Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
New Zealand’s fourth‑quarter GDP expanded only 0.2% quarter‑on‑quarter, missing the 0.4% consensus, while annual growth held at 1.3% year‑on‑year, below the 1.7% forecast. Both production‑based (0.2% q/q) and expenditure‑based (0.1% q/q) measures signalled a sharp slowdown in domestic demand. The weaker output underscores lingering cost pressures and higher interest rates that have dampened household consumption and investment. The data places the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in a delicate position as it balances inflation concerns with a fragile recovery.
Mortgage rates rebounded Wednesday, climbing to the highest levels seen in several months after three rapid repricings. A stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index lifted inflation expectations, while a $6 jump in crude oil pushed bond yields higher. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s...
The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing headline inflation of 1.8% and a softening core CPI. Governor Tiff Macklem repeatedly emphasized uncertainty, flagging dual‑shock risks from higher oil prices and the Iran conflict alongside volatile...
The Cleveland Federal Reserve released a nowcast for March headline CPI that blends traditional CPI and PCE data with daily oil and weekly gasoline prices. Rising oil prices—Brent near $109 and gasoline at $3.72 per gallon—are pushing the nowcast upward....
The Chart Summit 2026 – Commodities webcast, led by veteran analyst Jason Perz, spotlights the emerging leg of the commodity cycle. Perz argues that macroeconomic forces and currency dynamics are removing traditional price ceilings for key metals and energy assets....
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the 5.25%‑5.50% range, reaffirming its projection that rates will remain at this level through 2026. The decision followed a two‑day policy meeting marked by cautious deliberations but no...
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has constrained tanker flows, cutting roughly 20% of global LNG supply. The shutdown of Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant and reduced transit capacity have driven sharp price spikes across Asian and European markets. Approximately 90%...
The Federal Open Market Committee convened an atypical session this week, delivering a surprise 25‑basis‑point rate increase despite a modest dip in headline inflation. The decision broke with the consensus of many analysts who had expected a pause, reflecting the...
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy rate at the 3.50%‑3.75% range, marking a second consecutive pause after three 25‑basis‑point cuts in late 2025. Markets have already priced in the hold, so investors will focus on Chair Jerome...
U.S. wholesale price growth accelerated sharply in March 2026, marking the third consecutive month of above‑trend increases according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Wholesale Price Index rose 0.7% month‑over‑month and 4.2% year‑over‑year, the fastest pace since 2022. The...
Dr. Ed’s latest webcast, featuring Eric Wallerstein, assesses the impact of the Strait of Hormuz tension on energy markets. He argues that the perceived blockade is less severe, with oil supply disruptions roughly half of worst‑case estimates. Iran’s decision to...
Markets are navigating heightened uncertainty as the Middle East conflict eases oil flow, pushing WTI back above $94, while the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada are set to keep policy unchanged. The Fed’s updated dot‑plot still signals a single...
A potential war in Iran is sending shockwaves through the Asia‑Pacific as the region’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil, LNG and petrochemicals makes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz a catalyst for inflation, supply‑chain strain and strategic uncertainty....
The Strait of Hormuz channels about 50% of the world’s sulphur, a key feedstock for sulphuric acid used in nickel, copper and cobalt processing. Indonesia, which produces over half of global nickel, imports roughly 75% of its sulphur from the...
President Trump indicated his long‑awaited summit with Xi Jinping could be pushed back five to six weeks, likely occurring after April 20, as China signals tentative approval but remains cautious amid the ongoing war in Europe. A senior Chinese delegation...
U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that, effective March 20, 2026, it will begin canceling Importer of Record (IOR) numbers for declarations submitted after 12:01 a.m. ET. Importers must now provide an updated CBP 5106 form, government‑issued photo ID, EIN verification...
The U.S. Navy has transferred the Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) Tripoli, together with THAAD and Patriot air‑defense systems, from the Indo‑Pacific to the Middle East. Prediction‑market data show the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic has...
The latest balance‑of‑payments data shows that when the U.S. goods trade balance is adjusted for gold, the deficit expands beyond the headline figure. The red line in the chart, representing the gold‑adjusted balance, sits noticeably lower than the blue unadjusted...
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s 2025 budget will outspend the outgoing Trudeau government by roughly $68 billion over the 2025‑2030 period, according to a Fraser Institute analysis. The plan doubles projected deficits to $321.7 billion, compared with Trudeau’s $154.4 billion, and pushes total federal...
The article outlines a shift toward "distributed deterrence," where precision‑strike weapons such as cheap missiles and long‑range drones enable smaller states to threaten critical infrastructure far beyond their borders. Declining costs and mobile launch platforms make these capabilities accessible to...
Australian mining magnate Gina Rinehart’s rare‑earth holdings have surged to over $2.4 billion, driven by a global push to diversify away from China. The portfolio, once a modest side‑investment, now represents a significant portion of her $25 billion wealth. China still controls...
The interview with Peter Alexander, founder of Z‑Ben Advisors, challenges the polarized Western view of China by highlighting a pragmatic, on‑the‑ground assessment. He argues that China is not on the brink of collapse nor poised for outright global domination, but...
The outbreak of war in Iran has shattered the previously bullish consensus on Wall Street, prompting professional money managers to slash global growth forecasts and shift heavily into cash. Cash allocations among hedge funds, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds...
The Daily Feather’s new post spotlights the oddball nicknames of U.S. colleges, zeroing in on Wichita State University’s “Shockers.” It traces the Shockers moniker to early 20th‑century wheat‑harvesting students who earned a reputation for “shocking” the grain. The article pairs...
Researchers using Finnish administrative data examined how the 2022 European energy crisis affected household behavior. An eightfold jump in electricity prices revealed stark income‑based heterogeneity: high‑income families sharply reduced usage, while low‑income households cut consumption little and instead faced higher...
