Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Pulse
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Every morning
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The Iran‑related war in the Middle East has effectively halted new sovereign bond issuance in Francophone Sub‑Saharan Africa, leaving the region with only $6 billion of fresh issuance—half of last year’s pace. Credit spreads have surged to 375 basis points, and a rating‑agency survey shows African governments must raise $155 billion this year, pushing total foreign debt to $1.2 trillion amid 4.5% growth, 3.5% deficits and 60% debt‑to‑GDP ratios. Recent placements in Benin, Cameroon, Ivory Coast and Congo Republic were liability‑management exercises, not new capital, and were heavily oversubscribed. The trend underscores a fragile financing landscape for French‑currency economies outside the euro framework.
U.S. federal debt has breached $39 trillion, up $2 trillion in eight months and $2.8 trillion since the July 2025 debt‑ceiling suspension. The Congressional Budget Office now projects debt climbing to about $64 trillion by 2036, roughly $2.4 trillion annually. This trajectory forces the Federal...
The note updates the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) using a statistical model calibrated on historical data, highlighting a deteriorating liquidity environment. It stresses that the GLI was already weakening due to capital flowing into the real economy, and the Iran...
The article warns of an imminent credit crisis as bond yields climb amid rising inflation expectations. It argues that expanding quantitative easing and war‑related spending will erode fiat currencies, prompting a historic wealth shift from creditors to debtors. Meanwhile, gold...
In early 2026, President Trump intensified pressure on Venezuela, leveraging oil sanctions as a tool to challenge the regime and signal broader economic intentions. The move was framed not merely as a geopolitical maneuver but as a strategic effort to...
Recent attempts by the IEA and the United States to flood the market with strategic petroleum reserves—totaling roughly 572 million barrels—failed to curb soaring oil prices. Even temporary waivers that allowed the sale of sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude did not...
The Macro Butler released a new podcast episode titled “Turning Dirt into Bullion: Chasing El Dorado,” summarizing the week’s newsletter. The episode explores how investors chase commodity‑linked returns, especially in gold and base‑metal mining. It highlights recent price spikes, speculative mining...
Traders now view crude oil as the primary market barometer, with price spikes translating directly into inflation expectations and policy signals. Goldman Sachs outlines a $150‑per‑barrel Brent scenario driven by a domino chain of supply constraints in the Gulf, creating...
Global liquidity, which peaked in the fall, is now on a downward trajectory, pushing markets into a risk‑off stance. Iranian geopolitical tensions and volatile oil prices have amplified investor anxiety, but the liquidity slowdown was already evident. Despite aggressive central‑bank...
Operation ‘Rage Flip’ erupted in late March, exposing extreme price volatility as a chart‑driven rally flipped a steep decline into a rapid surge. Traders on the floor, including Stephen Walton, described the move as a herd‑culling event that overwhelmed typical...
The United States has deployed Marine forces to the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions with Iran and signaling a broader strategic shift. The narrow waterway, vital for global oil shipments, now faces heightened militarization that could disrupt worldwide energy markets....
The Capital Spectator’s Book Bits (21 March 2026) spotlights two new titles. Barry Eichengreen’s *Money Beyond Borders* examines the U.S. dollar’s more‑than‑10 % slide against major currencies since early 2025 and evaluates scenarios that could dethrone it, emphasizing domestic policy missteps. Gary A. Hoover’s...
The author revisits the prevailing belief that the 21st century will be dominated by China, drawing parallels to the 1980s hype around Japan. While most Western observers still view China as an unstoppable economic and geopolitical force, the writer now...
The article argues that macro forces now dominate equity performance, yet most investors shy away because timing cycles is notoriously difficult. Historical examples from Keynes to Warren Buffett illustrate repeated macro‑timing failures. Howard Marks’ calibrated, probabilistic approach is presented as...
World Trade Organization ministers will convene next week to debate a long‑running reform agenda, yet the crucial issue of external transparency has been sidelined. Recent WTO reports, including a March 2026 facilitator paper, remain labeled “restricted” despite repeated calls for...
