Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
If Hormuz is still closed in a month (it likely will be), this is going to turn into "We are doing more not-QE RMP's into an oil spike, but we are NOT monetizing deficits" so fast that investors heads will spin.
Several "dogs that didn't bark" in one headline: -Iran warned ahead of time it would hit Ras Laffan. -It fired five missiles (which it is said to be running out of.) -Four were reportedly intercepted, but one got through. -Investor consensus remains...
Israel has hit Iranian energy infrastructure for the first time; the strike hit a processing facility tied to the South Pars gas field, which could lead to major electricity shortages in Iran within days. Access my daily coverage of the...
A brief update on what we know about the strikes in the Middle East right now: Israel and the US targeted South Pars, a joint Iranian-Qatari gas field. In response, the Iranians have now labeled all energy infrastructure in the region...
$FXI down 8% since January. China imports the bulk of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged closure doesn't just hit energy costs. It hits the entire growth model. https://t.co/lSosVCvxcm
China's manufacturing surplus looks to have taken another leg up. Always a good idea to get confirmation in March given the new year distortions. But Europe looks to be getting squeezed both by China and higher energy prices https://t.co/8EZnqysgKL
The plan to separate China and Russia appears to be going about as well as the plan to re-open Hormuz. https://t.co/77hPZR1z9w
Ed Yardeni tells Squawk Box the Iran war could trigger a 10%-15% market correction. https://t.co/N1pfsujcVF
Worth noting just how much the Iran war has changed expectations about the Fed and the future path of monetary policy. https://t.co/NBYZx2Uuza
Well, China isn't going to dip into its strategic reserves to help supply the rest of the world ... 1/2
Comparing what is now happening with what has happened in analogous historical situations and triangulating my thinking with smart, well-informed leaders and experts has always helped me make better decisions. I have found that most wars are filled with big...
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤. What if China’s economic power is much bigger than we realize? In just 45 seconds, I’ll reveal the truth behind China’s 90% Model and how it’s reshaping industries globally. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐥𝐥 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧: The insidious strategy behind...
Israel just struck Iranian infrastructure at South Pars, the world's biggest natural gas field. This natgas episode is definitely worth a listen ⬇️⬇️
Both sides are now targeting upstream (ie, production) oil and natural gas assets. Is this an attempt to escalate to de-escalate? Or is it simply a sign that escalation is spiralling out of control?
Iran said US and Israeli airstrikes hit its giant South Pars natural gas field and associated infrastructure, according to state television. Petrochemical facilities in nearby Asaluyeh also came under attack, it added.
This isn’t just an energy shock—it’s a structural hit to the Gulf growth model, writes @anasalhajji Deals are collapsing, exports are stalled, capital is coming home. This goes far beyond oil. #Geopolitics #Energy #Gulf #Macro
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the return of the legend Bob Brackett @tracyalloway and I talk to Bernstein’s top commodities researcher about war in Iran and how natural gas flows are being reshaped all around the world. https://t.co/DlSfweVsgl
FII holding in India: approx. US$ 750 billion FII holding in just Samsung Electronics, TSMC and Hynix: US$ 1.75 trillion Source: Nomura How much India has lost in past 2-3 yrs on a relative basis is crazy.
Chinese Economy’s Bright Start Masks Uneven Growth as External Risks Loom—Data released showed industrial production rebounded on surging exports https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL
I'm afraid China's economic presence in Central Asia went way beyond oil, gas, and mining some time ago. If folks still think it's all just about extractive industries, they've missed quite a bit about the Chinese presence.
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT
This measure of geopolitical risk just hit levels that put the current moment in the same league as the most dangerous moments of the 21st century. https://t.co/7ciy5RuN8b
Keep Hormuz closed long enough and it is a mathematical and logistical certainty. The only debate is "How long is 'long enough' to make that happen?"
Pakistan looks like the Asian energy importer that is most at risk because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/7rDXmrxVqy
Every US policymaker & investor we see talks about "tactics": How many Iranian ships we've sunk, how many launchers we've destroyed.... ...while ignoring what keeping Hormuz closed will do to global "logistics", even as Iran openly admits "logistics" is their whole...
PHOTO(S) OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil — and Iran its getting (some of) its money. Three weeks into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. (No damage visible at this resolution) Photo @CopernicusEU...
