Qatar's $600B Surplus Faces First Deficit in Decade
Qatar's accumulated current account surplus (which excludes capital gains on the QIA's investments) over the last 40ys is USD 600b give or take Qatar can afford a few months of deficits . But it still hurts https://t.co/zcG5etAkVY
Double Blockade in Persian Gulf Spikes Global Energy Prices
The situation in the Persian Gulf has worsened. Despite the ceasefire, a double blockade has broken out. It's one big cluster, and the global energy markets are feeling the heat. #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/iV7sYWClso
Admin Claims New Iran Terror Premium in Oil Prices
From the @DallasFed special edition of its energy survey: “… The administration’s comment about an “Iran terror premium” existing for decades with oil pricing is laughable. But now the administration has created one where it did not exist before…” — anonymous...
China Advances Tech, Economy Hesitates, Military Stalls
our first ask ian live. a caller asked if china is shifting from second gear to third. technologically, yes. economically, maybe. militarily, not so much. xi still playing the long game. @gzeromedia
China Moves From Sanctions Victim to Export Regulator
"After years...on the receiving end of sanctions, China is now developing its own export control regime. Last year's controls on rare earths only signalled the beginning of what might be a much greater degree of intervention" - from @China_Digital https://t.co/EzBswTk66J
Chinese Export Share Soars as US Tariffs Shift Demand
China’s share of global car sales jumped from 4.5% to 11.4%, and global sales of electronics JUMPED from 20.7% to 26.1%. The scope and scale of Chinese exports is SURGING. Thanks to Trump's tariffs, the world is pivoting away from made in...
Sanctions Spur Dramatic Diversification of Iran’s Trade
Under the sanctions regime, Iran’s trade has diversified dramatically. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below https://t.co/YVEjDdiUTn
Dollar Climbs, Risk Appetite Sours, Markets Tumble
Dollar has rallied; VIX spiked; equities, gold, emerging markets and Bitcoin have dropped. News of Ghalibaf bowing out of US-Iran negotiations not being taken favorably from a 'risk appetite' perspective
China Shifts Commodity Payments to CNY, Sidelines USD Crisis
It matters greatly, here's why: 1. China can run out of USD, but it can't run out of CNY. 2. China's biggest USD outflow is in commodity imports - est. $1.5-2.0 trillion in commodities, mostly in energy. 3. So every 10% of their...
China's Potential Oil Buying Strike Mirrors Missing Supply
Has anyone thought about the possibility that China is on a full buyers strike in oil markets? That would remove (at least in oil barrels) almost the same barrels that we are currently missing
Middle East Still Holds Trillion in Dollar Assets, Not Switching
Tony Nash is right that the Middle East isn't de dollarizing. Iran wants sanctions relief so it (in some ideal world) can re dollarize and stop selling to China at a discount ... 1/2
China’s New Supply‑Chain Rules Pose Risk to US Companies
AFP: China’s new supply chain regulations could be a “concern” for US firms, @AmCham_China warned. The regulations, released April 7, allow authorities to take measures against foreign companies that “harm China’s industrial and supply chain security.” https://t.co/bmnFKekxT7
Russia's War Debt Burden Threatens Banking System
Russia has a financial crisis looming The Kremlin shifted war costs from the sovereign balance sheet into the banking system. Now those loans are going bad. That bill is coming due. https://t.co/PzEExkohJo
How Global Imbalances Ripple Across Nations
Adam Tooze has a very good new Substack article on global imbalances. I discuss below where I (mostly) agree and disagree (more in emphasis than in substance), focusing especially on how imbalances are transmitted from country to country. @adam_tooze https://t.co/n6KhuJ5NMS
Hormuz Turns Trade Weaponization Frontline, Threatening Maritime Security
Hormuz becomes frontline in ‘weaponisation of trade’. Is there currently maritime security and safety? https://t.co/NoAhibd8ud
Vietnam, Philippines Face Sharpest ASEAN Inflation Due to Iran War
Talking about demand decline? here are additional examples ASEAN inflation: Vietnam and Philippines hit hardest by Iran war https://t.co/5t6VZtznvz
Mexico's Economy Minister Urges Future‑Focused Trade Over Zero‑Tariff Nostalgia
JUST IN: Mexico's economy minister warns against longing for the zero-tariff era, pushing for a forward-thinking trade strategy.