The Chartfest on 21 March 2026 highlighted a sharp escalation in global oil prices following the Middle‑East conflict, with benchmarks hitting record highs and strategic petroleum reserves under strain. Russia’s oil tax revenues surged as Urals prices peaked, while Qatar’s LNG exports...
Steve Keen and Phil Dobbie explore how compound interest fuels exponential economic growth while confronting the reality of finite planetary resources. They trace the historical condemnation of interest as usury across major religions and note its resurgence after the industrial...
The week of March 21‑27, 2026 features a sparse calendar of central‑bank meetings but a flurry of high‑profile speeches from Fed Chair Powell, BoE’s Taylor and Greene, and several ECB officials, fueling speculation of rate hikes later in the year. A slate...
Former President Donald Trump asserted that the United States will not pursue a ceasefire with Iran, insisting on unconditional surrender while emphasizing the U.S. military’s abundant ammunition and troop levels. He suggested that China and Japan could play a role...
Critics say the Liberal government is exposing Inuit communities to Chinese surveillance and economic dependence through unchecked Arctic investments. A report by the China Strategic Risks Institute warns that Beijing is leveraging infrastructure deals to gain data access and influence...
Industrial production nudged up 0.2% in February, marking a modest 1.4% year‑over‑year gain, a small but positive signal for the NBER recession gauges. Homebuilder confidence ticked higher in March yet remains historically low, with 37% of builders cutting prices. Gasoline...
U.S. tariffs have narrowed the trade deficit with China from roughly $290 billion to $202 billion, while shifting import volumes toward Vietnam, Taiwan, India and Mexico. The policy has spurred “origin‑washing,” where Chinese goods are mislabeled to evade duties, complicating enforcement. Manufacturing...
On March 20 2026 the Central Bank of Russia trimmed its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 15.0%, the seventh reduction since the October 2024 peak of 21%. The cumulative easing amounts to six percentage points, the deepest policy shift in over two...
Recent coverage underscores a convergence of fiscal and energy pressures in both the United States and Australia. In the U.S., the national debt has breached $39 trillion, while President Trump’s hard‑line stance on Iran and rising oil prices are being linked...
Malaysia announced it is terminating its customs agreement with the United States after a Supreme Court ruling declared the IEEPA‑based tariffs illegal. The original pact imposed a flat 19% tariff on most Malaysian exports, a rate now effectively cut in...
The U.S. dollar posted mixed moves, gaining against the yen and won while slipping versus the euro, sterling and Canadian dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose five basis points, outpacing modest increases in Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Germany, while all four...
The Iran war has so far left the US economy largely intact, with the Atlanta Fed nowcasting a 2.1% annualized Q1 GDP rise and the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index at 2.6%, suggesting stable activity through mid‑March. While global oil...
Seven months after the historic Alaska summit, the United States issued a 30‑day waiver permitting limited sales of sanctioned Russian crude, a move aimed at offsetting oil shortages caused by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The waiver signals...
Researchers Batuhan Koyuncu, Byeungchun Kwon, Marco Jacopo Lombardi, Fernando Perez‑Cruz and Hyun Song Shin unveiled BISTRO, a transformer‑based model designed to forecast macroeconomic time series. Trained on the Bank for International Settlements' extensive macro data, BISTRO acts like a ChatGPT...
In the latest MacroBusiness podcast, Nucleus Wealth CIO Damien Klassen dissected the fallout from the Iran‑Israel conflict and its ripple effects on global markets. He highlighted how surging oil prices, supply‑chain bottlenecks and heightened geopolitical risk are reshaping investor sentiment....
The Australian government is weighing a windfall tax on gas company profits, with Treasury conducting modelling ahead of the May 2026 budget. Finance Minister Jim Chalmers will ultimately decide whether to introduce the levy. Meanwhile, Energy Minister Katy Bowen says her...
The article warns that a simultaneous oil recession and rapid AI-driven automation could devastate U.S. manufacturing employment. It highlights how a structural shift—China’s 2003 WTO entry—already altered supply chains, and now a cyclical oil price collapse is intersecting with AI...
