Chinese Stocks Offer Undervalued Upside, Says Strategist
🇨🇳📈 Are investors underestimating the potential upside in Chinese equities? @LizThomasStrat dives into the risk/reward setup on MRKT Call https://t.co/hKMhhCNpDm
FX Settlement Reveals China’s $35B March Currency Purchases
Fx settlement is in my view the single best proxy for China's true intervention. It looks like China, Inc bought about $35b in fx in March even with all the turmoil in the oil market. That's down...
Limited Chip Exports Preserve US Edge, Fuel China’s Future AI
Jensen's arguments against chip export controls didn't make a ton of sense to me, but here's a steelman: selling a limited quantity of n-1 generation chips to China could undercut their domestic industry, while retaining a 10x American compute advantage. Totally...
Russia's Tight Money Stifles Growth Amid War‑Driven Inflation
“Russia’s tight monetary policy has landed it in an unlikely club of countries usually comprised of economies battling debt distress or runaway inflation, laying bare the economic costs from the war in Ukraine beyond the swelling military-spending bill… The sheer scale...
Russia Seeks Escape From Steepest Three‑year Contraction
Russia looks for a way out of its sharpest economic contraction in three years https://t.co/qV7fi62bZB
Iran's Job and Inflation Data Drive Oil Analysis
The key known unknown (to me) to analyse oil is the true state of the Iranian economy: jobs and inflation. I hear lots of tales, but I have little confidence on any. Reporting from inside Iran is extremely difficult. Economic damage...
FT Live Q&A on U.S. Financial Dominance & Trump Challenges
Neither of us are really "experts" but Toby and I are doing one FT's live "Ask An Expert" sessions for readers with questions about America's global financial dominance and Trump-shaped challenges to it. You can check it out here:...
US Blockade Shift Signals War De‑Escalation, Not Market Overreach
The most common comment I hear from policy makers at this week's IMF/WB meetings is that markets are way too early in pricing de-escalation. Disagree. It's clear the US wants wants to end this war, hence the shift to a...
US‑Iran Talks Lift Latin American Commodity Exporters
Now that Iran and the US are negotiating, fear that war may escalate out of control is leaving markets. That's lifting EM oil and commodity exporters, especially across LatAm. Good news for Colombia, Argentina and Brazil. A replay of 2022...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5% Amid Tech Surge
China collapse fans will not be pleased.... China's Q1 2026 GDP just came in at 5.0% YoY — beating expectations, matching full-year 2025, fastest pace since Q2 2025. Services surging, semiconductors up 20.6%, industrial robots up 24.4%. Yes, property still a drag. Yes,...
Stuck in US‑Iran Standoff: No Fighting, No Peace, No Oil
At risk of repeating myself, still in the "no-fighting, not-peace, and (certainly) no-oil" phase of the US-Iran war.
Lee Jae Myung Redirects Housing Funds to Boost Industry
1/9 The Economist discusses the determination of South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, to expand RoK industrial policy aggressively. "His plan involves diverting capital from the housing market to... https://t.co/KKRJiuWb4E
Turkey's Loose Money Policy Drives Lira to Record Low
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: The lira hit a record low of 44.7/USD — down 17% over the past year. Turkey's M3 is growing at 39.9%/yr, well above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 23.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey’s inflation target. TURKEY’S MONETARY POLICY IS...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5%, Growth Imbalance Worsens
1/8 China’s first-quarter GDP grew by 5.0%, faster than the 4.8-4.9% most polls suggested, but the composition of the growth was more unbalanced than ever, especially in March. https://t.co/Wa8M2mo1rR
India Overtakes US for Second Spot in Solar Growth
Market Share: While China remains the undisputed leader (accounting for over 60% of global additions), India is set to secure the #2 spot for yearly growth, overtaking the United States.
China Threatens Vague Retaliation on Foreign Firms Before Trump Summit
China Sharpens Retaliatory Tools Against U.S. Ahead of Trump Summit—Beijing responds to Washington’s trade pressure with broad but vague threats aimed at foreign businesses @ByChunHan @yoyominnie https://t.co/itS181EOEe https://t.co/itS181EOEe
Taiwan Emerges as Global Economic Powerhouse
Three facts worth storing in memory: -Taiwan’s stock market is now bigger than the UK’s -Taiwan is on track to be a larger source of US imports than China. -Eight of the world’s ten largest companies rely on Taiwanese (#9 & #10...