Indian Equities Slide on Middle East Tensions
JUST IN: Indian equities slide as financial and auto stocks pull back amid Middle East tensions.
UK Launches £1.1bn Fund for Asia Energy Transition
The UK’s development finance institution creates a £1.1 billion fund to back energy transition sectors in India and Southeast Asia https://t.co/1JpgOa9ZGQ
Administration Worries About Dwindling GCC Investment Inflows
Good Politico story on the Administration's concerns about the loss of GCC investments here ... https://t.co/JySqztN8q4
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A bit more on the GCC swap line puzzle (why the ask, and why is Bessent apparently keen to say yes to a set of countries with tons of assets) There doesn't seem to be any shortage of good collateral (Treasuries)...
Mexico Eyes Development Bank Chief as US Ambassador
SCOOP: Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum is considering development bank head Roberto Lazzeri as a candidate for ambassador to the US, a move that would mark the second major personnel shift ahead of USMCA trade talks, sources tell me @michaelob_mex & me https://t.co/JopwSJrCg8
Landlocked Nations Need Diverse Links, Not Single-Partner Dependence
I'm afraid you can build a highway from Kyrgyzstan to western China but not from Kyrgyzstan to California. So if you're a landlocked economy, you do build infrastructure links to contiguous countries like China, especially when they have been growing,...
Revealed Vulnerability Shifts Bargaining Power; Iran's Capabilities Now Known
Bottom line: the issue isn't only what Iran can do. It's that everyone now knows what Iran can do. Revealed vulnerability changes bargaining power. https://t.co/icf9axhcM0
Indonesia's Strait Fee Sparks UNCLOS, Supply‑Chain Turmoil
Indonesia. Impose fee on ships going thru the Strait of Malacca. Learned money lesson from Iran. UNCLOS? Will there be military action to stop it? More maritime and supply chain hell.
Ship Seizures Signal Iran’s Growing Control of Hormuz
Ship Seizures Mark New Phase in Iran’s De Facto Control of Hormuz. With extended ceasefire. The situation looks shaky. https://t.co/pThf20VEbW
Iran Conflict: Strategic Threat or Opportunity for China?
Is the Iran war a strategic threat or an opportunity for China? https://t.co/E82r5V2x3h @QamarEnergy @TheNational
Korean Equities Soar While Currency Fundamentals Crumble
Crazy retail outflows into levered US stock funds -- and a national pension service that is a structural source of weakness in the won (by design) and that the Koreans have had trouble turning off even when it worked at cross...
US Flips From Trillion Promises to Billion Bailouts
Amazing how fast the US has swung from hyping the "trillions" it was going to get from the oil sheiks and Asia ... to talking about providing those same countries with billions in bailouts (swaps ... ) 1/ https://t.co/rAOp6Do3pc
Iran Conflict Expands Beyond Energy to All Sectors
The Iran war is no longer just an energy story - it's becoming an everything story.... https://t.co/TDBA7DATcU
China’s Real Challenge: Weak Domestic Consumption, Not US Asset Harvest
Agree it's an interesting paper, but largely because it is based on a false premise. China's core strategic challenge is NOT "how to 'harvest' US relinquishing assets." China's core strategic challenge is how to address inadequate (and falling) domestic consumption...
Hormuz Closure Cripples India's Energy, Fuels Worker Protests
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked energy supplies to India, upending the dreams of assembly-line workers and sparking large labor protests. https://t.co/qA5MhKmLRP via @WSJ
China’s Influence Extends Beyond Two Nations in LATAM, Middle East
If folks really think China's entire "standing" in both Latin America and the Middle East hinged on just two countries, they have not paid sufficient attention to the diversity of China's offerings, the local "pull" instead of just Chinese "push"...
US Cuts Iran Oil, Delivering Sharp Economic Pain
The best way to deal with a belligerent oil exporter is to cut off its oil exports. The West dropped the ball on Russia in 2022, but the US is now doing this right with Iran. Iran faces severe economic...