Geopolitical events are increasingly moving directly onto corporate profit and loss statements, reshaping input costs, working capital and supplier access. Most firms lack visibility beyond tier‑one suppliers, forcing them to scramble when crises emerge. Without a structured risk‑assessment framework, companies...
Kevin Hassett highlighted on CBS Face the Nation that oil futures are pricing a rapid decline in oil prices, even as spot gasoline prices surge due to current Strait disruptions. The forward curve suggests Brent will not revert to its pre‑war...
Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles has stopped short of dismissing fuel rationing as the Iran‑Israel conflict drags into its third week, stoking concerns over domestic supply. While officials claim there is no immediate shortage, global oil markets are already feeling pressure...
The Iran‑Israel war has reignited fears of a major disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending shockwaves through global markets. Gold futures remain near $5,013 per ounce while silver hovers around $81, reflecting heightened volatility but limited...
China’s January‑February 2026 data showed a surprising rebound, with industrial production climbing to 6.3% year‑on‑year, up from 5.2% in December, driven by stronger‑than‑expected exports. Fixed‑asset investment also turned positive, moving from a 13% contraction in December to a 1.8% expansion....
The Strait of Hormuz shut completely after Iran’s retaliation, halting all commercial traffic and stranding nearly a fifth of the global tanker fleet. While crude oil found temporary relief through Saudi and UAE pipelines and strategic reserves, other energy streams—LNG,...
The Gulf region is sliding into recession as refined fuel prices surge amid tightening global energy markets. Distillates such as diesel and jet fuel have risen far faster than crude, with some products nearly tripling in cost. The sharp price...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is under market pressure to increase interest rates as inflation remains sticky. The author argues the RBA should refrain from a hike, citing a historical parallel where the European Central Bank raised rates in...
Polymarket now prices a 98% chance that Fed governor Stephen Miran will dissent from the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, up from 89.1% after the Iran war began. The odds surge highlights heightened market focus on any deviation from the committee’s...
Global consumer‑price inflation peaked in 2022‑23, ranging from 3 % in Switzerland to 85 % in Turkey. The surge was traced to lingering supply‑chain bottlenecks after pandemic restrictions lifted, which outpaced the gradual return of supply. Since then most economies have entered...
Kevin Hassett told CBS’s Face the Nation that the US economy will not be harmed by the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, citing abundant domestic oil production and a steep decline in futures‑based oil prices. He argued the temporary 20% disruption to global...
In the sixty weeks since President Trump’s inauguration, long‑standing military and economic alliances that underpinned post‑World War II peace have begun to fray. The author argues that Trump’s fiscal mismanagement, confrontational diplomacy, and overextension of U.S. forces have weakened America’s global...
Chinese trade negotiator Li announced a preliminary consensus with the United States covering tariff extensions, trade mechanisms, and economic concerns. Both sides emphasized stability of tariff levels and raised issues such as Section 301 probes and recent U.S. restrictive measures....
Former President Donald Trump has largely diverted his attention away from China and President Xi, despite a scheduled meeting later this month. Observers note Trump’s tendency to concentrate on single, transactional issues, leaving broader geopolitical concerns sidelined. The article argues...
US equity futures nudged higher on Monday, led by Meta’s rally after the company disclosed sweeping AI‑driven workforce cuts. Meanwhile, crude oil lingered near the $100‑a‑barrel mark as Strait of Hormuz shipments remained disrupted, keeping risk appetite muted. Elevated energy...
President Trump has pressed allies for US warship escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, but Japan and Australia have declined the request. Drone strikes have forced a shutdown of oil loading at Fujairah and disrupted Dubai airport operations, prompting Saudi...
Inflation surged to 9.1% in mid‑2022 due to pandemic disruptions and the Russia‑Ukraine war, then fell sharply in 2023 despite unemployment staying low. The traditional sacrifice ratio—unemployment needed to cut inflation—proved near zero, challenging Phillips‑curve expectations. Tariff hikes in 2025‑26...
Iceland’s new Social Democratic government has scheduled an August referendum to decide whether to restart EU accession talks, with a Gallup poll showing 52% support for re‑engagement. The island already implements roughly three‑quarters of EU law through its EEA and...
President Trump signaled he may delay his upcoming Beijing summit as the United States intensifies its war against Iran, reshaping the fragile US‑China dialogue. He warned NATO that a lack of European assistance in securing the Strait of Hormuz could...
The article notes that oil, when priced in gold, sits at only 26% of its long‑term value, implying a potential 300% rebound to pre‑Bretton Woods levels last seen in 2014. It warns that a shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz...
An opinion piece suggests the U.S. Treasury intervene in the Strait of Hormuz oil bottleneck by purchasing trapped tankers and cargo at a fixed price and reselling them at market rates, with the Navy providing escort. The author likens the...
Oil prices are hovering near multi‑year highs as the Strait of Hormuz remains a bottleneck, keeping the energy risk premium elevated. The surge in crude costs has reinforced the U.S. dollar’s dominance, with the Dollar Index perched at the top...
The chart shows U.S. petroleum intensity of real GDP falling sharply since its 1973 peak, with overall energy intensity also on a long‑term decline. This reduction means that oil price shocks now have a muted effect on output and inflation...
Chinese economic releases for January‑February showed stronger‑than‑expected industrial production (6.3% YoY) and retail sales (2.8% YoY), while house prices slipped further and unemployment edged up to 5.3%. The data, tempered by Chinese New Year effects, arrived amid heightened geopolitical tension...
Chinese primary‑market property transactions have steadied after the Lunar New Year, but the broader year looks weak. The secondary housing market remains sluggish, with daily transaction volumes lagging across major cities. New‑energy vehicle (EV) sales slipped in February, falling below...