BofA: In March, FMS investors were 34% net overweight commodities, the most since Apr'22. Net 53% were overweight emerging market equities, the highest since Feb’21. https://t.co/g0RUiBm0cN
Pakistan’s LNG supply at risk of running out in less than a month 🇵🇰 🚢 Officials warn that there may not be enough gas to meet power needs after April 14 Pakistan imports 99% of its LNG from Qatar. But supplies...
From GS on Flows: - CTAs Sold $80B over the last month - “Length has gone from >8 out of 10 to ~6.5 now, projected to go near 4.5-5 all else equal” - Systematics are estimated to sell $70B in the next *week*...
The divergence between the performance of China’s economy and its stock market has been a topic for decades. This may finally explain it. https://t.co/Kuo5CiNr8e https://t.co/6CgHtlepQL
1/ I've said it before and will say it again: avoid EM index investing. Their performance has lagged, both in the short-term and in the ultra-long run. https://t.co/MkPIAWW0Jf
I was in Hong Kong in Feb 2020 and remember this being a very weird time. Investors had been worrying about the US-China trade war under Trump 1.0. Then China effectively shut down most of its economy and markets basically...
Bessent now finds himself in the position of the Bank of England in 1992 when Soros, Druckenmiller, & Bessent "broke the BOE": Trying to prevent the USD from collapsing v. oil with a finite amount of oil reserves as markets &...
This is from the end of December. Was this meant to lure Iran into negotiations? ran says $2bn of frozen assets released by neighboring country https://t.co/miz6slNXAM
Somewhere in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is rubbing his hands. India is paying ~$99 a barrel for Russian crude Urals (including shipping costs). And since the US eased its sanctions on Russian crude, it's all legal.
South Korea is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG The flexibility of Asia to performan gas-to-coal switching (and its enormous coal-fired fleet) provides a layer of insulation...
Iran has started a new phase of its oil war: Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn't been attacked (and neither the Yemeni...
This paper says India's GDP is overstated by 22%. It also says that Europe's GDP and China's GDP are both overstated by 35%.
China’s Economy Off to Steady Start in 2026 Amid Lowered Expectations—Better-than-expected performance in first two months of year opens space for Beijing to pursue goal of shifting toward consumption-led growth @ByXiaoXiao @TByGraceZhu https://t.co/KtqJ6NLc1z https://t.co/KtqJ6NLc1z
If their GDP drops 14%, do you think Qatar and Kuwait will: a) Slash government outlays (thereby risking domestic unrest), or; b) Sell USTs & US equities “until their hands bleed” to raise USDs to buy needed goods to try to...
MAP OF THE DAY: While the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed (other than a few tankers, notably from India), the Red Sea is witnessing the arrival of an oil tanker armada to the Saudi terminals there. (Tracking via @TheTerminal) (Blue...
I’m really concerned that when people take this one step further and learn that the US is actually selling oil to other countries that the public’s demand for an export ban will become overwhelming.
Emerging markets down 14% from February highs. The EM rally was built on dollar weakness. Then the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil rewrote the script. Oil at $100 is devastating for importers like India, South Korea, and Turkey. Even exporters need...
So let’s see if I got this right: The White House had anticipated (and prepared) for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. And part of that response is for the President to ask via social media geopolitical foes like...
The response after Kharg Island? Some oil loading operations in the UAE port of Fujairah, just outside the Strait of Hormuz, have been suspended after a drone attack and fire on Saturday morning. https://t.co/rhA5ofo80y https://t.co/SkhA67PyzU
Begin your weekend by joining me for a long chat with Molly Jong-Fast about *all this*. https://t.co/upeUqKge1T
One-off or sign of easing? Two tankers transporting LPG (think the butane canisters) have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last few hours on the way to India. The crossing happened after gov-to-gov talks between Tehran and New Delhi....
Iran has stated it will allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz - but only for shipments paid for in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. The dollar is THE standard currency of the fossil fuel trade. Iran didn’t just announce...
OK, I suppose we should admit the White House was right, and, all along, they did have a plan to deal with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bomb Kharg Island.
Good point & good question - what happens to the USD's reserve status if USD commodity contracts are broken on a widespread basis? What's the point of holding USDs if they are declared worthless for commodities when inconvenient? See 2022 seizure of...
