Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Blogs and Articles
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
In a recent "Debunking Economics" episode, Phil Dobbie and Professor Steve Keen argue that the AI boom is hitting an energy wall, as the sector’s soaring compute needs clash with a tightening global power supply. They trace the strain to geopolitical flashpoints, from Iranian leverage over the Strait of Hormuz to supply chain bottlenecks in rare‑earth mining. The hosts warn that without a coordinated response, AI‑driven growth could be throttled by electricity shortages and volatile fuel prices. Their analysis calls for policy makers and tech firms to rethink AI scaling strategies in light of the looming energy crunch.
Oil prices plunged more than $14 per barrel after the Iran‑Israel ceasefire announcement, marking the steepest weekly drop since the conflict began. Brent prompt futures settled near $97/bbl while Dated Brent spot hovered around $130 after hitting a record $144.46....
Canada added 14,100 jobs in March, the first gain this year, but the increase was modest and driven entirely by part‑time positions while full‑time jobs fell 1,100. The unemployment rate held at 6.7%, unchanged from February, reflecting persistent labour slack....
The article outlines how systematic trade cheating by China has eroded U.S. manufacturing, citing a loss of $230 billion and 2.1 million jobs since 2018. It details tactics such as intellectual‑property theft, transshipment via third‑party countries, and exploitation of de‑minimis exemptions that...
Canada’s March Labour Force Survey showed a modest 0.1% rise in employment, adding 14.1 k jobs to a total of 21.05 million. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%, while the layoff rate stayed at 0.6%, matching pre‑pandemic norms. However, the job‑finding...
Hungary’s parliamentary election on Sunday pits long‑time prime minister Viktor Orbán against opposition leader Péter Magyar. U.S. Vice President JD Vance flew to Budapest to back Orbán, while recent polls give the opposition a roughly 10‑point lead. The contest is...
The Strait of Hormuz remains technically open but is functionally constrained as Iran imposes coordination requirements and quasi‑tolls, turning the waterway into a tool of economic coercion. Shipping volumes have fallen sharply as insurers and operators avoid the heightened risk....
Iran has warned it will not resume talks or keep the Strait of Hormuz open until Israel stops bombing Lebanon, linking the conflict directly to its diplomatic leverage. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a looming corruption trial that...
The United States is set to ship a record 5 million barrels of crude per day from the Gulf Coast in May 2026, up from 4.9 mb/d in April and 3.97 mb/d in March. The surge follows a sharp decline in exports that...
Airports Council International (ACI) Europe warns that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger jet‑fuel shortages across the EU within weeks. About half of Europe’s jet fuel is sourced through the Persian Gulf, and prices have surged...
Mortgage rates held steady today, with the average rate barely moving from yesterday, effectively flat for the week. The market experienced unusually low volatility compared to the sharp swings seen in March. Analysts attribute this calm to steadier long‑term oil...
Next week (April 11‑17, 2026) brings a packed economic calendar, beginning with the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and a series of speeches by Fed officials such as Williams, Goolsbee and Barkin. Central banks in Singapore and Turkey will review monetary stances, while...
The U.S. federal debt now incurs over $1.2 trillion in annual interest, consuming roughly 23% of tax revenue and poised to become the largest budget line item. A "maturity wall" of $8‑9.6 trillion in Treasury securities will come due in 2026, forcing...
The latest standardized consumer‑sentiment composite fell to 47.6, missing the 51.6 consensus and down from 53.3 in the previous period. The chart tracks the University of Michigan, Conference Board and Gallup surveys from Q4 2019 through Q2 2026, all demeaned and scaled...
Iran has begun charging oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz a toll of roughly $1 per barrel payable in Bitcoin or stablecoins, turning the chokepoint into a crypto‑enabled revenue stream. The payments are invoiced by email and settled on‑chain...
The escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran has forced the Strait of Hormuz to close intermittently, tightening the global fertilizer supply chain and pushing prices to multi‑year highs. Brazil, which imports roughly 99% of its nitrogen, phosphate and...
