special envoy to the Middle East Witkoff says that Iran and US will hold talks soon https://t.co/TVVUeaYqaZ
As I mentioned on Wednesday, there is a $3 trillion gap between China's accumulated current account surplus since the pandemic and China's unchanged reserves (and a corresponding gap in visible flows into the US) Bank flows make up most of the...
In my view, markets are underestimating systemic risks of Middle East War and overestimating systemics risks of private credit
Rebecca Fannin, author of THE NEW TECH TITANS OF CHINA on how the U.S. can respond to China’s growing lead in several tech areas including batteries, energy, EVs and AI. https://t.co/DFOk3yJikn
Decent odds we see some export bans for key commodities where India can move global prices (eg rice, sugar)
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18
Not even a slight bounce on this headline. *US SIGNALS TO ALLIES NO IMMEDIATE PLANS FOR IRAN INVASION
This is important 👇 1. USA is in Cold War with China 2. Europe is economically dependent on China. Something has to change because 1+2 is incompatible with a partnership, which is why the partnership is deteriorating
Why Energy Shocks Like the Iran War Are Accelerating Electrification Canada gets it wrong. Iran war is encouraging Global South (inc Asia) to switch from oil/LNG to renewables/electrotech. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/7IbLVXk81Ow
An assessment of China's new Five-Year Plan from my @CarnegieEndow teammate @damienics who directs @CarnegieChina in Singapore.
My take on the Chinese five year plan and the rise of "high quality" as approximating a "Xi Doctrine" on the economy - for @CarnegieEndow Emissary @CarnegieChina The TL:DR version: - For Xi, innovation-driven economy > consumption driven economy. -...
This is important especially since US and China are the only countries able to ‘police’ the strait of Hormuz
No better timing than to have @LukeGromen as my guest tonight on The Danny Moses Show @scrippsnews at 7PM ET. We discuss the impact that the war in Iran is having on global markets & what we should be watching....
China Hits Back at U.S. With New Trade Probes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit Beijing responds to investigations by the U.S. that could raise tariffs @pstAsiatech: yes, Beijing will respond to every measure coming from within Beltway, every one.. https://t.co/XZraiO7f8W
How China Is Playing the Long Game With Trump China is always playing the long game... https://t.co/ca5y4Jpyct
"Expectations Worsen After Start of Military Conflict in Iran, Particularly Over Short Run" - UMichigan sentiment survey https://t.co/w6h4uxLJ0V
Looks like all is not well between Iran and China/COSCO as two of their ships were turned around at the toll gate. "COSCO’s ships are a new gauge for Hormuz crisis" https://t.co/i9oWIPHi5V https://t.co/266IvJBUES
INDIA: stocks down another -2% overnight to -9.2% in the last month - who gets you out of these country exposures? $INDA https://t.co/pQ984qpHQx
Global risk isn’t evenly distributed. In 2026, a small group of countries - including Belarus, Lebanon, Sudan, and Venezuela - sit at the top of the global risk ranking, with premiums around 30.9%. At the other end, only 19 countries globally have risk levels below...
Reuters: "China is considering easing shareholding restrictions for some major investors, people with knowledge of the matter said, in a move aimed at broadening capital-raising options for commercial banks reeling from an economic slowdown." https://t.co/HCdl6eFRCX
mexico just cut rates 25bps (split 3-2 vote) some DM central banks already getting outclassed by an EM
four weeks in, iran continues to export oil through the strait of hormuz. 1.5 million barrels a day, at significantly higher prices than before the war.
Not a day to stay on the sidelines. Aside from gold: I welcome this pullback in Latin American stocks. Looks like a correction within the early innings of a structural bull market in emerging markets. https://t.co/PqNvdOT6AB https://t.co/nL6e7JkoCR
Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300.
Be careful not to confuse changes in valuation and changes in custodial patterns (after Russia's reserves were immobilized) with actual sales https://t.co/zTGz75N9rr
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
𝗪𝗮𝗿, 𝗢𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 🇿🇦 The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) just mapped out two possible futures for South Africa's economy. 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 If the conflict ends within 2 months, oil averages just under $100/barrel, and the...
According to The Economist, the biggest emerging market countries that are being hit by the energy shock are: Jordan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Ethiopia. THE COUNTRIES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/ED3ID96us3
Kazakhstan–China Relations: Perceptions of China After the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Gaziza Shakhanova, 2026 https://t.co/lD5RrER3uG
Lots of hints that Turkey has done a gold swap to raise FX to fund the central bank's intervention to defend the lira. It didn't show up in the CBRT's reserve disclosure for March 19th (reporting is lagged a week). ...
Kospi just dropped 3%+. South Korea doesn't move 3% for no reason. Yen carry trade stress. Japan buying yen. Selling Treasuries to do it. Asian contagion doesn't stay in Asia. Watch $EEM. Watch $FXI. $VIX $SPY https://t.co/M3BpoEWXWm
Middle Eastern funds have racked up outsize gains from bets on newly-listed Chinese AI companies China uninvestable? Seems like so long ago now... https://t.co/u1DyM6ixKs
An investment boom in AI has kept China’s trade volumes on a path to exceed last year’s record levels, offsetting disruptions from higher oil prices in the weeks after war broke out in Iran https://t.co/L3nAViEgYs
Meanwhile, back in the madhouse, Budapest and Bratislava have accused Ukraine of deliberately delaying the resumption of oil flows, triggering a political dispute that has seen Hungary block the EU loan to Kyiv... it's a mess. https://t.co/9Rnn7Wxy82
Iran war just canceled a better economic outlook for the world https://t.co/4zqeIEwXkO via @CraigStirling @WHorobin https://t.co/hfVE77iQwZ
From Liberation Day to the Strait of Hormuz, is global trade and world order going thru an upheaval? Will the world move go from bifurcation or trifurcation to fragmentation? Who will dominant? What would supply chains look like and operate...
Key pushback to a blockade is that it might spike oil prices. Iran's 2 million barrels per day could spike oil prices by 20% if they go offline, but - with Brent already up 60% from before the war -...
MOSCOW, March 26 (Reuters) - Russia is pleased about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy statement that the U.S. is making its offer of security guarantees conditional on Kyiv ceding all of the country's eastern region of Donbas to Russia, a senior...
🚨 TRUMP SETS 4–6 WEEK DEADLINE TO END IRAN CONFLICT President Trump is pushing for a quick resolution within 4 to 6 weeks and has proposed a 15-point peace plan that includes dismantling Iran’s nuclear sites. Meanwhile, the U.S. is deploying 1,000...
