Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Blogs and Articles
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Goldman Sachs’ tracking model nudged its February core PCE inflation nowcast higher, while the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast suggests lower instantaneous inflation for February and March. The two estimates diverge because Goldman Sachs blends judgmental inputs with data, whereas the Cleveland Fed relies on a limited set of time‑series such as CPI, PCE, oil and gasoline prices. The instantaneous inflation metric, derived from Eeckhout’s (2023) methodology, highlights month‑to‑month price dynamics that differ from traditional annualized rates. These contrasting signals arrive as the Federal Reserve weighs its next policy move.
DataTrek co‑founder Jessica Rabe warned that the financial sector’s weakness reflects dual concerns: exposure to private‑credit assets and the prospect of higher oil prices slowing the U.S. economy. She noted that historically, a rapid doubling of oil prices within a...
The S&P 500’s aggregate valuation masks a stark split between the high‑flying Magnificent 7 and the rest of the market. Forward price‑to‑earnings ratios for the Magnificent 7 are significantly higher than those for large‑, mid‑, and small‑cap indices. While the Magnificent 7 index has...
The Federal Reserve is confronting a new supply‑side shock that threatens to revive inflationary pressures as geopolitical tensions persist. Central banks are diverging, with Australia likely to raise rates again while Europe and the UK pause policy tightening. This split...
In "The Age of AI and Our Human Future," Henry Kissinger, Eric Schmidt and Daniel Huttenlocher argue that artificial intelligence is reshaping geopolitics, ethics and human identity, demanding a partnership rather than replacement. The review by futurist Ian Khan highlights...
Governments are scrambling to curb soaring oil prices after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut roughly 20% of global supply. The International Energy Agency authorized a historic release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, equivalent to about 20...
War‑driven uncertainty in Europe and the Middle East has pushed the 10‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) real yield to its highest level in a decade, setting the stage for this week’s Treasury auction. The surge reflects heightened inflation expectations and...
Economist Steve Keen has released a new video commentary on the Iran war, outlining its likely economic and geopolitical repercussions. He apologizes for recent posting gaps, citing a heavy workload and progress on his forthcoming book, "How Economists Will Destroy...
Escalating Gulf tensions have reignited a sharp rally in oil, with some analysts speculating prices could approach $250 per barrel. The piece ties this surge to a concurrent rise in gold, arguing that the gold‑oil ratio serves as a key...
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q4 2025 shows a modest slowdown, trailing the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projection. Goldman Sachs, assuming a 21‑day Strait of Hormuz disruption, trims its growth estimate from 2.5 % to 2.2 % year‑over‑year. The SPF survey, collected...
The week ahead is dominated by high‑profile diplomatic and monetary events, starting with a US‑China meeting in Paris that will discuss extending the tariff truce and a 25 million‑ton soybean purchase agreement. Nvidia’s GTC will showcase its Vera Rubin GPU roadmap...
The outbreak of the Iran war has jolted East Asian markets, exposing the region’s heavy reliance on Middle‑East oil imports. A trade‑risk ranking flags the Philippines and Vietnam as the most vulnerable, while China continues sourcing from Tehran and Russia...
This week’s Stay Tuned lineup features former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein discussing the economic fallout of the Iran war, lessons from the 2008 crisis, market outlook and why CEOs should steer clear of politics. A separate episode examines the...
Betting markets have lifted the implied probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 following the onset of Gulf War III, signaling heightened concern over an oil‑price shock. Although the implied recession odds have eased slightly since their peak, they remain well...
EURUSD slipped another 200 pips this week, marking a second consecutive decline as market expectations shift away from further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The move reflects heightened inflation risk and a stronger dollar, prompting analysts to apply Elliott Wave theory...
The latest business‑cycle data show Q4 GDP growth slashed by roughly half compared with the prior estimate, while consumer spending missed consensus by almost 0.5 percentage point on an annualized basis. Revised non‑farm payroll figures indicate a modest downward bias...
The weekly recap highlights a sharp rise in oil to $99 amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, pressuring equities and widening the S&P 500 correction. Gold and silver have pulled back 10% and 33% respectively, but the author views these moves as...
In the debut episode of Gundlach Unlocked, DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and that long‑term rates have stalled despite recent cuts. He also sees the U.S. dollar entering a...
Rick Rule warns that renewed oil price volatility is inflating mining operating costs and reshaping the sector’s risk profile. He draws parallels to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, noting how energy shocks can trigger profound real‑asset cycles. The interview also...
The Pentagon has ordered the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, about 2,200 Marines, and the USS Tripoli to the Middle East to neutralize Iran’s missile and naval threats to global shipping. The deployment signals a shift from a rapid‑response posture to...
Iran’s recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints, prompting a sharp rise in global crude prices. While the United States sources only a modest fraction of its oil from the...
The EU’s economy barely grew in Q4 2025, posting a 0.2 percent quarterly increase. Although inflation has eased and central banks trimmed rates, growth momentum stalled. A sharp 40 percent rise in Brent crude and record‑high gas prices, driven by the ongoing...
Analysts warn that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive crude oil prices well above $150 per barrel, far exceeding historical peaks. Historical data from 2011‑2014 shows oil consumption grew despite high prices, underscoring demand resilience. Economists...
Statistics Canada reported a 0.4% drop in employment in February, wiping out 84,000 jobs—all full‑time—bringing the labour force back to September 2025 levels. Private‑sector employment fell 0.5% and has shown no growth over the past year, while all net gains...
The ongoing Middle East conflict is driving oil prices up, reviving concerns about a U.S. recession. Economists note that higher energy costs could reignite inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to balance rate cuts against potential hikes. Multiple geopolitical flashpoints—from Iran...