In Chapter 9 of *For a New Liberty*, Murray Rothbard argues that inflation and business cycles stem from government‑driven money creation, not business greed. He links rising consumer demand to expanding money supply via seigniorage and claims central‑bank rate cuts create...
Egg prices fell to their lowest level since early 2022, marking a 12‑month decline, while the gas component of the CPI surged to its biggest monthly gain since 1967. The ISM Services PMI showed a 21st consecutive month of expansion,...
Leith van Onselen’s weekend briefing curates a global snapshot of macro‑risk, from the U.S. automatically enrolling eligible men in a draft pool to Iran’s plan to monetize the Strait of Hormuz with an estimated $64 billion annual toll revenue. The list...
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) announced its optical‑component order book is sold out through 2028, driven by massive capex from U.S. hyperscalers. CoreWeave secured a multiyear agreement to provide Anthropic with AI‑compute capacity for its Claude models, while Anthropic is also weighing...
Wall Street’s optimism over the tentative US‑Iran ceasefire lifted the S&P 500 to a five‑week high on April 9. Among equity factors, the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) surged 3.8% since the war’s onset, outpacing all peers. In contrast, low‑volatility...
The 72‑hour cease‑fire between Iran and Israel remains intact, but Israeli strikes continue in Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz stays largely closed. The United States is sending a delegation to Islamabad for the first high‑level talks with Iran since...
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased geopolitical tension, sending U.S. equity indexes higher. The S&P 500 is on track for its largest weekly gain since November, while the Dow Jones aims for its strongest weekly...
The 2026 National Trade Estimate Report identifies anti‑competitive market distortions (ACMDs) as the most consequential barriers to U.S. exports, foreign investment and e‑commerce. Applying Shanker Singham’s three‑pillar framework, the analysis ranks China as the largest systemic challenge, with Mexico’s energy...
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite a two‑week U.S.‑Iran cease‑fire, keeping global oil flows constrained and energy prices elevated. Gold futures have rebounded, the S&P 500 is trading sideways, and Bitcoin stays down year‑to‑date. In the housing sector, mortgage rates...
Oil prices surged toward the $100 level as doubts grew over a fragile cease‑fire between the United States, Iran and Israel. On April 9 U.S. crude jumped 6.8% to $100.79 a barrel while Brent rose 3.7% to $98.24, still well above...
A tentative cease‑fire in the Iran conflict has halted U.S. strikes, leaving President Trump without the regime‑change outcome he promised. The agreement mirrors the Obama‑era deal but comes at virtually no financial cost to the United States after billions spent...
China’s cross‑border payment system hit a record RMB 1.22 trillion ($178.5 bn) single‑day settlement amid heightened Middle‑East tensions, while regulators moved to block banks from creating hidden local‑government debt through agricultural loans. March saw Chinese car exports surge 73.7% to roughly 700,000...
Zimbabwe’s lithium sector is losing $300‑$400 per tonne to Australian rivals because of under‑declared grades, undervalued shipments and transfer‑pricing that divert profits abroad. In February 2026 the Mines Minister imposed an outright ban on raw lithium concentrate exports, demanding verification...
The IMF’s COFER data show the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign‑exchange reserves has slipped, driven by a weaker dollar and a rally in gold prices. When exchange‑rate effects are stripped out, the dollar’s share actually rose after 2024 Q4,...
JPMorgan has quantified damage to Gulf oil infrastructure after roughly six weeks of conflict, identifying about 60 energy assets targeted by drones and missiles. Of those, around 50 have sustained varying degrees of damage, ranging from minor repairs to significant...
Australia’s tax system increasingly shields wealthy retirees while shifting the fiscal burden onto younger workers. Retirees can hold up to AU$2 million ($1.3 million) in tax‑free super and still pay zero income tax, whereas the share of over‑65s paying tax has dropped...
Thoughtful Money moderated a live debate between Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, and Brent Johnson, founder of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, to assess the fallout from the US‑Israel war with Iran. The discussion explored whether...