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Market Probability Tracker released a revised three‑month average SOFR outlook covering June 2026 through December 2028. The new projection lifts the expected rate path relative to the February 27 forecast, placing the current target range at 350‑375 basis points....
A live discussion hosted by Geopolitical Futures featured analysts Kamran Bokhari and Andrew Davidson alongside Chairman George Friedman to dissect the evolving war between the United States, Israel and Iran. The conversation centered on Iran’s protracted, asymmetric war strategy, U.S....
Gold prices plunged to $4,508 per ounce, a sharp drop from the $5,311 close on March 2, even as geopolitical tensions and U.S. budget deficits rise. The decline coincided with Pentagon officials confirming a potential $200 billion supplemental request for the Iran‑related...
Investigative journalist Greg Palast disclosed a confidential 323‑page plan drafted in 2004 that outlined how the United States and major oil firms intended to secure Iraq’s oil after the invasion. The document, obtained from the Heritage Foundation and a James Baker...
Peter Zeihan argues the U.S. dollar is set for a multi‑decade rise, driven by unrivaled naval power, favorable demographics, abundant food and energy resources, and a looming manufacturing expansion. In the near term, however, policy choices—tight immigration, high tariffs, regulatory...
The European Central Bank left policy rates unchanged on Thursday, echoing expectations, but warned that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could have a material impact on inflation across the euro area. The ECB’s statement highlighted heightened uncertainty around energy supplies and...
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) posted a 0.7% headline increase, with core and core‑core measures both rising 0.5%, outpacing market forecasts. The stronger‑than‑expected numbers underscore lingering inflationary pressure despite recent easing in consumer price trends. The post uses the...
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026‑2030) repositions the country for a hostile international environment, emphasizing geopolitical resilience over the optimistic growth narrative of previous plans. Domestically, the plan pushes for technological self‑reliance and reinforces traditional industries such as metallurgy and shipbuilding,...
State‑owned COSCO Shipping Ports announced a push to grow its global terminal footprint, focusing on Southeast Asia, South‑America and Africa to mitigate rising geopolitical risks such as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, China Merchants Shekou reported a 74.7%...
Iranian forces launched a missile that struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas plant, causing extensive damage and prompting fears of a prolonged supply shock. The attack follows Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars field, escalating a...
The latest Consumer Price Index showed a modest 0.3% monthly increase, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.2%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious stance, warning against premature rate cuts. The data sparked a 1.2% pullback in the S&P...
A new VoxEU column by Jiang, Lustig, Van Nieuwerburgh and Xiaolan examines three centuries of U.S. and U.K. war and pandemic episodes. Their analysis shows that sovereign bonds, traditionally viewed as safe havens, have repeatedly suffered large real‑term losses during...
The five‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 2.66%, marking a 0.26‑percentage‑point increase since the onset of the war. The rise is captured alongside the DKW model’s inflation expectations, both plotted against the Treasury spread. A parallel chart links...
IMF economists published a paper quantifying how shipping delays translate into consumer price inflation. By constructing a port‑to‑port shipping time index from AIS maritime data and linking it to granular trade and price information, they find that a 100‑hour delay...
Checkonchain announced a new interview series with The Bitcoin Layer, featuring a split discussion between macro analyst Nik Bhatia and on‑chain specialist James. Nik will dissect current liquidity, the US‑Iran conflict, oil prices, and dollar strength, while James will evaluate...
Gold is forming a double‑top pattern despite strong support levels, prompting questions about its safe‑haven reliability. The article argues that gold’s protective role is linked to hedging against currency debasement, not crisis‑driven risk aversion. In market turmoil, liquidity dries up,...
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the headline unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in February, up from 4.1% in January, even as 48,900 jobs were added. Monthly hours worked slipped 0.2%, hinting that the job gains may be superficial....
Israel launched an airstrike on Iran’s South Pars gasfield, a hub that generates roughly 20% of the nation’s electricity. Tehran retaliated by threatening attacks on oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Gulf region. The exchange is part of a broader...
