Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Social Media and Updates
Emerging Markets Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The comments from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on the East-West pipeline, the last (and only partial) line of defence of the oil market against the Strait of Hormuz disruption (other than a SPR release) For background, my @Opinion column from yesterday: https://t.co/tXkHzUOiYy https://t.co/4nG6JRFy1R
This is perhaps the best analysis I’ve seen so far offering an onshore Chinese perspective on Iran and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. “China’s disillusionment with Iran’s leaders means that Beijing is not inherently opposed to regime change. Because...
One of my better charts -- shows China's surplus relative to global GDP. Has had a big impact I think ... https://t.co/xkL0hjBjP1
G7 energy ministers are scheduled to hold a video call (involving the IEA too) today to discuss the oil and LNG markets. Yesterday, G7 finance ministers flagged a potential use of the oil SPR. Japan and several other north East...
FT: “The question is whether the victory that Xi boasted of is sustainable, or even borne out by reality, and whether China, the country that has lifted more people out of indigence than any other…is now underestimating the poverty.” @WillLangley96 https://t.co/G1ef9EpU5D
*WTI OIL DROPS AS MUCH AS 10% TO $85.52/BBL AT START OF [Tuesday] TRADING *TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR WILL END 'SOON' BUT NOT THIS WEEK Not to be callous ... but the market really cares about oil tankers moving through the Strait...
Brazil’s CAPE ratio is approaching one of the most undervalued levels in its history. The Brazilian equity market is nearly as cheap as it was at major historical bottoms — the early 2000s and the political crisis of 2015–16. This is a...
Read @JavierBlas on the oil pipeline that could ameliorate the closure of the Straight of Hormuz https://t.co/hfkrPgLpIy https://t.co/BIgHZhk6rA
China is in the grip of a DEFLATION. In February, its Producer Price Index (PPI) was NEGATIVE at -0.9%/yr. If that's not bad enough, China's PPI has been negative for 3 STRAIGHT YEARS. DEFLATION = AN ANEMIC MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH STORY. https://t.co/HLuNvjATSK
In the last two trading days, the Brazilian Real has outperformed every other EM currency. This parallels price action after Russia invaded Ukraine. The same terms of trade shock that took $/BRL to 4.50 then is happening again now. Prime...
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the economic performance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran were virtually identical. The only economy in the region that boomed was Turkey. A GRAPH IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS. https://t.co/1l6xvZVSll
Thank you, Andrew, Becky, and Joe for the conversation on Squawk Box this morning. FYI, here is one of the clips... https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/the-global-economy-is-subject-to-more-violent-and-frequent-shocks-says-mohamed-el-erian.html ... and here is the full interview: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-allianz-chief-economic-advisor-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets @cnbc #oil #middleeastwar
How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance - Amid global oil and gas disruptions, China stands prepared for the electrostate era. https://t.co/XjVHuN91u9
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
*SAUDI ARABIA STARTS OIL OUTPUT CUTS AS STORAGE FILLS UP We do not have a lack of supply of oil. We have a lack of supply of shipping
No. China is the big winner. Putin will still lose in Ukraine. But Xi looks increasingly stable and sane to the world, as the US looks worse and worse, and weakens and distracts itself. China's EV industry stands to benefit...
G7 finance ministers to hold emergency conference call at 12.30pm London time to discuss the impact of the US- -Iran war, Paris said in a statement. According to the Financial Times, several G7 nations favour a release of their Strategic Petroleum...
1/6 SCMP: "The European Union has been urged by the EU’s official think tank to weaponise its giant market to draw concessions from China, whose economic fragility is making it increasingly reliant on rich export markets." https://t.co/haMEakKlUZ via @scmpnews
1/6 China's deflationary environment continues to improve, with high-than-expected numbers in February. CPI inflation was 1.3% year on year and 1.0% month on month. Month-on-month inflation has been positive since December and mostly positive since July. https://t.co/gpaBJ53yli
.@ZichenWanghere: “China is not willing to play the same role for Iran that the United States has long assumed for its own partners. But that does not mean that China is feckless…Too many observers still measure every rising power against...
“Encouragingly, China now seems very alert to the threat of deflation…Li Qiang said the government will steer the cost of living ‘back into positive territory.’ That’s tougher language than last year…a welcome recognition that Beijing has a problem.” https://t.co/V270GGGAJB
Dubai faces immediate risk from Singapore. If Dubai wants to retain itself as the best foreign destination it should direct @DIFC to lay out easy rules for investors. Large banks like @RAKBANKlive and @EmiratesNBD_AE should ensure that both existing...
Negative supply shock will lead to price increases & the only way to correct that if supply doesn’t rise is, well, demand destruction. We are headed towards demand destruction if the conflict doesn’t end by Day 14. Today is Day 10....
Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the country’s slain supreme leader, as his father’s successor. He is known for having close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: The human brain processes images 60,000 times faster than text, and the retention of information presented in graphs is much higher than text. NOTHING BEATS A GOOD GRAPH. TURKEY booms. Before the war, IRAN did not tank. LEBANON is in the...
This galaxy brain it’s-all-about-China’s-oil talking point drives me *insane* Only reason China was able to buy so much discounted crude from Ven/Irn/Ruz was because of US sanctions, largely imposed by the Trump admin(!), which scared off other buyers and left them...
Chevron and ExxonMobil have a stake in major Kazakh oil projects, which flow through Russia to be exported. Ukrainian strikes on any related infrastructure risk harming those American energy companies’ bottom line, and that simply will not do. #crudeoil #drones #geopolitics...
Friday marked a turning point. Brent rose 9% (CO1), but - instead of a broad sell-off across EM - South Africa (ZAR), Brazil (BRL) and Chile (CLP) rallied. Markets are transitioning to rewarding commodity exporters like in 2022 after the...
PHOTO OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil. Nine days into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. Tehran has sent some of them across the Strait of Hormuz into the high seas wihthout any...
The US Maritime Administration (@DOTMARAD) put out at the begining of the war 2 "alerts" advising vessles to "keep clear" of the Strait of Hormuz. Overnight, it cancelled the alerts (one alert was due to expire automatically, but the other was...
China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...
Look at how much US AI supercomputer cluster capacity was planned for/installed in UAE and Saudi Have not seen any strategists discuss yet what this means for US v. China AI race Seems important. Thoughts? https://t.co/23plcm9k0V
As a global forecaster, I’ve been closely watching the escalation dynamics around the Iran–Israel war. Subscribers to my research have already been tracking this trajectory, but for those following events more broadly, here are my key predictions for how this conflict...
FT: US investors are increasingly asking Asian fund managers to carve out special vehicles so they can invest in the region without falling foul of American investment restrictions on Chinese technology. https://t.co/BxNIMQgnjK
Thought? BlackRock investors rushed to pull their money out and withdrawals were suddenly locked. Halting withdrawals typically signals serious liquidity problems and can trigger panic in the financial system.
The Economist: “China’s new target is too low. Judging by the country’s recent record, it will set a ceiling on the government’s efforts to revive demand, perpetuating the economy’s biggest problems.” https://t.co/r2SPU7niNb
russia providing iran with targeting assistance against the us military. us reducing sanctions on russian oil export. quite the both/and for putin.
While the ports seized by Panama weren't a direct military threat, they're strategically significant. Removing China from the equation makes Chinese activity in the region more difficult, especially as the U.S. Navy steps away from its role as global protector...
Bolivia's inflation remains out of control at 19.56%/yr. That is nearly 4x its August 2024 rate of 5.2%/yr. To kill inflation, Bolivia must dollarize. https://t.co/oK5i4Lims6
Outside of a handful of months in 2020 the Asian unemployment rate has been below the overall unemployment rate for the entirety of the last 20 years, but it popped above in February: https://t.co/i10DDosA0u
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are reviewing US contracts and future investment commitments. The US-Israeli war on Iran is putting investments at risk. WAR = COLLATERAL DAMAGE AND COSTS. https://t.co/YXzBzPwL7O
An interesting feature of this market, similar to what @kevinmuir has pointed out ... Is that most of my clients are less worried about the downside in stocks and EMFX ... and more worried about missing the rip when the...
The Iran–Israel war is not just a regional conflict. It may be part of a much larger global escalation cycle. The latest analysis looks at the wider strategic picture and how the current war could evolve into a broader confrontation involving major...
Four years into the war in Ukraine, the conflict has entered a new phase. In his latest analysis, David Murrin looks at the strategic direction of the war, the pressures shaping both sides, and what the next stage of the conflict...
NEW: Kazakhstan’s central bank is set to invest up to $350M from its reserves into the crypto sector. The strategy targets crypto-linked equities and funds, not direct purchases of digital assets. The program could start in April or May. https://t.co/RlEGwWKYzs
International Energy Agency executive-director Fatih Birol just spoke to journalists in Brussels after meeting with EU leaders. Here his main messages from the presser: https://t.co/uzZVrc46zi
Korea is a super interesting case (even before the latest events in the Gulf). Surging current account surplus (10% of GDP), surging domestic stock market and a very weak currency are an unusual combination 1/
US critical minerals talks in Caracas signal a push for a formal Venezuelan mining value chain. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/us-critical-minerals-supply-chain-in.html
So the agenda for the Trump-Xi summit will reduce to 'beans, Boeings and barrels (of oil)? 1/
Why are we surprised by 👇? I wrote this nearly six years ago, in the context of why the US won’t allow India the same freedom of an undervalued currency that it accorded China: https://t.co/sZ45dDSSRv
