China's AI Valuations Fueled by Policy, Not Just Profit
Caixin: "In China, the AI investment thesis is shaped as much by geopolitics and policy as by profits." Interesting article on the spread of AI-related supervaluations. https://t.co/85yfiduKbD
Strait of Hormuz Closed Until Insurers Approve Risk
The Strait isn’t “open” because a navy says so It’s open when insurers, shipowners, and crews decide the risk is acceptable. Right now, it's CLOSED #oil #Hormuz #shipping #energy #markets https://t.co/KM8CM0Dffv
China's Banks Surge Net Dollar Holdings, Data Shows
Indeed. China's own banking data shows a big jump in its net dollar holdings in the last few quarters. And that data excludes the dollar assets of the policy banks and China's various sovereign funds https://t.co/DSd2RXCiOA
China Should Lead Strait of Hormuz Reopening, Not Follow
Shouldn't China be leading, rather than following, when it comes to reopening the Strait of Hormuz? They have the most to gain. https://t.co/no60ONPKDg
US Blockade Cuts Iranian Rial 20% in Three Weeks
Since the start of the US blockade on April 13, the Iranian Rial is down 20 percent against the Dollar. We're only three weeks into the blockade and this is the most visible sign it's already meaningfully disrupting Iran's economy....
US Reopens Hormuz, Concedes Blockade Failed to Pressure Iran
The push to re-open the Strait of Hormuz today, with two US warship crossing it and two US-flagged merchant vessels, signals the White House realises it can not keep waiting for the blockade to force Iran into the negotiation table. Effectively,...
Iran Risks Retaliation by Targeting UAE Oil Infrastructure
Quite the gamble from the Iranian side to attack an American ally. Imagine it is a strategic evaluation to attack the UAE's oil infrastructure aimed at circumventing Iran's efforts to curb oil flows. High risk in retaliation suggests they can't...
U.S.-China Trade Shifts: ASEAN Rise, Tariffs Reshape Supply Chains
NY Fed/Liberty Street Economics: In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed? Trade Asean shifts. Tariffs. Finished goods. Upstream supply chain. What is real? Temporary? Or not?
Dubai's Economy Crumbles as War Impact Surfaces
All of those 'Dubai is a paradise unaffected by the war' tweets have disappeared, as its economy is decimated.
Trump’s Gulf Blockade Turns Allies Into Adversaries
My take on Pres. Trump turning FRIENDS in the Gulf into ENEMIES with @MarioNawfal: "With the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council can no longer export their oil. As a result, the US blockade is...
India Accelerates Trade Liberalization with New FTAs and Tariff Cuts
"India this week signed the latest in what’s been a run of rapid-fire free trade agreements.... India also has unilaterally cut tariffs on some key inputs and rolled back QCOs in sectors including steel, textiles and chemicals." https://t.co/AVxgDPYywi https://t.co/oZpPAr08RK
China Nears AI Lead as US Talent Flow Slows
The gap in AI leadership is closing faster than expected. A Stanford report suggests China has nearly caught up, while the flow of top talent into the U.S. is slowing significantly. The shift is structural. In AI, talent and geography are becoming...
US-China Trade
Presidents Trump and Xi meet next week in Beijing. In preparation for that meeting, I visited the largest container port in North America, to get a status update on US exports to China. I also learned about the impact of...
Brazil's Slower Growth Isn’t Due to Market Freedom
Brazil is a large emerging-market country. It should be growing more rapidly than the US. It’s not because it’s less free market than the US. https://t.co/I9aEhKJJE5
Ceasefire Risk Drives Oil Surge, Boosts Dollar
US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher: The US dollar recovered in late turnover ahead of the weekend and has extended its recovery today in holiday-thin trading. Japan, China, and UK markets are closed. The ceasefire in the US-Iran...
China Directs Firms to Defy U.S. Sanctions
"China has ordered its companies to ignore US sanctions, an unprecedented act of defiance...." https://t.co/OAdUIaZIyP
Chinese Banks Stuck Between US Sanctions and Beijing Orders
US Sanctions Just Hit a Whole New Level: China's No-Win Crossfire Trap China’s banks are now caught in the sanctions crossfire. Beijing just activated its blocking law & ordered firms to defy US sanctions on its refiners. Comply with US sanctions? Chinese courts...
Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Trade Shifts and Fertilizer Push
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 65 days. At around 90 days, the shock turns global. Structural adjustments are on the way: trade routes are shifting, stockpiling is rising, and nations are boosting efforts to produce fertilizer domestically....
Trump Triggers Iran’s Hormuz Closure Strategy, Prolonged Energy Disruption
Trump has put his foot in an iranian bear trap.🐻🇮🇷 They were always going to close the Strait of Hormuz. This was never a side development. It was central to the strategy. Because the objective isn’t just confrontation - it’s disruption: energy flows, shipping routes,...
West Bengal Firms Poised to Gain Under Nationalist Rule
Any West Bengal companies in mind, whose fortunes could change with the Nationalist / Patriotic government in power?
Turkey Alone Boomed While Iran Lagged Post‑attack
Before the US-Israeli attack on Iran, the Iranian economy was doing slightly better than Iraq. Turkey was the only economy that BOOMED. https://t.co/9TQo3gHwn7
Asia Now Holds Six of World's Top Ten Stock Markets
The Asia Century 20 years ago, just 2 of the world's 10-largest stock markets came from Asia. Today, 6 out of the top 10 are from the region. China's equity market, which didn't make the top 10 list in 2006, is about...
Taiwan Set to Outsize India by 2026, Korea Follows
At this rate, Taiwan is likely to surpass India’s market in terms of size before the second half of 2026. Korea is not far behind Taiwan and could there soon after. https://t.co/Zq7jUioSjt
Currency Weaponization Forces Risk Managers to Rethink Sanctions
Weaponization of currency. As the global order becomes increasingly fragmented more countries will look to protect their interests from the failing US hegemony. This is increasingly important for global risk managers who need to address how their operations map against...
Iran Weaponizes Hormuz to Disrupt Oil, Raise Prices
Tanker in Strait of Hormuz hit by "unknown projectiles" Doesn't matter if it happened or not This is IRGC's MO & strategy You don’t shut Hormuz. You make it uninsurable. Flows slow. Prices rise. Control achieved. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #IranWar #EnergyIsTheEconomy #Macro
Sri Lanka's Economy Still Stagnant After 2019 Crisis
Until the currency crisis hit Sri Lanka in 2019, it was growing on par with India. Contrary to reports in the Western media, since the crisis and the IMF’s intervention, the economy has never recovered. https://t.co/HTdlhPOpEm
Trump Pledges US to Guide Neutral Ships Out of Gulf
President Trump said the US will begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf starting Monday. “This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran.” https://t.co/zfLjXmuuZ6
Trump Announces US Aid for Ships Exiting Hormuz Monday
*TRUMP SAYS US TO HELP SOME SHIPS LEAVE HORMUZ STARTING MONDAY Here comes your weekly dose of Monday hope-ium
China's Low Inflation, Strong Growth Boost Happiness Ranking
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, China ranks as the 15th HAPPIEST COUNTRY out of 178 countries. This is thanks to their low inflation combined with strong real GDP growth per capita. CHINA = GROWTH EXCEPTIONALISM. https://t.co/1r6CJ23Ozh
UAE Exits OPEC and OAPEC, Widening Gulf Rift
On top of leaving OPEC, the UAE has also left the (far less important) OAPEC, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries. The rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh/Kuwait City seems to be growing.
Trump's Sanction Lift Fuels Russia's War Profits
Russia is making a lot of money for its Ukraine war. Thanks to Trump lifting sanctions.
Emerging Markets Will Bear Shortages; West Pays Higher Prices
I am tired of hearing alarmism in the West about food and energy shortages. The reality, while sad, is that emerging market countries will bear the vast majority of these shortages. The West will simply pay higher prices to redirect supply away...
FPIs Sell ₹60,000 Cr Equity Amid Nifty Surge
Despite the massive Nifty and mid/smallcap moves in April 2026, FPIs continued selling at 60,000 cr. sales in equity: (Source: NSDL) https://t.co/Acr9NvlE78
Debunking the China Shock 2.0 Hysteria
Easily the best and most comprehensive takedown of the current "China Shock 2.0" hysteria that I've seen so far. (tl;dr in the screenshots) Strongly recommended. "Should we be scared of China's surpluses?" https://t.co/RSBXkN5WX3 https://t.co/z6TS8YwaNV
China Relies on Food Imports Far More than US or EU
China is far more dependent on imported food/feed than either the US or the EU. In a world of "food regimes", this is a highly unusual and unique development. https://t.co/5797bIqtl7
China May Begin Food Decoupling, FT Data Shows
Is China about to decouple on food? Riffing on a piece in the FT in the latest chartbook this morning. https://t.co/a0lMMdOOgC https://t.co/fqNWpHCXJi
India's Market Cap Lags Giants, Holds Massive Growth Potential
🇮🇳 INVEST IN INDIA 🇮🇳 Google's Market cap ($4.5 trillion) > the GDP of both Japan ($4.2 trillion) and India ($4.1 trillion). NVIDIA’s Market Cap ($4.91 Trillion) > the Market Cap of all listed Companies combined in India ($4.88 Trillion). Think about how...
