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Middle-Market Confidence Splits in 2026 as Tariffs and Supply Chains Weigh on High-Uncertainty Firms

The 2026 Certainty Project surveyed CFOs of U.S. middle‑market firms (revenues $100 M‑$1 B) and found overall uncertainty stable, but a sharp split between goods and services sectors. Tariff policy shifts and supply‑chain exposure pushed high‑uncertainty among goods producers up 27% year‑over‑year, while services firms saw modest declines. Companies with ≥40% overseas suppliers reported double the high‑uncertainty rate of domestic‑focused firms, and high‑uncertainty firms attributed a 6% revenue loss to uncertainty, leading to weaker profit margins and tighter investment plans. The outlook for 2026 diverges: low‑uncertainty firms anticipate robust growth, whereas high‑uncertainty firms brace for revenue declines and limited technology spend.