HSBC’s latest geopolitical paper argues that a de‑escalation of global tensions will diminish the U.S. dollar’s safe‑haven appeal. With reduced risk, demand for the dollar should fall, allowing higher‑risk, undervalued currencies to rally. Emerging‑market (EM) currencies and those of energy‑importing...
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified Thursday as Iran warned it could abandon the US‑Iran cease‑fire after Israeli strikes in Lebanon, while the United States dispatched a delegation to Pakistan for talks. The fragility of the truce pushed oil...
The United States faces a projected cumulative deficit of $22 trillion over the next ten years, far exceeding official forecasts that assume no new wars or recessions. To fund this gap, the Federal Reserve will likely resort to massive balance‑sheet expansion,...
An attack on Saudi Arabia's East‑West pipeline knocked out roughly 700,000 barrels per day of throughput, tightening global oil supplies. Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exports surged to a record 43.3 million tonnes in March, driven by new projects and a redirection of...
The latest U.S. data releases show personal income excluding transfers slipped 0.1% month‑over‑month, falling short of Bloomberg’s +0.4% consensus. February household consumption also edged lower than analysts expected. Both metrics are among the two primary series the NBER Business Cycle...
Canadian lenders advanced a record CAD 38.3 billion (~US$28 billion) in uninsured mortgages in January, a 3.3% year‑over‑year rise. Variable‑rate mortgages surged to roughly 45% of new funding, up sharply from a July 2023 low of 4.9%. The Bank of Canada’s October rate cut...
The Substack post satirically examines how former President Donald Trump's hyperbolic threat to "destroy an entire civilization" could be interpreted by investors as a market risk. It references CNBC anchor Sara Eisen’s on‑air reaction and uses Star Wars imagery—short‑term out‑of‑the‑money...
Mortgage rates edged lower on April 10, 2026, with the average 30‑year fixed rate slipping to 6.39%, a 0.02‑percentage‑point drop from the previous day. The modest decline followed headlines of de‑escalation in the Israel‑Lebanon conflict, which temporarily eased oil‑price concerns....
Jobless claims remained exceptionally low, with initial filings edging up 16,000 to 219,000 and the four‑week moving average reaching 209,500. Continuing claims dropped sharply to 1.794 million, the lowest level in two years. Year‑over‑year figures showed a 1.8% decline in initial...
The US‑Israeli war on Iran has ended, but it accelerated a shift toward a multipolar world order. The article separates the enduring world system—finance, energy and the nation‑state—from the evolving political order that arranges states. Scholars and think tanks from...
A surge of government and private capital is accelerating rare‑earth production outside China, creating a short‑term supply gap but setting the stage for potential oversupply by the 2030s. Analysts say demand growth and security concerns drive current shortages, while massive...
A two‑week ceasefire in the Iran conflict eased some macro‑economic gloom, but copper prices remain elevated, with the LME three‑month contract peaking at $14,527.50 per metric ton in January. China, the world’s biggest copper consumer, cut its refined copper imports...
The Latin America briefing reports a wave of political and economic shifts across the region. Colombia’s Petro administration is rolling out subsidies and cheap loans to counteract the central bank’s high‑interest rates, while Brazil’s Lula plans a working‑hours reduction bill....
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2025 real GDP down to a 0.5% annualized gain, a 0.2‑percentage‑point drop from the second estimate and far below the Bloomberg consensus of no change. The downgrade marks the second consecutive negative revision...
Award‑winning political cartoonist Michael de Adder contributed a guest post titled “Both Sides Win,” featuring a new cartoon that pits an Iranian cleric offering control of the Strait of Hormuz against a triumphant Donald Trump clutching a trophy. The piece highlights...
Emerging‑market equities have finally outpaced U.S. stocks, delivering their widest performance gap in years after a decade‑plus of under‑performance. The Wealth Enterprise Briefing attributes the shift to stronger balance sheets, improved profitability and accelerating earnings momentum. The composition of the...
The global maritime trade network is undergoing a structural reset, pushing the Strait of Hormuz to the forefront as the most critical and fragile chokepoint. Earlier bottlenecks such as the Suez Canal and Panama Canal have seen capacity upgrades and...