The Office for National Statistics reported that UK GDP growth has essentially flatlined, signalling a stagnant economy. An analysis by Frontier Economics suggests that fully implementing the UK‑EU summit commitments could add roughly 2 percent to annual growth, a figure the...
A surge in global oil prices after President Trump’s attack on Iran has pushed Massachusetts gasoline prices up 45 cents per gallon, costing drivers over $2.4 million daily. The state consumes about 6 million gallons per day, so the extra expense totals...
The latest Leaders‑Laggards analysis highlights a pronounced "war premium" as energy and defense equities outperform amid $100‑plus oil and deteriorating payroll data. Defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples are rallying, creating a clear rotation away from riskier assets....
In 1974 Henry Kissinger secured an informal pact that required Saudi Arabia to price oil exclusively in U.S. dollars, creating the petrodollar system that channeled massive dollar surpluses into Treasury securities. The arrangement underpinned America’s ability to run large fiscal deficits...
U.S. core inflation accelerated to a 3.1% year‑over‑year increase in January 2026, the fastest pace in nearly two years. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the data after a delay caused by the prolonged government shutdown. This measure, the Fed’s...
The United States announced a 30‑day suspension of sanctions on Russian crude that is currently at sea, aiming to cushion the economic repercussions of the war in Iran. The temporary relief covers roughly 100 million barrels of Russian oil in transit,...
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2024 GDP growth to roughly 0.5% annualized, half of the initially reported rate. The slowdown coincides with persistently high inflation, reinforcing concerns of a stagflationary environment. Business leaders across diverse sectors report...
In a recent interview with Adam Taggart, the author warned that market optimism masks deepening fragilities, especially in private credit. He highlighted rising redemptions and gating in private credit funds as a precursor to a broader credit event. While equity...
The article argues that the West is ill‑prepared for a modern war economy, especially in critical‑metal supply chains. It highlights that the United States has produced virtually no tungsten or antimony in the past year, while the EU retains a...
The post argues that the United States should prioritize domestic oil and gas, especially Canadian supplies, over reliance on China for energy security. It highlights how Middle‑East conflicts, such as the recent Iran war, make imported crude volatile. The author...
The market is adjusting to heightened geopolitical risk after coordinated US‑Israeli strikes on Iran, which have effectively shut the Hormuz Strait and intensified regional drone attacks. These developments are pushing oil prices higher for a longer period, bolstering the U.S....
The United Kingdom’s “triple lock” pension rule forces state pensions to rise faster than wages, regardless of economic conditions. This automatic uplift adds a growing burden to the nation’s fiscal balance as the population ages and pension outlays swell. Despite...
An IMF study of 132 central‑bank governor transitions across 28 economies finds that politically motivated appointments erode independence and alter macro outcomes. Such governors are linked to higher, more volatile inflation and cause professional forecasters to anticipate dovish policy. Following...
Iran has systematically transformed the Strait of Hormuz into a de‑facto geopolitical checkpoint, deploying naval mines, missile batteries and heightened patrols to control one of the world’s most vital oil arteries. The move coincides with escalating regional tensions and a...
Germany’s industrial heartland in Baden‑Württemberg is experiencing a sharp decline, with trade‑tax revenues halving and major manufacturers cutting thousands of jobs. The article attributes the downturn to aggressive green policies and state subsidies that divert capital from private investment. Election...
Former President Donald Trump announced a temporary suspension of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, aiming to flood the market with cheaper crude and curb the surge that pushed Brent toward $100 a barrel. The move follows recent U.S. military actions...
Oil prices rebounded to roughly $100 a barrel, dragging U.S. equities and bonds lower as the conflict between Israel, the U.S., and Iran intensifies. The S&P 500 has slipped 4.4% from its January 27 peak and the Nasdaq 6.4% from...
Rising energy costs are pushing nitrogen fertilizer prices higher as natural gas, the primary feedstock for the Haber‑Bosch process, spikes. The price surge cascades through urea, ammonium nitrate and ammonia, inflating the entire fertilizer supply chain. Higher input costs translate...
Recent data show the US labor market losing momentum while consumer spending eases, indicating a cooling domestic economy. Simultaneously, heightened tensions with Iran have pushed oil prices higher, adding inflationary pressure. Legal challenges over tariff revenue and growing Wall Street...
Australian analyst David Llewellyn‑Smith warns that the 2026 oil price shock could depress house prices. He notes a rule of thumb: each 10 % rise in oil adds roughly 0.4 % to inflation. Higher inflation is expected to lift mortgage rates and...
Retail flows and options volumes have moderated over the past year, signaling reduced market activity. In the United States, fertilizer prices surged 29% month‑to‑date after the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted supply chains. Futures markets now price the December 2026...
Market‑based platforms are signaling a notable recession risk for the United States by the end of 2026. Polymarket’s probability sits at 32%, down from a recent 37% peak, while Kalshi’s odds have climbed to 31.6% after a February surge. Goldman...
The Federal Reserve’s rate‑setting calculus is increasingly tied to volatile energy prices, which have surged amid geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. Market participants are using SOFR and Fed Funds futures to price the likelihood of upcoming policy moves, with recent...
The recent surge in global natural‑gas prices has laid bare Britain’s over‑reliance on imports, costing households roughly three times what Americans pay. The author argues that a decade‑old decision to ban on‑shore shale fracking has left the UK vulnerable, missing...
Core CPI remained mild in January‑February 2026, but the Fed‑preferred core PCE is projected to outpace it sharply. Economists expect core PCE to rise about 3.1% year‑over‑year, creating the widest CPI‑PCE gap in decades. The divergence stems from differing weightings,...