China's Q1 GDP Masks Weak Consumer and Investment Demand
China Q1 2026 real GDP is STRONG at 5%, but details show that consumption and investment are very weak. Nominal retail sales are soft at 1.7% for March and for the quarter it's only growing 2.4% nominally, which means REAL RETAIL...
US Says Blockade Stopped Chinese Iranian Oil Purchases
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the blockade is believed to have halted Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, will not renew the Russian oil waiver, and stated that two Chinese banks received Treasury letters warning of potential secondary sanctions.
China’s Outperformance Driven by Excess Liquidity Recycling
China’s outperformance is symptomatic of its liquidity glut, said @Trinhnomics , a senior economist covering emerging Asia at Natixis in Hong Kong. “That excess liquidity is being recycled into high-quality Chinese credit.” https://t.co/3rIShLlAgS
China’s Loan‑driven Industrial Policy Breeds Debt, Few Champions
Most of China's industrial policy is in the form of bank loans, not subsidies. Yes, you can lend to 100 companies, and 2 survive, and then you have 2 national champions. But you also have a mountain of bad debt on...
Iranian Oil Return Could Shift Energy Markets Soon
If the US and Iran reach a deal — a big if — it’s fair to assume Tehran gets sanctions relief. If that includes oil sales — another big, although likely, if — then in a few months the energy...
War's Hidden Costs Hit Americans Irreversibly, Even After Ceasefire
The question that I get asked most often is: Even if the ceasefire holds, has the war already imposed large irreversible costs on Americans? So I made a video digging into these issues. The stakes may be much larger than you...
Rising Economic Pressure on Iran, China Faces Scrutiny
Economic pressure on Iran goes up. Also pressure on China to stop supporting Iran financially and military
China Cuts African Tariffs, Contrasting US Stance on Rare Earths
China removing tariffs from Africa imports. The opposite of the US. And the rare earths?
Bitcoin Climbs as Strait Tolls Pressure Gold Reserves
One emerging narrative resulting from the Iran conflict is that Iran will more or less control the Strait of Hormuz with a “toll booth” approach and that countries might pay those tolls in Yuan or crypto. Meanwhile, the exporting countries...
Emerging Markets Surge as Yuan Hits 3‑Year High
While risk appetite has recovered sharply amid the Strait shutdown, emerging markets doing particularly well. While the EEM ETF has climbed (inverted below), the Chinese Yuan has climbed to a 3-yr high vs the Dollar - 254 days USDCNH below...
Blockading Ports Isn’t Strategy; It’s Self‑defeating.
2025: blockading American ports. 2026: blockading Iranian ports. Same move, different flag. If your grand strategy is just “less trade for everyone,” mate, that’s not chess. That’s flipping the board. https://t.co/Re8HN1bIye
China’s Tech Surge Marred by Waste, Looming Stagnation
"China’s High-Tech Drive in 10 Charts" https://t.co/SZXnkg9CHZ "There have been tremendous strides, but also great waste and failures, such that China’s economic growth is likely to continue to stagnate and decline." https://t.co/hH3Gu87F81
ECB Faces Uncertain Outcomes over Iran
Nagel says the ECB between baseline and adverse outcomes on Iran https://t.co/A2MX9mA2pD via @flacqua @jrandow https://t.co/4PwzutyUl5
Iran Conflict Signals Next Phase of Global Cycle
Most people look at wars as isolated events. I look at them as part of a Big Cycle that has repeated many times, so for me watching what is happening is like watching a movie I've seen many times before. What we’re seeing...
One Belt One Road Lending Surges in 2025
Reports of the end of China’s One Belt One Road lending were very premature - 2025 was a record year for new commitments. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/KIBnk4491s
Analyzing Iran War's Next Steps and Global Ripple Effects
Come for @RanaForoohar's take on what happens next with the Iran war. Stay for @LukeGromen's response on the far-reaching implications. https://t.co/mXUaZa7w04
Retail Adoption of Dollar Stablecoins Fuels Hyper‑Dollarization
It will be foreign sovereigns seeking to de-dollarize while their citizens seek to dollarize. place your bets...
