Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Pulse
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Every morning
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast projects March headline CPI rising at an annualized quarter‑on‑quarter rate of 5.2%‑5.9%, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast blends recent CPI and PCE releases with daily oil and gasoline price data, indicating inflation remains elevated despite modest easing. Energy prices, especially gasoline, continue to drive headline volatility. Meanwhile, the New York Fed’s consumer survey shows one‑year inflation expectations climbing to 3.4% from 3.0% in March, suggesting public price‑level concerns are resurging.
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast model indicates that March’s month‑over‑month CPI rose 0.84%, the strongest increase since June 2022, while core PCE inflation is projected at 0.23%. Market pricing on CME’s FedWatch shows a 63.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will...
In early April, Polymarket odds rose that the Iran‑backed Houthis would close Bab al‑Mandab and resume Red Sea attacks, but the author argues those odds are inflated. Since the February 2026 U.S.–Israeli airstrikes forced the closure of the Strait of...
The April 7, 2026 Daily Energy Report updates Western Canada’s crude export mix, showing Asian markets—especially China—still dominate shipments. China accounts for more than half of the total volume, while the United States’ western region sees fluctuating deliveries between 80,000 and 180,000...
In a private roundtable, Geopolitical Dispatch experts dissected the Iran war, tracing its roots to a disputed election that ignited mass protests and a harsh government crackdown. They examined how regional rivals and global powers—Russia, China, the United States, and...
The author warns that a war involving Iran could destabilize the petrodollar system, the cornerstone of U.S. Treasury financing. By threatening the dollar’s dominance in global oil markets, the conflict could undermine the fiscal foundation that supports Social Security, Medicare...
Former President Donald Trump warned that a failure to secure an Iranian agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a catastrophic energy crisis. The United States delivered a 15‑point peace plan via Pakistan on March 25, demanding concessions...
The European Central Bank has broadened its euro‑repo liquidity facility (EUREP) to offer funding to any central bank that provides high‑quality euro‑denominated collateral. This move underscores the ECB’s growing geopolitical role as the euro seeks to become a more prominent...
Australia has opened high‑level talks with China to secure refined fuel supplies as the US‑Israeli conflict in Iran pushes oil prices higher. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Premier Li Qiang agreed to boost regional energy security and seek an exemption...
Global liquidity has peaked and is now declining as base effects fade. Momentum is weakening despite support from the People’s Bank of China and the Federal Reserve. A stronger US dollar, heightened bond volatility, and reduced liquidity from the Bank...
The OECD’s latest data, updated to the September 2025 quarter, shows Australia’s real per‑capita household disposable income rose only 5.9% between 2015 and 2025. This is the weakest growth among major English‑speaking economies, trailing the United States (22.2%), Canada (9.5%) and...
Christine Desan argues that the Federal Reserve is not merely an independent regulator but the institutional embodiment of Congress’s constitutional prerogative to create money. The paper traces the historical shift of money‑making from monarchs to legislatures, showing how the U.S....
In the first quarter of 2026, 405 merchant vessels were ordered worldwide, with 73% of those contracts awarded to Chinese shipyards. The container segment showed an even sharper tilt: 122 new containerships were ordered and 98 were placed with Chinese...
Monday recorded the lowest U.S. equity trading volume of the year, with 14.8 billion shares and $663 billion in notional value changing hands. Investors remain cautious as they hedge heavily with index puts while the market watches a looming Trump‑imposed deadline on...
Rising oil prices above $100 per barrel have widened the cost gap between fossil‑fuel generation and nuclear power, with oil‑fired electricity costing roughly $185/MWh versus $4.6/MWh for uranium‑based fuel. Even cheap North American natural gas at $3.80/MMBtu translates to about...
Iran and the United States exchanged strikes overnight, dimming hopes for a diplomatic deal before the 8 p.m. deadline, while Asian equity markets posted modest gains. Samsung’s shares fell 2% despite robust earnings, and Anthropic announced its valuation has surged to...
The S&P 500 jumped 3.4% last week, its strongest gain since May, while the Nasdaq rose 4.4% and the Dow nearly 3%. The rally unfolded alongside a 12% weekly surge in WTI crude, which closed near $112 per barrel after...
The Federal Reserve is navigating a precarious policy landscape as the Iran war rattles energy markets and fuels inflation uncertainty. Officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammock, argue for keeping the policy rate steady while monitoring labor market and price...
A looming global commodity supply shock is triggered by the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, where a large share of LNG, fertilizers, helium, ammonia, sulfur, aluminum and petrochemical feedstocks historically transited. Qatar’s LNG exports, representing roughly 17‑20% of worldwide...
The Daily Feather’s latest post highlights a sharp dip in North American consumer confidence, driven by a cost shock that is straining both U.S. and Canadian service sectors. Graphs in the piece show U.S. services grappling with rising expenses, while...
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced a nine‑month push to make digital payments mandatory at gas stations and toll booths, aiming to curb the country’s reliance on cash. The plan hinges on the Bank of Mexico’s CoDi platform, which now offers zero‑commission...
A joint U.S.-Israeli military strike on Iran has triggered the largest oil supply disruption ever recorded, sending shockwaves through global energy markets. Europe, still recovering from the 2022‑23 crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now faces a second, acute...
The Macro Butler appeared on BFM 89.9 Malaysia to warn that stagflation has taken hold and market volatility is only beginning. He argued that the macro environment favors a straightforward trade: buy the dips in gold and energy‑producing stocks while...
The Q2 outlook centers on persistently high oil prices, which keep inflation expectations elevated and liquidity cautious. Higher crude costs ripple through transport, power and food, acting like a hidden tax on the economy. Metals diverge: gold is poised for...