Wall Street Overlooks Escalating Middle East Tension
⚠️ STOCKS ARE IGNORING WAR RISK ⚠️ Here's what Wall Street is NOT telling you today: 🔴 Iran seized 2 ships in Hormuz 🔴 Tested the US blockade with supertankers 🔴 Trump extended the ceasefire (good) 🔴 But Tehran is...
U.S. Blockade Sparks Iranian Infighting, Shows Economic Power
The US has pivoted to a full economic blockade of Iran. You can tell it's highly effective by the state of agitation in Iran, which has descended into infighting on how to deal with this. Economic warfare isn't perfect, but...
China and India Lift Global Airline Share to 19%
CHINA and INDIA are both experiencing rapid growth in the number of airline passengers as household incomes rise. The number of passengers carried increased by an average of 7% each year in China and 8% in India between 2010 and...
China's Biggest HK Yuan Bond Sale Hits Record‑low Yields
Bloomberg: "China’s biggest yuan bond sale in Hong Kong since 2023 drew record-low yields for both two- and 15-year debt, with two-year debt selling at a yield of 1.32% and 15-year debt at 2.08%." https://t.co/Q9FDkpbbJE
State‑owned Firms Boost Investment 24%, Spur Growth
1/2 Yicai: "The 100 companies owned by China's central government raised their fixed-asset investment by 24 percent to more than CNY1 trillion last quarter from a year ago, playing an important role in driving the country's overall economic growth." https://t.co/a1CUMZDz2A
China, Russia Offer Discounted Gas, Bypass USD, Challenge Qatar
China and Russia building new natural gas pipelines to replace Nordstream. Asian countries being courted to buy natural gas at 40% discount to market rates. Won’t be priced in USD. Permanent shift from Qatar which will take years and billions...
China Cyber‑spies Western Defense Firms, Dutch Intel Warns
China’s Cyberspying Targets Western Defense Industry, Dutch Intel Chief Says—Military intelligence report warns China poses a growing threat, alongside Russia @kimmackrael @DanMichaelsWSJ https://t.co/cu728ldZmp https://t.co/cu728ldZmp
China's Oil Wells at Risk Without Immediate Iranian Flow
Iran is without revenues, but way more important is that the oilwells that China relies on might be permanently damaged if oilflows does not start again within a short time
Libya's Central Bank Funded Tripoli Assault Through Abu Dhabi
Eastern Libya’s Top Money Man - or how Libya’s central bank financed the assault on Tripoli by way of Abu Dhabi. The Sentry article featured in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/zY0VaxASFE https://t.co/unp3sIz4If
Brent Surpasses $100 as VP Vance Cancels Islamabad Trip
Brent oil is back above $100 after US Vice President JD Vance called off his Islamabad trip. This follows Iran’s refusal to join talks there to negotiate an end to the War or, at the minimum, extend the ceasefire, which is...
Trump’s War Tactics Alienate Key Asian Allies
My take on the Trump's war strategy on @MarioNawfal: "Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, and India are under the gun. The US-Israeli war has imposed massive costs on them. Now they are pivoting away from the US." TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN HOW...
GCC Nations Turn Net Drains on Offshore Dollar Liquidity
The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity. The Saudis...
China May Follow Iraq Model for Gulf Deals
Wait for things to shake out and then make deals with Gulf states on the other side, leveraging its own offerings? Iraq, where China is a dominant player in the upstream, maybe an instructive precedent for China ...
Iran's Hormuz Threat Lacks Leverage without Clear Economic Damage
If Iran wants its future threats to re-close the Strait of Hormuz to be seen as serious leverage vs a future US administration, it's going to be tricky for Tehran to reopen the Strait before we see more acute—and truly...
Regional Trade Agenda Drives SADC Economic Growth
President @edmnangagwa welcomes the President of Botswana, @duma_boko at the Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport… Regional trade is his on the agenda … and it is the catalyst that will accelerate economic growth and prosperity in SADC & beyond…....
Firms Caught Between US Push and China Warning
US wants China out of upstream supply chains. China warns against it. When trust of both parties is thin, what do firms do.? Geopolitics and war? Taiwan. Where and what is next? Supply chain alignment vs fluidity. Welcome to the...