Turkey's Money Supply Outpaces Target, Fueling Loose Policy
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: CBRT's Apr. survey has Turkey’s year-end inflation expectations at 27.53%/yr. T’s Money Supply grows at 39.9%/yr. That's well above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 23.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting T’s inflation target of 16%. T’S MONETARY POLICY = LOOSE. https://t.co/iHtsm4n7T8
Turkey Set to Become Largest Muslim-Majority Economy by 2026
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects Türkiye’s nominal GDP at $1.64T in 2026. That makes Turkey the largest among Muslim-majority economies. Turkey is ahead of both Indonesia ($1.54T) and Saudi Arabia ($1.39T). https://t.co/45COZWtS4b
China Openly Defies US Sanctions on Iranian Oil
China just drew a line. Blocked U.S. sanctions on teapots buying Iranian oil—and said “we’re not complying.” This isn’t evasion anymore. It’s defiance. #Oil #China #Iran #Sanctions #Geopolitics https://t.co/o4XeTSNbjb
Libya's Oil Revenues Triple, Currency Gains 34% Amid Iran War
Since the start of the Iran war, Libya’s oil revenues have nearly TRIPLED, from $1 billion in February to $2.9 billion in April. Not surprisingly, in the Feb-April period, the Libyan dinar has appreciated by 34% vs. the USD. LIBYA = ONE...
Iran's Rope‑a‑dope: Chokepoint Control Drains Opponents
I spoke w/ @davidlin_TV on why Iran will be hard to beat: "Iran is using Muhammad Ali's rope-a-dope strategy. They've taken a pounding and when the giant is exhausted, they'll land the knockout blow. Iran can do that with its control...
China Blocks US Sanctions on Five Iranian‑oil Firms
The Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 21 of 2026, announcing a blocking order against the United States' sanctions on five Chinese companies related to Iranian oil. https://t.co/xIHxp0dzEa
Iran's Resilience May Outlast US Amid Looming Inevitability
Iran knows how to absorb & manage economic pain. It's bet is that continuing the layered crises hurt the US more than Iran The gray swan in both warring parties' future is Simon Montefiore's "Momentous Inevitability" When what initially seems unlikely suddenly becomes...
Chinese Car Makers Accelerate Into South Africa’s Market
The "China Strength" isn’t just hitting South East Asia, 𝗶𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝗼. Just as Chinese companies are scaling across Asia, brands like Chery, GWM, and BAIC are entering, growing, and investing in the South African...
US Blockade Sparks Panic, Capital Flight, Rial Collapse
An underappreciated channel of how the US blockade works is to cause panic and capital flight in Iran. That's why the Rial is falling sharply. A country like Iran sees its currency as a status symbol, so they'll have resisted...
US Blockade Stalls Iran, Keeps Oil Prices Stable
Iran's most potent weapon is to cause an uncontrolled rise in oil prices and panic in global financial markets. It hasn't been able to do that, even though the US blockade of Iranian oil is now 3 weeks old. That's...
Bangladesh Surpasses Pakistan in GDP Per Capita Since 2008
#PAKWatch🇵🇰: Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, has outpaced Pakistan in GDP per Capita growth since 2008. IN PAK, THE MILITARY RUNS THE SHOW. PAKISTAN MILITARY MISMANAGEMENT = PAKISTAN IN THE TANK. https://t.co/8m2iqVCHhy
China Lifts Tariffs on All African Imports Except One
"China has now dropped tariffs on imports from every African country except 1" 😔 https://t.co/YKeyJNxXts
Strait Closure Threatens Escalating Pain for EMDEs
I wrote about this here. https://t.co/6nvDEd9BSJ The pain is felt most acutely now in EMDEs. But make no mistake, much more pain is headed our way if strait remains closed.