The podcast explains how flags of convenience let ship owners register vessels in countries like Panama, Liberia, and the Marshall Islands, regardless of any real connection. This practice began in the 1910s to dodge U.S. Prohibition and labor laws, then...
An oil‑price shock linked to escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed the combined prices‑paid indexes for the March ISM Manufacturing and Non‑Manufacturing PMIs back to late‑2022 levels. The surge signals that both producer‑price and consumer‑price inflation are...
The firm warned early that U.S.-Iran tensions were rising and issued an oil forecast before most market participants took notice. Initial panic predicted an abrupt supply collapse, but the anticipated crash never materialized. The conflict has now entered a new...
Emerging‑market MSCI core and frontier indices rebounded from a two‑month, 15% sell‑off but closed the first quarter slightly negative, down 0.5% and 1.5% respectively. Despite the modest declines, both benchmarks outperformed the global market, which fell about 3% over the...
A recent video discussion with Kasper of USELINK Technical Analysis warns that tightening supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas are set to trigger a cascade of price increases across fertilizers, food commodities, and even interest rates. The analysis links...
The post imagines Iran telling President Trump that the Strait of Hormuz will stay open only if oil trades abandon the U.S. dollar in favor of euros, yuan or cryptocurrencies. Tehran claims it can rally dozens of nations to bypass...
The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) now trades about 23 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s median funds‑rate projections for both year‑end 2023 and the end of 2027. This premium emerged after the war in the Middle East shifted market...
American public opinion is shifting dramatically, with more voters now sympathizing with Palestinians than with Israel for the first time in polling history. AIPAC’s once‑dominant lobbying clout is eroding, prompting the group to rebrand through obscure shell organizations. Meanwhile, the...
A year after the so‑called "Liberation Day," the Yale Budget Lab finds that U.S. tariff costs are now passed through to consumers at a 76% rate, reaching 100% for many durable goods. Fed Chair Jay Powell estimates tariffs are adding...
The latest Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) chart shows the index hovering around 791 despite former President Donald Trump’s profanity‑filled Easter‑day threat to close a strategic strait. Analysts expected a sharp spike, but the data remained flat, suggesting market participants discounted...
Matt Ridley’s latest essay argues that modern prosperity traces back to two 1776 Glasgow breakthroughs: Adam Smith’s seminal "Wealth of Nations" and James Watt’s commercially viable steam engine. He contends that Smith’s doctrine of spontaneous order and Watt’s cheap, heat‑driven...
The article warns that the ongoing Iran conflict is reshaping financial reporting and outlooks for the U.S. services sector. It notes that 1Q earnings guidance across S&P 500 companies has reached a five‑year high, but uncertainty looms for 2Q as geopolitical...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES) nonfarm payroll series appears more volatile in 2026 compared with the ADP private‑sector estimate. The divergence cannot be clearly tied to the February nurses strike or to the new birth‑death...
The 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread rose 14 basis points through March 31, reaching a 21‑bp gain by April 3, while the DKW model’s five‑year inflation expectation increased 10 basis points over the same window. A simple conversion suggests that a 10‑bp rise...
The article argues that the Iran conflict, while unsettling, is less damaging to the real global economy than initially feared. However, it is accelerating a pre‑existing decline in global liquidity that began earlier this year. Higher oil prices and rising...
Boeing is facing its most severe tariff-related crisis with China as U.S. duties on Chinese aerospace components intensify. The dispute, rooted in a 2025 freeze on certain imports, has escalated, inflating Boeing's production costs and delaying aircraft deliveries to Chinese...
The U.S. Trade Representative released its annual Non‑Tariff Measures report, dramatically expanding the section on Mexico, the United States’ biggest commercial partner. The report reiterates long‑standing grievances—an opaque regulatory system and caps on foreign investment in the energy sector—framing them...
The ongoing war with Iran has entered a sixth week, keeping the Strait of Hormuz largely closed and disrupting roughly one‑fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. This chokepoint shutdown has pushed the Global Market Index down 4.8% and forced...
International Paper, the United States' largest cardboard box producer, announced the closure of two mills in Georgia, resulting in more than 1,000 job cuts. The move reflects a broader contraction in the American cardboard packaging sector, driven by weaker demand...
The war against Iran is exposing the vulnerability of high‑profile Eurasian trade corridors, from the Middle Corridor to the International North‑South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Iran‑China railway. Turkish Treasury Minister Mehmet Şimşek framed the conflict as a chance for Turkey...
The blog examines how the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict is reshaping oil market dynamics and influencing equity and macroeconomic outlooks. It updates previous scenario models to reflect heightened geopolitical risk, frequent threats to critical infrastructure, and the potential for supply disruptions....
The 1926 Hilton Young Commission, chaired by Edward Hilton Young, examined India’s currency and exchange‑rate challenges and famously advocated for a central bank. Its recommendations directly led to the Reserve Bank of India Act of 1934 and the RBI’s establishment in...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted oil and LNG shipments, with the last tankers for Europe and Asia expected to dock by mid‑April. Once those supplies run out, regional fuel reserves will shrink sharply, prompting analysts to...
Over the past five decades China pursued an investment‑led, export‑driven model, rapidly expanding manufacturing, infrastructure and urban housing, while India relied on a consumption‑led, services‑focused path. China’s GDP multiplied roughly 30‑fold versus India’s five‑fold, and its industrial sector now accounts...
Europe’s heavy regulatory and permitting hurdles are driving persistently high energy costs and slowing renewable deployment, while China’s fast‑track, state‑driven energy strategy is rapidly expanding capacity. In 2025 China added over 430 GW of wind and solar, pushing total power capacity...
Australian policymakers have slashed diesel excise and GST in an effort to blunt rising fuel costs for households. The authors argue that the tax cuts provide only temporary relief while ignoring the deeper problem of dwindling diesel supplies and rising...