Trump Urges Xi; China Denies Arming Iran
Trump asked Chinese President Xi Jinping in a letter not to give Iran weapons, and Xi responded that China was not supplying Tehran https://t.co/60vaNXzDS1
Trump’s Blockade Threatens Fragile US‑China Détente
Trump’s Blockade Risks Upending an Emerging Détente With China In a thinly veiled critique of the war in Iran, China’s leader said the world could not risk reverting “to the law of the jungle.” Not very thinly veiled.... https://t.co/LPtfynf5Up
China Surges as US Scientific Talent Drains Away
As Trump scares off US scientists, China is racing ahead From mapping the seabed to AI innovation, Beijing is becoming the world’s scientific superpower But don't worry, US has "3-6 month lead" in AI.... https://t.co/tuVxbpXhjY
Ramaphosa Issues Detailed Reply to Musk on Investment Rules
President @CyrilRamaphosa has given a COMPREHENSIVE response to @elonmusk following his social media posts about South Africa’s requirements for foreign investment…. https://t.co/WviFIHT03F
EU Grapples with Whether to Embrace Chinese Investment
Excellent piece by @barneyjopson @leahyjoseph @ian_c_johnston about a very real dilemma faced by many EU governments: should Europe welcome Chinese investment? https://t.co/IWJghsXaVY via @ft
Iran Seeks Crypto Payments for Hormuz Shipping
The rising demand for a global neutral settlement layer: Why #Iran demands crypto for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. @LexSokolin via Substack: https://t.co/mpcYqrZEYa #stablecoins #digitalcurrencies https://t.co/Wqv0NnFjQs
Blockade Shift Signals Market Relief Amid De‑escalation
Big thanks to @johnauthers for including me in today's @business write-up. The shift to a blockade is good news for markets because it signals a shift away from war and possible catastrophic escalation to economic countermeasures. That's good news... https://t.co/hh4YxAnK3P
Blockades Spark Panic and Capital Flight, Not Just Trade Halt
A successful blockade isn't just about stopping oil exports. It's about instilling panic in the population and causing capital flight. That's what happened in Russia, when fear of an embargo caused capital flight in 2022. The US has lots of...
US Warns China Will Lose Access to Iranian Oil
Escalation either way: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says China will no longer be able to get oil from Iran.
China’s Growth Likely Beats IMF Forecast, Hits 4.5‑5%
1/2 SCMP: "The IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast. China – the world’s second-largest economy – is now expected to expand by 4.4 per cent this year." I, however, predict that China's GDP will grow this year by between 4.5%...
Middle East Turmoil Threatens Worldwide Industrial Supply Chains
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry https://t.co/q4PGQdnQp0
Chinese Airlines Reshaping Global Aviation Routes
The Geopolitics of the Skies – Why Chinese Carriers are Redrawing the Global Aviation Map https://t.co/0ZmuFlEOCE
Iran's Supertanker Defies US Blockade Amid Interceptions
Dear @grok truth? A. Iranian sanctioned supertanker crosses Strait of Hormuz, reportedly defying U.S. blockade. Vs B. U.S. naval forces have intercepted eight oil tankers entering or leaving Iranian ports since the start of the blockade, according to a U.S. official -WSJ
Conflicts Persist: Apparent Ends Are Just Temporary Pauses
Conflicts like this don’t end quickly. They run until something decisive changes. Not months. Not even just a few years. Historically, these cycles stretch - with pauses, resets, and then escalation again. What feels like an « end » is often just a break in the...
Amundi Expands Team to Chase Hybrid Emerging‑market Deals
Amundi is planning to add headcount to target deals that combine private and public capital for emerging-markets projects https://t.co/PS4lDcwmFA
China Threatens Employee Penalties to Deter Supply‑chain Decoupling
This is extraordinary: China’s response to Western firms diversifying supply chains is to threaten penalties on their own employees and executives inside China if they “decouple.” It’s like an abusive partner reacting to a breakup by threatening the kids or shared...